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Clump's Thoughts on the Draft
I've been a draftnik for nearly 25 yrs. My first real exposure was the 1985 draft when the Bills had the first pick. I was in basic training at Ft. Jackson, SC when I got a letter from a friend who told me about the Bills signing Bruce Smith. I was like, "who's Bruce Smith"? I knew little or nothing about the players and once I was sent to AIT at Ft. Sam Houston, TX, I came across a advertisement for Ourlads Scouting Services. I bought their draft guide and received it a couple of weeks before the draft. My free time was consumed by that guide and by draft day, I was well versed with nearly all the players who had extensive write ups. My only other information available was from the local San Antonio newspapers that focused on the Oilers and Cowboys. On draft day, I remember calling my friend Chris and asking who the Bills had chosen. He said "some center from Nebraska" and I said "hmmm......Mark Traynowicz. He's gonna be a good one". I was partially right. I still have all my Ourlads draft booklets but unfortunately my 1985 issue is coverless and rests inside a file folder. It sits next to all the others in my bookcase.
Draft weekend has been a holiday for me and I haven't missed one since. I remember watching the 1986 draft and wondering why the Bills would pass over Will Wolford for Ronnie Harmon only to see them later trade up to get Wolford. I remember wanting Rod Woodson over Shane Conlan. Still remember a friend's response to the drafting the Thurman Thomas. I also remember predicting the selection of Erik Flowers but categorically state that he wasn't my desired choice, that was John Engelberger. At least Engelberger is still playing.
In years past, I could spout details on many individual players and it would amaze some. However, since my interests changed towards the salary cap, I've been more interested in the needs of the team and what information is ultimately used in the decision making process of the actual selecting a player.
There are many variables that go into which players are ultimately chosen. Some variables are more important than others and the strength each variable has in the draft equation is different with each team. They also change over time when teams have new owners or coaching staffs. Look at it as though it's a multivariate equation:
Dp (drafted player) = a1(needs) + a2(free agency) + a3(age) + a4(salary cap) + a5(owners desires) + a6(value) + a7(public relations/connections) + a8(draft day) + a9(player demands) + a10(coaching/schemes) + e
Basically, a1 thru a10 are called the "strength coefficients" and the sum is 1 (which in essence equals 100%). The last variable, e, is for "the unexpected" like a last minute injury or legal issue. If a5 = 1, all others are zero and basically means that the owner makes the decision on who is drafted. The closer the strength coefficient is to 1, the greater the impact of that variable is on drafting a player. Now it's apparent that some of these variables overlap. Needs result from free agency losses and gains and vice versa. Owner desires can include some review of team needs and salary cap situation. But by draft day, needs are post-free agency and free agency can be future free agency concerns. The "draft day" variable takes into account how the draft plays out and also what players a team has already drafted. However, I hope most of these variables are self explanatory. I could actually expand the variables to include "legal issues", "personal conduct", "instincts", and "affordability" (obviously in play for #1 overall). I'm sure others could be explored but I'm hoping those reading understand my point and that the art of drafting is a complex undertaking. Some of these variables are never taken into account when draftniks mull over various mock drafts whether they are reading and producing their own.
Without a doubt, the Bills needs in the draft have been reviewed ad nauseum. Thus, no great detail is necessary but I will just highlight what I perceive to be those needs and then follow up with my 2 round mock draft and final Bills 7 rd mock. Needs are as follows:
1) Pass Rush: I list it as pass rush because pass rush can come from positions other than DE. I honestly believe the Bills have some solid players on the DL but they lack the speed rusher in the mold of a Dwight Freeney and the ability to generate "up the middle" pressure. Helping the pass rush can come from drafting or trading for help on the defensive front 7. DE, DT, or LB. It can also come from better talent in the secondary, especially a big, physical CB that can match up against the bigger WR's in the league. I'm sick of seeing Terrence McGee lining up against a Braylon Edwards on 3rd down. With this all being said, age also plays a role here because Schobel, Denney, Kelsay, and Stroud are all over 30.
