psubills62
05-07-2009, 08:16 AM
KC Joyner's stuff is pretty good, though sometimes he seems to rely too much on the stats of the game. Then again, that is his forte, so it's to be expected. I thought this was a good article, and I'm wondering if anyone knows where POA stats can be found online? I'd like to know exactly what the POA stats were for each lineman last year.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/bills-prove-rule-its-the-blocking-not-the-back/
"
Bills Prove Rule: It’s the Blocking, Not the Back
<!-- By line --><ADDRESS class="byline author vcard">By KC Joyner (http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/author/kc-joyner/)</ADDRESS><!-- Summary --><!-- The Content -->http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs_v3/fifthdown/teams/bills75.jpg (http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/bills/)
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/03/18/sports/18fifthdown.190.jpg
The Football Scientist, KC Joyner (http://www.thefootballscientist.com/), is a Fifth Down contributor. His latest book, Scientific Football 2009, is available for pre-order. (http://www.thefootballscientist.com/order.htm)
It has often been said of Walter Payton that one of the most impressive parts of his Herculean rushing totals is that he achieved them behind an offensive line that wasn’t very good. The implication is that the best running backs are able to gain yardage even when they have a breakdown in blocking.
Being the loyal Bill James-disciple that I am, I couldn’t take this type of conventional wisdom on its face and instead had to see if it was true. Can running backs make up for a lack of blocking with their individual efforts? If so, to what extent can they offset subpar help from their teammates?
I am still in the midst of doing the research on this for Scientific Football 2009, but based on what I have seen so far, the answer to the first question is a fairly resounding no. Let me illustrate some of the evidence with the Buffalo Bills’ run blocking metrics from last season. The Bills are a really good study for this experiment for two reasons.
First, their overall offensive line run blocking totals were abysmal. Three of the Bills’ regular starters had a Point of Attack (POA) run block win percentage of under 80%. As I’ve detailed in previous posts, the 80% mark is the low-end acceptable total in this area, and Buffalo had only two linemen who were able to vault this bar. If that wasn’t enough, one of those linemen (Derrick Dockery) barely topped that total with an 81.4% POA win showing.
The other reason Buffalo is a good fit for this study is that they have not one but two superb running backs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. One would expect that this pair could gain yards on runs where none of their blockers were beaten at the POA, and the numbers bear this out:
Runs without a POA run block loss
Jackson – 81 attempts, 489 yards, 6.0 YPA
Lynch – 166 attempts, 858 yards, 5.2 YPA
Now let’s take a look at how they fared when at least one blocker was beaten at the POA.
Runs with at least one POA run block loss
Jackson – 49 attempts, 82 yards, 1.7 YPA
Lynch – 84 attempts, 178 yards, 2.1 YPA
This is only a preliminary finding based on one team, but the rest of the evidence I’ve gathered also points to the same conclusion, namely that any running back is going to be hard pressed to gain consistent yards on plays with failed blocking.
I also have some news on the Dr. Z/Nothing Is Impossible Foundation charity function May 18 in West Orange, N.J. I have confirmed that I will be speaking on the second panel that evening with a group that will include NFL Network’s Adam Schefter, ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz. The first panel consists of Peter King (who will also be hosting the second panel), Giants Coach Tom Coughlin and Jets Coach Rex Ryan. All in all, it should be a terrific evening loaded with tons of interesting football talk. If you are interested in purchasing tickets (or in making a donation to help Dr. Z), just go to the Dr. Z/Nothing Is Impossible Foundation Web site. (http://www.cmarket.com/auction/AuctionHome.action?vhost=drz)"
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/07/bills-prove-rule-its-the-blocking-not-the-back/
"
Bills Prove Rule: It’s the Blocking, Not the Back
<!-- By line --><ADDRESS class="byline author vcard">By KC Joyner (http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/author/kc-joyner/)</ADDRESS><!-- Summary --><!-- The Content -->http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs_v3/fifthdown/teams/bills75.jpg (http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/bills/)
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/03/18/sports/18fifthdown.190.jpg
The Football Scientist, KC Joyner (http://www.thefootballscientist.com/), is a Fifth Down contributor. His latest book, Scientific Football 2009, is available for pre-order. (http://www.thefootballscientist.com/order.htm)
It has often been said of Walter Payton that one of the most impressive parts of his Herculean rushing totals is that he achieved them behind an offensive line that wasn’t very good. The implication is that the best running backs are able to gain yardage even when they have a breakdown in blocking.
Being the loyal Bill James-disciple that I am, I couldn’t take this type of conventional wisdom on its face and instead had to see if it was true. Can running backs make up for a lack of blocking with their individual efforts? If so, to what extent can they offset subpar help from their teammates?
I am still in the midst of doing the research on this for Scientific Football 2009, but based on what I have seen so far, the answer to the first question is a fairly resounding no. Let me illustrate some of the evidence with the Buffalo Bills’ run blocking metrics from last season. The Bills are a really good study for this experiment for two reasons.
First, their overall offensive line run blocking totals were abysmal. Three of the Bills’ regular starters had a Point of Attack (POA) run block win percentage of under 80%. As I’ve detailed in previous posts, the 80% mark is the low-end acceptable total in this area, and Buffalo had only two linemen who were able to vault this bar. If that wasn’t enough, one of those linemen (Derrick Dockery) barely topped that total with an 81.4% POA win showing.
The other reason Buffalo is a good fit for this study is that they have not one but two superb running backs in Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. One would expect that this pair could gain yards on runs where none of their blockers were beaten at the POA, and the numbers bear this out:
Runs without a POA run block loss
Jackson – 81 attempts, 489 yards, 6.0 YPA
Lynch – 166 attempts, 858 yards, 5.2 YPA
Now let’s take a look at how they fared when at least one blocker was beaten at the POA.
Runs with at least one POA run block loss
Jackson – 49 attempts, 82 yards, 1.7 YPA
Lynch – 84 attempts, 178 yards, 2.1 YPA
This is only a preliminary finding based on one team, but the rest of the evidence I’ve gathered also points to the same conclusion, namely that any running back is going to be hard pressed to gain consistent yards on plays with failed blocking.
I also have some news on the Dr. Z/Nothing Is Impossible Foundation charity function May 18 in West Orange, N.J. I have confirmed that I will be speaking on the second panel that evening with a group that will include NFL Network’s Adam Schefter, ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz. The first panel consists of Peter King (who will also be hosting the second panel), Giants Coach Tom Coughlin and Jets Coach Rex Ryan. All in all, it should be a terrific evening loaded with tons of interesting football talk. If you are interested in purchasing tickets (or in making a donation to help Dr. Z), just go to the Dr. Z/Nothing Is Impossible Foundation Web site. (http://www.cmarket.com/auction/AuctionHome.action?vhost=drz)"