A view from an optimist

[Dr. Lecter]

Generally, I am an optimist. But after today, I am struggling to find something to be optimistic about. Sure these players love Jauron and for all of his faults, one can't reasonably claim that he has lost the team. He has NOT done that.

When I received the text message at a little after 5 PM while getting ready to go to leave work for the last time in 2008 and go to the gym, I was stunned. After my initial thought ("You have to be dry ****ing me") I tried to see the logic in the move.

After seeing last Sunday's perfect storm (in which I lost my ****ing front door because I was too stupid to make it was latched tight) and the way it played out, I thought I had seen the fitting end to this era. Jauron would be fired or dispatched to the front office. A new coach, maybe April, would be brought in. New assistants would be abundant with only April and Studesville as must keeps in my book. Alas, I was 100% wrong again. There is no change. And now the earlier reports of assistants being let go also seems to be false. Quite depressing indeed.

So where to go from here? Yes, I will still got to every game next year. I am an addict. And yes, after last season I had some hope. The play of Lynch, Edwards and other young guys was a sign for me. The way the team rallied around Jauron with the injuries and even a near death was encouraging. But it was all for naught. And after a fast start, this team plummeted. Bad decisions were not in short supply.Not getting another 1st down against Cleveland. Finding a way to score 3 points against San Fran. Playing McGee ahead of McKelvin vs, Miami. The spectacle last week at the end of the half. The Jets abomination. (On a side note, one of the supposed leaders on offense should have called a time-out to tell Dick that was dumbass call). Even the player's devotion to the coach could not overcome these errors.

So now we go forward to 2009. Sure they will sign a couple of FAs to make us happy. And drafting 11th, they will draft a talented player (personally, I think McKelvin will be Pro Bowl level in two years). But the same game decison stupidity will still exist, making this team FUBAR.

I see a return to 3-13 next year. And then a massive clean-up after the season. Then we can start over. Again.

Hopefully this does not ruin Edwards, Lynch and others. And hopefully Peters is extended, because trading him would be dumber than keeping Jauron.

Sigh. Thank God for Jim Beam and his friends.

[elltrain22]

Yup! I know exactly how ya feel. I would also call myself an optimist, and today's news is certainly hard to swallow, even for fans, like you and me, who are good at seeing things in a positive light. Thing about this situation, there is no positive vibes you get; none whatsoever. Most all of us, as Bills fans, have already suffered a horrendous year this year, and now the feeling I get about next year, is one of very little confidence and/or excitement. I can't get excited about this team, b/c I am convinced, as of this very day, that Ralph Wilson doesn't care about winning, but he cares about several things. First, he is a cheap SOB, and that carries over into so many bad aspects. Second, he loves comfortability, and that is detrimental to this franchise, b/c he overlooks so many important decisions. Third, he's stubborn & a control freak, which is funny when ya think about it considering how old & cenile he is.

I'm sorry, I'm ranting, and ranting. This is BS. I hate you Ralph Wilson.

[Romes]

Agreed and I consider my self an optimist, too.

The only hope for next year is that they bring in enough talent to mask DJ's weaknesses as a game manager. Its a long shot...

[BillsNick]

Unbelievable. Un-freakin-believable

:cynic:

[Night Train]

That noble of you, Lecter.

I'll take a year or 2 off until Wilson dies, then review where the Bills will be at, plus my own situation of whether I'm even still living in the area.

BTW- I saw your post you'll take my tickets if I bolt. My 3 club seat will probably run about $3,500-$4,000 next year. I'll let you know when I get the invoice. Obviously, it's no big deal for you.

[Dr. Lecter]

It will be a big deal if I can find people to go in with me.

But we can discuss it when/if it happens.

[Michael82]

Good post, Lecter! As you all know, I'm also one of the biggest optimistic Bills fans on the board, but when I woke up tonight and saw the text message, I was dumbfounded. I really believed that a change was going to happen. At the very least, both coordinators would get fired and so would some assistants. I don't know how we could have such a pathetic collapse and not make a single move. To not do anything is assinine. And it really ruins the optimism.

