Taking McGahee isn't more of a risk...

[lordofgun]

...than taking a QB with your first-round pick.

I know it's probably a little late for this discussion, but I was thinking about it this morning.

First of all, 90% of the QBs taken in the first round won't see the field the first year they're drafted. Palmer, Leftwich, Boller, Grossman won't see much if any action until 2004.

Second, of those first-round QBs that do play in 2003 or 2004 or whenever, how many of them will actually turn out to be quality NFL players? Maybe 50%? Maybe?

I give McGahee a much better shot than 50% at returning to form and it sounds like TD and his doctors do too. Even if the McGahee deal is only a 50/50 shot at greatness, it's at least an equal shot as you'd have if you drafted a QB in the first round.

/me likes the pick.

[clumping platelets]

Maybe people will forget the bet I lost! :)



:ontome:

[HenryRules]

I agree with the pick. However, there's a big difference between a QB and an RB.

First, RBs capable of 1200+ yards (my definition of a franchise calibre back) are a dime a dozen in today's NFL. However, a franchise QB, which involves a lot more than numbers (see Jeff George) is quite hard to come by.

Second, once a QB is good enough to start for the team, he normally ends up playing well into his 30s ... so while he may sit a little at the beginning, you're still getting the same number of functional years. However, RBs start to slow down in their early 30s if they make it that far. While McGahee isn't taking any hits right now, he is recovering from injury, which is a long-term strain on the body.

Finally, the drop off in talent-level of QB is great after the first round. I know that a lot of QBs from later rounds become solid QBs (such as Warner), but the percentage of QB's drafted in late rounds that become good is waaay lower than the percentage of QB's drafted in the first round and become good. Notice I am not saying that more QBs that are good were drafted in the first round ... I am saying something different, so please don't start naming guys like Warner to prove me wrong. However, you can still expect solid, while not franchise-back quality contributions from backs that are drafted in the first day but not the first round.

[Earthquake Enyart]

Originally posted by HenryRules
I agree with the pick. However, there's a big difference between a QB and an RB.

First, RBs capable of 1200+ yards (my definition of a franchise calibre back) are a dime a dozen in today's NFL. However, a franchise QB, which involves a lot more than numbers (see Jeff George) is quite hard to come by.



If this is true, then why doesn't every team have a 1200 yard rusher?

I'm with log, the more I think about it, the more I like McGehee. The "special" running backs are hard to find.

[HenryRules]

Ricky Williams, LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Clinton Portis, Travis Henry, Deuce McAllister, Tiki Barber, Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon, Michael Bennet, and Ahman Green were all 1200 yard rushers last year.

Add in guys like Curtis Martin (who missed some carries at the beginning because of injury but can normally be counted for 1200 yards), Oakland (where they shared the carries more than normal, although Garner could easily rack up 1200 yards if given the carries), Marhall Faulk (similar case to Martin) and some others that you can usually expect 1200 from (Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Eddie George, Stephen Davis to name a few), and most teams do have a 1200 yard rusher.

[lordofgun]

<b>1200 yard rushers from last year:</b>
Ricky Williams MIA 1853 383 4.8 16 63
LaDainian Tomlinson SD 1683 372 4.5 14 76
Priest Holmes KC 1615 313 5.2 21 56
Clinton Portis DEN 1508 273 5.5 15 59
Travis Henry BUF 1438 325 4.4 13 34
Deuce McAllister NO 1388 325 4.3 13 62
Tiki Barber NYG 1387 304 4.6 11 70
Jamal Lewis BAL 1327 308 4.3 6 75
Fred Taylor JAC 1314 287 4.6 8 63
Corey Dillon CIN 1311 314 4.2 7 67
Michael Bennett MIN 1296 255 5.1 5 85
Ahman Green GB 1240 286 4.3 7 43

<b>3000 yard passers from last year:</b>
Rich Gannon OAK 4689 618 418 26 10 75 97.3
Drew Bledsoe BUF 4359 610 375 24 15 73 86.0
Peyton Manning IND 4200 591 392 27 19 69 88.8
Kerry Collins NYG 4073 545 335 19 14 82 85.4
Daunte Culpepper MIN 3853 549 333 18 23 61 75.3
Tom Brady NE 3764 601 373 28 14 49 85.7
Trent Green KC 3690 470 287 26 13 99 92.6
Brett Favre GB 3658 551 341 27 16 85 85.6
Aaron Brooks NO 3572 528 283 27 15 64 80.1
Steve McNair TEN 3387 492 301 22 15 55 84.0
Jeff Garcia SF 3344 528 328 21 10 76 85.6
Drew Brees SD 3284 526 320 17 16 52 76.9
Brian Griese DEN 3214 436 291 15 15 82 85.6
Jon Kitna CIN 3178 473 294 16 16 72 79.1
Chad Pennington NYJ 3120 399 275 22 6 47 104.2
Matt Hasselbeck SEA 3075 419 267 15 10 49 87.8
Brad Johnson TB 3049 451 281 22 6 76 92.9

That's 12 1200 yard rushers vs. 17 3000 yard passers

I don't see how 1200 yard rushers are a dime a dozen. :huh:

[lordofgun]

Tell Miami 1,200 yard rushers are a dime a dozen. Took them 20 years to find one! :snicker:

[Earthquake Enyart]

OK, 12 made 1200 yards, and 7 woulda shoulda couldas.

