LifetimeBillsFan
03-05-2009, 03:48 AM
If I were the Bills, I would try very hard to sign two of the following three RBs: D.Foster, K.Jones and/or Rudi Johnson; and, then, I would trade Marshawn Lynch--possibly to Kansas City for B.Waters or, if not to KC, for whatever it would take to get Waters from KC.
Why?
After having let Lynch off with just a talking to after the car accident where he left the scene of the accident, Roger Goodell has almost no choice but to suspend Lynch for 4 games. The next time Lynch is involved in any kind of off-field incident--and with two incidents in his two years in the league and one during his last year in college, the odds are that he will be involved in another incident at some point--Lynch will be suspended for half a season. Anything after that is a full year.
While Lynch is a tough runner and a good receiver out of the backfield, he runs to contact instead of to daylight and has yet to show that he can be a breakaway threat who can "take it to the house" from anywhere on the field. Yes, the Bills offensive line has not been very good at run-blocking, but Lynch has also missed holes that elite breakaway backs would have found for big gains. With his run-to-contact running style, Lynch is the type of RB who is likely to wear down quickly and get injured a lot in his career, much like Travis Henry: Lynch has already missed games due to injury in both of his first two seasons--the number of injuries and games missed can only be expected to increase as he plays more and gets older.
Despite his likely four game suspension this season, right now Marshawn Lynch still has considerable trade value--at least good enough to trade for Waters, who may be a consistent Pro Bowler, but who is also on the wrong side of 30. Whatever trade value that Lynch has, however, will plummet to almost zero if he gets suspended for another off-field incident. If the Bills do not want to have to deal with the possibility of suddenly losing their starting RB for half a season at some point, with having a lot of money that they don't have to spare tied up in a player who is sitting out a long suspension, the time to trade Lynch is now. His value may never be as high as it is now again.
Of course it is possible that, like Travis Henry, Lynch could go on to have some stellar seasons for another team if the Bills trade him. But, as with Henry, it is also just as likely that any stellar seasons will be interspersed with injuries and suspensions. If the Bills trade Lynch, they and their fans will have to live with the fact that Lynch will have some success in the NFL. Who knows, he might even get his life together and go on to have a great career without ever getting into any kind of trouble again. That's what whoever would be trading for him would be hoping for and counting on. But, if he has gotten in trouble twice in two years in Buffalo--Buffalo of all places--would you be willing to bet that he won't get in trouble every again during his NFL career?
Of course, trading Lynch would mean that the Bills would have to replace him. While Fred Jackson has shown that he can give the Bills some production in a limited role and can possibly do more with more playing time, Jackson can't replace Lynch alone--in fact, it is questionable that Jackson could bear up under the same workload that Lynch has had. But, Fred Jackson could be a key part of a running back tandem where he would not get overworked. And, it doesn't have to be a two-man tandem. With some of the best teams going over to using a three-back rotation, why can't or shouldn't the Bills opt to do the same?
While all three of the RBs that I have named have had issues with injuries during their careers, when healthy, all three have also been quite productive in the past as well. When he has been healthy enough to play, Foster has had some moments of brilliance and shown breakaway speed. He has been a pretty decent pass catcher out of the backfield, too.
Like Foster, Kevin Jones has also been hurt a lot in his career, but, when he has been healthy, he has put up some eye-popping numbers while playing for the Lions of all teams. Jones has been an even better pass receiver out of the backfield than Foster. The problem with both of these guys is that they have both been hurt a lot and neither one can be counted on to carry the workload of a lead RB or make it through a full season without missing some time to injury.
Rudi Johnson, on the other hand, doesn't have as extensive an injury history and has been a quality lead back in a good offense. The problem with Johnson is that he is a big back who doesn't have true breakaway speed, he isn't a very good pass receiver, and he has taken a lot of hits in his career that have taken their toll on him. Rudi no longer has what it takes to be a # 1 starting RB in the NFL, but, if healthy, he could be a valuable part of a three-man RB rotation, providing some hard-running thunder to go with the lightning that Fred Jackson and either Foster or Kevin Jones could provide.
Xavier Omon could challenge for a spot in the rotation if the Bills' coaches would give him a chance to carry the ball in something other than an obvious running down on the goalline. Bruce Hall as well.
The NY Giants used 4 RBs last season and will use at least 3 this year. Indy has used multiple RBs, despite having E.James and J.Addai. The Pats have used a large stable of RBs, only Maroney being truly outstanding, but each bringing different qualities to the table, the last couple of years as well. Teams are starting to go away from having one primary RB who gets all or even the vast majority of the touches in a game--unless they have a truly dominant, elite breakaway back, like A.Peterson, L.Johnson or L.Tomlinson, etc.
While the three veteran RBs that I have mentioned all have their shortcomings and injury issues, there is no reason why, if they are healthy now, they can't be productive and get through a season relatively unscathed if they are only getting about a third of the touches (give or take) during the course of the season. If it doesn't work out, the Bills can always look to target a RB in next year's draft, after they have solidified the interior of their offensive line and, hopefully, locked up J.Peters.
With Marshawn Lynch virtually certain to miss four games this season already, the Bills need to do something at the RB position. Trading Lynch might be the most radical way to address the problem, but it also might be the most efficient way for them to deal with it long-term, with the least drop-off in production (and maybe even an increase in overall production) in the short-term. I know that those who play fantasy football would hate it, but I'm not concerned about production in fantasy football, but the production that the Bills are going to be able to get from the RB position this season and going forward in the near future.
