Run defense, statistically

[psubills62]

I was thinking today about our run defense. It seemed to improve this year, and we ranked a good deal higher in the NFL in run defense than we did last year. But as the stats say, our opponents rushed for 4.3 yards per carry against us in 2008, versus 4.4 in 2007.

Obviously that doesn't seem significantly better. However, I think many people ignored something very important when discussing this statistic previously.

After some calculations, here's the yards per carry average for the entire league:

2007: 4.06
2008: 4.21

That's a 0.15 yard per carry difference. Doesn't seem big, but it's fairly significant, especially since the entire league is getting better at running the ball, while we got slightly better at stopping it.

THAT is the reason we're ranked so much higher, yet only got better by 0.1 YPC.

Obviously, deeper analysis needs to be undertaken, because we didn't play everyone in the league, so there might be teams weighting those averages that we didn't play.

But overall, it appears that our seemingly 0.1 YPC improvement is actually more like a net 0.2-0.25 YPC improvement, which is fairly significant.

Any thoughts? I might try the in-depth analysis tonight, but I am wondering if people think this is at all significant.

[OpIv37]

just one: take a look at TOP and long drives. Any analysis of the run D has to take that into account.

[psubills62]

just one: take a look at TOP and long drives. Any analysis of the run D has to take that into account.

I think I could do TOP, though I was hoping to not do a game-by-game analysis. Definitely don't have the time to do a drive-by-drive analysis, but if someone else wants to, that's fine. Finals week is next week, and I've got a take-home final I want to finish by the end of the week.

So what do you think, Op? Does that make our run defense from 2008 look a little better, considering the entire league improved its run game?

[ChristopherWalken]

Although interesting, I don't know if I'm totally sold on those figuers. I mean we didn't play the entire league so the league YPC average contains too many factors that cannot be tied to this team.

I think it's more important to concern ourselves on how well the D responded to the teams we did play. Especially since at least 6 of the games were against the same opponent in each season.

Unfortunately, you would have to do a game-by-gmae analysis for the last two years to defend it.

Also, morbid curiosity has me wondering what the league defending YPC average is as well.

[The Juice Is Loose]

Dude we had tons of 3 and outs. That, in my opinion, was what killed us.

If we could sustain more drives. Not necessarily even score every time, just hold the ball for 3 minutes vs. a minute and a half, that would make such a big difference.

Countless times our defense would come through and hold a team to a punt or a field goal. Tons of times. Then our special teams would get the ball to mid field, and we'd go 3 and out.

3 and outs killed us. I think moving the chains is what can help our defense the most.

That said, anybody who doesn't think our defense was better in 08 than 07 is a dunce. Mitchell, Poz, Stroud. The defense was way better in 08.

With Schobel back, Maybin hopefully can be a good 3rd and long pass rush, Stroud and (please jesus) I'm hoping to see some stuff out of McCargo this year. He's got a new coach, and he's on his last leg to keep his roster spot. Maybe he gets fired up now.

I know, I know. Nothing is for certain, lots of maybe's. But none of what I expect is that far fetched, and I think this team can go 10-6.

[OpIv37]

I think I could do TOP, though I was hoping to not do a game-by-game analysis. Definitely don't have the time to do a drive-by-drive analysis, but if someone else wants to, that's fine. Finals week is next week, and I've got a take-home final I want to finish by the end of the week.

So what do you think, Op? Does that make our run defense from 2008 look a little better, considering the entire league improved its run game?
That's why I wanted to make the TOP comparison. We didn't play every team in the league every year, and with only 16 games a season one or two really good or really bad games can skew the average.

If we look at TOP and long drives, then it's easier to see if our run D improved or not. Granted, you'd have to look at every game over the last two years and that takes time, so I don't blame you if you can't do it. I'm just saying it's another factor to consider that will help make sense of the numbers you posted.

[kid mickey]

The run D should only get better. Another year under every players belt. You got to remember that this is a pretty young team.

[psubills62]

Well, I did the analysis, but I ended up doing it wrong. I'll have to work on it more tomorrow, unfortunately. This thread will probably die, but once I finish it, I'll open it back up eventually.

[kid mickey]

We will keep it alive. Just post something about run d in here until you got the numbers.

[Mad Bomber]

Our D didn't kill us last year as much as our O did.

We were 14th in total D, and 25th in O. Our offense could not keep our defense off the field. Our D gave up very few points in several games down the stretch, while our O put up 0 to 3 points...

That's one reason I cringe when people obsess about a "lack of pass rush" as being the reason for a third straight 7-9 season. The problem was the OFFENSE, not the defense. Our offense was truly OFFENSIVE in the second half of last year. It could not get out of its own way. The run blocking SUCKED...how many times could we not pick up ONE yard on the ground when we needed it?

Hopefully, the total revamp of our O-line will remedy this.

[kid mickey]

Our D didn't kill us last year as much as our O did.

We were 14th in total D, and 25th in O. Our offense could not keep our defense off the field. Our D gave up very few points in several games down the stretch, while our O put up 0 to 3 points...

That's one reason I cringe when people obsess about a "lack of pass rush" as being the reason for a third straight 7-9 season. The problem was the OFFENSE, not the defense. Our offense was truly OFFENSIVE in the second half of last year. It could not get out of its own way. The run blocking SUCKED...how many times could we not pick up ONE yard on the ground when we needed it?

Hopefully, the total revamp of our O-line will remedy this.

I agree.

[Syderick]

The run defence did improve a bit from 2007 to 2008. It was the offence that was having trouble.

[mchurchfie]

The defense is still prone to giving up that obligatory long run every game which is rather disturbing. Plus they went from being one of the best 3rd down defenses to backsliding pretty bad in the second half of the season.