I understand that the players like Dick Jauron, but he has single handedly cost us two wins this year or more. And I bet I could pick another 2-3 games last year. I was ready to see him leave. He's a nice guy, but that isn't working in Buffalo. It was time for a change. And then Ralph basically flips all of us fans off...the ones that spend our hard earned money on this team and keep supporting it. We are the ones who fill his pockets with cash, but he basically told us to **** off. I'm sorry, but this night feels worse than the Mondays after a Bills loss, where Dick Jauron cost us the game with his horrible clock management and his bad play calls. :sigh:

Again, I feel the pain of getting kicked in the nuts! Thanks Ralph! You *******! :mad:

[Michael82]

It will be a big deal if I can find people to go in with me.

But we can discuss it when/if it happens.
I've always wanted to try a club seat. Hmm.....:scratch:

[Dr. Lecter]

Sorry. I'm out. :D

[Coach Sal]

When I received the text message at a little after 5 PM while getting ready to go to the gym for the first time in 2008.

There. I fixed your quote above. We all know what you meant to say. :D

Great post. But I think you're letting your knee-jerk side take over your emotions right now. No way this team goes 3-13 next year. The NFL changes fast and hard. Not that the Bills will win 12 or 13 games, but so many things will change with so many other teams, too, it's too easy to say they'll lose all these games because the schedule is so hard. Some of those teams will surprisingly suck.

--Check out Vic Carucci's article on the Pats possible decline next year:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80dc416b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
--The Jets will have a complete overhaul in coaches and probably a new QB. Maybe a young one.
--No way the Dolphins only turn the ball over 10 times and stay as healthy as they did this year.

And as bad as this team was managed on the field this year, they still won 7 games in spite of Jauron and Schonert's F-ups.

I may sound TOO optimistic, but I just never try to get too high or too low when analyzing these things. That's the way I coach, too. Things aren't good right now on the surface. But they're not 13-loss bad, either.

[Michael82]

There. I fixed your quote above. We all know what you meant to say. :D

Great post. But I think you're letting your knee-jerk side take over your emotions right now. No way this team goes 3-13 next year. The NFL changes fast and hard. Not that the Bills will win 12 or 13 games, but so many things will change with so many other teams, too, it's too easy to say they'll lose all these games because the schedule is so hard. Some of those teams will surprisingly suck.

--Check out Vic Carucci's article on the Pats possible decline next year:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80dc416b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
--The Jets will have a complete overhaul in coaches and probably a new QB. Maybe a young one.
--No way the Dolphins only turn the ball over 10 times and stay as healthy as they did this year.

And as bad as this team was managed on the field this year, they still won 7 games in spite of Jauron and Schonert's F-ups.

I may sound TOO optimistic, but I just never try to get too high or too low when analyzing these things. That's the way I coach, too. Things aren't good right now on the surface. But they're not 13-loss bad, either.
no, they aren't 3-13 bad next year. But they are 7-9 bad for the 4th ****ing year in a row. :ill:

[shelby]

Good post Doc, thanks. i have to agree with Sal in that things change quickly in the NFL. i hoped for a 10-6 season this year. While i'm disappointed that Jauron and the entire staff will stay, i was expecting it, so i'm not as upset as many of you.
i have to believe we have the pieces needed for this team to improve. The puzzle is just very difficult to solve.
i'm not a member of the FO. i'm just a fan. So at some point, for the sake of my sanity, i have to sigh and put my faith in the organization.

Remember how stoked we all were when this team was 5 and 1? ESPN mentioned Jauron as a possible COTY winner? Sure, we were playing sub-par teams, but it sure felt good to be winning. Then...the wheels came off. We were exposed for what we are, a team who struggles.

Losing seasons are nothing new. We're all growing weary of the mediocrity. Yet, we're still Bills fans at the end of the day. Or at least, i am.

[Historian]

Yes, I will still got to every game next year.

And therein lies the problem.

[patmoran2006]

Good post.

