BillsZone Exclusive: The Bills # 11 Pick

[shelby]

Lawesome breaks it down....enjoy!


I am feeling a bit angry these days. I am angry about the Sabres, I am
angry at Notre Dame alumni and students for politicizing a commencement
speech, I am angry about the economy. But what really has me steamed?
It is the infatuation Bills fans seem to have with certain defensive ends and tight ends.

First off, the idea that we are going to draft a defensive end at #11 is ludicrous. If anyone really believes that the Bills are going to jettison Schobel, Kelsay, Denney or even Ellis, and hand the starting job and a huge bonus to one of these defensive end prospects, they need their heads examined. First off, that just isn't the Bills' style. Furthermore, I honestly and truly believe that the Bills, right or wrong, blame the Schobel injury for the vast majority of their defensive line woes.


As for these defensive end prospects, Aaron Maybin, Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown? These are not the pedigree of a game-changing defensive end that people are craving. They are just more of the same. In fact, I am not sure that, outside of Aaron Curry (who projects as a linebacker in the NFL,) there is a game-changer amongst the defensive lineman available this year.
In that case, I advocate the Bills go one of two routes: 1) Take the best "big man" available, or 2) Take the best player available that fills a need. The Bills cannot go wrong if they follow this methodology. If they go the "big guy" route, they can go after B.J. Raji, or one of the well regarded Offensive tackles, as each would be great options. Raji might not be a star, but he would be a solid, dependable middle of the line guy. Oher gives the Bills leverage and flexibility with Jason Peters.


I doubt the Bills go in this direction. I believe that they have identified Paul Posluszny as weak spot at middle linebacker. While much of the attention has been on filling in for Keith Ellison, I think Posluszny was a weaker link. He just didn't seem to be able to shed the blocks of the interior lineman who got to the second level. While I still believe Poz is a heck of a player, I simply think he is miscast as a middle linebacker in the NFL. I think he would thrive in the space which a move to outside linebacker would afford him.


This leads me to my pick, which is Rey Maualuga, middle linebacker from USC. Maualuga has a few things going for him that I really like. I like his size, his ability to disengage from blocks, and his ability to make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage. He also is a very emotional, take charge sort of personality. I think that is something all Bills fans found lacking last year. The thing I really liked about Maualuga was that he played his best games on the biggest stages. Whereas many of the other draft prospects have great measurables, but not the stats to back them up, Maualuga is the total package of measurables, production and winning.


more... (http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/2009/03/27/the_bills_11_pick.php)

[justasportsfan]

I wouldn't be upset with Mualaga but someone has to ask him first if he knows that buffalo exists or at least knows where it's at. Sape didn't.

[EDS]

I think Maybin could be a gamechanger in the John Abraham mold. Maybe not necessarily for the Bills and their system, but he has that potential.

That being said, unless someone falls I doubt that anyone the Bills select will be a perfect fit.

The only picks that would really piss me off would be a defensive back or tight end at 11.

[justasportsfan]

The only picks that would really piss me off would be a defensive back or tight end at 11.

THey surprised us with the Whitner pick. They could surprise us with another safety with the 11th pick.

[EDS]

THey surprised us with the Whitner pick. They could surprise us with another safety with the 11th pick.

Oh I don't doubt their ability to "surprise," just saying it would be a mistake, in my opinion, to use the 11th pick on a DB or TE at this point.

[ddaryl]

I liked the article. Thought it was pretty damn good read that adequately depicts our needs vs: best value at #11

[bigbub2352]

Great Post
I agree that we are not going DE, not with this stupid regime and how DJ luvs the players he has, plus the overpaying we are doing for our DEs also leads me to believe there will not be a pick at 11 DE either

I hate to say it but with McGee goin into FA next yr i see us taking another ****ing CB, plus it would be cheaper then a DE which is also a favorite for our owner

I would luv USC Rey Magulaga
if Ellison is again the starter that is just a joke and everyone on here can agree with that
We need Pass rush badly but look at it to be addressed by whoever coachs the Bills next year
Prepare to be dissapointed boys and girls

[ddaryl]

Great Post


I hate to say it but with McGee goin into FA next yr i see us taking another ****ing CB, plus it would be cheaper then a DE which is also a favorite for our owner


I beleive all draft picks are paid accordingly to where they were drafted. Meaning we could draft any player at any position and the amount is still going to fall somewhere between what the #10 pick receives and the #12 pick receives.

