Wanna make some $$ this weekend?

[Coach Sal]

It might make you feel just a bit better after the debacle we read/heard Tuesday.

Anyway, take the Falcons. I'm sure of it.

Here's why. And all my other Wild Card weekend picks.

http://www.salsports.com/WildCardPicks.htm

14-2 last week, by the way. :)

[elltrain22]

Wow nice record this year strait up. I selected 171 correct (no spread, strait up) so I was close to you Coach!! You da man

[RockStar36]

I made 1000 on a divisional round parlay last playoff season. I don't think I've bet since.

[Kidlaker]

Oh man, I couldn't disagree more on the Falcons-Cardinals game. They seem to have gotten EJ going and they're a much better home team than road team. Their lopsided losses look ugly but they had nothing to look forward to in those games. Call me crazy but I think the Rookie HC + Rookie QB combination is going to walk into one here and lay and egg

[MDFINFAN]

It might make you feel just a bit better after the debacle we read/heard Tuesday.

Anyway, take the Falcons. I'm sure of it.

Here's why. And all my other Wild Card weekend picks.

http://www.salsports.com/WildCardPicks.htm

14-2 last week, by the way. :)

did you forget Miami didn't have Ferguson and Solari, the 1 and 2 NT's in the first meeting with the Ravens, which allowed them to run pretty good.. in O on O TD's, the Ravens beat the phins 20-13...with the run being the main theme for the ravens that day.. the extra td came on a int td return...also, that was when our OG situation was in shambles..trying to replace the right og... while we now have both starting OG's out for the season, the backups have had enough time to learn the O.. so I'm hoping for a better showing.

[Luisito23]

Falcons will NOT win against Arizona, trust me....It's my lock of the week...:cool:

[Kidlaker]

Falcons will NOT win against Arizona, trust me....It's my lock of the week...:cool:

Mine too. Falcons over Cards is the trap of the week, imo

[Kidlaker]

did you forget Miami didn't have Ferguson and Solari, the 1 and 2 NT's in the first meeting with the Ravens, which allowed them to run pretty good.. in O on O TD's, the Ravens beat the phins 20-13...with the run being the main theme for the ravens that day.. the extra td came on a int td return...also, that was when our OG situation was in shambles..trying to replace the right og... while we now have both starting OG's out for the season, the backups have had enough time to learn the O.. so I'm hoping for a better showing.

The biggest key for Miami, imo, will have to come from the Defense. The Ravens are one of the league's elite Defenses but their 1 weakness is the short-medium passing Defense. This plays into Chad Pennington's advantage and I don't think the "strike first" strategy the Dolphins have been employing will work. Miami needs to neutralize Ed Reed. Even with all of this, it's hard to see Miami being good for more than 20 points in this contest. Ravens Wildcard is Joe Flacco, and if Joey Porter and Co can put enough pressure on him they may be able to make him look like the rookie that he is. It's always a tough call with Rookie QBs in the playoffs, but the Ravens elite D definitely has the edge

[Coach Sal]

Oh man, I couldn't disagree more on the Falcons-Cardinals game. They seem to have gotten EJ going and they're a much better home team than road team. Their lopsided losses look ugly but they had nothing to look forward to in those games. Call me crazy but I think the Rookie HC + Rookie QB combination is going to walk into one here and lay and egg

And exactly how are they going to stop the Falcons offense when they haven't stopped anyone all year (over 26 pts/game allowed)?

Don't over-analyze things.

Just look at the facts over 16 games.

[MDFINFAN]

The biggest key for Miami, imo, will have to come from the Defense. The Ravens are one of the league's elite Defenses but their 1 weakness is the short-medium passing Defense. This plays into Chad Pennington's advantage and I don't think the "strike first" strategy the Dolphins have been employing will work. Miami needs to neutralize Ed Reed. Even with all of this, it's hard to see Miami being good for more than 20 points in this contest. Ravens Wildcard is Joe Flacco, and if Joey Porter and Co can put enough pressure on him they may be able to make him look like the rookie that he is. It's always a tough call with Rookie QBs in the playoffs, but the Ravens elite D definitely has the edge

I don't disagree with this assessment at all, the Raven's D is mean, last time, even when our WR's were still getting in sink with Chad, he managed to put up 295 yards on them which suprised me at the time. So I'm hoping now that we use both TE's and Cobbs in the passing game, we keep them honest..but the key is our backup guards starting for us.. I'm hoping we put more pressure on Flacco this game...that's why it's critical that we stop their running game early, and put it in Flacco's hands, then hit him and hit him, and hit him some more...both D's actually control the outcome of this game..

[Dr. Lecter]

I can't disagree Coach.

I was able to win some money in a year long pool and now the playoffs start.

If my fellow participants are willing, we are going all in with either Atlanta or the Colts this week.

[Kidlaker]

And exactly how are they going to stop the Falcons offense when they haven't stopped anyone all year (over 26 pts/game allowed)?

Don't over-analyze things.

Just look at the facts over 16 games.

Ryan has been an impressive rookie all year long but he has not impressed the last 3 weeks, averaging 170 yards and totaling 4 picks and 3 fumbles. There's just no way I'm laying points with a Rookie QB on the road. And unlike the other rookie QB laying points, Atlanta does not really have a defense they can fall back on.

[RockStar36]

I'd trust an Atlanta bet long before I bet Indy over San Diego. For an 8-8 team, the Chargers would make me nervous.