You said a lot of good points, and there is a good deal of young talent on this team.

But with a proven (bum) coach like Jauron it wont matter. He will always beat up on the cupcakes, get outcoached and often blown out by better teams, and most importantly, will find a way to lose 3-4 tight games per year against equals that will always disqualify us from post season.

[TacklingDummy]

Dick will be gone next year after the Bills finish 4-12.

Would you rather have Dick's last year be 4-12 or whatever coach replaced him be 4-12 in his first year? It doesn't matter who the coach is next year, with the lack of talent on the field and the schedule they play, there is no way any coach would turn this team into a winner next year.

[DraftBoy]

I agree with Lecter for the most part, all we can do now is concentrate on the offseason and hope more solid moves are made for the next regime as were the last two offseasons. This team is going nowhere with DJ at the helm.

I think we are in for a very rough year next year and then a total rebuild, and to some degree Im hopeful for that too. Its bring a fresh breath of air to a stale taste we've all had in our mouths for over a decade now.

[zone]

Good post, but with a healthy Trent I don't see us going 3-13.

[TedMock]

And therein lies the problem.

Don't forget that Ralph isn't making the big buck off ticket sales alone. Merchandise, etc provide a huge amount of revenue. I have very mixed feelings. My knee-jerk reaction was "I am not renewing my seasons." Now that it's the next day, I probably will renew my seasons. I live over 400 miles from One Bills Drive. I have for over 10 years. I have yet to give up my seasons. I have DirecTV and watch more at home than I do at the stadium because I just can't make 8 trips every year. Still, I keep my seats. I am what many will call "part of the problem." It's not that I enjoy watching them lose. Yes, I am optimistic, but I'm not blind to the fact that we're not a good team right now either. My fear is that if we don't go to the games we lose the team when a new owner comes in. We may lose the team anyway, but at least I'll go down fighting. I also, good team or not, cannot stomach having a ton of the oppositions fans' in our stadium. We may suck, but it's still our backyard. It just really bothers me. I do give away /sell a lot of my games, but only to Bills fans. It's tough and I am as mad at Ralph as everybody else. He is not commenting on this like he gives a rats arse. That's what really ticks me off. Okay, fine. You want to keep Jauron. It's your team and that's your right. Just give us some more beyond that. Don't tell us ticket sales are going down because of the economy, etc. It's stupid statements like this that drive me nuts. I don't wish Ralph's death like some psychopaths here, but I do know it's not that far off and I don't want to lose the team.

[billsfanone]

I'm embarrassed to be a Bills fan.

[Dr. Lecter]

And therein lies the problem.

Not really.

Ticket sales are a drop in the bucket. It is not a revenue stream.

[don137]

I feel poor coaching cost the Bills at least 2-3 games this year. I see no reason why Jauron will not cost the Bills 2-3 games next year. Throw in the schedule and I see 5-11 as a best case scenerio.

[Historian]

Not really.

Ticket sales are a drop in the bucket. It is not a revenue stream.

Your check is your endorsement of the goings on.

Period.

[madness]

There. I fixed your quote above. We all know what you meant to say. :D

Great post. But I think you're letting your knee-jerk side take over your emotions right now. No way this team goes 3-13 next year. The NFL changes fast and hard. Not that the Bills will win 12 or 13 games, but so many things will change with so many other teams, too, it's too easy to say they'll lose all these games because the schedule is so hard. Some of those teams will surprisingly suck.

--Check out Vic Carucci's article on the Pats possible decline next year:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80dc416b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
--The Jets will have a complete overhaul in coaches and probably a new QB. Maybe a young one.
--No way the Dolphins only turn the ball over 10 times and stay as healthy as they did this year.

And as bad as this team was managed on the field this year, they still won 7 games in spite of Jauron and Schonert's F-ups.

I may sound TOO optimistic, but I just never try to get too high or too low when analyzing these things. That's the way I coach, too. Things aren't good right now on the surface. But they're not 13-loss bad, either.

Some other interesting tidbits...

