BillsWin
11-05-2008, 11:08 AM
I wasn't confident the Bills would cover against the Jets. They were a big favorite expected to beat a struggling New York squad. Because Buffalo is so inexperienced, accomplishing that feat was too much to ask.
This is a better spot for the Bills, going on the road as an underdog against an overrated Patriots squad.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: So, what makes New England so overrated? Well, their entire back eight is slow and can't cover anyone. Peyton Manning, who has struggled all year, was nearly flawless against the Patriots on Sunday night. Trent Edwards will be able to throw all over New England's secondary, as Lee Evans' speed will cause problems for a very archaic defense.
Marshawn Lynch really struggled against the Jets, mustering just 16 yards on nine carries. I don't expect Lynch to snap out of his funk; he apparently has the flu and the Patriots haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3. New England's defensive strength is up front, and you can see it by that statistic.
With Lynch reeling, I expect the Bills to use Fred Jackson more. The quicker Jackson is a better matchup against the Patriots anyway, especially coming out of the backfield.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Another reason New England is overrated is because of Matt Cassel. Sure, Cassel is doing a fine job taking care of the football, but he can't get the ball downfield. All of his throws are short, Chad Pennington-like junk passes. Luckily, Cassel has Randy Moss and Wes Welker split out wide, so they're making him look much better than he really is.
After struggling versus San Diego, Cassel has thrived the past three weeks. Why is that? The answer is obvious - his three opponents, Denver, St. Louis and Indianapolis, are all completely inept against the run. All three of those teams had to sell out to stop Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon and whomever else the Patriots have lining up in the backfield.
The Bills won't have to do that because of Marcus Stroud. Stroud's presence has helped Buffalo's defensive unit limit opposing rushers to just 3.8 yards per carry (whereas the Broncos, Rams and Colts allow 5.4, 5.2 and 4.3, respectively). With Cassel stuck in long-yardage situations, he won't have as much luck moving the chains this week.
RECAP: Though the Patriots are favored by four, I'll continue to contest that the Bills are the superior team. This is a great spot for them because they're "not supposed to win," so there won't be any pressure on them like there was last week.
Speaking of the spread, why is it only four? Based on New England's impressive run the past three weeks, and Buffalo's losses to the Jets and Dolphins, public perception is that the Patriots are vastly superior. If Vegas wanted equal action on this game, the line would have been six or seven. Instead, it's a low four, indicating that the house wants as much money on New England as possible.
I'll buy the Bills low and sell the Patriots high. Buffalo wins outright and seizes control of the AFC East.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
I don't need to tell you that this is a big game for both teams.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills. http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/star.gif http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/star.gif
No surprise that the public is fading the Bills this week. Percentage of money on New England: 80% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots. http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/star.gif History: Patriots have won 14 of the last 15 meetings.
Losing Coach: Dick Jauron is 0-3 ATS as an underdog immediately after losing as a favorite.
Bills are 15-10 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
Patriots are 25-12 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
Patriots are 39-30 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Opening Line: Patriots -4.
Opening Total: 41.
Weather: .
Week 10 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Patriots 13
Bills +4 (4 Units)
Under 41.5 (.5 Units)
http://walterfootball.com/freenflpicks2008_10early.php
This is a better spot for the Bills, going on the road as an underdog against an overrated Patriots squad.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: So, what makes New England so overrated? Well, their entire back eight is slow and can't cover anyone. Peyton Manning, who has struggled all year, was nearly flawless against the Patriots on Sunday night. Trent Edwards will be able to throw all over New England's secondary, as Lee Evans' speed will cause problems for a very archaic defense.
Marshawn Lynch really struggled against the Jets, mustering just 16 yards on nine carries. I don't expect Lynch to snap out of his funk; he apparently has the flu and the Patriots haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 3. New England's defensive strength is up front, and you can see it by that statistic.
With Lynch reeling, I expect the Bills to use Fred Jackson more. The quicker Jackson is a better matchup against the Patriots anyway, especially coming out of the backfield.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Another reason New England is overrated is because of Matt Cassel. Sure, Cassel is doing a fine job taking care of the football, but he can't get the ball downfield. All of his throws are short, Chad Pennington-like junk passes. Luckily, Cassel has Randy Moss and Wes Welker split out wide, so they're making him look much better than he really is.
After struggling versus San Diego, Cassel has thrived the past three weeks. Why is that? The answer is obvious - his three opponents, Denver, St. Louis and Indianapolis, are all completely inept against the run. All three of those teams had to sell out to stop Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Kevin Faulk, Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon and whomever else the Patriots have lining up in the backfield.
The Bills won't have to do that because of Marcus Stroud. Stroud's presence has helped Buffalo's defensive unit limit opposing rushers to just 3.8 yards per carry (whereas the Broncos, Rams and Colts allow 5.4, 5.2 and 4.3, respectively). With Cassel stuck in long-yardage situations, he won't have as much luck moving the chains this week.
RECAP: Though the Patriots are favored by four, I'll continue to contest that the Bills are the superior team. This is a great spot for them because they're "not supposed to win," so there won't be any pressure on them like there was last week.
Speaking of the spread, why is it only four? Based on New England's impressive run the past three weeks, and Buffalo's losses to the Jets and Dolphins, public perception is that the Patriots are vastly superior. If Vegas wanted equal action on this game, the line would have been six or seven. Instead, it's a low four, indicating that the house wants as much money on New England as possible.
I'll buy the Bills low and sell the Patriots high. Buffalo wins outright and seizes control of the AFC East.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
I don't need to tell you that this is a big game for both teams.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills. http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/star.gif http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/star.gif
No surprise that the public is fading the Bills this week. Percentage of money on New England: 80% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots. http://walterfootball.com/images/fball/star.gif History: Patriots have won 14 of the last 15 meetings.
Losing Coach: Dick Jauron is 0-3 ATS as an underdog immediately after losing as a favorite.
Bills are 15-10 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
Patriots are 25-12 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
Patriots are 39-30 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.
Opening Line: Patriots -4.
Opening Total: 41.
Weather: .
Week 10 NFL Pick: Bills 17, Patriots 13
Bills +4 (4 Units)
Under 41.5 (.5 Units)
http://walterfootball.com/freenflpicks2008_10early.php