What kind of impact will Nelson have as a rookie?

[BillsWin]

I'm curious as to what you think Nelson's stats will be come the end of the regular season. So I've got five choices based on last season's TE statistics. The 5 Choices are just round estimates of certain types of production. Chose based on the descriptions below...

1. Tony Gonzalez Type Production: Almost 100 receptions, over 1,000 yards and roughly 10 touch downs.

2. Antonio Gates Type Production: About 60+ receptions, Around 700-900 yards, 6+ Touchdowns.

3. John Carlson Type Production: Around 50 something receptions, Roughly 500-700 yards, 5 TDs

4. Desmond Clark Type Production: Around 35-40 receptions, 400 yards, 1-3 TDs.

5. Derek Shouman Type Production: 15-20 receptions, Around 200 yards and 0-1 TDs.


I'm curious to what you guys think Nelson will contribute to this team as a rookie. Here is a link to the TE stats from last season. Please choose one of the five types I have given, but don't be afraid to pick another TE's stats you think compare to what you predict Nelson will do this season. http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&statisticPositionCategory=TIGHT_END&season=2008&seasonType=REG&experience=null&tabSeq=1&qualified=true&Submit=Go

This should be fun!!! :limpclap:

btw, I tried to make a poll, it didnt seem to want to work...

[Pinkerton Security]

I'd say 20-30 catches, 2 td's.

[BillsWin]

I would like to see some Carlson type production. I think Nelson has that type of skill set, and the no-huddle, 3 wide, 1 TE set where Nelson will spread out to be the 4th WR system may play towards his sure hands and athleticism.

[Lexwhat]

...

ROOKIES:
Jason Witten had 35 catches and 1 TD his rookie year.
Antonio Gates had 24 catches and 2 TDs.
Tony Gonzalez had 33 catches and 2 TDs.
Tony Scheffler had 18 catches and 4 TDs.
Alge Crumpler had 25 catches for 3 TDs.
Vernon Davis had 20 catches for 3 TDs.
Todd Heap had 16 catches and 1 TD.
Jeremy Shockey had 74 catches and 2 TDs (lone exception).
Kellen Winslow was a moron.

...If those stats don't put things into perspective, I don't know what will. Nelson was a 4th round pick, and the 6th Tight End drafted this year.

No one should expect him to have more than 30 catches this year... IMO, Nelson is at least 2 years away from making even a sizable impact.

[Mitchell55]

28 catches, 2 TDs, 230 yds.

[Captain gameboy]

Tough to tell until he masters the Bills famous tight end "catch and fall" routine.

I just watched the Bills Jets on NFL replay and I swear to be a Bills tight end you must fall within 1/2 second after any reception.

[Mitchell55]

Nelson was the 3rd TE taken, I think? Where was Cook taken?

[yordad]

We have a "young" QB. He likes to dump it off short. He is conservative. The coaches are conservative. The game planning and play calling is conservative. He was drafting for his receiving skills. He has no real competition. He is the most athletic TE the Bills have ever had.

I think he has alot going in his favor. The only thing that isn't is the coaches may be to conservative. They may feel Nelson's blocking isn't good enough to make him a starter. I think other wise. Again, look at his competition. Fine isn't near the blocker some fans talk like he is.

Anyways, I'm going with 38 catches, 2 tds.

[TigerJ]

A lot will depend on how much he picks up in training camp. While he's a natural athlete, with great hands and speed to stretch the seam, we also heard hints during the rookie mini-camp that he's still pretty raw in some aspects of the game. While I'm excited that he's a Bill, I think the Bills may have to bring him along a little more slowly than we'd all like. I think in the end, the Desmond Clark comparison might be a fair one to make because I think he'll be splitting time with Fine and Schouman at the start of the season. He's a player I would expect to really blossom in his second season.