If we do take a CB at #11, well then its going to be the a horrible year considering the holes we have on the OL, TE, LB, and DL

[Mahdi]

Lawesome breaks it down....enjoy!



more... (http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/2009/03/27/the_bills_11_pick.php)
Don't agree with this break down at all....

Orakpo, Maybin and Brown are exactly what they are... game changing college DEs who were explosive and extremely productive. Opposite the type of DEs we currently have on our roster.

Every college player is unknown as an NFL prospect so saying they don't have the Pedigree of game changing DEs is a moot point. Everything they have done in college indicates otherwise, but again, those are only indications.

What's ludicrous to me is that the Bills staff isn't going to upgrade the DE spot with a high pick either first or second. Even when Schobel was on the field he struggled to get pressure. Both in 07 and in the games he played in in 08. With all the pressure successful NFL defenses bring off the edge whether 3-4 or 4-3 the Bills KNOW that they must bring in someone to put heat on QBs and ludicrous is assuming that the combination of Kelsay, Denney and Schobel will do that for us. Especially in the AFCE.

I can guarantee that either Brown, Maybin, Orakpo, Ayers, Johnson, Sidbury, English or Connor Barwin will be a Bill on April 25th.

[psubills62]

Don't agree with this break down at all....


Yeah, I don't agree with the breakdown either, but mainly the Maualuga part. Seriously?? I just don't understand the infatuation with this guy for several reasons:

1) Has anyone who supports Maualuga read any scouting reports on him? He sounds almost exactly like Poz...so how is moving Poz to the outside and replacing him at MLB with Maualuga going to solve our problems?

2) Maualuga had 2.5 tackles for a loss in 2008, and zero sacks. That's 3 % of his total tackles....that's horrible, especially on a dominant defense like USC's. So where exactly is this ability to "make plays at or behind the line of scrimmage?"

3) Plays his best games on the biggest stages? I guess Maualuga's 13 total tackles in the 3 games against OSU, Notre Dame, and Penn State showed him that?


At this point, I can easily see the Bills drafting Clay Matthews or Cushing well before they draft Maualuga. I just don't see Maualuga solving any problems for this team. Every time I see him, his play reminds me of Laurinaitis (another guy I'm not a fan of) - more of a pile-jumper than game-changer.

[User Manuel]

Don't agree with this break down at all....

Orakpo, Maybin and Brown are exactly what they are... game changing college DEs who were explosive and extremely productive. Opposite the type of DEs we currently have on our roster.

Every college player is unknown as an NFL prospect so saying they don't have the Pedigree of game changing DEs is a moot point. Everything they have done in college indicates otherwise, but again, those are only indications.

What's ludicrous to me is that the Bills staff isn't going to upgrade the DE spot with a high pick either first or second. Even when Schobel was on the field he struggled to get pressure. Both in 07 and in the games he played in in 08. With all the pressure successful NFL defenses bring off the edge whether 3-4 or 4-3 the Bills KNOW that they must bring in someone to put heat on QBs and ludicrous is assuming that the combination of Kelsay, Denney and Schobel will do that for us. Especially in the AFCE.

I can guarantee that either Brown, Maybin, Orakpo, Ayers, Johnson, Sidbury, English or Connor Barwin will be a Bill on April 25th.

I could see them adding a DE in rounds 2-4, I just can't believe that they will use #11 for one.

[User Manuel]

3) Plays his best games on the biggest stages? I guess Maualuga's 13 total tackles in the 3 games against OSU, Notre Dame, and Penn State showed him that?


Defensive Player of the Game in the Rose Bowl vs. Penn State, 5 Tackles and an interception for a TD against Ohio State seem like some pretty darned good games to me. He played 1 half of the ND game. The guy is a stud. He had 6 sacks in 2007 and played a different role in 2008 which led to a significant reduction in his blitz opportunities.

[justasportsfan]

the Pats are supposedly looking at him :idunno:

[yordad]

Orakpo has "Stud NFL DE" written all over him.