I think having a rookie HC and QB won't matter as much for the Falcons because they are playing Arizona. They are terrible and have no business even being in the playoffs.

[Night Train]

I'm leaning towards Indy, since both LT & Gates are banged up for the Chargers. Indy finished the year absolutely rolling.

[Goobylal]

did you forget Miami didn't have Ferguson and Solari, the 1 and 2 NT's in the first meeting with the Ravens, which allowed them to run pretty good.. in O on O TD's, the Ravens beat the phins 20-13...with the run being the main theme for the ravens that day.. the extra td came on a int td return...also, that was when our OG situation was in shambles..trying to replace the right og... while we now have both starting OG's out for the season, the backups have had enough time to learn the O.. so I'm hoping for a better showing.
Ferguson played that game. Soliai didn't, but his presence isn't going to shift the balance. And Flacco was playing just his 6th ever NFL game.

This one should be a Ravens win by at least a TD.

[DMBcrew36]

I'm leaning towards Indy, since both LT & Gates are banged up for the Chargers. Indy finished the year absolutely rolling.

Yeah, Indy would be my lock. Look at San Diego - worst team to make the playoffs! They suck and lost to a suck Bills team.

[Goobylal]

The major flaw with your analysis Coach Sal is that most of those losses were on the road, and in the home losses, one was to the Giants, the best team in football, and the other was to the Vikings, after allowing a punt return for a TD and 2 straight turnovers, to put them in a 21-0 hole, and on the 2nd and 3rd TD, the RB's did nothing, finally breaking-out during the 4th TD drive.

I'll take the Cards at home against a team that has to travel cross country, has a rookie QB and head coach, and the 21st ranked pass defense. Not to mention John Abraham is gimpy (what's new there?).

[Ingtar33]

It might make you feel just a bit better after the debacle we read/heard Tuesday.

Anyway, take the Falcons. I'm sure of it.

Here's why. And all my other Wild Card weekend picks.

http://www.salsports.com/WildCardPicks.htm

14-2 last week, by the way. :)


no way the falcons do it.

They're a sexy pick, but they've played pretty mediocre on the road, rookie QBs blow in the playoffs, and the Cards are tough at home.

Top it off the Cards are underdogs. I'd take the Cards if i bet anything. (which i don't). (note: im not thrilled with this game, but i don't like the falcons by two on the road)

I agree with your AFC pics, but 4 road wildcard teams aren't winning this weekend.

Take the road favs in the AFC, and the home dogs in the NFC.

In fact the Vikes will destroy the Eagles this weekend; that one's a lock.

[Mr. Pink]

I agree with Ingtar here...

Rookie QBs generally don't play well in the playoffs. With the way Ryan has played of late, not to take anything away from his season, I wouldn't put any money on Atlanta.

At least the Ravens have their D to turn to but I still wouldn't put money on them.

SD - Indy is a game I'd completely avoid betting wise. But, going by trends, San Diego should have the advantage. Whenever Dungy has rested his players, like this year, in week 17...the Colts come out and lay an egg. Plus San Diego has been basically playing "playoff games" for the past month.

And, I too, think the Eagles will get thrashed this weekend.

[Typ0]

You can't be serious. Atlanta a lock to win in Arizona? The cards are going to steamroll those birds the feathers will be burning to the pavement by the end of the first half.

[Tatonka]

Arizona

Indy

Baltimore

Minnesota.

[Tatonka]

oh... well that is what Ing just said too.

[Dr. Lecter]

Atlanta

Baltimore

Philadelphia

Indy

[Kidlaker]

Playing:

Cardinals +110
Bolts + 105
Dolphins +160
Vikings + 140

good luck all

[Coach Sal]

I can't believe the line in this game (ATL/ARZ) has moved 3.5 points! That's insane.

Started at Atlanta -2.5
Now Arizona -1

A ton of money going on the Cards. Vegas in gonna make a killing.

[HHURRICANE]

Oh man, I couldn't disagree more on the Falcons-Cardinals game. They seem to have gotten EJ going and they're a much better home team than road team. Their lopsided losses look ugly but they had nothing to look forward to in those games. Call me crazy but I think the Rookie HC + Rookie QB combination is going to walk into one here and lay and egg

Totally agree here. Rookie QB in his first playoff game. I could see him throw the most picks of his career today.

I live in Atalnata and will be rooting for Atlanta today but no way I'd bet on this game.

I've been betting for years and have only one year where I lost money. That was the year I bet on a playoff game. I never bet on the playoffs and I would never call this game "a lock".

[Dr. Lecter]

The more I think about it, Indy is a lock.

SD is last in pass defense.

Indy has allowed 6 passing TDs all year.

SD is 0-5 against playoff teams.

Peyton Manning.

Indy by 20.

[HHURRICANE]

Totally agree here. Rookie QB in his first playoff game. I could see him throw the most picks of his career today.

I live in Atalnata and will be rooting for Atlanta today but no way I'd bet on this game.

I've been betting for years and have only one year where I lost money. That was the year I bet on a playoff game. I never bet on the playoffs and I would never call this game "a lock".

Ryan already has a pick. Told ya!!

[Luisito23]

This was such an easy game to pick...Great catch by Fitz BTW...

[Mr. Pink]

Can the refs be any more biased this game towards the Falcons?

An obvious holding call in the endzone not called...

An obvious pass interference not called...

Looks like the NFL wants the Falcons to advance.

[Kidlaker]

The more I think about it, Indy is a lock.

SD is last in pass defense.

Indy has allowed 6 passing TDs all year.

