Do we even want Pettrigrew at 28?

[OpIv37]

2007: People are discussing Lynch or Poz with our pick. We end up getting both.

2008: People are discussing Hardy or McKelvin (amongst others) with our pick. We end up getting both.

Neither Poz nor Hardy have been particularly effective so far (however, they're both young and still may turn it around). The point is that we need immediate help, and when guys slip, there's a reason for it. If Pettigrew lasts til 28, it means a lot of teams saw some pretty big flaws.

[The Juice Is Loose]

I love Poz. Last year was pretty much his first year. You can't judge a guy who broke his arm. And in 09 I felt like he was an inch away so many times. That inch gets made up with some experience. And he had a pick or two towards the end of the year that convinces me that.

Hardy is exactly who we thought he was. We just refused to use him for what we planned to use him for. Which is goal line. He got 2 goal line throws last year, and caught both for touchdowns.

I have this feeling about Pettigrew that I don't usually get. I just have this hunch, with no explaination, that he's going to be the next Tony Gonzalez. I honestly do.

If he's there at 28, without a doubt, he's the pick.

[Dr. Lecter]

2007: People are discussing Lynch or Poz with our pick. We end up getting both.

2008: People are discussing Hardy or McKelvin (amongst others) with our pick. We end up getting both.

Neither Poz nor Hardy have been particularly effective so far (however, they're both young and still may turn it around). The point is that we need immediate help, and when guys slip, there's a reason for it. If Pettigrew lasts til 28, it means a lot of teams saw some pretty big flaws.
Your last assertion is a bit odd and is not a completely logical statement. Getting drafted at 28 is not indicative of "pretty big flaws". Aren't "pretty big flaws" more for later round picks? Furthermore, wouldn't then ANY pick at 28 have flaws as well? If Ayers or Britton or Lauritias or any of the other names that have been discussed fall to 28, would you blame that only on a player's flaws? Why would Pettigrew be different than them? Why do you, every year, think a pick is only good if he is an immediate stud? Some, in fact most, rookies are not immediate impact guys.

Players slip for a number of reasons, including being at a position that teams might not be looking for. Or other players being available that are better fits.

[raphael120]

Who were the big touter TE's from last season? I know Jets got the one guy...he scored a little bit...and then the Redskins got some other guy, who couldn't even wake up on time to get to camp.

I honestly think if we draft a TE, he's not going to help us much this season at all, and we all know how overprotective Jauron likes to be with our rookies. He only plays them unless he absolutely HAS to, and even then, it's shaky. (Rememeber the game where McGee was hobbled and Ted Ginn had a career day on him, yet we don't put in McKelvin...)

[yordad]

Yes. 28 would be a bit of alright.

[psubills62]

It depends on who is there. Teams may pass on Pettigrew simply because there's a better player at a position of greater need that they can take.

I personally don't think Pettigrew will last until 28, but there's always a chance.

And yes, I believe that if Pettigrew is at 28, then we should take him.

[OpIv37]

Your last assertion is a bit odd and is not a completely logical statement. Getting drafted at 28 is not indicative of "pretty big flaws". Aren't "pretty big flaws" more for later round picks? Furthermore, wouldn't then ANY pick at 28 have flaws as well? If Ayers or Britton or Lauritias or any of the other names that have been discussed fall to 28, would you blame that only on a player's flaws? Why would Pettigrew be different than them? Why do you, every year, think a pick is only good if he is an immediate stud? Some, in fact most, rookies are not immediate impact guys.

Players slip for a number of reasons, including being at a position that teams might not be looking for. Or other players being available that are better fits.

Let's put it this way- when a guy is slated to go around 11 and he goes at 28, there's a reason. Maybe "pretty big flaws" was a bad way of describing it, but it means a lot of teams saw something that made him not worthy of a higher pick.

I never said that players have to be immediately good to be considered studs. The problem is that we always go into the draft with several major holes and if we don't get IMMEDIATE help, then we lose. See the past 3 years as examples. So, while most teams don't get immediate help from their draft picks, they don't have the same need for the help that we do.

Hell, even when we properly develop prospects, it's useless because this team just opens up new holes. See Peters, Jason. We're constantly chasing our tails and the only way to break that cycle is to find immediate help in the draft. I know it's a long shot and I know it's not typically how it works in football, but right now that's our only option for winning in 09.