Even if the Jets stick with Farve, it's been reported he'd have to probably take a pay cut because they are in serious cap hell. They also went 1-4 to end the season. You mind as well make it 0-5 since Buffalo gave them their only win in that span.

As for the Phins..the "hot" team right now... you know how Bills Bashers (as in Bills fans who love to bash their own team) are quick to point out we only beat teams with losing records? The Dolphins fall into the same boat. In the last 10 they went 9-1 only suffering an embarrassing loss to the Patriots. How many winning teams did they beat in that span? 1... the reeling Denver Broncos. The last time they faced a winning team before the Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens gave Cam Cameron the game ball.

[jamze132]

I was as pissed as anyone last night but what can we do? Stop liking the Bills? I can't, even though their like you kid who you want to pimp slap once in a while, you still love them to death.

Here's to a good FA and draft! :cheers:

[Jan Reimers]

I'm no longer even remotely optimistic. We have one of the worst head coaches in the league, a front office that has continually failed to bring in enough talent to make us competitive, and an owner who is satisfied with grinding mediocrity.

We are virtually assured of another losing record next year, a 10th straight season with no playoffs, and no real help in sight.

I'm not even excited about the draft and free agency. Constant disappointment does that to you.

[blackonyx89]

Generally, I am an optimist. But after today, I am struggling to find something to be optimistic about. Sure these players love Jauron and for all of his faults, one can't reasonably claim that he has lost the team. He has NOT done that.

When I received the text message at a little after 5 PM while getting ready to go to leave work for the last time in 2008 and go to the gym, I was stunned. After my initial thought ("You have to be dry ****ing me") I tried to see the logic in the move.

After seeing last Sunday's perfect storm (in which I lost my ****ing front door because I was too stupid to make it was latched tight) and the way it played out, I thought I had seen the fitting end to this era. Jauron would be fired or dispatched to the front office. A new coach, maybe April, would be brought in. New assistants would be abundant with only April and Studesville as must keeps in my book. Alas, I was 100% wrong again. There is no change. And now the earlier reports of assistants being let go also seems to be false. Quite depressing indeed.

So where to go from here? Yes, I will still got to every game next year. I am an addict. And yes, after last season I had some hope. The play of Lynch, Edwards and other young guys was a sign for me. The way the team rallied around Jauron with the injuries and even a near death was encouraging. But it was all for naught. And after a fast start, this team plummeted. Bad decisions were not in short supply.Not getting another 1st down against Cleveland. Finding a way to score 3 points against San Fran. Playing McGee ahead of McKelvin vs, Miami. The spectacle last week at the end of the half. The Jets abomination. (On a side note, one of the supposed leaders on offense should have called a time-out to tell Dick that was dumbass call). Even the player's devotion to the coach could not overcome these errors.

So now we go forward to 2009. Sure they will sign a couple of FAs to make us happy. And drafting 11th, they will draft a talented player (personally, I think McKelvin will be Pro Bowl level in two years). But the same game decison stupidity will still exist, making this team FUBAR.

I see a return to 3-13 next year. And then a massive clean-up after the season. Then we can start over. Again.

Hopefully this does not ruin Edwards, Lynch and others. And hopefully Peters is extended, because trading him would be dumber than keeping Jauron.

Sigh. Thank God for Jim Beam and his friends.

But why go through a year of losing and he could've easily fired him? Doesn't make any sense at all!

[ddaryl]

the tree of the last remaining optomists has withered.

A massive cancellations of season tickets and a huge plunge in merchandising sales will be the only thing left for fans to do that Wilson can comprehend.

I've help up my bargain, I haven't purchased new Bills gear at all this year, and I am going to cancel my DirectTV Sunday ticket.

The only chance this team has for any sort of fan redemption is to sign their own FA's go out into Free Agency and spend every last penny. If Ralph really wants to compete with the Big markets and wants to draw in Toronto/Ontario fans he has to give them something to be excited about. Toronto and Ontario fans aren't going to attach themselves to a bumbling franchise from the states.

