LifetimeBillsFan
02-27-2009, 04:51 AM
Normally I would expect the Bills to make one big money signing in free agency (Dockery, Mitchell) and a couple of mid-level money signings in free agency. But, there are a couple of things at play in this free agency period that could lead the Bills to take an approach that would leave a lot of fans--those expect the team to make a big splash in free agency--frustrated.
The first factor is that the Bills have a lot of needs to fill this offseason. With Dockery, Fowler, Preston and Whittle gone, the Bills will have to bring in at least two and, perhaps, three offensive linemen from free agency. Given the strengths and weaknesses of this year's draft crop and their lack of depth at TE with the release of R.Royal, the Bills will also need to bring in at least one TE and either a TE or a OLB as well. And, they will need to bring in at least one CB who can play outside and in the slot to back up McKelvin, McGee, Youboty and Corner--they need more than D.Fox and possibly a late round rookie. A veteran RB, like F.Taylor, who can help the team weather a likely suspension for M.Lynch, would be nice as well.
That means that they need to sign a minimum of five or six free agents just to fill the open spots that they have on the roster that they are not likely to be able to fill through the draft.
The second factor to take into consideration is that the best free agents and most recognizable names in this free agent class don't play the positions that the Bills need to fill (ie Warner, K.Collins, Haynesworth, etc.), aren't good fits in the Bills' system and are better fits in other teams' systems (R.Lewis, B.Scott, C.Canty, etc.), or are likely to command far more money than they are likely to be worth (Bartell, Greer, Brown, etc.). The reality is that, outside of the linebacker position, there aren't a whole lot of big names available or players who will be worth the dollars that they can command at the positions that the Bills need to fill.
There aren't many offensive linemen, especially interior linemen, who qualify as "big-name" players. Jason Brown may be an up-and-coming player, but how many fans even knew who he was before this offseason? With Matt Birk being up in age, Brown has attracted a lot of attention and will command a lot of dollars. But, is Brown really going to be worth the kind of money that it is going to take to sign him? And, can the Bills afford to put so much into one player when they need to sign so many other players in free agency this offseason?
Beyond Brown, there aren't that many interior offensive linemen whose signing is likely to inspire a lot of enthusiasm amongst Bills fans. Birk has had an excellent career, but, even if the Bills signed him, there are those who would undoubtedly moan about his age and injury history and complain about the other interior lineman (or two) that the Bills would have to bring in along with him.
After Owen Daniels and, maybe, Baker and LJ Smith, there aren't any TEs in this free agent class who are likely to get Bills fans cheering if they were to sign with the team. Yet, even if the Bills draft a TE in the first three round of the draft, they still need to bring in at least one or two other TEs this offseason. Whoever the Bills sign at this position will probably bring a big "Ugh!" from most Bills fans, even if he turns out to fill a role on the team.
While there are some free agent linebackers who could be a good fit for the Bills, like D.Brooks, June, Keiaho, Vilma, etc., the really big-name LBs, Lewis, Scott, Canty, etc. are better fits in a 3-4 defense and are likely to look to sign with a team that plays a 3-4 defense. The Bills might sign a recognizable name at LB, but, with Brooks being up in age and likely to be looking for a team with a clear shot at winning a SB, the odds are stacked against it being one of the biggest names in this free agent class.
The same applies at QB, where the Bills are going to be looking for a veteran who will be satisfied with being a back-up, not a Warner or Collins. Guys like Garcia, Leftwich, Grossman, etc. may not be satisfied with coming in as strictly a back-up. So, if the Bills sign a FA QB, it might be a D.Huard or B.Johnson.
With the likes of P.Spicer and B.Berry being the best DEs available in free agency, the Bills would be better off taking a DE early in the draft and hoping that C.Ellis takes a jump in his development in his second year in the league.
