My PERSONAL Take On the Bills and this FA period..

[patmoran2006]

Nothing breaking here, just some observations as we approach FA in under a week.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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n It’s widely assumed the Bills are looking to upgrade via either FA and/or the draft at the following positions: <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">OLB</st1:City>, <st1:State w:st="on">DE</st1:State></st1:place>, C, TE, Backup QB,-- and possibly S and a #2 WR<o:p></o:p>
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This overall is a weak free agent market, especially at a lot of the Bills need positions.<o:p></o:p>
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OLB is brutal. Sadly, Angelo Crowell probably stands as the best OLB on the market. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Washington</st1:place></st1:State>’s Marcus Washington was cut today and will be available, but he’s 31 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. I highly doubt we consider him. Most of the good FA LB’s play on the inside primarily: Bart Scott, Jon Vilma, Ray Lewis.<o:p></o:p>
Perhaps a darkhorse could be Atlanta LB Michael Boley, who only had 73 tackles (no sacks) last year, but still has some upside, and is young. Just to note, two former Bills are <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">UFA</st1:place></st1:City> (Spikes and Wire)<o:p></o:p>
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DE is mostly pathetic. I”d be highly surprised if the Bills make any FA moves on a DE. Antonio Smith will cost too much, and <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> rarely signs older players like Bertrand Berry. Personally, I’d love to see the Bills rid of Kelsay, sign <st1:State w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Berry</st1:place></st1:State> as a stop-gap and work on developing Chris Ellis, but that’s not going to happen. Kelsay isn’t going anywhere, and he’s certainly not going anywhere in the near future. If <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> addresses this position it will be via the draft, and unlike a lot of fans, I’m far from convinced they are going DE with their first round pick.<o:p></o:p>
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TE isn’t much better. LJ Smith is the most talented of the group, but he’s been a disappointment in Philly and I’ve seen nothing to show me he’ll turn it around somewhere else. Chris Baker (Jets) is hitting the market, but many consider him just slightly better than current irrelevant Bills TE Robert Royal. Rumors are circulating that Todd Heap may hit the FA market. If that happens, I’d expect the Bills to explore that possibility. Realistically, I see this as a position the Bills address in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> or 3<SUP>rd</SUP> round of the draft.<o:p></o:p>
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The center position is one of this FA class’ strongest. Matt Birk and Jeff Saturday are two vets who could provide great short term stability to the line while the Bills groom a draft pick. Or they could spend the money and acquire the guy I feel would personally help the offensive line the most in Jason Brown. By signing Brown, not only are you saving a draft pick on a center, but you’re bringing in a guy who’s proven he can hold his own against some of the premiere 3-4 nose guards in the league. Bills fans surely remember Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston getting eaten alive by big defensive tackles in recent seasons. Brown makes dollars and sense to me. By the way, expect <st1:place w:st="on">Preston</st1:place> back as an interior backup. A lot of people are high on Mack as a first round draft pick should <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Buffalo</st1:place></st1:City> fail to land a center in FA, but it better come at the expense of a trade down. Teams simply don’t use draft picks that high on centers.<o:p></o:p>
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Backup QB: I feel Jon Kitna is the right choice for the Bills. He’s a proven veteran, by all accounts a good locker room guy and unlike guys like Jeff Garcia or Byron Leftwich, would accept and embrace a role as a #2. He was an excellent tutor of Carson Palmer in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Cincinnati</st1:place></st1:City> and I think Trent Edwards could learn a thing or two from him. Should the Bills not make a play for Kitna, Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bengals) is probably the next best choice, though I get an immediate sense of controversy if Edwards’ slips early. Rex Grossman, Chris Simms and Kyle Boller are other candidates, but nothing to get excited about. Again, signing Kitna appears the logical choice.<o:p></o:p>
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Safety: Although the Bills have far bigger needs than safety, the position has some good FA talent. It’s led by Jermaine Phillips, who would look mighty good next to Donte Whitner, who’s probably moving to FS regardless. Sean Jones (Browns) could be an interesting choice as well. Brian Dawkins is the biggest name on the market, but the odds of him wanting to finish a storied career on a team that hasn’t won anything in a decade is more than just slim. Im sure the Bills will try to land an impact player in the front seven before addressing the secondary, but if they strike out perhaps bringing in Phillips or Jones will still make the unit better.<o:p></o:p>
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WR: The Bills really need another WR. But I don’t think they’re going to spend on one. Even without Jenkins, they’re five deep (Evans, Reed, Johnson, Hardy, Parrish) and I simply don’t’ see them cutting Parrish. Hardy is probably not expected to do much (if anything) in 2009, so they’ll probably rely on Reed and a better running game to get things done. Still, if they do decide to grab a vet in FA, Amani Toomer or Nate Washington could be prime candidates.<o:p></o:p>
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Anyway- This is how I’m feeling a week before free agency. Realistically given the state of our roster and our cap room, I’d like to see a FA shopping cart consisting of Jason Brown, Jon Kitna, and Michael Boley. You get a stud at center, a competent backup quarterback, and a linebacker with potential that is if nothing else an upgrade over Keith Ellison.<o:p></o:p>

