Is this mock a joke?

[ServoBillieves]

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d80f4002b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

<table class="standard_table" width="100%" align="left" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="whiteback"><td>
11.
</td> <td>
Bills (http://www.nfl.com/teams/profile?team=BUF)
</td> <td>
Malcolm Jenkins (http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/malcolm-jenkins?id=79848)
</td> <td>
CB
</td> <td>
Ohio State
</td></tr></tbody></table>


Uhhhh... Did he not realize we have no pass rush, no guard, no TE, and just drafted a CB last year at the same spot?

[yordad]

LOL, some on here agree with this dude. Not me. I would throw a real brick through my big screen, not a fake styrofoam one.

[DrGraves]

The Bills have a fetish with drafting Ohio State secondary players...

[Devin]

ugggh.

[THATHURMANATOR]

LOL, some on here agree with this dude. Not me. I would throw a real brick through my big screen, not a fake styrofoam one.
Who here would agree with another CB?

[yordad]

Who here would agree with another CB?I believe Lector took him in his mock, and he did so with DB strongly urging him on.

[Slim]

I would not be happy. But we do need a SS.

[Mitchell55]

Now DB is going to come on hear and talk about how great of a pick it is.

[Jaybird]

He would play safety for the bills.... but still no way we draft him at 11

[Mitchell55]

He would play safety for the bills.... but still no way we draft him at 11


Yeah, maybe if we trade down to around 17-21 and hes still there but not 11.

[THATHURMANATOR]

I believe Lector took him in his mock, and he did so with DB strongly urging him on.
Lecter is this true

[Dr. Lecter]

I did not take him in a mock.

I merely said that, if certain players are off the board, Jenkins is a better pick than one of the USC LBs or Maybin. Depending on how the top 10 go, it might not be a bad pick.

[jamze132]

I believe Lector took him in his mock, and he did so with DB strongly urging him on.
It was not Lecter. You just punked an innocent bystander.

[Dr. Lecter]

It was Clump.

I am now worried that Yordad is going to tell the cops that I am the one that left the body he found.

[jamze132]

It was Clump.

I am now worried that Yordad is going to tell the cops that I am the one that left the body he found.
Maybe he likes you and is interested in you as much as he is for DBs "quest for love..."

[HAMMER]

I said a couple months back that this would not surprise me, McGee is a FA after this season.

[Mr. Pink]

Why would Jenkins be a bad pick?

McGee won't be here forever, we lost Greer...Youboty in his limited time has, well, sucked...

You don't build a team with only one year in mind, you build for future years.

[ServoBillieves]

Sure, he's a great player, but you'd sacrifice a pass rusher, either DE or OLB, a guard, a TE, which could all easily be starters first day at pick 11, for something that we already have enough of?

Terrence, Leodis, Drayton, Ashton, and Reggie can get the job done. If Terrance moves on? So do we. Address it next year, not in a pivotal year in a very strong division.

[yordad]

Maybe he likes you and is interested in you as much as he is for DBs "quest for love..."Your a stalker.

[yordad]

It was Clump.

I am now worried that Yordad is going to tell the cops that I am the one that left the body he found.Like I said, it is always the Doctor. Muhhhhaha

[Block "O"]

Solid pick IMO LOL I am biased as I got to know Jenkins a little bit. BTW Charles Davis is my favorite analyst on the NFLN.

But I think he's going with best available player strategy, because if we take a DE it will most likely be the 3rd best DE in an already weak as hell DE draft class

[clumping platelets]

:ontome:

[jamze132]

Your a stalker.
You're...

[Michael82]

I would vomit if we took a DB in the first round with as many holes as we currently have. DE, LB, OT, Raji, Crabtree are fine. Anything else would really piss me off and that includes a TE. :ill:

[Crisis]

It's not a bad pick depending who's left on the board

jenkins is probably the only DB in the first who i could live with depending on the circumstances

[Jan Reimers]

We are the CB incubator for the rest of the NFL. We draft 'em high (or medium, or low, or sign them as UDFAs), develop them, then let them walk. All the while, we ignore the festering holes at any number of equally important positions.

Here's to our brilliant strategy and 9 straight seasons with no playoffs!

[Yasgur's Farm]

Jenkins has to be considered at 11 under certain circumstances. If Curry, Crabtree, Raji, Orakpo, Brown, J. Smith, and Monroe are all gone, and we can't work a trade down, we'd have to consider someone like DB Jenkins or WR Maclin.

We can't throw top 10 value out the window just to deep reach for need. And obviously there's some need at the CB position... Hell, we'd have to consider QB's Stafford or Sanchez even.

