Mitchy moo
11-26-2008, 11:16 PM
Option A: The Bills win out
At 11-5, the Bills are very likely to make the playoffs. They would beat the Dolphins, knocking them down to 10-6 at best - passing them.
The Patriots would max out at 11-5 as well, but I think there's a pretty good chance they lose to either Pittsburgh or Arizona and we pass them thusly. But if they win out, we'd be tied in record, split head-to-head, and even in the division. Next up is common games, where it'll be another draw. So you go to conference record, where the Bills would be 8-4 and the Patriots 7-5. We'd edge them.
The Jets are next on the target list, and they could be 12-4 even if we win the rest of our games. If they're 11-5, we go to merry tiebreaker land. They split with us, one down. The divisional games count on where that loss comes from: if they lose to Miami, we're tied up at 3-3, but if they beat Miami en route to 11-5, they'll pass us automatically. But if they're 11-5 with a loss to Miami, we go to common games. The Jets' losses to San Diego and Oakland will cost them - we'd pass them here.
If we catch the Patriots but not the Jets, there's still no guarantees out in the other divisions, where Baltimore and Indianapolis could both be 12-4.
If Baltimore drops only a game against either Washington or Dallas, they pass us on their conference record. But if they get it against an AFC team, it starts going down the list again. Both teams would be 11-5 and 8-4 in the conference. Common games are next, and the Ravens will edge us here, even if they take a loss to Bills-defeated Jacksonville. So the Ravens need two losses from Pittsburgh, Washington, Dallas, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati.
The Colts will be not be possible to catch at 11-5 in any way, since they would have at least a 9-3 conference record. So root for at least two losses from Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
So to sum up: The Bills win the division at 11-5 IF
the Jets lose to Miami or lose any two other games.
They make the wildcard at 11-5 IF either:
The Ravens lose at least two more games or the Colts lose at least two more games.
Option B: The Bills go 10-6
Making the playoffs at 10-6 is significantly more difficult. Losing to San Francisco would make it laughable that the team could win four in a row after that against much better teams, and a division loss would drop our chances down to almost nothing. So say it comes vs. the Broncos.
Now, first up the Dolphins, would could still finish 10-6 even if they lost to us. If they do, they would have beat the Jets in week 17 and win any tiebreaker with us. Another loss would be tricky for them to come by: KC, St., Louis, and San Francisco are on the table.
The Patriots would need another loss to come down to 10-6 with us. They'd hold tiebreakers unless it came against Seattle, Arizona, or Oakland on common games. A loss to Oakland from them would get us ahead on conference games, otherwise, it goes down to strength of victory, where we would be defeated. Realistically, they'd need two losses out of Seattle, Arizona, Oakland, and Pittsburgh for us to pass.
And we're not passing the Jets at 10-6. It's mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely. They would have to lose to the Dolphins, who would also have to lose another game them behind us. Then they'd have to lose a game out of Denver, San Francisco and Seattle. And of course, lose to us in there. That's a 3-3 finish against mediocre teams for a team on a 5-0 tear.
Okay, so on to a wild card race with Baltimore and Indy. Again, our weak conference record (7-5) would require Indy to lose at least three conference games, which would put them behind us anyway. I don't think the Colts are finishing 2-3, considering they'd need to lose to Cincy, Cleveland, or Detroit.
Baltimore could tie us at 10-6 and have a 7-5 conference record, but they'd still beat us on common games. Meaning they'll need to lose three of Cincy, Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jax.
So, again, to sum it up: at 10-6, the Bills need to have:
The Dolphins lose to the Jets or lose two games out of STL, SF, KC.
AND
The Patriots lose to Oakland or lose two games out of PIT, SEA, ARI
AND
Indy lose three to Cleveland, Jacksonville, Detroit, Cincinnati and Tenneseee or
Baltimore lose three to Cincy, Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jacksonville.
Or only pass one of the Colts/Pats and then both of Indy/Baltimore.