2) Offensive Line: Right now, I believe the Bills should keep the right side intact with Butler at RG and Walker at RT. Maintain as much continuity as possible. Hangartner was signed in free agency to take over at center and after Fowler and Preston, that's an upgrade IMHO. The left side is in flux and in need of an infusion of talent. We know the Bills are gonna say that they are happy with Chambers and D. Bell at LT or LG and confident in late free agent addition, McKinney, to provide depth inside. However, happy talk will not keep Trent off his backside. Bills must add talent to the OL. Especially at OT.
3) Linebacker: This is a greater need than DL IMO. Teams have been able to move the ball against our defense because they can attack a major weaknesses of the defense seemingly at will. Lack of speed at LB is a major reason. Neither Mitchell or Posluszny are speed demons. Ellison has better speed but is physically outmatched. Bills need an "all around-3 down" LB who can help on the pass rush, cover backs or TE's, and also hold up against the run.
4) Tight End: Bills have a real need for an all around TE. One that can be an effective blocker both in the running game and pass protection. This TE also needs to effective in the deep middle seams.
5) Secondary: Bills secondary consistently loses when matched up vs bigger WRs. Must get more physical at CB and need some depth inside at SS because of an apparent switch of Donte Whitner to FS. McGee is UFA, Youboty RFA, and Simpson is on the block
Trades:
1) Seattle sends #4 and 5th 2010 to NYJ for #17, #52, and 1st 2010
2) Oakland sends #7 and #216 to SF for #10, #74, and 4th 2010
3) New Orleans sends #14 to Phil for #21 and #53
4) Atlanta sends #24 to Cleveland for #36 and #104
5) Tennessee sends #30 and #130 to NE for #34 and #89
6) NY Giants sends #45, #238, and 2nd 2010 to Cleveland for #50 and WR Edwards
7) Miami sends #56 and cond 2010 to Arizona for WR Boldin
Mock Draft - 1st Round
1) Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia)
2) St. Louis: OT Jason Smith (Baylor)
3) Kansas City: LB Aaron Curry (Wake Forest)
4) NY Jets (Seattle): QB Mark Sanchez (USC)
5) Cleveland: DT B. J. Raji (Boston College)
6) Cincinnati: OT Andre Smith (Alabama)
7) San Francisco (Oakland): DE Tyson Jackson (LSU)
8) Jacksonville: WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)
9) Green Bay: OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia)
10)Oakland (SF): WR Percy Harvin (Florida)
11)Buffalo: DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)
12)Denver: DE Robert Ayers (Tennessee)
13)Washington: OT Michael Oher (Mississippi)
14)Philadelphia (NO): RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
15)Houston: CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio St)
16)San Diego: DE Aaron Maybin (Penn St)
17)Seattle (NYJ): LB Clay Matthews (USC)
18)Denver (Chi): WR Jeremy Macklin (Missouri)
19)Tampa Bay: QB Josh Freeman (Kansas St)
20)Detroit (Dal): DT Ziggy Hood (Missouri)
21)New Orleans (Phi): LB Brian Cushing (USC)
22)Minnesota: C Alex MacK (California)
23)New England: DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati)
24)Cleveland (Atl): RB Chris Wells (Ohio St)
25)Miami: LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio St)
26)Baltimore: WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio St)
27)Indianapolis: DT Perry Jeria (Mississippi)
28)Buffalo (Car/Phi): OT Eben Britton (Arizona)
29)NY Giants: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland)
30)New England (Ten): RB Donald Brown (UConn)
31)Arizona: DE Everette Brown (Florida St)
32)Pittsburgh: OL Max Unger (Oregon)
Mock Draft - Rd 2
33)Detroit: TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma St)
34)Tennessee (NE): S Louis Delmas (W. Michigan)
35)St. Louis: LB Ray Maualaga (USC)
36)Atlanta (Cle): LB Clint Sintim (Virginia)
37)Seattle: OT William Beatty (UConn)
38)Cincinnati: WR Hakeem Nicks (No. Carolina)
39)Jacksonville: DE Jarron Gilbert (San Jose St)
40)Oakland: DE Larry English (No. Illinois)
41)Greeb Bay: DT Ron Brace (Boston College)
42)Buffalo: DB Sean Smith (Utah)