SD is 0-5 against playoff teams.

Peyton Manning.

Indy by 20.

Feel free to discard my opinion because I'm a Bolts fan, but my model that I use for picking games is more math based than opinion based. We are 2-7 in close games where the Colts are 9-1. One of those close losses was of course due to the bad call in Week 1. We are a better team at the line of scrimmage and a better special teams play. We have the running edge no matter who the RB is. The Colts have Peyton Manning which makes it dangerous to back the Bolts here, however Peyton has been less than spectacular when playing on the road in the playoffs. Bolts should be favored by 3-4 points here and the only reason we are not is becuase we are 8-8 and Indy is 12-4. None of that matters now. Plenty of books are giving Bolts +1 to Bolts +1.5 as of this moment and it would be silly to NOT pound the hell out of them.

Btw, the same model I used to pick Arizona money line and got laughed at pretty much everywhere is looking quite good now with the Cards up 30-24.

Bolts over Colts imo.

[hydro]

Glad I didn't bet on this game...

[Mr. Pink]

I can't believe the line in this game (ATL/ARZ) has moved 3.5 points! That's insane.

Started at Atlanta -2.5
Now Arizona -1

A ton of money going on the Cards. Vegas in gonna make a killing.


Or not. :rofl:

Never bet on a team with a rookie QB in the playoffs. Ever.

Unless they have a dominant defense who can carry the team if said rookie QB makes the expected mistakes.

[Coach Sal]

Well, I was wrong about the game.

I have no problem admitting that.

But all you guys who talked about how Ryan was going to be so starry-eyed and rattled were also very wrong.

Other than two mistakes -- the first INT and the bomb to White that was picked by DRC - he played well. Was 9 in a row at one point, and the next pass was that horrible drop by White. He also led his team on a big drive late without one running play.

The Cards loaded up on the run and did a good job of stopping it. The fumble TD return was the play of the game.

I hope none of you lost money (but judging by the comments, I don't think so). I did :(

[Coach Sal]

Can the refs be any more biased this game towards the Falcons?

An obvious holding call in the endzone not called...

An obvious pass interference not called...

Looks like the NFL wants the Falcons to advance.

Translation: I tought I was about to be wrong, so I better blame the refs now.

[HHURRICANE]

Well, I was wrong about the game.

I have no problem admitting that.

But all you guys who talked about how Ryan was going to be so starry-eyed and rattled were also very wrong.

Other than two mistakes -- the first INT and the bomb to White that was picked by DRC - he played well. Was 9 in a row at one point, and the next pass was that horrible drop by White. He also led his team on a big drive late without one running play.

The Cards loaded up on the run and did a good job of stopping it. The fumble TD return was the play of the game.

I hope none of you lost money (but judging by the comments, I don't think so). I did :(

Rookie QB in his first playoff game.

Skooby bet it all on your stupid thread!! He's broke.

I hope you have room at you house for him and his family.

[Mr. Pink]

Translation: I tought I was about to be wrong, so I better blame the refs now.

Translation: the refs cost the Cardinals at the very minimum 5 points which wouldn't have made the game as close as it really was.

Don't fret man, you'll be 1-3 at best on your WC weekend picks.

I hope you didn't put money on the other 3 games.

[Coach Sal]

Translation: the refs cost the Cardinals at the very minimum 5 points which wouldn't have made the game as close as it really was.

Don't fret man, you'll be 1-3 at best on your WC weekend picks.

I hope you didn't put money on the other 3 games.

Where do you publish your picks every week?

[Kidlaker]

Rookie QB in his first playoff game.

Skooby bet it all on your stupid thread!! He's broke.

I hope you have room at you house for him and his family.

Heh, people are betting their mortgages on the Ravens line, also. Take it from someone who's neutral: Miami will cover the spread and may even win outright.

[Mr. Pink]

Where do you publish your picks every week?

If you want next season, we can go toe to toe with picks for the entire season. I have no problem doing and I won't be going anywhere. If you want to be a friendly wager on it, that's fine by me too.

I put who I would bet on/who I wouldn't bet on in this thread for this week.

You started the thread tooting your own horn for going 14-2 last week...so you gotta expect some flak when you bomb on your "surefire bet of the week."

Life is all about taking the good with the bad.

[Coach Sal]

Rookie QB in his first playoff game.

Skooby bet it all on your stupid thread!! He's broke.

I hope you have room at you house for him and his family.

Before today, do you know who the last rookie to start a playoff game was?

Do you know the result of that game?

How 'bout the last rookie before that?

[Coach Sal]

If you want next season, we can go toe to toe with picks for the entire season. I have no problem doing and I won't be going anywhere. If you want to be a friendly wager on it, that's fine by me too.

I put who I would bet on/who I wouldn't bet on in this thread for this week.

You started the thread tooting your own horn for going 14-2 last week...so you gotta expect some flak when you bomb on your "surefire bet of the week."

Life is all about taking the good with the bad.

I have no prob taking flak. I also have no prob admitting when I'm wrong (see last page).

But what's ridiculous is how many people like to pretend to be experts and give all that **** on a game here or there when I never see them actually put their nuts on the line.

Now, I'll ask you the same question as above. You keep mentioning how rookie QBs are such a bad thing to bet on. Can you name the last two rookies to start in the playoffs and what the results of their games were?!

[patmoran2006]

Sal,
You da man and I read just about all your columns, and enjoy them greatly.

But whether its you, Peter King or John Clayton I NEVER put stock into people's picks, and I surely when I'd write never write prediction columns.. Its the single-easiest way to look like a fool.