[Mahdi]

the Pats are supposedly looking at him :idunno:
Yeah in a 3-4 he is a perfect fit. Especially being drafted at #23.

[psubills62]

Defensive Player of the Game in the Rose Bowl vs. Penn State, 5 Tackles and an interception for a TD against Ohio State seem like some pretty darned good games to me. He played 1 half of the ND game. The guy is a stud. He had 6 sacks in 2007 and played a different role in 2008 which led to a significant reduction in his blitz opportunities.

I don't see why he would have gotten DPOG. Penn State made stupid mistakes to hand that game over, and Evan Royster averaged 5.3 YPC before he got hurt. Stephfon Green averaged 5.7 YPC.

I know, they switched to a 3-4 after the Oregon State game, where they got absolutely stomped. But ILB's in 3-4's still blitz a decent amount, or at least should be able to get TFL's in the run game.

He disappeared in that role - and what role do you think the Bills would have him in? Probably the exact same one that he was average in this year.

[X-Era]

I have zero problem with drafting Rey... adding a fly to the ball, fiery MLB and allowing Poz to move outside may make both spots better and our defense will be better as a whole.

Move up to late 1 for Johnson, or take Sidbury in round2 and Im very happy with what we did to our defense.

Round 3, we could get Coffman/Beckum/Casey/ or Ingram

and then in round 4 we could maybe get AQ Shipley, or wait till later for Tyronne Green... and then, around training camp time, we can sign Simmons who should be fully recovered.

Add a 5th rounder like Fiametta, maybe Jason Phillips and Im happy

[HAMMER]

It could very well be the BPA at 11 which is going to be Malcolm Jenkins.

[TigerJ]

I'm starting to get OK with the idea of drafting Maualuga. He didn't have a great combine, but I understand he got hurt running the 40. I assume in that scenario, Poz moves to the SAM spot. Either that, or Mitchell moves there and Poz takes over the WILL spot. There is a chance Chris Ellis could make some major strides this season, and who knows, maybe Schobel's injury bothered him a lot during the first few games. And if we're all wrong and the Bills are terrible versus a tough schedule, we can always draft Carlos Dunlop first overall next year.

[Ingtar33]

I believe that they have identified Paul Posluszny as weak spot at middle linebacker. While much of the attention has been on filling in for Keith Ellison, I think Posluszny was a weaker link. He just didn't seem to be able to shed the blocks of the interior lineman who got to the second level. While I still believe Poz is a heck of a player, I simply think he is miscast as a middle linebacker in the NFL. I think he would thrive in the space which a move to outside linebacker would afford him.


This leads me to my pick, which is Rey Maualuga, middle linebacker from USC

Its an interesting article, but i don't think this guy is particularly "on target".

1) if he's calling Poz the problem with the bills defense then he didn't watch many games last year. Poz did struggle a bit in coverage (especially early in the year), but he almost never was out of his gap assignment in run support. Ellison was rarely in his. many times overrunning the pursuit and allowing cutbacks... or flat missing the assignment. Don't get me wrong. Poz is not a "great middle linebacker yet. but he's no where near a problem for this defense. I'd replace Mitchell before i replaced/moved Poz out of the MLB spot.

2) I think he might be right about the DE's in this draft. there are no surefire successes, and most of the best ones are really better rush lb'ers for a 3-4. Orakpo might be the lone exception. But you'll really be rolling the dice if you draft him.

3) Rey Maualuga wasn't half the player Poz was in college. He's suggesting a downgrade at MLB. Besides he really feels more like a 3-4 MLB... or a Sam for a 4-3 then an 4-3 Mike. So i guess we could grab him at 11 (a bit high for him) and replace Ellison outside. But he'll never make bills fans happy, as i doubt he'll ever live up to first round draft status.

[mybills]

"First off, the idea that we are going to draft a defensive end at #11 is ludicrous."

He beat you to it..:D

I would not be shocked one bit if they end up taking a LB instead of a DE with the 11th pick in the draft.

[FlyingDutchman]

yeah bc our Dline was sooooo dominant before Schobels injury. If this guy thinks Schobels return is going to fix our piss poor pass rush, hes the one who needs his head examined. He does make some good points though.