Given the cornerbacks that the Bills already have and the amount of money that this mediocre crop of CBs is looking at commanding, any CB that the Bills bring in to back-up McGee, McKelvin and Corner is likely to have a flawed resume. It can be argued that, now that D.Hall has signed with Washington, there isn't a single big-name, true "shutdown CB" still on the market.
There isn't much in the way of big-name talent--talent that would make a big splash--that fits what the Bills need available in this free agent class. And, what there is is likely to quickly become overpriced: a guy like Houshmanzadeh is going to be pursued hard not only by Cincy, but by teams like the Giants, Jets, Philly, etc.
Which brings us to factor number three: Bills fans, especially those in WNY, may not want to admit it, but there are a lot of big-name players who are not going to want to come to Buffalo, especially not until the Bills prove that they can be perennial SB contenders. This is nothing new: Al Cowlings and Bobby Moore (aka Ahmad Rashad) only played for the Bills because they were drafted by the team and couldn't wait to get out of town; Jim Kelly prefered to play in the USFL until the Bills improved enough to convince him to be overpaid to come to Buffalo (some of you have forgotten about that, haven't you?!), etc.
No matter how much Fred Taylor likes Buffalo and no matter how close he is with Marcus Stroud, unless his wife convinces him otherwise, he is likely to choose the Pats and maybe even take less money from them for the chance to make it to a Super Bowl with Brady and Moss and Co. rather than sign with the Bills. You can blame the Bills for not being a good enough team to get a guy like Taylor that they are interested in signing, but they are not the only ones at fault then and how are they supposed to get better when the big-name guys that they pursue prefer to go elsewhere?
What it means is that the Bills have to build themselves into being a winner the hard way--by developing their young players into winners first from within and trying to keep their core young players together until they become winners.
Which leads to factor number four: Much has been made of how much money R.Wilson has made from the Toronto deal and how he has not really spent a lot of that money on the team. It is a fair point--certainly one to be watched. But, at the same time, complaints about this do not take into consideration an important issue facing the team: the fact that, if they prove to be winners, the Bills will need to lock up some of their key young players--Whitner, Edwards, Poz, etc.--before the uncapped year in the last year of the current CBA.
R.Wilson is going to want to find out if these young players are truly the future of a winning team before he gives them the kind of money that it will take for the Bills to lock them up to long-term contracts. And, they haven't proven yet that they are.
On the otherhand, if they do show that they are franchise players, Wilson is going to need to have a ton of cash available in order to give them the kind of bonuses that will be required to get them to sign long-term deals. It is going to take a lot of money to keep these players in Buffalo when they can opt to see how much they can command from teams like Dallas, Washington, Denver, the Giants, Jets, etc. with deep pockets and no salary cap to prevent them from spending as much as they like.
Does Wilson lay out big dollars for big-name free agents who may excite the fan-base, but may not be long-term answers or winners or does he try to amass enough to be able to lock up his core young players once he is sure that they are truly going to be franchise players by trying to fill the holes in the team's roster with mid-level free agents and young talents acquired through the draft that he hopes will develop?
I don't know to what extent this is playing into Wilson's thinking and what the team is doing. But, it is a factor that is out there and that is impacting the approach that some teams in the NFL are taking. Given Wilson's history, Bills fans should certainly continue to scrutinize how he uses or doesn't use the money that he gets from the Toronto deal. But, in doing so, they should also look to see if his actions end up reflecting whether this was an important factor in his decision-making.
In this same vein, I would throw out one other thing that we are all aware of, but may not want to think about as impacting what teams like the Bills may do in free agency, etc.: that is the world-wide economic depression/recession. It is not just impacting working people. It is also having a serious impact on the owners of sports clubs in every sport.