It does take bravado to put your nuts on the line, but it almost pays off.

Keep breaking news (like the Lee Evans extension scoop) and solid analysis; but I would stay away from the prediction business. Even the very best of writers are to be made fools "after the fact"

I believe Indy is going to win the Super Bowl, and LOL by 11:30 tonight if I wrote about that I'd probably look like an ass.

[patmoran2006]

and I'd just like to add.

when you pick a game, a big one and hit on it, people think you (not you, in general) are a cocky ass when you brag about it after.

But when ya lose one, people claim your a dummy.

[Coach Sal]

Sal,
You da man and I read just about all your columns, and enjoy them greatly.

But whether its you, Peter King or John Clayton I NEVER put stock into people's picks, and I surely when I'd write never write prediction columns.. Its the single-easiest way to look like a fool.

It does take bravado to put your nuts on the line, but it almost pays off.

Keep breaking news (like the Lee Evans extension scoop) and solid analysis; but I would stay away from the prediction business. Even the very best of writers are to be made fools "after the fact"

I believe Indy is going to win the Super Bowl, and LOL by 11:30 tonight if I wrote about that I'd probably look like an ass.

Pat, you are right about all of that.

But maiking picks is one of the best ways to get traffic to my site. That's why I do it.

I used to make picks for a local newpaper here, too. I'm used to the cat calls if I'm wrong.

I picked Indy over Philly in the SB in my preseason picks. I got so much crap for the Philly pick, including here. But as of now, I still think it could happen.

[Mr. Pink]

I have no prob taking flak. I also have no prob admitting when I'm wrong (see last page).

But what's ridiculous is how many people like to pretend to be experts and give all that **** on a game here or there when I never see them actually put their nuts on the line.

Now, I'll ask you the same question as above. You keep mentioning how rookie QBs are such a bad thing to bet on. Can you name the last two rookies to start in the playoffs and what the results of their games were?!

Big Ben took the Steelers to the AFC championship game.

And if you want to be technical seeing Brady played in all of one game in his first year, took the Pats to a title in his first season.

And if you want to keep being technical, Michael Vick took the Falcons to a playoff win in Lambeau his first full year starting.

[Coach Sal]

Big Ben took the Steelers to the AFC championship game.

And if you want to be technical seeing Brady played in all of one game in his first year, took the Pats to a title in his first season.

And if you want to keep being technical, Michael Vick took the Falcons to a playoff win in Lambeau his first full year starting.

Vick and Brady weren't rooks.

You guys keep hammering the "don't EVER bet on rooki QBs in the playoffs" mantra.

But the fact is the last two rooks to start a playoff game both won.

Big Ben in 2004.
Shaun King (Tampa) in 1999.

So that's a just a perception with no basis in fact.

[Goobylal]

Vick and Brady weren't rooks.

You guys keep hammering the "don't EVER bet on rooki QBs in the playoffs" mantra.

But the fact is the last two rooks to start a playoff game both won.

Big Ben in 2004.
Shaun King (Tampa) in 1999.

So that's a just a perception with no basis in fact.
To make the bet just based on Ryan being a rookie is dumb. As you said, the 2 examples disprove it. However if you dig deeper, you'll realize that it wasn't the QB's who won those games, it was their defenses. The Falcons don't have a great defense.

[Ingtar33]

I have no prob taking flak. I also have no prob admitting when I'm wrong (see last page).

But what's ridiculous is how many people like to pretend to be experts and give all that **** on a game here or there when I never see them actually put their nuts on the line.

Now, I'll ask you the same question as above. You keep mentioning how rookie QBs are such a bad thing to bet on. Can you name the last two rookies to start in the playoffs and what the results of their games were?!

the last two rookie QBs...

I think that would be big ben and shaun king... both won their game and failed to cover the spread while playing like crapola. I'll one up you, the only rookie QBs other then ben and shaun to start a playoff game since the AFL-NFL merger were, Marinovich, Marino, Everett and Kosar

the other 4 all lost.

so did Ryan.



Ryan was alright tonight, better then King or Ben were, but he still had some big mistakes, which, while they didn't cost his team the game directly, they certainly helped.

As to the rest... I don't make picks. mostly because i know I'd probably do pretty poorly, but NFL playoffs tend to be pretty easy to handicap, that's why i said anything.

in the Falcons - Cards game I thought the biggest factors were... 1) falcons play mediocre on the road 2) falcons running game is mediocre on the road 3) Cards play very good at home 3) cards were laying 2 points at home. 4) Ryan is a rookie, playing agaisnt Kurt Warner

[Mr. Pink]

Vick and Brady weren't rooks.

You guys keep hammering the "don't EVER bet on rooki QBs in the playoffs" mantra.

But the fact is the last two rooks to start a playoff game both won.

Big Ben in 2004.
Shaun King (Tampa) in 2001.

So that's a just a perception with no basis in fact.

The Bucs got absolutely hammered in that playoff game in 01 vs the Eagles...Brad Johnson played.

I believe you mean 1999 with King. One point game vs the Skins if memory serves me right.

Alltime since the merge rookie QBs are 2-7 in the playoffs. Even Dan Marino lost.

[Coach Sal]

The Bucs got absolutely hammered in that playoff game in 01 vs the Eagles...Brad Johnson played.

I believe you mean 1999 with King. One point game vs the Skins if memory serves me right.

Alltime since the merge rookie QBs are 2-7 in the playoffs. Even Dan Marino lost.