[X-Era]

Jenkins has to be considered at 11 under certain circumstances. If Curry, Crabtree, Raji, Orakpo, Brown, J. Smith, and Monroe are all gone, and we can't work a trade down, we'd have to consider someone like DB Jenkins or WR Maclin.

We can't throw top 10 value out the window just to deep reach for need. And obviously there's some need at the CB position... Hell, we'd have to consider QB's Stafford or Sanchez even.

I agree with this.

Crabtree, Maclin, have to be looked at. We may then think about trading down, but whomever falls out of the top 10 must be considered.

[Dr. Lecter]

I would vomit if we took a DB in the first round with as many holes as we currently have. DE, LB, OT, Raji, Crabtree are fine. Anything else would really piss me off and that includes a TE. :ill:

And if there is nobody at that one of those positions worth the #11 pick?

The USC LBs are north worth #11. Ayers is not. Maybin is not.

So if Curry, Orakpo, Raji, Crabtree and the 4 OT's are gone who should they take?

[TacklingDummy]

Nobody really knows what pick any player is worth. It could turn out that the 20th pick is a better player than the 11th pick. That argument is weak. Is Nick Mangold (29) not worth more than Donte Whitner (8th)?

[Ron Burgundy]

And if there is nobody at that one of those positions worth the #11 pick?

The USC LBs are north worth #11. Ayers is not. Maybin is not.

So if Curry, Orakpo, Raji, Crabtree and the 4 OT's are gone who should they take?
This is an interesting trap you're falling into.

"Worth" is determined by how good the player turns out to be.

I don't give a good ******* what the analysts say, if Maybin or Jenkins or Cushing or Josh Freeman or Clint ****ing Sinstim or whoever turns out to be an excellent player, then they were "worth" the 11th pick.

[Ron Burgundy]

Nobody really knows what pick any player is worth. It could turn out that the 20th pick is a better player than the 11th pick. That argument is weak. Is Nick Mangold (29) not worth more than Donte Whitner (8th)?
Ah, you beat me to it. Well done.

[Dr. Lecter]

Good.

Since you two are the masters of hindsight and predicting the future, then tell me who the Bills should take? Hell, why not throw names into a hat and pick one at random. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so obviously 6th round picks are better than first round picks.

Fact is all that teams have to go on now is a guys college playing career and his combine results. The current evaluation of these players do not show them being worth the #11 pick.

I thought that part was implied in what has been said.

By the same token, Jenkins could end up being the next Deion Sanders or Darrell Green. So why would you not want to take him, even if the Bills already have McKelvin, McGee, Corner and Youboty?

The argument goes both ways. We all know that the draft is a partial crapshoot. What a team should do, is try and limit the amount of crap they are picking.

[Dr. Lecter]

Ah, you beat me to it. Well done.

Not really, unless you have a crystal ball.

[X-Era]

Good.

Since you two are the masters of hindsight and predicting the future, then tell me who the Bills should take? Hell, why not throw names into a hat and pick one at random. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so obviously 6th round picks are better than first round picks.

Fact is all that teams have to go on now is a guys college playing career and his combine results. The current evaluation of these players do not show them being worth the #11 pick.

I thought that part was implied in what has been said.

By the same token, Jenkins could end up being the next Deion Sanders or Darrell Green. So why would you not want to take him, even if the Bills already have McKelvin, McGee, Corner and Youboty?

The argument goes both ways. We all know that the draft is a partial crapshoot. What a team should do, is try and limit the amount of crap they are picking.
I agree.

I dont think you can go BPA completely... I think need must also be a part of it... but going solely on need can make a team miss a great bargain.

I think if the Bills would be more open to making moves in free agency and trades, we could possibly get better quicker. Seems like a stupid statement, let me be more specific. If we were to take a player at a lesser need because he somehow dropped like, say, Crabtree we could supplement the unfilled needs by other means such as trades or signing solid free agents.

Of course, if it were me, I would have signed semi-solid players at a few needs so that we go into the draft needing less. That way taking BPA becomes an even better option.

Instead, we are going in with 4 big needs which likely means were trying to fill one all the way into the 4th round... Im not a huge fan of that plan. I think the failure rate for rookies vs. the round they are taken is exponential where the number of busts may double for each round outisde of the 1st. I think the number for 1st rounders is like 50%, maybe less.

Thats why Im a bigger fan of earlier and more often. But in the end, its all a crapshoot. One of my biggest problems with the Bills is they rely WAY too heavily on the draft.

[TigerJ]

I would not be thrilled with a defensive back at #11, but I can accept that circumstances could lead that to being the best available player when pick #11 rolls around.