So, what do you think? (I'm sure that some of you will absolutely HATE this idea! If so, speak up!!!)
Why?
After having let Lynch off with just a talking to after the car accident where he left the scene of the accident, Roger Goodell has almost no choice but to suspend Lynch for 4 games. The next time Lynch is involved in any kind of off-field incident--and with two incidents in his two years in the league and one during his last year in college, the odds are that he will be involved in another incident at some point--Lynch will be suspended for half a season. Anything after that is a full year.
While Lynch is a tough runner and a good receiver out of the backfield, he runs to contact instead of to daylight and has yet to show that he can be a breakaway threat who can "take it to the house" from anywhere on the field. Yes, the Bills offensive line has not been very good at run-blocking, but Lynch has also missed holes that elite breakaway backs would have found for big gains. With his run-to-contact running style, Lynch is the type of RB who is likely to wear down quickly and get injured a lot in his career, much like Travis Henry: Lynch has already missed games due to injury in both of his first two seasons--the number of injuries and games missed can only be expected to increase as he plays more and gets older.
Despite his likely four game suspension this season, right now Marshawn Lynch still has considerable trade value--at least good enough to trade for Waters, who may be a consistent Pro Bowler, but who is also on the wrong side of 30. Whatever trade value that Lynch has, however, will plummet to almost zero if he gets suspended for another off-field incident. If the Bills do not want to have to deal with the possibility of suddenly losing their starting RB for half a season at some point, with having a lot of money that they don't have to spare tied up in a player who is sitting out a long suspension, the time to trade Lynch is now. His value may never be as high as it is now again.
Of course it is possible that, like Travis Henry, Lynch could go on to have some stellar seasons for another team if the Bills trade him. But, as with Henry, it is also just as likely that any stellar seasons will be interspersed with injuries and suspensions. If the Bills trade Lynch, they and their fans will have to live with the fact that Lynch will have some success in the NFL. Who knows, he might even get his life together and go on to have a great career without ever getting into any kind of trouble again. That's what whoever would be trading for him would be hoping for and counting on. But, if he has gotten in trouble twice in two years in Buffalo--Buffalo of all places--would you be willing to bet that he won't get in trouble every again during his NFL career?
Of course, trading Lynch would mean that the Bills would have to replace him. While Fred Jackson has shown that he can give the Bills some production in a limited role and can possibly do more with more playing time, Jackson can't replace Lynch alone--in fact, it is questionable that Jackson could bear up under the same workload that Lynch has had. But, Fred Jackson could be a key part of a running back tandem where he would not get overworked. And, it doesn't have to be a two-man tandem. With some of the best teams going over to using a three-back rotation, why can't or shouldn't the Bills opt to do the same?
While all three of the RBs that I have named have had issues with injuries during their careers, when healthy, all three have also been quite productive in the past as well. When he has been healthy enough to play, Foster has had some moments of brilliance and shown breakaway speed. He has been a pretty decent pass catcher out of the backfield, too.
Like Foster, Kevin Jones has also been hurt a lot in his career, but, when he has been healthy, he has put up some eye-popping numbers while playing for the Lions of all teams. Jones has been an even better pass receiver out of the backfield than Foster. The problem with both of these guys is that they have both been hurt a lot and neither one can be counted on to carry the workload of a lead RB or make it through a full season without missing some time to injury.
Rudi Johnson, on the other hand, doesn't have as extensive an injury history and has been a quality lead back in a good offense. The problem with Johnson is that he is a big back who doesn't have true breakaway speed, he isn't a very good pass receiver, and he has taken a lot of hits in his career that have taken their toll on him. Rudi no longer has what it takes to be a # 1 starting RB in the NFL, but, if healthy, he could be a valuable part of a three-man RB rotation, providing some hard-running thunder to go with the lightning that Fred Jackson and either Foster or Kevin Jones could provide.
Xavier Omon could challenge for a spot in the rotation if the Bills' coaches would give him a chance to carry the ball in something other than an obvious running down on the goalline. Bruce Hall as well.
The NY Giants used 4 RBs last season and will use at least 3 this year. Indy has used multiple RBs, despite having E.James and J.Addai. The Pats have used a large stable of RBs, only Maroney being truly outstanding, but each bringing different qualities to the table, the last couple of years as well. Teams are starting to go away from having one primary RB who gets all or even the vast majority of the touches in a game--unless they have a truly dominant, elite breakaway back, like A.Peterson, L.Johnson or L.Tomlinson, etc.
While the three veteran RBs that I have mentioned all have their shortcomings and injury issues, there is no reason why, if they are healthy now, they can't be productive and get through a season relatively unscathed if they are only getting about a third of the touches (give or take) during the course of the season. If it doesn't work out, the Bills can always look to target a RB in next year's draft, after they have solidified the interior of their offensive line and, hopefully, locked up J.Peters.
With Marshawn Lynch virtually certain to miss four games this season already, the Bills need to do something at the RB position. Trading Lynch might be the most radical way to address the problem, but it also might be the most efficient way for them to deal with it long-term, with the least drop-off in production (and maybe even an increase in overall production) in the short-term. I know that those who play fantasy football would hate it, but I'm not concerned about production in fantasy football, but the production that the Bills are going to be able to get from the RB position this season and going forward in the near future.
So, what do you think? (I'm sure that some of you will absolutely HATE this idea! If so, speak up!!!)