Yes, I fixed it after I posted.

But Matt Ryan was not the reason they lost tonight. In fact, he kept them in it.

[Ingtar33]

But Matt Ryan was not the reason they lost tonight. In fact, he kept them in it.

26/40
199yards
5.0ave
2tds
2ints
3 sacks (1 for a safety)
1 fumble (1 fumble lost)

ahh... i agree he wasn't why they lost, but this is a game that JP could be proud of; I'd hardly say he helped keep them in it.


big ben in his first game was

17/30
181 yards
6.0 ave
1 td
2 int
1 sack

(the steelers failed to cover the spread but won the game by 3)

[Coach Sal]

the last two rookie QBs...

I think that would be big ben and shaun king... both won their game and failed to cover the spread while playing like crapola. I'll one up you, the only rookie QBs other then ben and shaun to start a playoff game since the AFL-NFL merger were, Marinovich, Marino, Everett and Kosar

the other 4 all lost.

so did Ryan.



Ryan was alright tonight, better then King or Ben were, but he still had some big mistakes, which, while they didn't cost his team the game directly, they certainly helped.

As to the rest... I don't make picks. mostly because i know I'd probably do pretty poorly, but NFL playoffs tend to be pretty easy to handicap, that's why i said anything.

in the Falcons - Cards game I thought the biggest factors were... 1) falcons play mediocre on the road 2) falcons running game is mediocre on the road 3) Cards play very good at home 3) cards were laying 2 points at home. 4) Ryan is a rookie, playing agaisnt Kurt Warner

Good post.

Again, I think Ryan kept them in the game.

The Cards committed a lot of guys to the tun and stoped it for the most part.

But, it doesn't matter, I was wrong on that pick. I man up about it. But of course the sharks are in the water now and want blood.

So I'll let them have it knowing I was still right more than I was wrong this year and that - even though I lost me bets play for the week, there are still 3 games to play this weekend.

PS - I also did a 4-team teaser still in play:
Atlanta +8 (win)
Over 46 (win)
Colts +4.5
Over 44

[Coach Sal]

26/40
199yards
5.0ave
2tds
2ints
3 sacks (1 for a safety)
1 fumble (1 fumble lost)

ahh... i agree he wasn't why they lost, but this is a game that JP could be proud of; I'd hardly say he helped keep them in it.

2 INTS I agree.

Safety he held on too long.

The fumble? Wasn't that the one on the exchange? Charged to him, but I thought that was Turner's fault.

If Roddy White holds on to the ball, these #s may look a lot different, too.

Anyway, I tought he did well considering how much they had to rely on him (40 attempts).

[Ingtar33]

yeah. i liked reading your picks durring the season, i don't get to watch the nfl as closely as i like these days, so it's good to see some good opinions out there.

personally i think you'll be 2-2 after this weekend... i thought the absolute slam dunk pick of the weekend (if i was a betting man... and again, im not) was the vikes over the eagles.

[Mr. Pink]

and I'd just like to add.

when you pick a game, a big one and hit on it, people think you (not you, in general) are a cocky ass when you brag about it after.

But when ya lose one, people claim your a dummy.

Well, I'll always claim you're* a dummy

:rofl:

[HHURRICANE]

Before today, do you know who the last rookie to start a playoff game was?

Do you know the result of that game?

How 'bout the last rookie before that?

Dude, I gave your thread crap before the game started, not after. I don't care who the other rookies were. A rookie in his first playoff game:

2 INTS, a Safety, and I believe a fumble. That's a good day?

I'm not the one who posted a lock pick and guaranteed it. You put yourself out there so live with it.

I like you but you deserve the ball busting and it's all in good fun.

I was 5 for 5 this year on guarantees. You know what it got me on this site? Nothing.

I agree with Pat.

[SabreEleven]

Hey Coach Sal, you were wrong.

[Coach Sal]

Hey Coach Sal, you were wrong.

Really? Thanks, genius.

;)

[Goobylal]

I never listen to so-called "experts" regarding picks. Most are no better than any of us.

[SabreEleven]

Really? Thanks, genius.

;)

I prefer Capt Obvious, Thank you.

[Coach Sal]

I never listen to so-called "experts" regarding picks. Most are no better than any of us.

I am one of "us."

If I was an "expert" I'd move to Vegas tomorrow.

[Dr. Lecter]

My lock of Indy was a bust too.

[Ingtar33]

well im 1-1... indy losing was a surprise.

[Tatonka]

The more I think about it, Indy is a lock.

SD is last in pass defense.

Indy has allowed 6 passing TDs all year.

SD is 0-5 against playoff teams.

Peyton Manning.

Indy by 20.

i wish you were right. i got killed on this game.

[Dr. Lecter]

I did place a bet on Philadelphia in a pool I am in.

[Kidlaker]

Feel free to discard my opinion because I'm a Bolts fan, but my model that I use for picking games is more math based than opinion based. We are 2-7 in close games where the Colts are 9-1. One of those close losses was of course due to the bad call in Week 1. We are a better team at the line of scrimmage and a better special teams play. We have the running edge no matter who the RB is. The Colts have Peyton Manning which makes it dangerous to back the Bolts here, however Peyton has been less than spectacular when playing on the road in the playoffs. Bolts should be favored by 3-4 points here and the only reason we are not is becuase we are 8-8 and Indy is 12-4. None of that matters now. Plenty of books are giving Bolts +1 to Bolts +1.5 as of this moment and it would be silly to NOT pound the hell out of them.