[User Manuel]

Orakpo has "Stud NFL DE" written all over him.

Orakpo is Chris Kelsay who is Ryan Denney who is Chris Ellis

[User Manuel]

"First off, the idea that we are going to draft a defensive end at #11 is ludicrous."

He beat you to it..:D

He is a smart man that one.

[User Manuel]

You guys all make some very interesting points. What do you all think about trading down? Especially if someone like Sanchez, Crabtree, fill in your blank____ starts to fall?

[DraftBoy]

You guys all make some very interesting points. What do you all think about trading down? Especially if someone like Sanchez, Crabtree, fill in your blank____ starts to fall?

Sanchez should be there at our pick and I dont think he warrants a trade up from anybody and if Crabtree is there at 11 you take him.

[User Manuel]

Sanchez should be there at our pick and I dont think he warrants a trade up from anybody and if Crabtree is there at 11 you take him.

that would be a weird situation, imagine Crabtree sitting there. Do we take him at the expense of other positions. He would be really, really hard to pass on, but man, it would be a very Detroit Lion smelling move. But damn, it would be quite a 4 WR set we could put out there.

[yordad]

Orakpo is Chris Kelsay who is Ryan Denney who is Chris EllisLOL, huh? Was that supposed to be funny? Forget seeing him play, did you stop to look at his stat line? Did you happen to see how he blew up the combine? DId you know he benches over 500lbs? The dude could fold Denny in half, make his heel touch the back of his head, and swolllow him in 1 bite. OK, I went a little far on that last one, but really, the stable you refer to is no where near as talented, and the fact you refered to them as the same as Orakpo, shows how limited your knowledge is about him.

[User Manuel]

LOL, huh? Was that supposed to be funny? Forget seeing him play, did you stop to look at his stat line? Did you happen to see how he blew up the combine? DId you know he benches over 500lbs? The dude could fold Denny in half, make his heel touch the back of his head, and swolllow him in 1 bite. OK, I went a little far on that last one, but really, the stable you refer to is no where near as talented, and the fact you refered to them as the same as Orakpo, shows how limited your knowledge is about him.


I put little stock in his combine stats. And no, I am not an Orakpo stalker. It is moot anyways, IMO. If he is as sure a bet as you say, and maybe you do know better than I, he likely won't be there at #11. It also doesnt change the fact I don't believe we will take a DE. This guy is not the next coming of Bruce Smith, Howie Long.

[yordad]

I put little stock in his combine stats. And no, I am not an Orakpo stalker. It is moot anyways, IMO. If he is as sure a bet as you say, and maybe you do know better than I, he likely won't be there at #11. It also doesnt change the fact I don't believe we will take a DE. This guy is not the next coming of Bruce Smith, Howie Long.Your right, I don't think he will be there @ 11, but I am hoping. If he is there, he makes the choice very easy. If he isn't I hope some of the others you mentioned are, and I hope we trade down. I wouldn't mind a LB, but after Curry, I believe there is a log jam. No clear #2 prospect. Grabing an extra pick, and still getting arguably the second best LB prospect would be a bit of OK with me. But, ddaryl pretty much has me conviced a LT who can excell at G might be the best way to go, and could present the best value @11, if Orakpo is gone and there are no trade down suitors.

[User Manuel]

Your right, I don't think he will be there @ 11, but I am hoping. If he is there, he makes the choice very easy. If he isn't I hope some of the others you mentioned are, and I hope we trade down. I wouldn't mind a LB, but after Curry, I believe there is a log jam. No clear #2 prospect. Grabing an extra pick, and still getting arguably the second best LB prospect would be a bit of OK with me. But, ddaryl pretty much has me conviced a LT who can excell at G might be the best way to go, and could present the best value @11, if Orakpo is gone and there are no trade down suitors.

I would not be upset with an OT either.

[HHURRICANE]

I hate this year's draft.

I agree that there isn't a slam dunk DE which makes the draft that much more difficlut because that's the player we need.

I think the Bills need to gamble on one side of the ball or the other. I actually think the offense is poised to take the leadership role for winning games this year.

So TE or OT/OC makes the most sense.