I guess we'll see what happens here, but no talent in the world is going to make up for the obviously unprepared teams he shows up with and the gameday management he obviously sucks at.

[chernobylwraiths]

It's a tough decision. I also am an optimist, but I can't see them being very good next year. It was like the last game this year. I wanted more bad coaching decisions (which I believe we got) and hoped we would lose, all the while I still wanted us to beat New England. I want a coaching change, but I am not going to get it so I can only do what I have been doing for over 30 years. I will continue to watch them as much as I can and hope they win. I won't go to games. Not because I am "not supporting" them but because of the investment in time that I am not willing to give up.

I will always love the Bills while they remain in Buffalo. I will always cheer for a win, and I will hope that they remain in Buffalo. As a fan, there is not much more I could do.

[chernobylwraiths]

Your check is your endorsement of the goings on.

Period.

Not going, not watching is an endorsement of wanting them to leave.

You CAN cheer for the team and NOT like the direction they are going.

[yordad]

Unbelievable. Un-freakin-believable

:cynic:Well said.

[Typ0]

Not really.

Ticket sales are a drop in the bucket. It is not a revenue stream.


you should elaborate on what you are talking about here. Every dollar that comes in is from a revenue stream how do ticket sales not qualify as a revenue stream?

[Dr. Lecter]

you should elaborate on what you are talking about here. Every dollar that comes in is from a revenue stream how do ticket sales not qualify as a revenue stream?

OK, it is not a significant revenue stream.

[Typ0]

OK, it is not a significant revenue stream.


you hear a lot about luxury boxes and tv revenues and you think ticket sales are insignficant? Those talks are all about opportunity costs. Ticket sales are core products for all teams. Luxury boxes aren't as lucrative in an empty stadium either. RW believes this entire market is driven by price sensitivity alone and the quality of the team on the field has no impact on ticket sales. That is proven year and again when crap is pushed at the fans and they gobble up the seats. Don't kid yourself, buying and not buying tickets makes a huge difference. Most importantly, it's the greatest behavioral measure of consumer interest in the team. People stop buying tickets and they also aren't buying concessions. I'd bet the total take from the stadium games is over 100 million dollars. That is not insignificant.

[Typ0]

Not going, not watching is an endorsement of wanting them to leave.


That is a ridiculous jump. I don't buy season tickets so I want the team to leave Buffalo? Absolute silliness. I'm not going to pour my heart and soul into something that doesn't give it back. That would be stupid. Did you ever have a crush on a girl that didn't want to have anything to do with you...and you put energy into paying attention to her? Welcome to being a Bills fan.

[Historian]

Not going, not watching is an endorsement of wanting them to leave.

.

That's just plain silly.

[Coach Sal]

Ticket sales in the NFL are split 60/40 between home and away teams.

The games at the Ralph represent some money. But overall, buying or not buying tickets to Bills games (unless there was an incredibly drastic drop-off, which I don't think there will be) isn't as big of a deal as people think.

Ralph still gets good money from the away games, too. And for every ticket not sold at the Ralph, he's really only losing 60% of that sale.

And most games in the NFL are sellouts or near sellouts. So, a drop-off in Bills season tickets or single game sales won't hurt him all that much. He just better hope he keeps selling those boxes (100% of which he keeps).

The thing that bothers me is that Goodell has stated numerous times that the Bills fate in Buffalo is tied directly to their fans' support. Ticket sales is the big way that will be measured.

[don137]

Ticket sales in the NFL are split 60/40 between home and away teams.

The games at the Ralph represent some money. But overall, buying or not buying tickets to Bills games (unless there was an incredibly drastic drop-off, which I don't think there will be) isn't as big of a deal as people think.

Ralph still gets good money from the away games, too. And for every ticket not sold at the Ralph, he's really only losing 60% of that sale.

And most games in the NFL are sellouts or near sellouts. So, a drop-off in Bills season tickets or single game sales won't hurt him all that much. He just better hope he keeps selling those boxes (100% of which he keeps).