Btw, the same model I used to pick Arizona money line and got laughed at pretty much everywhere is looking quite good now with the Cards up 30-24.

Bolts over Colts imo.

Being right is fun. Also called Ole Miss +4.5 and Utah +9.5(feel free to check my vBookie wagers). Miami +3 to +3.5 and Vikes +3 tomorrow. Bet em, bet em big.

[Tatonka]

can i ask you why you like miami tomorrow? i get the vikings pick.. but miami? really? the ravens killed them last time they played and i think the ravens are better now.

[Kidlaker]

can i ask you why you like miami tomorrow? i get the vikings pick.. but miami? really? the ravens killed them last time they played and i think the ravens are better now.

Recognizing this, bookies shade the point spreads toward the home underdogs. Because of the bettor bias, the bookies can set spreads so that home underdogs cover the spread more than half the time, but attract less than half the betting dollars. According to my estimates, home underdogs covered the spread almost 54 percent of the time over a 20-year period, but they still only attracted about 40 percent of the betting dollars in those games. As a consequence, these games are extremely profitable for the bookies: most of the money goes on the visiting favorite, who manages to cover the spread only 46 percent of the time. (For more on this, see an academic article (http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittWhyAreGamblingMarkets2004.pdf) I wrote on the subject.)
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/02/whats-with-the-home-underdogs-in-the-nfl/#more-3615

Ravens are in a 3-24 against the spread situation in Miami. 3-24!! Combine the Rookie QB + Rookie HC and it's even more abysmal.

With that aside, there are 3 Raven losses that really stand out in my mind. Losses to the Colts, Giants, and Steelers. For a team that is #1 of Time of Possession, they lost the ToP battle in those games and lost the game. Now look at Miami: Best dink and dunker of all time in Chad Pennington who is the perfect QB if you want to win ToP. They also lead the league in least turnovers. 2 headed monster attack in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. All these factors lead me to believe that Miami can win outright at home, and the points are just gravy. You can't just look at who won in the regular season. The Giants lost to Dallas(X2), Green Bay, and New England in the regular season and went on to beat each of those teams in the Playoffs. The Bolts lost to the Colts in the regular season and beat them today. This is clearly not the same Dolphins team that the Ravens played before.

Edit: Oh and also, Tony Sparano is a Rookie HC also. But let's be real here. You and I both know that everything that happens in Miami bounces off Bill Parcells.

[LtFinFan66]

I can't believe the line in this game (ATL/ARZ) has moved 3.5 points! That's insane.

Started at Atlanta -2.5
Now Arizona -1

A ton of money going on the Cards. Vegas in gonna make a killing.guess vegas didn't make that money on the cards

[LtFinFan66]

Vick and Brady weren't rooks.

You guys keep hammering the "don't EVER bet on rooki QBs in the playoffs" mantra.

But the fact is the last two rooks to start a playoff game both won.

Big Ben in 2004.
Shaun King (Tampa) in 1999.

So that's a just a perception with no basis in fact.no need to be rude about it:D:

[Kidlaker]

I am one of "us."

If I was an "expert" I'd move to Vegas tomorrow.

Why the desert bro? Plenty of room in LA and SD :D:

[Michael82]

I believe Indy is going to win the Super Bowl, and LOL by 11:30 tonight if I wrote about that I'd probably look like an ass.

:rofl: Yup, you are right. You do look like an ass! :snicker:

[Mr. Pink]

Well, if I did bet, I would be 2-0 thus far.

Sorry bout that lock of the week and the parlay coach.

And yes, I'm gonna give you crap all weekend about your picks...

Why?

Because I can and I pointed out originally that I disagreed with all of your picks.

I do hope though, that you didn't lose too much money. Honestly.

[BSXIII]

Well, if I did bet, I would be 2-0 thus far.

Sorry bout that lock of the week and the parlay coach.

And yes, I'm gonna give you crap all weekend about your picks...

Why?

Because I can and I pointed out originally that I disagreed with all of your picks.

I do hope though, that you didn't lose too much money. Honestly.

Same here, I picked both the Cardinals and Chargers to win at home, although I felt both games were a crapshoot and I wasn't willing to put money on either.

For the Cardinals-Falcons game, I felt the Cardinals would probably rebound after loafing for the past month, and I expected the rookie QB to struggle on the road, as he often did when he played for Boston College. He played better than expected, but the Cardinals still took care of business.

For the Colts-Chargers game, if there is one thing I learned from watching football over the past 20 years, it is do not count on Brett Favre or Peyton Manning in the playoffs. In Peyton's one aberration year, where the defense carried him to the trophy, he threw 3 interceptions in the first round matchup against the Chiefs. He actually fared better than I thought he would against the Chargers, but if not for 2-3 dropped interceptions and a Charger fumble at the goal line, this game would have been a blow out.

That said, I'm surpised both my picks won and if I had any real confidence in them, I would have put money on them.

If I was going to gamble, for tomorrows games I'd pick both Miami and Philly to both win and cover the spread, but I don't see either being close to a sure thing, and figure I'll probably finish this week 2 out of 4 for my picks.

[Kidlaker]

Same here, I picked both the Cardinals and Chargers to win at home, although I felt both games were a crapshoot and I wasn't willing to put money on either.

For the Cardinals-Falcons game, I felt the Cardinals would probably rebound after loafing for the past month, and I expected the rookie QB to struggle on the road, as he often did when he played for Boston College. He played better than expected, but the Cardinals still took care of business.