[yordad]

Let's put it this way- when a guy is slated to go around 11 and he goes at 28, there's a reason. Maybe "pretty big flaws" was a bad way of describing it, but it means a lot of teams saw something that made him not worthy of a higher pick.
Or maybe that player just happens to play tight end, which isn't the most coveted position. :idunno:

[psubills62]

Let's put it this way- when a guy is slated to go around 11 and he goes at 28, there's a reason. Maybe "pretty big flaws" was a bad way of describing it, but it means a lot of teams saw something that made him not worthy of a higher pick.

I never said that players have to be immediately good to be considered studs. The problem is that we always go into the draft with several major holes and if we don't get IMMEDIATE help, then we lose. See the past 3 years as examples. So, while most teams don't get immediate help from their draft picks, they don't have the same need for the help that we do.

Hell, even when we properly develop prospects, it's useless because this team just opens up new holes. See Peters, Jason. We're constantly chasing our tails and the only way to break that cycle is to find immediate help in the draft. I know it's a long shot and I know it's not typically how it works in football, but right now that's our only option for winning in 09.

I guess I would reply by saying that just because several mocks have him going at 11 doesn't mean those mock draft writers think he's an appropriate pick there. I can say that the Bills will pick Darry Beckwith at 11, but that doesn't mean I think he's the 11th best player.

So just because a guy is slated to go at 11 but falls to 28 doesn't always mean something. Sometimes it just means that other teams preferred other players.

I'd bet that the Browns valued Brady Quinn higher than #24...just not enough to take him at #3. But other teams didn't feel the need to draft him.

[Mitchell55]

Holy ****, Op actually said something nice.

[kernowboy]

I agree with both trains of thought.

Another idea on why someone might slide is that after assessment, teams might not think that the player is in fact, not that much better than someone who can be picked somewhere lower down in the draft.

Some are suggesting that Pettigrew is head and shoulders above others in the draft, but if teams feel the gap is in fact narrower between him and guys who are projected to go on Day2, then he could slide until someone bites the bullet.

It is not necessarily a measure of Pettigrew but also an assessment of other players at his position.

[Buddo]

There are a plethora of reasons why certain guys 'slide' and many of them are entirely disconnected to their individual talent.
Firstly, although a number of 'experts' have Pettigrew ranked in their 'top 10' talents of this draft, they also know full well, that the teams picking in the top 10, will have a greater need than a TE. The reason some have had him taken as high as #11, is that the Bills are a team that does want a TE. i.e. the first available spot for Pettigrew to be picked. Many of those predictions came before the Peters trade.
It's also fair to observe, that many of the other positions that will be taken, have more than one player of the type on the field at a time. e.g. Tackles, Ends etc. More teams will have a 'need' for one of those player types.
You also have the fact that there are teams starting to position themselves to either make trades, or to get themselves in a position where they can move up or down in the draft to get a player they like. Many of the early 'mocks' are far more about 'value' than what teams will actually do.
There are two QBs who probably aren't 'worth' a top 10 pick, who are going to go there, or very 'thereabouts' this year, in Sanchez and Freeman. That is far less about 'value' than about supply and demand. By all accounts, there are only 3 QBs worth much at all in this draft, and there are enough teams with a need at QB, that there 'price' in terms of where they are picked, will be driven up. Invariably that leads to other players 'slipping'. And so it goes.

[elltrain22]

If Pettigrew is there @28 we had better draft that kid, but I really doubt he'll be there.

[OpIv37]

I guess I would reply by saying that just because several mocks have him going at 11 doesn't mean those mock draft writers think he's an appropriate pick there. I can say that the Bills will pick Darry Beckwith at 11, but that doesn't mean I think he's the 11th best player.

So just because a guy is slated to go at 11 but falls to 28 doesn't always mean something. Sometimes it just means that other teams preferred other players.

I'd bet that the Browns valued Brady Quinn higher than #24...just not enough to take him at #3. But other teams didn't feel the need to draft him.

The last two times a guy was slated to go high and we ended up picking him up later, it didn't pay off (at least not in the short term). When you look at Quinn, he's done nothing in the NFL either. The point is that when guys slip from where they're projected, there's a reason.

[Jan Reimers]

We need OT and DE with our first 2 picks, and OLB and G/C after that. I wouldn't take a TE until the 3rd round, at the earliest.

[Mahdi]

No. I dont want Pettigrew at 28. I want 2 DL with the first 2 picks. The trade rumors involving Kelsay show me the Bills are going to make a serious effort to improve the DL and using the first 2 selections for DL players would be wise. I dont think the Bills are as comfortable with Schobel as we believe, they recognize that he is older now and that there is no guarantee his foot injury will be either completely healed or reoccurring.

I think we need to go with Ayers or Tyson Jackson at 11 and follow it up with Lawrence Sidbury or Larry English.