43)San Francisco: CB Vontae Davis (Illinois)
44)Miami (Was): CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)
45)Cleveland (NO/NYG): WR Mo Massaquoi (Georgia)
46)Houston: RB Andre Brown (No. Carolina St)
47)New England(SD): CB Darius Butler (UConn)
48)Denver: DE Paul Kruger (Utah)
49)Chicago: G Duke Robinson (Oklahoma)
50)NY Giants: TE Shawn Nelson (So. Mississippi)
51)Dallas: OL Jamon Meredith (So. Carolina)
52)Seattle(NYJ): C Eric Wood (Louisville)
53)New Orleans(Phi): LB Marcus Freeman (Ohio St)
54)Minnesota: OT Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma)
55)Atlanta: DB William Moore (Missouri)
56)Arizona(Mia): RB Shonn Greene (Iowa)
57)Baltimore: CB D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt)
58)New England: G Andy Levitre (Oregon St)
59)Carolina: OL Gerald Cadogan (Penn St)
60)NY Giants: G Herman Johnson (LSU)
61)Detroit(Ind): OL T.J. Lang (E. Michigan)
62)Tennessee: TE Chase Coffman (Missouri)
63)Arizona: WR Kenny Britt (Rutgers)
64)Pittsburgh: WR MIke Wallace (Mississippi)
Buffalo Bills Mock
1,11 - DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)
1,28 - OT Eben Britton (Arizona)
2,42 - DB Sean Smith (Utah)
3,75 - LB Jason Williams (W. Illinois)
4,110 - DT Corvey Irvin (Georgia)
4,121 - TE James Casey (Rice)
5,147 - OL Greg Isdaner (West Virginia)
6,183 - LB Nic Harris (Oklahoma)
7,220 - QB Mike Reilly (Cent. Washington)
Draft weekend has been a holiday for me and I haven't missed one since. I remember watching the 1986 draft and wondering why the Bills would pass over Will Wolford for Ronnie Harmon only to see them later trade up to get Wolford. I remember wanting Rod Woodson over Shane Conlan. Still remember a friend's response to the drafting the Thurman Thomas. I also remember predicting the selection of Erik Flowers but categorically state that he wasn't my desired choice, that was John Engelberger. At least Engelberger is still playing.
In years past, I could spout details on many individual players and it would amaze some. However, since my interests changed towards the salary cap, I've been more interested in the needs of the team and what information is ultimately used in the decision making process of the actual selecting a player.
There are many variables that go into which players are ultimately chosen. Some variables are more important than others and the strength each variable has in the draft equation is different with each team. They also change over time when teams have new owners or coaching staffs. Look at it as though it's a multivariate equation:
Dp (drafted player) = a1(needs) + a2(free agency) + a3(age) + a4(salary cap) + a5(owners desires) + a6(value) + a7(public relations/connections) + a8(draft day) + a9(player demands) + a10(coaching/schemes) + e
Basically, a1 thru a10 are called the "strength coefficients" and the sum is 1 (which in essence equals 100%). The last variable, e, is for "the unexpected" like a last minute injury or legal issue. If a5 = 1, all others are zero and basically means that the owner makes the decision on who is drafted. The closer the strength coefficient is to 1, the greater the impact of that variable is on drafting a player. Now it's apparent that some of these variables overlap. Needs result from free agency losses and gains and vice versa. Owner desires can include some review of team needs and salary cap situation. But by draft day, needs are post-free agency and free agency can be future free agency concerns. The "draft day" variable takes into account how the draft plays out and also what players a team has already drafted. However, I hope most of these variables are self explanatory. I could actually expand the variables to include "legal issues", "personal conduct", "instincts", and "affordability" (obviously in play for #1 overall). I'm sure others could be explored but I'm hoping those reading understand my point and that the art of drafting is a complex undertaking. Some of these variables are never taken into account when draftniks mull over various mock drafts whether they are reading and producing their own.