For the Colts-Chargers game, if there is one thing I learned from watching football over the past 20 years, it is do not count on Brett Favre or Peyton Manning in the playoffs. In Peyton's one aberration year, where the defense carried him to the trophy, he threw 3 interceptions in the first round matchup against the Chiefs. He actually fared better than I thought he would against the Chargers, but if not for 2-3 dropped interceptions and a Charger fumble at the goal line, this game would have been a blow out.

That said, I'm surpised both my picks won and if I had any real confidence in them, I would have put money on them.

If I was going to gamble, for tomorrows games I'd pick both Miami and Philly to both win and cover the spread, but I don't see either being close to a sure thing, and figure I'll probably finish this week 2 out of 4 for my picks.

Just look at in terms of the long run. Miami is in a spot where they should be PK or at most +1, but they are getting anywhere from +3 to +3.5. In the long run, these plays make you money irregardless of whether or not Miami covers tomorrow.

[Tatonka]

as good as it sounds to take miami. i am down from bowl games and i dont need long term solutions. i need a win today! haha.

[tampabay25690]

I like both dogs today with the +3.5 both teams at home as dogs......

[Historian]

Anyway, take the Falcons. I'm sure of it.



:rolleyes:

[tampabay25690]

as good as it sounds to take miami. i am down from bowl games and i dont need long term solutions. i need a win today! haha.

I think both home dogs looks pretty good today.
I don't bet anymore but thats what i would do.....
Its hard to turn down 2 home games as DOGS....

[tampabay25690]

I am one of "us."

If I was an "expert" I'd move to Vegas tomorrow.

I here you there...
No handicapper is ever 100%% right anyway, I wish you all knew what they actually do in VEGAS to determine games.....

THE AVG for them picking games is around 60% and thats a good 1...

I liked ATLANTA in that game as well but not enough.....

[Coach Sal]

I here you there...
No handicapper is ever 100%% right anyway, I wish you all knew what they actually do in VEGAS to determine games.....

THE AVG for them picking games is around 60% and thats a good 1...

I liked ATLANTA in that game as well but not enough.....

I was actually pretty good this year (52%) against the line. I checked a lot of the NFL sites (CBS, ESPN, FOX) and I was better than most of the guys on those sites. Some were really good, though.

But if all bets are equal, you have to win 55% just to break even because of the juice.

[Tatonka]

my book and most other local ones i have dealt with charge 10% juice.

[Tatonka]

i have personally found that picking the total is somewhat easier than picking the side in many nfl games today.

after reading some of the stuff on the ravens and fish... i am officially nervous about taking the ravens now. i am considering the over 37. the ravens have been putting up points, and the dolphins may be forced to keep up.

[patmoran2006]

I woulda went 1-1 yesterday.. I had the Cards and Colts.

Today I like the Ravens and Vikings, in mild upsets?

[HHURRICANE]

I woulda went 1-1 yesterday.. I had the Cards and Colts.

Today I like the Ravens and Vikings, in mild upsets?

I don't bet on the playoffs and yesterday was a great reason why. Especially Wild Card games.

I actually see Miami and the Eagles winning. Would I bet money on either game? No way.

[Kidlaker]

I think both home dogs looks pretty good today.
I don't bet anymore but thats what i would do.....
Its hard to turn down 2 home games as DOGS....

Yeah, Miami got ****ed up today to take the home dogs to 2-1 ATS. Their D showed up to play but that O was just abysmul. Vikes look pretty good atm so hopefully it's a 3-1 week for the home dogs.

[Kidlaker]

Nevermind, Tarvaris Jackson lol

[Tatonka]

im so pissed that i let myself get talked out of baltimore. ****.

[Goobylal]

I knew the Miami game would be over at halftime. And the MVP of that Colts-Chargers game was the Chargers' punter. They won because of him.

[Coach Sal]

Being right is fun.

Not so fun to lose both on Sunday, though, huh?


Playing:

Cardinals +110
Bolts + 105
Dolphins +160
Vikings + 140

2-2 straight up when it's all said and done. Just like me.

[Coach Sal]

Boy, that rookie QB Joe Flacco totally cost his team today, eh guys?

[Goobylal]

Boy, that rookie QB Joe Flacco totally cost his team today, eh guys?
He made safe throws, relying on his defense and running game. Pennington lost it for Miami.

[Mr. Pink]

Boy, that rookie QB Joe Flacco totally cost his team today, eh guys?

He had a defense to fall back on to carry them.

Unless you wanna call a 9/23 performance helping the team.

They won because they forced 5 turnovers not because of Joe Flacco.

[Mr. Pink]

Not so fun to lose both on Sunday, though, huh?



2-2 straight up when it's all said and done. Just like me.

And 1-3 with the spread, like I said.

Had to point that out!

[Ingtar33]

2-2 with the spread.

ugh... i thought the vikes would win easy. i didn't know Pat Williams wasn't playing.

[Coach Sal]

He had a defense to fall back on to carry them.

Unless you wanna call a 9/23 performance helping the team.

They won because they forced 5 turnovers not because of Joe Flacco.

Not the point.

All I kept hearing on here was "never, ever take a rookie QB in the playoffs, especially on the road," because he was certainly gong to lose. And definitely wouldn't cover.....because they never do!!

Well, he did win. And he did cover.

So, let's here more of the "but...but....but's........"

[Dr. Lecter]

I did place a bet on Philadelphia in a pool I am in.

Woo hoo!!