Then we can add a TE with our second round pick where there will be solid value.

3rd round can address the interior of the OL, (2) 4th round selections, one for a OT and one for a LB or SS.

[OpIv37]

Waiting til the 3rd round to address the OL is a HUGE mistake.

It still seems like some people aren't making the connection. A good portion of this season depends on how Trent Edwards plays, and Edwards will only be as good as the OL.

[ddaryl]

reaching for straws on this one.

if Pettigew is around at #28 it's just good fortune IMO. If w eaddress Dl and OL in our 1st 3 picks then we can burn a pick on a solid TE in there to IMO

[Mahdi]

Waiting til the 3rd round to address the OL is a HUGE mistake.

It still seems like some people aren't making the connection. A good portion of this season depends on how Trent Edwards plays, and Edwards will only be as good as the OL.
There will be plenty of OL talent left in the 3rd round. Especially for the interior OL. A good TE IMO is just as important for Trent as solid protection. Someone who can give Trent a big checkdown target other than the RBs will help him. Look how Romo used Witten when he first started, a TE is valuable to a young QB. Even Tyler Thigpen benefited from Tony G.

[Mahdi]

I keep hearing people comparing Pettigrew to Witten, which is simply not accurate. Witten ran a 4.65 which is way better than the 4.8 Pettigrew ran. Now I know its just a 40 but if you look at all the successful TEs in this league, they had great 40 times coming out.

Gates, Witten, Gonzalez, Shockey, Winslow, Watson, Dustin Keller, Heap, Olsen, Sharpe, Dallas Clark etc.

3 TEs who have done well while running in the 4.8 range... Heath Miller, Zach Miller, Chris Cooley

The odds of getting a great TE are better if you draft the more athletic ones that can grow into solid all-around prospects. Not the ones who are all around prospects with a low ceiling.

I want Nelson in the second roun, even before Cook.

[psubills62]

The last two times a guy was slated to go high and we ended up picking him up later, it didn't pay off (at least not in the short term). When you look at Quinn, he's done nothing in the NFL either. The point is that when guys slip from where they're projected, there's a reason.

I understand that. I'm just saying that the reason isn't always because he's a bad player.

While Edwards hasn't exactly been a savior, I think he's performed better than a 3rd-rounder would be expected to. Look at the other QB's from that draft - Drew Stanton supposedly isn't ready to play yet, Kevin Kolb was terrible when he was in, Brady Quinn was OK when he played, Jamarcus Russell, imo, is behind Edwards in terms of development, etc...

I guess I'm saying that also, teams may pass on a guy like Edwards but that doesn't mean they're making the right decision.

Again, I personally think it's a moot point because I don't believe for a second that Pettigrew will be there at 28.

[psubills62]

I keep hearing people comparing Pettigrew to Witten, which is simply not accurate. Witten ran a 4.65 which is way better than the 4.8 Pettigrew ran. Now I know its just a 40 but if you look at all the successful TEs in this league, they had great 40 times coming out.

Gates, Witten, Gonzalez, Shockey, Winslow, Watson, Dustin Keller, Heap, Olsen, Sharpe, Dallas Clark etc.

3 TEs who have done well while running in the 4.8 range... Heath Miller, Zach Miller, Chris Cooley

The odds of getting a great TE are better if you draft the more athletic ones that can grow into solid all-around prospects. Not the ones who are all around prospects with a low ceiling.

I want Nelson in the second roun, even before Cook.

I saw a scouting report on CBS that was very thorough and compared him to Jim Kleinsasser (spelling?), who I believe plays on the Vikings. CBS called both of them punishing blockers and underrated receivers in the short-yardage game.

[psubills62]

There will be plenty of OL talent left in the 3rd round. Especially for the interior OL. A good TE IMO is just as important for Trent as solid protection. Someone who can give Trent a big checkdown target other than the RBs will help him. Look how Romo used Witten when he first started, a TE is valuable to a young QB. Even Tyler Thigpen benefited from Tony G.

Completely agree with this. I think people underrate the importance of Edwards having a safety blanket with the ability of Pettigrew's.

[OpIv37]

Completely agree with this. I think people underrate the importance of Edwards having a safety blanket with the ability of Pettigrew's.

A safety blanket is a good idea. Some support before he has to rely on that safety blanket is an even better idea.

[psubills62]

A safety blanket is a good idea. Some support before he has to rely on that safety blanket is an even better idea.

I agree with that too. I'm not really talking about you in particular. There just seem to be a large number of people who absolutely hate the idea of taking Pettigrew simply because he can't stretch the seam.

[madness]

You can't take somebody who won't be there.