[Saratoga Slim]

I agree that BPA is the ideal policy so that you build for the long term through the draft. As far as the secondary goes, I think we're doing well in terms of building for the long term. With Greer gone we've got a much better likelihood of resigning McGee. Leodis is here for the foreseeable future. Right now, Corner & Youboty are role players that could develop into good ones (Youboty looked solid before getting injured last year). We have Florence as a short term addition. I think that we've got secondary that is built with a long term approach, and I have no problem if we keep looking to improve it. But, with our current needs on the DL & OL, I'm not very high on doing so in the early rounds. The depth we have in the secondary creates the perfect situation for us to take some mid and later round risk/reward type players to see if we can find a gem. IMO THAT's how we should be looking at building the secondary now.

Would our secondary look great with McGee/Leodis/Whitner/Jenkins? Absolutely. But McGee/Leodis/Whitner/Scott will probably look great too if we upgrade our pass rush, and thus I want to see our early round focus on our needs at DL/OL/LB. I'm fine with using a BPA approach during those rounds to ensure that we do the best possible job of making appropriate "value" picks with regard to those needs, but nonetheless, I think we have another year of not having the luxury of taking a true BPA approach--i.e. one that would permit us to grab Jenkins.

[DraftBoy]

For this mock Jenkins is a bad pick because Raji is on the board at 11, hwoever in general Jenkins is far from being a bad pick. Ive gone over why in great detail in other threads.

[jamze132]

Good.

Since you two are the masters of hindsight and predicting the future, then tell me who the Bills should take? Hell, why not throw names into a hat and pick one at random. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so obviously 6th round picks are better than first round picks.

Fact is all that teams have to go on now is a guys college playing career and his combine results. The current evaluation of these players do not show them being worth the #11 pick.

I thought that part was implied in what has been said.

By the same token, Jenkins could end up being the next Deion Sanders or Darrell Green. So why would you not want to take him, even if the Bills already have McKelvin, McGee, Corner and Youboty?

The argument goes both ways. We all know that the draft is a partial crapshoot. What a team should do, is try and limit the amount of crap they are picking.
Aside from the Patriots FO, I was the only person in the world who thought Brady would be an amazing QB.

Want this year's prediction? Raji will be the best player in this class.

[DraftBoy]

Aside from the Patriots FO, I was the only person in the world who thought Brady would be an amazing QB.

Want this year's prediction? Raji will be the best player in this class.
That's not really going out on a limb like it would been with Brady. He's by far the best DT in this class and has been compared to Sapp.

[Ron Burgundy]

Good.

Since you two are the masters of hindsight and predicting the future, then tell me who the Bills should take? Hell, why not throw names into a hat and pick one at random. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, so obviously 6th round picks are better than first round picks.

Fact is all that teams have to go on now is a guys college playing career and his combine results. The current evaluation of these players do not show them being worth the #11 pick.

I thought that part was implied in what has been said.

By the same token, Jenkins could end up being the next Deion Sanders or Darrell Green. So why would you not want to take him, even if the Bills already have McKelvin, McGee, Corner and Youboty?

The argument goes both ways. We all know that the draft is a partial crapshoot. What a team should do, is try and limit the amount of crap they are picking.
I have no idea who to take, actually. If I had my druthers, I'd go with Aaron Maybin.

My guess is as good as anyone's, I suppose. I just have a hard time disparaging some guys who most experts think are at least good enough to be first round picks by saying they're "not worth" a certain spot in the draft.

I'm also not going to say that some linebacker or Ayers aren't worth the number 11 pick. That sounds like something that a guy who wanted to draft Mike Nugent with a second rounder would say.

[jamze132]

That's not really going out on a limb like it would been with Brady. He's by far the best DT in this class and has been compared to Sapp.
Hey, it's not my fault that a guy that will be taken in the first is going to be the best player in the class.

I think my scouting abilities are massively under-rated.

[Philagape]

Another problem with "value" is that teams inevitably disagree on the draft value of players (not to mention the multitude of draft "experts," which I don't give a crap about). Someone may be No. 10 on one team's board and No. 20 on another team's. There's no consensus. Mock drafts are all over the place, which is just one reason why they're worthless for actual decision-making.
Teams have to go by their own board, and they'll be judged by how the players on their board did. No team should ever have their pick dictated to them by so-called "experts." There's no such thing, not when people who do this for a living turn out to be wrong so often.
If a team wants a certain player, they should get him, no matter what anyone else thinks. It's absurd to take a player you don't really want because that's his "value" slot.