I was made aware of just how great an impact the economic situation is having on owners of sports teams through my interest in English soccer. A few years ago a Russian multi-billionaire bought the Chelsea club in the English Premier League and proceeded to transform them into one of the best clubs in Europe by buying top-flight, big-name players left and right. Money was no object. Until this winter. Despite the fact that the team was struggling with injuries and poor play, Chelsea's Russian owner made no moves to strengthen the team during the winter mid-season buying period. Why? Because he had lost so much money in the economic crisis that he put the team on a budget for the first time since he bought the club and they had no money left under his budget to spend on strengthening the team, even though it was playing very poorly.
If the former chairman of Gazprom, a man who could have bought and sold Jerry Jones a couple of times over two years ago, has lost a lot of money in the financial crisis, how much has a former insurance salesman like Ralph Wilson lost on his investments? How much have other NFL owners lost?
When the commentators on NFL Network are talking about the impact of the financial crisis on salaries and free agency, you have to know that there are some NFL owners who have lost a lot in the financial crisis. Yes, there are some players who will get the big bucks, like CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe and Mark Texiara did in baseball. But, I suspect that a lot of teams are going to hold off on signing the mid-level free agents until their prices drop and they are willing to accept lesser amounts of money (like guys like Bobby Abreu and Garrett Anderson had to do in baseball).
All of these things are factors that I think that Bills fans should take into consideration as they watch how the team proceeds in pursuing free agents. That doesn't mean that we can't hope that the Bills land a couple of really good players to fill the holes that they need to fill in their roster this offseason. But, we should be realistic in our expectations.
If you are expecting the Bills to sign Houshmanzadeh, Scott and Brown and trade for Winslow and Roy Williams, you are going to be very disappointed (if you expect to see any one of them in a Bills uni next season, IMHO you will be disappointed!).
But, it is possible that you could see a Michael Boley or Matt Birk and some guys like Geoff Hangartner. And, then, perhaps see Jason Peters and Terrance McGee get contract extensions.
Will that be good enough to make the team better this coming season? I don't know. I suspect a lot will depend on whether the young players, like Edwards, Poz, Ellis, McKelvin, S.Johnson, etc., that they already have and the rookies that they draft are able to take their games to the next level and the coaching staff can make the kind of improvement this offseason that they demand from their players. I would expect a lot of help--some, but not a whole lot--to come from big-name free agent signings.
The first factor is that the Bills have a lot of needs to fill this offseason. With Dockery, Fowler, Preston and Whittle gone, the Bills will have to bring in at least two and, perhaps, three offensive linemen from free agency. Given the strengths and weaknesses of this year's draft crop and their lack of depth at TE with the release of R.Royal, the Bills will also need to bring in at least one TE and either a TE or a OLB as well. And, they will need to bring in at least one CB who can play outside and in the slot to back up McKelvin, McGee, Youboty and Corner--they need more than D.Fox and possibly a late round rookie. A veteran RB, like F.Taylor, who can help the team weather a likely suspension for M.Lynch, would be nice as well.
That means that they need to sign a minimum of five or six free agents just to fill the open spots that they have on the roster that they are not likely to be able to fill through the draft.
The second factor to take into consideration is that the best free agents and most recognizable names in this free agent class don't play the positions that the Bills need to fill (ie Warner, K.Collins, Haynesworth, etc.), aren't good fits in the Bills' system and are better fits in other teams' systems (R.Lewis, B.Scott, C.Canty, etc.), or are likely to command far more money than they are likely to be worth (Bartell, Greer, Brown, etc.). The reality is that, outside of the linebacker position, there aren't a whole lot of big names available or players who will be worth the dollars that they can command at the positions that the Bills need to fill.
There aren't many offensive linemen, especially interior linemen, who qualify as "big-name" players. Jason Brown may be an up-and-coming player, but how many fans even knew who he was before this offseason? With Matt Birk being up in age, Brown has attracted a lot of attention and will command a lot of dollars. But, is Brown really going to be worth the kind of money that it is going to take to sign him? And, can the Bills afford to put so much into one player when they need to sign so many other players in free agency this offseason?