Silvermike from TBD gets all the credit, I stole it. I you can read this, you're to close to your monitor as well.<!--IBF.ATTACHMENT_1229732-->
At 11-5, the Bills are very likely to make the playoffs. They would beat the Dolphins, knocking them down to 10-6 at best - passing them.
The Patriots would max out at 11-5 as well, but I think there's a pretty good chance they lose to either Pittsburgh or Arizona and we pass them thusly. But if they win out, we'd be tied in record, split head-to-head, and even in the division. Next up is common games, where it'll be another draw. So you go to conference record, where the Bills would be 8-4 and the Patriots 7-5. We'd edge them.
The Jets are next on the target list, and they could be 12-4 even if we win the rest of our games. If they're 11-5, we go to merry tiebreaker land. They split with us, one down. The divisional games count on where that loss comes from: if they lose to Miami, we're tied up at 3-3, but if they beat Miami en route to 11-5, they'll pass us automatically. But if they're 11-5 with a loss to Miami, we go to common games. The Jets' losses to San Diego and Oakland will cost them - we'd pass them here.
If we catch the Patriots but not the Jets, there's still no guarantees out in the other divisions, where Baltimore and Indianapolis could both be 12-4.
If Baltimore drops only a game against either Washington or Dallas, they pass us on their conference record. But if they get it against an AFC team, it starts going down the list again. Both teams would be 11-5 and 8-4 in the conference. Common games are next, and the Ravens will edge us here, even if they take a loss to Bills-defeated Jacksonville. So the Ravens need two losses from Pittsburgh, Washington, Dallas, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati.
The Colts will be not be possible to catch at 11-5 in any way, since they would have at least a 9-3 conference record. So root for at least two losses from Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
So to sum up: The Bills win the division at 11-5 IF
the Jets lose to Miami or lose any two other games.
They make the wildcard at 11-5 IF either:
The Ravens lose at least two more games or the Colts lose at least two more games.
Option B: The Bills go 10-6
Making the playoffs at 10-6 is significantly more difficult. Losing to San Francisco would make it laughable that the team could win four in a row after that against much better teams, and a division loss would drop our chances down to almost nothing. So say it comes vs. the Broncos.
Now, first up the Dolphins, would could still finish 10-6 even if they lost to us. If they do, they would have beat the Jets in week 17 and win any tiebreaker with us. Another loss would be tricky for them to come by: KC, St., Louis, and San Francisco are on the table.
The Patriots would need another loss to come down to 10-6 with us. They'd hold tiebreakers unless it came against Seattle, Arizona, or Oakland on common games. A loss to Oakland from them would get us ahead on conference games, otherwise, it goes down to strength of victory, where we would be defeated. Realistically, they'd need two losses out of Seattle, Arizona, Oakland, and Pittsburgh for us to pass.
And we're not passing the Jets at 10-6. It's mathematically possible, but extremely unlikely. They would have to lose to the Dolphins, who would also have to lose another game them behind us. Then they'd have to lose a game out of Denver, San Francisco and Seattle. And of course, lose to us in there. That's a 3-3 finish against mediocre teams for a team on a 5-0 tear.
Okay, so on to a wild card race with Baltimore and Indy. Again, our weak conference record (7-5) would require Indy to lose at least three conference games, which would put them behind us anyway. I don't think the Colts are finishing 2-3, considering they'd need to lose to Cincy, Cleveland, or Detroit.
Baltimore could tie us at 10-6 and have a 7-5 conference record, but they'd still beat us on common games. Meaning they'll need to lose three of Cincy, Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jax.
So, again, to sum it up: at 10-6, the Bills need to have:
The Dolphins lose to the Jets or lose two games out of STL, SF, KC.
AND
The Patriots lose to Oakland or lose two games out of PIT, SEA, ARI
AND
Indy lose three to Cleveland, Jacksonville, Detroit, Cincinnati and Tenneseee or
Baltimore lose three to Cincy, Washington, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Jacksonville.
Or only pass one of the Colts/Pats and then both of Indy/Baltimore.
Silvermike from TBD gets all the credit, I stole it. I you can read this, you're to close to your monitor as well.<!--IBF.ATTACHMENT_1229732-->