The Coming Purge

[bob86]

Someone once said that you have to look to history to see the future. In the case of the Bills, to understand what is going on with the team I think you have to look to Ralph’s past. A product of the Great Depression, Ralph knows in hard times, you cut back. And in these hard times, Ralph is cutting back.

The release of Doc (prior to paying a roster bonus) and Royal saved Ralph actual money, not some pie in the sky salary cap accounting money, but real hard cash. Likewise, not signing Peters to a new contract saved Ralph a lot of currency. Now the proposed trade (or release) of Simpson, Parrish and Kelsay, all will save the team millions in salary. Even the T.O. signing was only for one year and it more than paid for itself in terms of false excitement and increased season ticket sales. All the other free agent signings were for lower level players and not for much money. The extension of Stroud I think was part of the deal from last year, so it is an exception.

I am not saying that all of these moves are bad football moves – Lord knows Royal needed to go – but I am saying that economics are playing a much bigger role in what is going on with the Bills than most fans appreciate. What is concerning is that next year there will be no minimum salary cap and Ralph can save a massive amount of money by dumping salary prior to the 2010 season and all of that savings goes directly in his pocket. And I think he will certainly do that if it looks like a lock-out is coming in 2011.

This all means that the Bills will draft this coming weekend for replacements for high-priced players they will be released in the coming purge --namely, Schobel (http://www.buffalobills.com/team/roster/Aaron-Schobel/d95551cd-2385-484c-92a9-d402ae6bee39), Denney, McGee, and possibly Whitner (http://www.buffalobills.com/team/roster/Donte-Whitner/e9a05bf2-0ea7-4ef4-9882-e6e7730540b3) and Walker.

So, like everyone else I look for a DE in the first round but not to help the pass rush but to replace Schobel who will be gone much sooner than many expected. By 2010, we will have a new pair of starting DE’s. I also see more DB’s taken in this draft to replace McGee (who will be gone, if he wants going market value for a starting CB) and possibly Whitner. We also may see an OT taken not to replace Peters, but Walker after next season.

The bottom line is that the Bills will be drafting to not only fill holes that currently exist, but also holes they will be creating.

[justasportsfan]

I can see the same thing that happened with Peters happening again if we end up moving Walker to LT and he does well and see's how much LT's will make in the uncapped year. I'm sure he'll want more especially since he was signed as a RT. After all Peters was supposedly his buddy just like Spikes was Clements buddy. They all followed each other out of the team.

[Oaf]

We should have done this years ago. How can we possibly START rebuilding now after 7 seasons of mediocrity?

[jimbohastle51]

i really like the dominic rhodes signing ALOT!! i think he is a young 30 and easily could start if we needed him too. he also is a capable and willing blocker and has a sweet set of hands out of the backfield. we will have a 3 headed monster this season not just a 2 headed one. rhodes will get carries. T.O. i liked the signing but i dont think that a couple rookies on the left side with hangartner as our center are going to make our offense any better than last year, in fact i think we are worse unless we get a vetran to pay guard or LT and then i could handle a rookie at the other position. i dont feel that economics are playing a role at all besides keeping the ticket prices low. we havnt saved a TON of money by cutting the players we've cut. and seriously if you really look at it the money we saved by cutting dockery basically went in T.O.'s pocket in the form of 6.5 million guaranteed. i think we are a cheap team as far as not really wanting to pay players big money up front. yes they gave marcus stroud a big extension but non of it was signing bonus, and they cant still cut him next season and basically whipe themselves clean of it. and dont buy into the whole peters had a contract and whatnot either, he was given an extension early yes but it was for RT and after making a pro bowl he wanted a fair contract for a LT, and i know we have heard the heirocy rumors of what he was offered but the truth is the bills didnt want to give him a monster signing bonus and have to write a check that was possibly 20 million the day he signed the contract, as well as at least 3/4 of his year salary would be guaranteed. its not the economy effecting us, it is our owner effecting us. T.O. has already paid half his salary in jersey sales, i am sure. as far as drafting replacements, teams are always trying to draft replacements. really though, mcgee with be resigned after the season. with his age and because they gave him his second contract at the perfect time he will not get elite number 1 corner money and the bills know they need to keep him as well as he has been saying publicly that he wants to finish in buffalo. schobel is getting up there and if he has his normal 8019 sacks a year season he'll be back, if not it isnt like we are replacing dwight freeney or anything. i hate to put him down but he hasnt bee a 14 sack a year average guy, he wont be that hard to replace. whitner could be replaced with an undrafted free agent the way he has played. the move to FS isnt because we needed the spot filled as much as it is whitner was failing miserably at SS. denney will be 34 and might just retire anyways, if not we could keep him for peanuts if we so choose and walker really is good value at 5 million a year. he can play both tackle spots and has done a nice job (not pro bowl level) but he has played 5 million a year ball (5 million is not big money for a tackle). again economics will not keep us from signing any of these players.