Beyond Brown, there aren't that many interior offensive linemen whose signing is likely to inspire a lot of enthusiasm amongst Bills fans. Birk has had an excellent career, but, even if the Bills signed him, there are those who would undoubtedly moan about his age and injury history and complain about the other interior lineman (or two) that the Bills would have to bring in along with him.
After Owen Daniels and, maybe, Baker and LJ Smith, there aren't any TEs in this free agent class who are likely to get Bills fans cheering if they were to sign with the team. Yet, even if the Bills draft a TE in the first three round of the draft, they still need to bring in at least one or two other TEs this offseason. Whoever the Bills sign at this position will probably bring a big "Ugh!" from most Bills fans, even if he turns out to fill a role on the team.
While there are some free agent linebackers who could be a good fit for the Bills, like D.Brooks, June, Keiaho, Vilma, etc., the really big-name LBs, Lewis, Scott, Canty, etc. are better fits in a 3-4 defense and are likely to look to sign with a team that plays a 3-4 defense. The Bills might sign a recognizable name at LB, but, with Brooks being up in age and likely to be looking for a team with a clear shot at winning a SB, the odds are stacked against it being one of the biggest names in this free agent class.
The same applies at QB, where the Bills are going to be looking for a veteran who will be satisfied with being a back-up, not a Warner or Collins. Guys like Garcia, Leftwich, Grossman, etc. may not be satisfied with coming in as strictly a back-up. So, if the Bills sign a FA QB, it might be a D.Huard or B.Johnson.
With the likes of P.Spicer and B.Berry being the best DEs available in free agency, the Bills would be better off taking a DE early in the draft and hoping that C.Ellis takes a jump in his development in his second year in the league.
Given the cornerbacks that the Bills already have and the amount of money that this mediocre crop of CBs is looking at commanding, any CB that the Bills bring in to back-up McGee, McKelvin and Corner is likely to have a flawed resume. It can be argued that, now that D.Hall has signed with Washington, there isn't a single big-name, true "shutdown CB" still on the market.
There isn't much in the way of big-name talent--talent that would make a big splash--that fits what the Bills need available in this free agent class. And, what there is is likely to quickly become overpriced: a guy like Houshmanzadeh is going to be pursued hard not only by Cincy, but by teams like the Giants, Jets, Philly, etc.
Which brings us to factor number three: Bills fans, especially those in WNY, may not want to admit it, but there are a lot of big-name players who are not going to want to come to Buffalo, especially not until the Bills prove that they can be perennial SB contenders. This is nothing new: Al Cowlings and Bobby Moore (aka Ahmad Rashad) only played for the Bills because they were drafted by the team and couldn't wait to get out of town; Jim Kelly prefered to play in the USFL until the Bills improved enough to convince him to be overpaid to come to Buffalo (some of you have forgotten about that, haven't you?!), etc.
No matter how much Fred Taylor likes Buffalo and no matter how close he is with Marcus Stroud, unless his wife convinces him otherwise, he is likely to choose the Pats and maybe even take less money from them for the chance to make it to a Super Bowl with Brady and Moss and Co. rather than sign with the Bills. You can blame the Bills for not being a good enough team to get a guy like Taylor that they are interested in signing, but they are not the only ones at fault then and how are they supposed to get better when the big-name guys that they pursue prefer to go elsewhere?
What it means is that the Bills have to build themselves into being a winner the hard way--by developing their young players into winners first from within and trying to keep their core young players together until they become winners.
Which leads to factor number four: Much has been made of how much money R.Wilson has made from the Toronto deal and how he has not really spent a lot of that money on the team. It is a fair point--certainly one to be watched. But, at the same time, complaints about this do not take into consideration an important issue facing the team: the fact that, if they prove to be winners, the Bills will need to lock up some of their key young players--Whitner, Edwards, Poz, etc.--before the uncapped year in the last year of the current CBA.