Already won money on the regular season part of this pool. Still alive in the playoffs.

Next week will be Carolina as they will demolish Arizona.

[Mr. Pink]

2-2 with the spread.

ugh... i thought the vikes would win easy. i didn't know Pat Williams wasn't playing.

With picking Baltimore to win by 2...the spread being 3 1/2...a person would then be betting on Miami because they don't think the Ravens would cover.

And I like you didn't think the Vikings offense would stay in the lockerroom after halftime. Figured they'd get Adrian more involved during the game outside of the long run.

Then again, I also thought Brian Westbrook would have a better day with Pat being out.

[Mr. Pink]

Not the point.

All I kept hearing on here was "never, ever take a rookie QB in the playoffs, especially on the road," because he was certainly gong to lose. And definitely wouldn't cover.....because they never do!!

Well, he did win. And he did cover.

So, let's here more of the "but...but....but's........"

Hey according to your picks, you didn't think he was gonna cover either.

So don't toot your own horn on this topic.

[Coach Sal]

And 1-3 with the spread, like I said.

Had to point that out!

Yes I was. But I hit a big 4-team tease today:

<TABLE id=pendingWager cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=pending>Bal
Over (32 on the tease)
Phi
Und

I liked Baltimore this morning, but picked Miami on my picks on THU and I don't change when I do that.

Plus I parlayed Bal with Philly and won and Parlayed Philly and under and won. So it was a good day for Coach Sal.

Next week I'll post my picks on Thursday or Friday again. post your picks after that.

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=pendingAltColor colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pending colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pendingAltColor colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pending colSpan=2><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD width=220></TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Dr. Lecter]

I already know you are taking Carolina.

[Mr. Pink]

Yes I was. But I hit a big 4-team tease today:

<TABLE id=pendingWager cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=pending>Bal
Over (32 on the tease)
Phi
Und

Plus I parlayed Bal with Philly and won and Parlayed Philly and under and won. So it was a good day for Coach Sal.

Next week I'll post my picks on Thursday or Friday again. post your picks after that.
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=pendingAltColor colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pending colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pendingAltColor colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=pending colSpan=2><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD width=220> </TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Nicely done to recover from yesterday's disaster.

And I'll post my picks in your thread next week, don't fret.

Hell I can post the winners now if you want...SD over Pit, Ten over Bal, NYG over Phi, Car over Az.

[Dr. Lecter]

Nicely done to recover from yesterday's disaster.

And I'll post my picks in your thread next week, don't fret.

Hell I can post the winners now if you want...SD over Pit, Ten over Bal, NYG over Phi, Car over Az.

Agree with all except SD.

Traveling east will kill them.

If there is an upset next week, it will be Baltimore over Tennessee.

[Mr. Pink]

Agree with all except SD.

Traveling east will kill them.

If there is an upset next week, it will be Baltimore over Tennessee.

Four reasons I like SD in this matchup.

The first matchup SD wasn't playing as well as they are now and Pittsburgh isn't playing as well now as they were then. We remembered what happened in the game, Pittsburgh won by a narrow margin.

That game also was played in Pittsburgh so the travelling bit shouldn't affect them.

SD has been playing playoff games basically the past 5 weeks.

The last we saw Big Ben he was carried off on a stretcher.

[Dr. Lecter]

Fair points, but Pittsburgh has had an extra week off and I doubt Sproles can be magic two weeks in a row. Without LT, Michael Bennett becomes the #2 back.

SD is also the team that lost to Buffalo. Any team that lost to the Bills gets very little confidence from me.

The Big Ben thing is a good point, but I am not sure that given enough protection that Leftwich can't get the job done.

And the playing playoff games for 5 weeks will eventually catch up to a team mentally and emotionally. Eventually you lose steam and tire out.

We'll see.

[tampabay25690]

Im glad I didnt bet this weekend.
I would have went 0-4

[Tatonka]

i got absolutely crushed this weekend.. mainly because i went against my gut and didnt bet baltimore. i took the over 38 instead. im an idiot for over analysing the game. then somehow i actually thought tavaris jackson was going to out play mcnabb.. i hammered indy last night and got owned too. i actually won the cards over, but not for nearly as much as the others i lost.

it was brutal. with the bowl games that kicked my ass earlier this week, this is probably the most i have lost in 10 years. i just feel sick to my stomach right now. ugh.

[patmoran2006]

I went 2 for 4.

Hit on Arizona and Baltimore; lost on Indy and Minnesota

(Didnt actualy wager, just predicted games)

[Goobylal]

Who didn't lose on the Indy-Chargers game?

[patmoran2006]

Who didn't lose on the Indy-Chargers game?
Maybe Tim Jennings and Clint Sessions, who played that OT like they had money on the Chargers.

[TacklingDummy]

Who didn't lose on the Indy-Chargers game?


Me.

[HAMMER]

Fair points, but Pittsburgh has had an extra week off and I doubt Sproles can be magic two weeks in a row. Without LT, Michael Bennett becomes the #2 back.

SD is also the team that lost to Buffalo. Any team that lost to the Bills gets very little confidence from me.

The Big Ben thing is a good point, but I am not sure that given enough protection that Leftwich can't get the job done.

And the playing playoff games for 5 weeks will eventually catch up to a team mentally and emotionally. Eventually you lose steam and tire out.

We'll see.

Don't sleep on Sproles, he is an amazing athlete, if the field is decent he will have a good game. Word is that he is pretty sore today from his huge workload last night, we'll see.