[DraftBoy]

Hey, it's not my fault that a guy that will be taken in the first is going to be the best player in the class.

I think my scouting abilities are massively under-rated.

Im not disagreeing with you, but when you go accurately calling Brady a great QB when he was taken in the 6th Round to saying a top 5 guy is going to be the best then that's a little underwhelming. I mean a few years ago I called the Colston kid prior to the draft as a sleeper WR to really watch, and he proved me right. I prefer to concentrate on lower round players from smaller schools who everbody doesnt know. I think Raji has a great shot to be the best but he has drug issues, and there are questions about how smart he is (not that it matter playing DT) and can he make the right decisions when he suddenly has millions of dollars in front of him.

[DraftBoy]

Another problem with "value" is that teams inevitably disagree on the draft value of players (not to mention the multitude of draft "experts," which I don't give a crap about). Someone may be No. 10 on one team's board and No. 20 on another team's. There's no consensus. Mock drafts are all over the place, which is just one reason why they're worthless for actual decision-making.
Teams have to go by their own board, and they'll be judged by how the players on their board did. No team should ever have their pick dictated to them by so-called "experts." There's no such thing, not when people who do this for a living turn out to be wrong so often.
If a team wants a certain player, they should get him, no matter what anyone else thinks. It's absurd to take a player you don't really want because that's his "value" slot.

But that's not reality, most of the draft boards in the league for the most accurately reflect the value and alot of the experts get the value right, which is why every year yes you see some guy who a Kiper or Mayock had high value wise fall a few rounds but you don't see them have 10 or 20 guys. There is a reason these guys are on TV because for everyone they get wrong that all the fans remeber they get 20 right that nobody seems to want to recall. You're right overall though that you have to go by your own teams board, but you also have to expect to be called out for that pick if your value is off from another's board. If you're a team like the Patriots who are the best at doing that then you're given some slack and not criticized if you're a team like the Bills you get absolutely no room for making a move like that because you've been wrong time and time again.

[Philagape]

When I said experts get it wrong a lot, I don't mean how well their picks match the actual draft; I'm referring to the bust rate, which is higher than 1 in 20. And the "gem" rate.
The only barometer of draft success or expertise is how well players do in the NFL. Teams should be called out for when they get that wrong.
And a lot of guys are on TV because they are slick and have big mouths and do their homework. Doesn't make them experts.

[DraftBoy]

But they are right far more often then they are wrong. You can't argue that fact. Is it 1 for 20 I don't know could be higher or lower, some people have actually studied that stuff and kiper now (I'm using him because he is the most well known) rarely ever calls anybody out or gives a negative scouting report anymore so I don't really know how you quantify that in terms of wrong and right. If you don't like them because they are on TV, are slick, or have big mouths that's one thing. But these guys are the best in the business and every GM in the league converses with them and listens to what they have to say, whether they believe it or not is a different story.

[yordad]

I think Ayers agent paid Kiper off. :chuckle:

[Philagape]

In 2002 three of the top four picks were Carr, Harrington and Mike Williams. Other first-rounders included William Green, Wendell Bryant, Duckett, Lelie and Patrick Ramsey. That's without getting to the merely mediocre.
That's what I mean. That was a particularly bad year, but there are enough of those every year to make my point.
Or, look at it from a team standpoint: Buffalo. Detroit. Cleveland. Cincinnati. That's one in eight, without even getting to the merely inconsistent. That's too high for me.
When the people who make the actual decisions are wrong that often, I'm certainly not going to accept any talking heads as "experts," because they're no better.
Some teams/talking heads are better than others, but expertise is not relative.

[DraftBoy]

2002 was known league wide going into the draft that it was a bad year talent wise. What is your point? We all knew 02 was a bad draft year going into it. I'm sure many (myself included) expected a few more successes but not many.

[Philagape]

2002 was known league wide going into the draft that it was a bad year talent wise. What is your point? We all knew 02 was a bad draft year going into it. I'm sure many (myself included) expected a few more successes but not many.

You answered your question.

[Canadian'eh!]

I wouldn't take him personally... but i thought most scouts see him at FS now anyway?

[DraftBoy]

You answered your question.

That most scouts, and experts gets more right than wrong? So what the hell was your point of carrying on then??

[DraftBoy]

I wouldn't take him personally... but i thought most scouts see him at FS now anyway?

No, he had some slow 40 times which has made some people say he should move to FS where he has experience playing. But his speed was never an issue at Ohio State against some top talent so Im not concerned about it.

[Philagape]

That most scouts, and experts gets more right than wrong? So what the hell was your point of carrying on then??