That would still leave plenty of cap room, which will be needed to end the ongoing Jason Peters saga.<o:p></o:p>
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You can then head into the draft looking for the best outside pass rusher or inside run stuffer you could find in round one. Maybe come back with a talented pass catching tight end in round two and just get the best talent in each round thereafter.

of course, there is also trades-- and if the Bills lock in on a pass rusher that becomes available, that could change everything.

**UPDATE**
Our “own” FA’s that I advocate resigning/tendering include: Keith Ellison, Gibran Hamden, George Wilson, Kurt Chambers and Duke Preston.<o:p></o:p>

[patmoran2006]

If ya dont feel like reading the whole thing: IM hoping for a shopping cart of Jason Brown, Jon Kitna and Michael Boley.

[Midwesternbillsfan]

I think that's a good read on the situation. If the Bills are willing to think outside of the box, I actually believe they could aggrandize some of their options at linebacker, though, and suddenly make the market a bit more appealing. I am talking specifically about Jonathan Vilma, who has mostly been unheralded around here but may actually make sense for a multitude of reasons. For one, he is still young; the former '04 1st-round pick, selected directly ahead of Lee Evans, turns just 27 in April. And two and probably more importantly, he absolutely flourished and was ultra-productive in the Cover 2 w/the Jets in '04 and '05, earning DROY honors his rookie season and making the Pro Bowler in year 2. When Herm Edwards was fired, though, Mangini insitituted the 34 defense, of which Vilma at just 230 pounds was a horrible fit at ILB, it was a fit that just wouldn't fit. No matter, we play the Cover 2.

If the Bills would allow themselves to consider shifting Posluszny to the strongside, where his lack of elite athleticism wouldn't be magnified, Vilma would be an EXCELLENT fit at MLB. I actually would even consider Vilma for weakside (shifting Mitchell to SLB, where he played w/the Giants). After all, the Saints tinkered w/Vilma at WLB during Training Camp in the unlikely event that Dan Morgan- out of retirement before entering back into it- could stay healthy at MLB. And the Saints allegedly are considering Maualuga at pick #14 AND retaining Vilma, with the thought being that Vilma's athletic and versatile enough to also play WLB. I believe pretty strongly that he is...

[patmoran2006]

I like Vilma as much as you do. I however, definitely do not see the Bills moving Posluszny to the outside. I think the staff feels he’s still going to be an excellent middle linebacker. Whether I (or the public) agrees with that is another issue.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

[Midwesternbillsfan]

Regarding the players that you specifically targeted, Pat, again I think you assembled a very good crop of additions. I really like Boley and have for awhile now. People may scoff at the addition of a player that for Atlanta lost a bit of playing time towards the end of last season to a player that we unceremoniously dumped the day before FA last year- Coy Wire- but there is a lot to like about Boley: he has untapped potential and he's young (turns 27 before the season), he's exceptionally quick and extraordinarily athletic (he's smallish but supremely fast), he has good coverage ability, and he while he physically looks the part of Keith Ellison (both roughly 6'1, 230) he's capable of making very big plays; we didn't receive any playmaking ability at the strongside in 2008. Moreover, before regressing in '08 in the newly-implemented Falcons' defense under Mike Smith, Boley was on his way to great things. He had a very promising '06 and a fringe-Pro Bowl '07, and in fact he played so well in 2007 that as an RFA last spring he was tendered at a 1st-round level. That his play dropped off could amount to a blessing because it made him available- he still can achieve big things in the NFL.