The thing that bothers me is that Goodell has stated numerous times that the Bills fate in Buffalo is tied directly to their fans' support. Ticket sales is the big way that will be measured.
Don't the owners get 100% of the suites revenue with nothing goineg to the visiting team owner? If that is the case that is where Ralph could feel it the most even though he will just blame the economy. However, if he had Cowher, Pioli etc part of the organization and acd actually starting getting some FA's he would not have a problem selling all the boxes.

[Dr. Lecter]

There. I fixed your quote above. We all know what you meant to say. :D

Great post. But I think you're letting your knee-jerk side take over your emotions right now. No way this team goes 3-13 next year. The NFL changes fast and hard. Not that the Bills will win 12 or 13 games, but so many things will change with so many other teams, too, it's too easy to say they'll lose all these games because the schedule is so hard. Some of those teams will surprisingly suck.

--Check out Vic Carucci's article on the Pats possible decline next year:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80dc416b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true
--The Jets will have a complete overhaul in coaches and probably a new QB. Maybe a young one.
--No way the Dolphins only turn the ball over 10 times and stay as healthy as they did this year.

And as bad as this team was managed on the field this year, they still won 7 games in spite of Jauron and Schonert's F-ups.

I may sound TOO optimistic, but I just never try to get too high or too low when analyzing these things. That's the way I coach, too. Things aren't good right now on the surface. But they're not 13-loss bad, either.
OK, I wanted to wait awhile to see if I changed my thoughts and I really have not and I think there is sound reason.

First, let's look at the AFC East:

1. The Patriots demise? I have heard that for 5 years now. When it happens, I'll believe it. Until then, I'll take a Belicheck coached team that has DraftBoy, Mike, Eb, Clump, Mad Bomber, Historian and me on it against Jauron any day of the week. I just don't see them falling that far.
2. Valid points on the Jets. The Bills might not be in a worse situation. But new coaches and a young QB does not spell doom for a team. See Atlanta and Baltimore.
3. The Dolphins will not have the perfection they did this year, but they will be better assuming Parcells stays around. He will make them better elsewhere. As much as I hate to say it, they should be near the top of the AFC next year.

As for teams in both Souths surprising us with their suckability, I agree. Of course, there will also be bad teams that surprise us by being good. A team like KC or Cleveland could be a surprise team next year which will offset the surptise bad team. And the fact is the AFC and NFC West are two of the weaker divisions I have seen in years. The Bills swept the AFC West. 4-0 against them. Add in the 2-2 against the NFC West and you get 6-2. Even if they go 3-5 against the AFC and NFC south next year (a generous estimate), they will still likely struggle to get two more wins.

And the team did win 7 games with tweedledee and tweedledum. And next year they will do the same dumb things over and over again. So once again, they will cost the Bills games.

I have used the Marv Levy thought of not getting too high or too low and I generally agree with it. But the idea of keeping a staff around and intact that finished the season 2-8 is disturbing.

Finally, the team still has a marketing guru running the team. There is not a fotball guy running the show. Will Modrak help? Perhaps. He did not want some guys that hurt the team (See McGahee). But John Guy with a few exceptions has done a bad job. And with holes on this team that include DE, OLB, TE, C, G (to replace Dockery) and safety (Maybe #2 WR as well) I am not encouraged that they will fill many of them very well.

I hope you are right and maybe my spirit has been crushed. But I really think 3-13 is feasible and 7-9 is now a best case scenario. And really, at the end of the day, anything short of the playoffs makes this decision a colossal blunder.

The only hope that exists is that players who love Jauron go balls out for 16 games. But I am not sure they are good enough even if they do, considering the coaching blunders they must overcome.

[Historian]

OK, I wanted to wait awhile to see if I changed my thoughts and I really have not and I think there is sound reason.

.

Perhaps your best post ever.

I too have taken the time off to reflect on the goings-on at One Bills Drive.

I realize that I risk hammering the same point over and over, but after 41 seasons of watching Ralph Wilson operate, I have to say that I understand (for the most part) how he thinks.

The rest of this post will be on the front page later today.

:)