The point is "more right than wrong" isn't good enough for me. A 15-year-old who buys a draft mag the night before the draft can do that.

Think of it like a letter grading scale on a school test or course. You have to get 70 percent right just to get a C. To be considered an "expert" on the material, I'd think one would need an A, and that's at least 90 percent. You can get more right than wrong and still fail.

[DraftBoy]

The point is "more right than wrong" isn't good enough for me.

Think of it like a letter grading scale on a school test. You have to get 70 percent right just to get a C. To be considered an "expert" on the material, I'd think one would need an A, and that's at least 90 percent. You can get more right than wrong and still fail.


And unless you can prove these guys don't get said 90 percent then your point is based on conjecture rather than fact. Like I said in my first response for every 1 these guys get wrong there are like 20 they get right. Its a lot easier to recall who they miss on rather than who they hit on.

[Canadian'eh!]

No, he had some slow 40 times which has made some people say he should move to FS where he has experience playing. But his speed was never an issue at Ohio State against some top talent so Im not concerned about it.

Well. A CB that lacks makeup speed usually doens't last long in the NFL. It's a big difference between college and the NFL where EVERYONE is fast.

[DraftBoy]

Well. A CB that lacks makeup speed usually doens't last long in the NFL. It's a big difference between college and the NFL where EVERYONE is fast.

I dont think he lacks makeup speed, never showed any signs of it college and now he runs two slower than expected 40yd dash times and we are supposed to believe his previous 4 years of play don't matter anymore?

[justasportsfan]

bills love stockpilling cb's and then letting them go to FA'cy. Winfield and Clements come to mind. Greer this year then McGee most likely next year, so on and so forth so I wouldn't be surprised if we grabbed a cb this year and then ignore the OL.

[Canadian'eh!]

I dont think he lacks makeup speed, never showed any signs of it college and now he runs two slower than expected 40yd dash times and we are supposed to believe his previous 4 years of play don't matter anymore?

well, maybe there was a reason for the slow times. Bottom line is, if we weren't resigning McGee this year, then we SHOULD have kept Greer. this leads me to think they will be Keeping McGee well past this year.

In which case this is a completely senseless pick as a CB.

[Philagape]

And unless you can prove these guys don't get said 90 percent then your point is based on conjecture rather than fact. Like I said in my first response for every 1 these guys get wrong there are like 20 they get right. Its a lot easier to recall who they miss on rather than who they hit on.

I don't think research is necessary to confidently say that the bust/disappointment rate is higher than 1 in 20. Or even 1 in 10. You need to prove that first.

[DraftBoy]

I don't think research is necessary to confidently say that the bust/disappointment rate is higher than 1 in 20. Or even 1 in 10. You need to prove that first.

The burden of proof lies on the accuser or prosecution. You know that, prove your point then I will counter.

[Philagape]

The burden of proof lies on the accuser or prosecution. You know that, prove your point then I will counter.

Well, a 90 percent success rate means there can't be any more than three busts/disappointments in a typical first round.

2001: Terrell, Gardner, Freddie Mitchell, Middlebrooks
2002: aforementioned
2003: Charles Rogers, Sullivan, Boller, Grossman
2004: Gallery, Reggie Williams, Michael Clayton, Losman
2005: Alex Smith, Benson, Williamson, Mike Williams

That's a trend. And those are just from quick glances, I'm sure there are more, especially guys who aren't really busts but haven't played up to their draft position.
And that's not going into the second round, although the lower the round, the lower the expectations, that's why I stuck to the first round. But that brings up late-round gems who the "experts" miss.

So now that 1 in 10 has been shot down, where do you get 1 in 20?

[Philagape]

And even in this debate, we're talking about trends and numbers and definitions and degrees that can't necessarily be proven or disproven. Matters of subjective opinion, and a lot of gray areas, which is also part of my original point.

[jamze132]

Im not disagreeing with you, but when you go accurately calling Brady a great QB when he was taken in the 6th Round to saying a top 5 guy is going to be the best then that's a little underwhelming. I mean a few years ago I called the Colston kid prior to the draft as a sleeper WR to really watch, and he proved me right. I prefer to concentrate on lower round players from smaller schools who everbody doesnt know. I think Raji has a great shot to be the best but he has drug issues, and there are questions about how smart he is (not that it matter playing DT) and can he make the right decisions when he suddenly has millions of dollars in front of him.
I also knew that Chris Watson would turn out to be a douche.

[kid mickey]

LOL, some on here agree with this dude. Not me. I would throw a real brick through my big screen, not a fake styrofoam one.

No way dude, before you throw a brick through your T.V just give it to me.