Stud QB's: Drew, Pennington, Manning, McNair, Gannon, Green, Favre, Culpepper, Warner, Garcia, Brad Johnson, Brady, Vick

That's 13. Who did I forget? The lists are about the same. That's log's point.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Originally posted by Earthquake Enyart
OK, 12 made 1200 yards, and 7 woulda shoulda couldas.

Stud QB's: Drew, Pennington, Manning, McNair, Gannon, Green, Favre, Culpepper, Warner, Garcia, Brad Johnson, Brady, Vick

That's 13. Who did I forget? The lists are about the same. That's log's point.

Thanks for clarifying EE :chuckle:

[Earthquake Enyart]

I'm a simple man looking for simple answers.

[casdhf]

I don't really think Culpepper or Brad Johnson are elite QBs. Culpepper is very overrated and Brad Johnson is too streaky. When he's on fire he's amazing, but other than that, I'd say he's average.

[Captain gameboy]

Related, but a little of target, I hope the success of Harrington and Carr buries the extremely strong views by some prior to last years draft that taking a QB in round one is crazy.
They've both done very well, and I'm sure their GMs are happy.
Past history is no guarentee of future results.

[HenryRules]

First, Log, I said IMO there is more to being a franchise QB than numbers, so 17 3000 yard passers does not mean there are 17 franchise QB's ... the number is closer to EE's list, which I disagree with on a few individuals, but the number is about right.

Second, to be a franchise back, you do not need to get 1200 yards <i>every</i> year, just 7 or 8 out of 10 years. Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, and Emmitt Smith all had times where they didn't get 1200 yards in a season (in the case of Thurman, its about an even split above and below). Anyway, back to my point, the 7 that I listed that did not get 1200 yards are still franchise backs ... or name me which of Martin, Faulk, Alexander, James, Garner, George, and Davis you do not consider to be franchise caliber RB's.

So that's about 19 franchise caliber RB's to 13 franchise QB's or 50% more RB's.

Third, ok, so you dispute my first point in the original post, well what about the other 2?

[Dozerdog]

Still does not make your RB's a dime a dozen, no matter how leinient you want to be.


Dime a dozen indicates you can pick them up in FA or draft them any time. WR's fall into that category, but RBs?

The best way to determine value of a position is to see what teams are willing to give up for a good one. Top flight QB's (Bledsoe) was had for a #1 (In the following season- most GM's consider that = to a 2nd this year)

Ricky Williams went for 2#1's and a 3rd. Using recent trades, it seems franchise RB's are more valuable than QB's

[HenryRules]

Bledsoe was coming off of a season in which he played 2 games, the two years previous he had a rating below 80 and hadn't had a completion percentage above 59 in 3. He also suffered questions about his leadership at a position where leadership is one of the main requirements. He definitely was not on the market as a franchise QB ... that's why we were the only ones bidding for him.

Ricky Williams was improving rapidly year-to-year and starting to live up to they hype.

Different situations between the two.

Finally, dime-a-dozen ... well Antowain Smith was signed as a free agent and I recall many posters on this board being afraid of facing him twice last year, Terry Allen was picked up off the scrap heaps and put up solid #'s when he went in for Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes was picked up by KC for nothing, it wasn't that long ago that Denver produced a franchise back a year, Olandis Gary when healthy being a perfect example, Charlie Garner was a castaway, Stephen Davis was a free agent.

And again, ok, so you disagree with my first statement, what about the other two?

1 - a QB, while sitting out the first couple of years will actually contribute more years over the length of his career.

2 - The drop-off in talent for QB's after the first round is much more significant than the drop-off in talent for RB's.

To me, point #3 in my original post (#2 here) is the biggest reason that there's a huge difference in taking QB's in the first versus RB's.

[Mad Bomber]

Sorry, LoG, but I still would have liked to have seen us take Dallas Clark as our first round pick. The Colts took him as the very next pick. He is a tight end with phenomenal receiving skills...Drew has shown how he can use a TE who can catch. He would have been a great pick. As an Iowa alum, I may be a bit biased, but I watched this kid play in 10 games, and he is one of the best receiving TEs I've ever seen...I saw him drop ONE pass all year that he should have caught. Would have been a great target for Drew....now he'll be a great target for Payton Manning.

[Dozerdog]

IF Dallas Clark is their future, are they going to cut Marcus Pollard June 1? If that's the case, we have the space to pick him up.


Then we can continue ignoring the position like we did last season

[mikemac2001]

well new offensive style this year TE"s might be used more well they will. idk if they will be used to catch though.

[HenryRules]

Our TE's are going to have to be used more this year than last year. We don't have a 3rd receiver with Josh Reed's ability and Larry Centers isn't around to be the extra option out of the backfield. Sure Henry can catch some more balls, but not too much, he already caught a fair amount last year. If, at the start of the season, we have a TE with solid blocking skills who can make the 10-15 yard receptions, he'll get 50-60 receptions. I haven't seen Campbell play that much, so I don't know if he can be that guy. From what I've heard though, he can't.