Without a doubt, the Bills needs in the draft have been reviewed ad nauseum. Thus, no great detail is necessary but I will just highlight what I perceive to be those needs and then follow up with my 2 round mock draft and final Bills 7 rd mock. Needs are as follows:
1) Pass Rush: I list it as pass rush because pass rush can come from positions other than DE. I honestly believe the Bills have some solid players on the DL but they lack the speed rusher in the mold of a Dwight Freeney and the ability to generate "up the middle" pressure. Helping the pass rush can come from drafting or trading for help on the defensive front 7. DE, DT, or LB. It can also come from better talent in the secondary, especially a big, physical CB that can match up against the bigger WR's in the league. I'm sick of seeing Terrence McGee lining up against a Braylon Edwards on 3rd down. With this all being said, age also plays a role here because Schobel, Denney, Kelsay, and Stroud are all over 30.
2) Offensive Line: Right now, I believe the Bills should keep the right side intact with Butler at RG and Walker at RT. Maintain as much continuity as possible. Hangartner was signed in free agency to take over at center and after Fowler and Preston, that's an upgrade IMHO. The left side is in flux and in need of an infusion of talent. We know the Bills are gonna say that they are happy with Chambers and D. Bell at LT or LG and confident in late free agent addition, McKinney, to provide depth inside. However, happy talk will not keep Trent off his backside. Bills must add talent to the OL. Especially at OT.
3) Linebacker: This is a greater need than DL IMO. Teams have been able to move the ball against our defense because they can attack a major weaknesses of the defense seemingly at will. Lack of speed at LB is a major reason. Neither Mitchell or Posluszny are speed demons. Ellison has better speed but is physically outmatched. Bills need an "all around-3 down" LB who can help on the pass rush, cover backs or TE's, and also hold up against the run.
4) Tight End: Bills have a real need for an all around TE. One that can be an effective blocker both in the running game and pass protection. This TE also needs to effective in the deep middle seams.
5) Secondary: Bills secondary consistently loses when matched up vs bigger WRs. Must get more physical at CB and need some depth inside at SS because of an apparent switch of Donte Whitner to FS. McGee is UFA, Youboty RFA, and Simpson is on the block
Trades:
1) Seattle sends #4 and 5th 2010 to NYJ for #17, #52, and 1st 2010
2) Oakland sends #7 and #216 to SF for #10, #74, and 4th 2010
3) New Orleans sends #14 to Phil for #21 and #53
4) Atlanta sends #24 to Cleveland for #36 and #104
5) Tennessee sends #30 and #130 to NE for #34 and #89
6) NY Giants sends #45, #238, and 2nd 2010 to Cleveland for #50 and WR Edwards
7) Miami sends #56 and cond 2010 to Arizona for WR Boldin
Mock Draft - 1st Round
1) Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford (Georgia)
2) St. Louis: OT Jason Smith (Baylor)
3) Kansas City: LB Aaron Curry (Wake Forest)
4) NY Jets (Seattle): QB Mark Sanchez (USC)