[The Spaz]

Bigger impact than Royal...lol

[Lexwhat]

We have a "young" QB. He likes to dump it off short. He is conservative. The coaches are conservative. The game planning and play calling is conservative.

I will have to disagree with you.

There is no reason to be conservative when you have Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. If the Bills want to do dump passes, they have Josh Reed and Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch.

Considering that we'll likely have Owens for only 1 year (meaning we don't extend him), the Bills would be foolish not to take advantage of their weapons.

If the Bills do play conservatively, they don't have a top-5 type of defense that will allow them to beat elite teams. We need to take advantage of our offensive weapons.

[Lexwhat]

Nelson was the 3rd TE taken, I think? Where was Cook taken?

<table id="players-grid-table-by-position-drafted" class="players-grid-table" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr id="players-grid-table-by-position-drafted-71431" class="even"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>1. Round 1: Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
2. Round 2: Richard Quinn, Broncos
3. Round 3: Jared Cook, Titans
4. Round 3: Chase Coffman, Bengals
5. Round 3: Travis Beckum, Giants
6. Round 4: Nelson, Bills.

[yordad]

I will have to disagree with you.

There is no reason to be conservative when you have Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. If the Bills want to do dump passes, they have Josh Reed and Fred Jackson/Marshawn Lynch.

Considering that we'll likely have Owens for only 1 year (meaning we don't extend him), the Bills would be foolish not to take advantage of their weapons.

If the Bills do play conservatively, they don't have a top-5 type of defense that will allow them to beat elite teams. We need to take advantage of our offensive weapons.Hey, what we think they should do, and what I think they will do are two different things. I completely agree they should open it up, and go full throttle, so you are actually not disagreeing with me.

The question is, do you think they will do what you think they should do?

[mikemac2001]

All he has to do is make plays when the ball is thrown to him and when he is on the field

I honestly dont care what his stats say because who knows how many plays there gonna use him

[Mahdi]

If he is the starting TE day one I would say, based on how often Trent likes to throw short and Nelson's size....


45 rec, 450 yds, 5 TDs

[elltrain22]

I think anywhere from 35-40 catches w/ 350-450 rec yds, and 3-4 tds is pretty realistic. I would say he's probably @ Anthony Fasano's stat tier.

[Mahdi]

I think anywhere from 35-40 catches w/ 350-450 rec yds, and 3-4 tds is pretty realistic. I would say he's probably @ Anthony Fasano's stat tier.
Nelson is a completely different player than Fasano. Fasano is a blocker with average receiving skills.

I would say Nelson is more along the lines of Dustin Keller production.

[casdhf]

I don't think he'll do much until next season. I bet Fine leads the TEs in all categories.

[justasportsfan]

With Evans, TO and Reed and our catching rb's . I say 15-20 receptions.

[trapezeus]

with this coaching staff and their inability to put the best players on the field and/or call the right plays at the right time, i suspect a raw TE will be a total liability in blocking situations, and completely covered on passing routes.

I suspect Nelson will be yet another miss in a long line of non-superstar talents that the bills fo would rather have you think has that star quality.

Think a bout the number of jersey's the bills have had you buy over the last 10 years where the players are either not servicable or not with us anymore.

[justasportsfan]

with this coaching staff and their inability to put the best players on the field and/or call the right plays at the right time, i suspect a raw TE will be a total liability in blocking situations, and completely covered on passing routes.

I suspect Nelson will be yet another miss in a long line of non-superstar talents that the bills fo would rather have you think has that star quality.

Think a bout the number of jersey's the bills have had you buy over the last 10 years where the players are either not servicable or not with us anymore.

I think the better blocker at TE will get more time this year. Trent has so many players to throw to especially with Rhodes coming in who's another catching receiver. Wait til' Hardy comes back and he'll need some playing time as well not to mention the strong performance by Steve Johnson towards the end of last year. It's not a bad thing though as long as the OL holds up.

I'm excited about our passing weapons and the copetition at camp. I'm sure Josh Reed knows he's gonna have to up his game vs. the young players.