R.Wilson is going to want to find out if these young players are truly the future of a winning team before he gives them the kind of money that it will take for the Bills to lock them up to long-term contracts. And, they haven't proven yet that they are.
On the otherhand, if they do show that they are franchise players, Wilson is going to need to have a ton of cash available in order to give them the kind of bonuses that will be required to get them to sign long-term deals. It is going to take a lot of money to keep these players in Buffalo when they can opt to see how much they can command from teams like Dallas, Washington, Denver, the Giants, Jets, etc. with deep pockets and no salary cap to prevent them from spending as much as they like.
Does Wilson lay out big dollars for big-name free agents who may excite the fan-base, but may not be long-term answers or winners or does he try to amass enough to be able to lock up his core young players once he is sure that they are truly going to be franchise players by trying to fill the holes in the team's roster with mid-level free agents and young talents acquired through the draft that he hopes will develop?
I don't know to what extent this is playing into Wilson's thinking and what the team is doing. But, it is a factor that is out there and that is impacting the approach that some teams in the NFL are taking. Given Wilson's history, Bills fans should certainly continue to scrutinize how he uses or doesn't use the money that he gets from the Toronto deal. But, in doing so, they should also look to see if his actions end up reflecting whether this was an important factor in his decision-making.
In this same vein, I would throw out one other thing that we are all aware of, but may not want to think about as impacting what teams like the Bills may do in free agency, etc.: that is the world-wide economic depression/recession. It is not just impacting working people. It is also having a serious impact on the owners of sports clubs in every sport.
I was made aware of just how great an impact the economic situation is having on owners of sports teams through my interest in English soccer. A few years ago a Russian multi-billionaire bought the Chelsea club in the English Premier League and proceeded to transform them into one of the best clubs in Europe by buying top-flight, big-name players left and right. Money was no object. Until this winter. Despite the fact that the team was struggling with injuries and poor play, Chelsea's Russian owner made no moves to strengthen the team during the winter mid-season buying period. Why? Because he had lost so much money in the economic crisis that he put the team on a budget for the first time since he bought the club and they had no money left under his budget to spend on strengthening the team, even though it was playing very poorly.
If the former chairman of Gazprom, a man who could have bought and sold Jerry Jones a couple of times over two years ago, has lost a lot of money in the financial crisis, how much has a former insurance salesman like Ralph Wilson lost on his investments? How much have other NFL owners lost?
When the commentators on NFL Network are talking about the impact of the financial crisis on salaries and free agency, you have to know that there are some NFL owners who have lost a lot in the financial crisis. Yes, there are some players who will get the big bucks, like CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe and Mark Texiara did in baseball. But, I suspect that a lot of teams are going to hold off on signing the mid-level free agents until their prices drop and they are willing to accept lesser amounts of money (like guys like Bobby Abreu and Garrett Anderson had to do in baseball).
All of these things are factors that I think that Bills fans should take into consideration as they watch how the team proceeds in pursuing free agents. That doesn't mean that we can't hope that the Bills land a couple of really good players to fill the holes that they need to fill in their roster this offseason. But, we should be realistic in our expectations.
If you are expecting the Bills to sign Houshmanzadeh, Scott and Brown and trade for Winslow and Roy Williams, you are going to be very disappointed (if you expect to see any one of them in a Bills uni next season, IMHO you will be disappointed!).
But, it is possible that you could see a Michael Boley or Matt Birk and some guys like Geoff Hangartner. And, then, perhaps see Jason Peters and Terrance McGee get contract extensions.
Will that be good enough to make the team better this coming season? I don't know. I suspect a lot will depend on whether the young players, like Edwards, Poz, Ellis, McKelvin, S.Johnson, etc., that they already have and the rookies that they draft are able to take their games to the next level and the coaching staff can make the kind of improvement this offseason that they demand from their players. I would expect a lot of help--some, but not a whole lot--to come from big-name free agent signings.