5) Cleveland: DT B. J. Raji (Boston College)
6) Cincinnati: OT Andre Smith (Alabama)
7) San Francisco (Oakland): DE Tyson Jackson (LSU)
8) Jacksonville: WR Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)
9) Green Bay: OT Eugene Monroe (Virginia)
10)Oakland (SF): WR Percy Harvin (Florida)
11)Buffalo: DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)
12)Denver: DE Robert Ayers (Tennessee)
13)Washington: OT Michael Oher (Mississippi)
14)Philadelphia (NO): RB Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
15)Houston: CB Malcolm Jenkins (Ohio St)
16)San Diego: DE Aaron Maybin (Penn St)
17)Seattle (NYJ): LB Clay Matthews (USC)
18)Denver (Chi): WR Jeremy Macklin (Missouri)
19)Tampa Bay: QB Josh Freeman (Kansas St)
20)Detroit (Dal): DT Ziggy Hood (Missouri)
21)New Orleans (Phi): LB Brian Cushing (USC)
22)Minnesota: C Alex MacK (California)
23)New England: DE Connor Barwin (Cincinnati)
24)Cleveland (Atl): RB Chris Wells (Ohio St)
25)Miami: LB James Laurinaitis (Ohio St)
26)Baltimore: WR Brian Robiskie (Ohio St)
27)Indianapolis: DT Perry Jeria (Mississippi)
28)Buffalo (Car/Phi): OT Eben Britton (Arizona)
29)NY Giants: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Maryland)
30)New England (Ten): RB Donald Brown (UConn)
31)Arizona: DE Everette Brown (Florida St)
32)Pittsburgh: OL Max Unger (Oregon)
Mock Draft - Rd 2
33)Detroit: TE Brandon Pettigrew (Oklahoma St)
34)Tennessee (NE): S Louis Delmas (W. Michigan)
35)St. Louis: LB Ray Maualaga (USC)
36)Atlanta (Cle): LB Clint Sintim (Virginia)
37)Seattle: OT William Beatty (UConn)
38)Cincinnati: WR Hakeem Nicks (No. Carolina)
39)Jacksonville: DE Jarron Gilbert (San Jose St)
40)Oakland: DE Larry English (No. Illinois)
41)Greeb Bay: DT Ron Brace (Boston College)
42)Buffalo: DB Sean Smith (Utah)
43)San Francisco: CB Vontae Davis (Illinois)
44)Miami (Was): CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest)
45)Cleveland (NO/NYG): WR Mo Massaquoi (Georgia)
46)Houston: RB Andre Brown (No. Carolina St)
47)New England(SD): CB Darius Butler (UConn)
48)Denver: DE Paul Kruger (Utah)
49)Chicago: G Duke Robinson (Oklahoma)
50)NY Giants: TE Shawn Nelson (So. Mississippi)
51)Dallas: OL Jamon Meredith (So. Carolina)
52)Seattle(NYJ): C Eric Wood (Louisville)
53)New Orleans(Phi): LB Marcus Freeman (Ohio St)
54)Minnesota: OT Phil Loadholt (Oklahoma)
55)Atlanta: DB William Moore (Missouri)
56)Arizona(Mia): RB Shonn Greene (Iowa)
57)Baltimore: CB D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt)
58)New England: G Andy Levitre (Oregon St)
59)Carolina: OL Gerald Cadogan (Penn St)
60)NY Giants: G Herman Johnson (LSU)
61)Detroit(Ind): OL T.J. Lang (E. Michigan)
62)Tennessee: TE Chase Coffman (Missouri)
63)Arizona: WR Kenny Britt (Rutgers)
64)Pittsburgh: WR MIke Wallace (Mississippi)
Buffalo Bills Mock
1,11 - DE Brian Orakpo (Texas)
1,28 - OT Eben Britton (Arizona)
2,42 - DB Sean Smith (Utah)
3,75 - LB Jason Williams (W. Illinois)
4,110 - DT Corvey Irvin (Georgia)
4,121 - TE James Casey (Rice)
5,147 - OL Greg Isdaner (West Virginia)
6,183 - LB Nic Harris (Oklahoma)
7,220 - QB Mike Reilly (Cent. Washington)
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