shelby
04-27-2009, 03:11 PM
Alex Soto breaks it down:
Every year, I like to do a little comparative analysis in an attempt to determine whether the Bills got good value in their chosen draft picks. Not knowing how successful any player brought in will be, I attempt to surmise this by analyzing the perceived average value of a player as compared to where we draft them. I then use the NFL trade value chart to ascertain the value of where each prospect was chosen. The NFL value chart can be found here:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
The following are the results alongside my opinion of the pick:
Analysis:
- First Round Pick: DE Aaron Maybin at #11.
For the last several years, the Bills' front defensive line has been lacking in performance. A Cover 2 defense employed by Dick Jauron, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills, requires all four defensive linemen to attack, penetrate the opponent’s offensive line, and essentially wreak havoc on the opposing quarterbacks and backfield. The defensive line has simply reeked.
A great move was made in the offseason last year by obtaining the big defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, but 1st round draft pick John McCargo has so far underperformed. Kyle Williams, the 5th round draft pick several years ago, has played adequately, and one might even say outplayed his pick level; but, adequate is not good enough on a line that a defense depends on to function.
The defensive ends have been even worse. Aaron Schobel was inconsistent last year, though it was revealed that he had an injury that later took him out for the season. Every single other defensive end provided very little performance on the field, with the exception of Ryan Denney, who at least contributed on special teams. Notwithstanding, you don’t keep a defensive end because of minor special team contributions. Chris Ellis was drafted as a hopeful project, but has not shown anything that may say he will elevate the team this year.
As such, they had no choice but to make Defensive End the top priority draft pick.
With a little luck, the Bills got a chance to essentially pick their top choice. The only defensive end gone at the time of their choice was Tyson Jackson, a rather large End who was more tailored for a 3-4 defense (1 nose tackle, 2 large defensive ends and 4 linebackers). With the Bills running a 4-3 defense (2 defensive tackles, 2 defensive ends, and 3 linebackers), he would not have been a good choice anyway. Much to my surprise, the Bills selected Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo, who many considered to be the top End and perfect for a 4-3. Maybin had been said to lack experience, not to mention being a possible one year wonder. He struggled against the run in college, and one has to wonder how he will fare against NFL running backs that are all fast, strong, and talented. Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Leon Washington…they may all give this guy fits.
That being said, Maybin does appear to have a decent knack for rushing the quarterback, so he may develop into the pick the Bills desperately need. But rest assured that in the next few years, I will be watching Orakpo in Washington, and constantly comparing these two careers. It is no secret that my view of the Bills Front Office has diminished significantly in the last few years. If Orakpo goes on to have a stellar career, while Maybin and the Bills remain average, it will just be further proof that the Bills will never achieve anything until Ralph stops firing coaches and instead fires the scouts and Tom Modrak, who drafts mediocre players consistently.
Pick # 11 is worth 1250 points (Note: Please see the link above for obtaining the point values).
A composition of many websites' mock drafts yielded an average pick for Maybin at #16, which equates to 1000 points.
Net loss: 1000 – 1250 = -250 points
For comparison-sake, Orakpo was on many mocks going at #5 and no later than 12, yielding an average pick of 6. His pick would have been a net gain of: 1600-1250 = +350.
more... (http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/2009/04/25/the_2009_calculus_of_the_draft_for_the_buffalo_bills_and_analysis.php)
Every year, I like to do a little comparative analysis in an attempt to determine whether the Bills got good value in their chosen draft picks. Not knowing how successful any player brought in will be, I attempt to surmise this by analyzing the perceived average value of a player as compared to where we draft them. I then use the NFL trade value chart to ascertain the value of where each prospect was chosen. The NFL value chart can be found here:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php
The following are the results alongside my opinion of the pick:
Analysis:
- First Round Pick: DE Aaron Maybin at #11.
For the last several years, the Bills' front defensive line has been lacking in performance. A Cover 2 defense employed by Dick Jauron, Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills, requires all four defensive linemen to attack, penetrate the opponent’s offensive line, and essentially wreak havoc on the opposing quarterbacks and backfield. The defensive line has simply reeked.
A great move was made in the offseason last year by obtaining the big defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, but 1st round draft pick John McCargo has so far underperformed. Kyle Williams, the 5th round draft pick several years ago, has played adequately, and one might even say outplayed his pick level; but, adequate is not good enough on a line that a defense depends on to function.
The defensive ends have been even worse. Aaron Schobel was inconsistent last year, though it was revealed that he had an injury that later took him out for the season. Every single other defensive end provided very little performance on the field, with the exception of Ryan Denney, who at least contributed on special teams. Notwithstanding, you don’t keep a defensive end because of minor special team contributions. Chris Ellis was drafted as a hopeful project, but has not shown anything that may say he will elevate the team this year.
As such, they had no choice but to make Defensive End the top priority draft pick.
With a little luck, the Bills got a chance to essentially pick their top choice. The only defensive end gone at the time of their choice was Tyson Jackson, a rather large End who was more tailored for a 3-4 defense (1 nose tackle, 2 large defensive ends and 4 linebackers). With the Bills running a 4-3 defense (2 defensive tackles, 2 defensive ends, and 3 linebackers), he would not have been a good choice anyway. Much to my surprise, the Bills selected Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo, who many considered to be the top End and perfect for a 4-3. Maybin had been said to lack experience, not to mention being a possible one year wonder. He struggled against the run in college, and one has to wonder how he will fare against NFL running backs that are all fast, strong, and talented. Laurence Maroney, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Leon Washington…they may all give this guy fits.
That being said, Maybin does appear to have a decent knack for rushing the quarterback, so he may develop into the pick the Bills desperately need. But rest assured that in the next few years, I will be watching Orakpo in Washington, and constantly comparing these two careers. It is no secret that my view of the Bills Front Office has diminished significantly in the last few years. If Orakpo goes on to have a stellar career, while Maybin and the Bills remain average, it will just be further proof that the Bills will never achieve anything until Ralph stops firing coaches and instead fires the scouts and Tom Modrak, who drafts mediocre players consistently.
Pick # 11 is worth 1250 points (Note: Please see the link above for obtaining the point values).
A composition of many websites' mock drafts yielded an average pick for Maybin at #16, which equates to 1000 points.
Net loss: 1000 – 1250 = -250 points
For comparison-sake, Orakpo was on many mocks going at #5 and no later than 12, yielding an average pick of 6. His pick would have been a net gain of: 1600-1250 = +350.
more... (http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/2009/04/25/the_2009_calculus_of_the_draft_for_the_buffalo_bills_and_analysis.php)