[kernowboy]

Personally, I would love the Bills to go after Todd Heap if he hit the market. It would save us a pick in 2009 and maybe 2010, and Rob Gronkowski of Arizona looks excellent from Heap's old alma mata in the future as his replacement. We might even draft his elder brother Dan, to make him feel at home - a decent blocking TE and improving receiving target who'll be around on Day2.

One name we've failed to mention at center who when fit has played well is Jake Grove. Considering the money we have invested in the OL and Peters impending deal, can we have a complete line of multi-millionaires?

At OLB I like Michael Boley whilst at backup QB it really depends whether the team want a mentor for Edwards or someone to push him. If its the latter, I think they might go after Kyle Boller.

I am not too impressed by the safeties, but someone on the DL who might be of interest could be Mike Wright of the Patriots who can be a decent LE in a 4-3 but move inside on passing downs where we can bring in a 3rd and down pass rusher.

And lets not forget FB. I am tired of journeymen. Zac Keasey has helped Frank Gore gained loads of yards. Lets get a quality young full back in.

Not too certain about your thoughts of WR. I think we may bring in a WR considering Hardy's and Reed's injury difficulties. Though he's not set the league on fire, Reggie Williams could be an interesting yet still young physical veteran who can muscle his way to the endzone. He has gone 80yds on a TD before.

If we can get Todd Heap, I can see the R2 going on William Moore.

[patmoran2006]

I didn't forget to mention a fullback, I just don't care.. If the Bills don't care, why should I? But since you mentioned him, Keasley is a guy I wouldn't mind here.

I'm not with you on Groves. If we're going to spend on center; given age, talent and durability then it has to Brown.

Lastly, Heap would be a big deal. I'm anxious to see if he gets released. Personally, I really don't think so.

I wouldn't mind Reggie Williams. Just not sure if we're going to invest more into WR, at least not in FA.

[shelby]

Good read Pat, thanks.

[EDS]

I think the bidding for Brown could get high which will make Buffalo a tough sell. Birk may be more realistic in the end, given his age.

Vilma would be great at either MLB or WLB, doesn't matter.

[kernowboy]

Agree about Jason Brown but I think the bidding war might become massive for an elite centre.

Birk is a bit long in the tooth for me, especially as he'd want a big final pay day.

Grove might be inclined to get out of Oakland and wouldn't be too expensive. He'd be potentially good for 4-5 years and we could bring in a young player like Shipley in the draft.

[PECKERWOOD]

Grrr, when I think of the WR position on this team I get a little frustrated, it's a complete mess! Why did they resign Jenkins? Why are they eyeing Washington? We already have 2 STers at WR, that's ENOUGH! Evans is good, worth a spot. Reed is good, worth a spot. Hardy is still young and shows some promise, also worth a spot, the rest of the WRs on our roster should be fair game! Ok, I like Steve Johnson too, sign me up on that bandwagon but he needs to have a killer training camp to prove himself further. Jenkins and Parrish are the two WRs I'm really frustrated with... You can go ahead and say that Jenkins is a role player and solid STer but still, we lack consistent playmakers at WR, you know? The people who actually produce at WR on offense and don't fill a role as a ST's player? That includes Parrish, for a 2nd round pick I'm seriously ready to pull the plug on that guy. For as much speed and agility he has, he can NEVER get open on offense. If I had to deal 1 player this offseason, it would be Parrish hands down and what's messed up about that whole idea is that we would probably land a 3rd round pick for him.. I really need to see a new face at WR ASAP or I may explode next season. When I think of our offense last year I get a little sleepy or bored. I'm not even kidding. I'm having trouble putting it into words, it's just rubbish, I can't describe it any other way... Our FO has a total disregard for adding playmakers. OK, we are blue collar but the Steelers of the 70s still had a Swann and Stallworth at WR? Am I wrong? We need some flash.

[billogic99]

Nearly every big name in FA has been gobbled up with tags. To date, this year more teams used their FA tags than ever before in the caped era. We will have a very tough time finding players to make an impact with so little left on the market. The Bills really, really, really need to make the most of this years draft.