[TigerJ]

What I think is:

The contract issues that led to the trade of Jason Peters was unrelated to the economy. It had more to do the resentment of the Bills toward what they felt was Peters renegging on his contract too soon after he signed it. Peters felt that since the Bills had given Dockery such a big contract and had moved him to the higher priority position of left tackle, they should pay him more, but the Bills felt they had built incentives into the contract that covered the move to left tackle. When Peters held out of training camp then played like crap in the regular season, they felt he had no business making the kind of salary demands he made when they finally were willing to renegotiate. They weren't going to cave and Peters wasn't willing to compromise, so the trade was inevitable.

I think that Wilson understands that ultimately the economic fate of the Bills is linked to the economic fate of the league. If fans sense he is willing to put an inferior product on the field relative to the rest of the league, they will abandon the team like they did in the 70s. It hasn't happened yet because enough of us think the Bills are still trying and were victims of their own poor judgement. It won't do any good for Wilson to save money if he's not bringing any revenue in through ticket and merchandise sales.

Kelsay, Simpson and Parrish are all being shopped not for economic reasons alone but because their value to the team is not enough to warrant keeping them. The pass rush isn't going to get better if they don't bring in new blood and they can't bring in new blood if roster space is being occupied by tired old veterans. Simpson is not smart enough to be counted on making right decisions in coverage calls and his onw responsibilities. Parrish has proven to be very one dimensional (a punt returner). Buffalo has too many receivers they like as receivers to keep a guy who is never going to be much more than a punt returner.

[Oaf]

i really like the dominic rhodes signing ALOT!! i think he is a young 30 and easily could start if we needed him too. he also is a capable and willing blocker and has a sweet set of hands out of the backfield. we will have a 3 headed monster this season not just a 2 headed one. rhodes will get carries. T.O. i liked the signing but i dont think that a couple rookies on the left side with hangartner as our center are going to make our offense any better than last year, in fact i think we are worse unless we get a vetran to pay guard or LT and then i could handle a rookie at the other position. i dont feel that economics are playing a role at all besides keeping the ticket prices low. we havnt saved a TON of money by cutting the players we've cut. and seriously if you really look at it the money we saved by cutting dockery basically went in T.O.'s pocket in the form of 6.5 million guaranteed. i think we are a cheap team as far as not really wanting to pay players big money up front. yes they gave marcus stroud a big extension but non of it was signing bonus, and they cant still cut him next season and basically whipe themselves clean of it. and dont buy into the whole peters had a contract and whatnot either, he was given an extension early yes but it was for RT and after making a pro bowl he wanted a fair contract for a LT, and i know we have heard the heirocy rumors of what he was offered but the truth is the bills didnt want to give him a monster signing bonus and have to write a check that was possibly 20 million the day he signed the contract, as well as at least 3/4 of his year salary would be guaranteed. its not the economy effecting us, it is our owner effecting us. T.O. has already paid half his salary in jersey sales, i am sure. as far as drafting replacements, teams are always trying to draft replacements. really though, mcgee with be resigned after the season. with his age and because they gave him his second contract at the perfect time he will not get elite number 1 corner money and the bills know they need to keep him as well as he has been saying publicly that he wants to finish in buffalo. schobel is getting up there and if he has his normal 8019 sacks a year season he'll be back, if not it isnt like we are replacing dwight freeney or anything. i hate to put him down but he hasnt bee a 14 sack a year average guy, he wont be that hard to replace. whitner could be replaced with an undrafted free agent the way he has played. the move to FS isnt because we needed the spot filled as much as it is whitner was failing miserably at SS. denney will be 34 and might just retire anyways, if not we could keep him for peanuts if we so choose and walker really is good value at 5 million a year. he can play both tackle spots and has done a nice job (not pro bowl level) but he has played 5 million a year ball (5 million is not big money for a tackle). again economics will not keep us from signing any of these players.
That's a hell of a wall. 0_o

[trapezeus]

i think there is truth in this. FA overall has been pretty quiet. i think everyone knows the elephant in the room is the CBA and uncapped year.

I'm not sure when the next TV deal comes up, but it will take some incredible fortune for the stations to pay out the same numbers.

The pessimist in me says, "damn them bills. They are screwing us."

The part of me who watched the last 6 months of the US economy says, "paying big contracts doesn't always keep your company from going under. so you get hungry guys who want it could totally surprise people."

So those two thoughts battle it out in my head, but if you asked for money on which way i think, i'd go with the pessimist. 9 years of futility and another year of following the old model makes me believe 2009 is worse than 2008.

[OpIv37]

I thought this thread was about what happens to a bulimic after lunch.