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Now that I have had a day and half to think about the signing of TO, I really am leaning being opposed to it. Why you might ask? I don't think he will make the team significantly better.
Prior to the signing, I was expecting a 3-13 season. With TO, I think 4 or maybe 5 wins is possible. But no more than that. There are still way too many holes on this team to be much better. Let's look at the gaping holes and problems this team has.
1. Pass rushing defensive end. There are non available in free agency. The help available in the draft is limited. Orakpo will likely be gone before 11. Brown and Maybin need to be in a 3-4. Ayers is not worth the #11 pick and might be around in round 2, and likely will not be a significant help in year 1 regardless. I don't see how they can fill this need adequately.
2. OLB - Keiaho and June are OK, but nothing great. Better than Ellison? Sure. Difference makers or above average? Not really. Once again, the one guy worth the #11 pick, Aaron Curry, will be long gone so the draft is not going to help. I don't see how they can fill this need adequately.
3. Left guard - This spot at least has a chance of being filled. Kendall Simmons, if healthy, would help. Brian Waters, if affordable in terms of money and trade compensation, would be an upgrade. But nobody knows for sure if he is available. Or what he would want for money. With a Peters extension still being worked on, how much can the Bills give him?
4. SS - Bryan Scott is OK. And maybe he can start for one year. He is great for a mid-season pick-up but is only an average player and his coverage skills leave something to be desired. Once again, there are not many FA's out there to help (say no to Roy Williams!) and rookie SS’s are not ideal.
5. TE - No help in FA. The draft is the only chance. I do think the Bills can get help here. Whether it is Cook, Nelson or Coffman I hope they take somebody. If Pettigrew falls to the 2nd round somehow, that might be ideal. Regardless, it will be a position manned by a rookie, a 2nd year guy and 3rd year guy who was a 7th round pick.
6. Interior O-line depth – I guess this can be addressed. I am not opposed toPreston returning. But right now there is nobody.
7. RB (to replace Lynch for 2-4 games) – The Bills clearly do not have confidence in Omon. Who will back-upJackson Jackson
8. WR - Yes. I know. They just signed TO. But receivers usually hit the wall, sometimes very quickly, at age 35. Can he still play? Can he get off press coverage? Why did not other teams go after him? Is he really still capable of being TO?
10. The likelihood that there will not be a “need” player worth the #11 pick. Orakpo will likely be gone. Curry will be gone. Crabtree will be a tough sell since they signed TO. The Bills will likely face a choice of taking Raji (which would be fine), one of the OT’s (Smith, Oher or Monroe – also fine), reaching for a guy (Yuck!) or hoping somebody wants to trade up. I also think Jenkins is possible, but if they draft a CB, even with his talents, I am staying away from his place for a month!
11. The head coach. Jauron is still the HC. He will still be making gameday decisions. He will still be calling time-outs. He will still not make proper challenges. He will still make baffling clock management decisions. And so on.
12. The schedule. Much more difficult than last year. And they were 7-9 last year after starting 5-1. So they finished 2-8, losing to teams likeCleveland and San Francisco
13. The TO attitude. Sure he has been good in year 1 before. But he is older and less patient. He is also not playing for a bad team for the first time in his career. How will he react to a 0-3 start? How will he react to 5 wide on 1st and goal from the 2? To wasted time-outs? I can see him exploding and dividing this team much sooner than he has in the past.
14. The improved AFC East –Miami
In short, TO would be great if this team was closer. I had thought they would contend for the 1st overall pick. But TO, even if he still can play, will only bump them up one or two wins. I still think they are a bottom 5 team. I just can’t get myself all up in the hype of signing a 35 year old receiver with a big mouth and larger ego. It took me 36 hours, but my enthusiasm has subsided.
Prior to the signing, I was expecting a 3-13 season. With TO, I think 4 or maybe 5 wins is possible. But no more than that. There are still way too many holes on this team to be much better. Let's look at the gaping holes and problems this team has.
1. Pass rushing defensive end. There are non available in free agency. The help available in the draft is limited. Orakpo will likely be gone before 11. Brown and Maybin need to be in a 3-4. Ayers is not worth the #11 pick and might be around in round 2, and likely will not be a significant help in year 1 regardless. I don't see how they can fill this need adequately.
2. OLB - Keiaho and June are OK, but nothing great. Better than Ellison? Sure. Difference makers or above average? Not really. Once again, the one guy worth the #11 pick, Aaron Curry, will be long gone so the draft is not going to help. I don't see how they can fill this need adequately.
3. Left guard - This spot at least has a chance of being filled. Kendall Simmons, if healthy, would help. Brian Waters, if affordable in terms of money and trade compensation, would be an upgrade. But nobody knows for sure if he is available. Or what he would want for money. With a Peters extension still being worked on, how much can the Bills give him?
4. SS - Bryan Scott is OK. And maybe he can start for one year. He is great for a mid-season pick-up but is only an average player and his coverage skills leave something to be desired. Once again, there are not many FA's out there to help (say no to Roy Williams!) and rookie SS’s are not ideal.
5. TE - No help in FA. The draft is the only chance. I do think the Bills can get help here. Whether it is Cook, Nelson or Coffman I hope they take somebody. If Pettigrew falls to the 2nd round somehow, that might be ideal. Regardless, it will be a position manned by a rookie, a 2nd year guy and 3rd year guy who was a 7th round pick.
6. Interior O-line depth – I guess this can be addressed. I am not opposed to
7. RB (to replace Lynch for 2-4 games) – The Bills clearly do not have confidence in Omon. Who will back-up
8. WR - Yes. I know. They just signed TO. But receivers usually hit the wall, sometimes very quickly, at age 35. Can he still play? Can he get off press coverage? Why did not other teams go after him? Is he really still capable of being TO?
10. The likelihood that there will not be a “need” player worth the #11 pick. Orakpo will likely be gone. Curry will be gone. Crabtree will be a tough sell since they signed TO. The Bills will likely face a choice of taking Raji (which would be fine), one of the OT’s (Smith, Oher or Monroe – also fine), reaching for a guy (Yuck!) or hoping somebody wants to trade up. I also think Jenkins is possible, but if they draft a CB, even with his talents, I am staying away from his place for a month!
11. The head coach. Jauron is still the HC. He will still be making gameday decisions. He will still be calling time-outs. He will still not make proper challenges. He will still make baffling clock management decisions. And so on.
12. The schedule. Much more difficult than last year. And they were 7-9 last year after starting 5-1. So they finished 2-8, losing to teams like
13. The TO attitude. Sure he has been good in year 1 before. But he is older and less patient. He is also not playing for a bad team for the first time in his career. How will he react to a 0-3 start? How will he react to 5 wide on 1st and goal from the 2? To wasted time-outs? I can see him exploding and dividing this team much sooner than he has in the past.
14. The improved AFC East –
In short, TO would be great if this team was closer. I had thought they would contend for the 1st overall pick. But TO, even if he still can play, will only bump them up one or two wins. I still think they are a bottom 5 team. I just can’t get myself all up in the hype of signing a 35 year old receiver with a big mouth and larger ego. It took me 36 hours, but my enthusiasm has subsided.
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