[elltrain22]

Nelson is a completely different player than Fasano. Fasano is a blocker with average receiving skills.

I would say Nelson is more along the lines of Dustin Keller production.

I'm saying the numbers are similar, not his style of play.

:fishy:

[Mahdi]

I'm saying the numbers are similar, not his style of play.

:fishy:
Right. But Anthony Fasano is primarily a blocking TE, not fast, not athletic, not a great route runner. He had 14 receptions as a rookie.

When you compare Nelson to a current NFL player compare him to rookie TEs with the same or similar skill sets.

Like, Keller, Olsen, Heath Miller, Zach Miller, Carlson, Cooley, Shockey, Winslow etc.

[trapezeus]

I think the better blocker at TE will get more time this year. Trent has so many players to throw to especially with Rhodes coming in who's another catching receiver. Wait til' Hardy comes back and he'll need some playing time as well not to mention the strong performance by Steve Johnson towards the end of last year. It's not a bad thing though as long as the OL holds up.

I'm excited about our passing weapons and the copetition at camp. I'm sure Josh Reed knows he's gonna have to up his game vs. the young players.

You are right, there are a lot of weapons...it really comes down to this new line. And i think you and i are both in the "disallusioned with the coaches" boat. He couldn't get 3rd and 1 with the largest line in the game last year. Now they are taking a different breed of Linemen and trying again essentially with the same coaching staff. Why is this going to be any different?

I'm rooting for all of this to work. But i do worry even if the bills offense is finally solved and they can put up points, i don't see schoebel being effective post injury and maybin might be too small with his quick step to make the difference. Our LB's are still the same and our Secondary seems to get weaker. So we'll see what happens. i hope for good things, but i am thoroughly prepared for the worst this year.

[Mr. Pink]

I don't think he'll do much until next season. I bet Fine leads the TEs in all categories.


I agree with this.

I don't think Nelson will have much, if any, impact this season while he sits, learns and acclimates to our offensive philosophy.

There's a reason he was the 6th TE taken and not til round 4.

Try and keep some perspective, people.

[justasportsfan]

You are right, there are a lot of weapons...it really comes down to this new line. And i think you and i are both in the "disallusioned with the coaches" boat. He couldn't get 3rd and 1 with the largest line in the game last year. Now they are taking a different breed of Linemen and trying again essentially with the same coaching staff. Why is this going to be any different?


I can only hope that Trent knows what works better this time around and I hope Turk just lets him play instead of trying to be conservative with Trent.

[OpIv37]

I agree with this.

I don't think Nelson will have much, if any, impact this season while he sits, learns and acclimates to our offensive philosophy.

There's a reason he was the 6th TE taken and not til round 4.

Try and keep some perspective, people.

:no:

We got the equivalent of Brandon Pettigrew in the 4th round. Anyone who says anything different is a hater and isn't a real fan anyway.

[Mr. Pink]

:no:

We got the equivalent of Brandon Pettigrew in the 4th round. Anyone who says anything different is a hater and isn't a real fan anyway.



My apologies.

60 catches 800 yards 5 TDs it is, then!

[Mahdi]

:no:

We got the equivalent of Brandon Pettigrew in the 4th round. Anyone who says anything different is a hater and isn't a real fan anyway.
If Nelson wins the starting job there's no reason why he can't grab 30-45 passes and a few TDs.

Historically, receiving TEs with his skill set have succeeded in their first season.

[OpIv37]

If Nelson wins the starting job there's no reason why he can't grab 30-45 passes and a few TDs.

Historically, receiving TEs with his skill set have succeeded in their first season.

on teams with two rookie offensive linemen blocking for an inexperienced QB?

I think this FO and this board are expecting far too much from rookies this season. IMO this draft has a good deal of potential, but none of these guys are going to reach their potential by week 1 of 2009.

[Mr. Pink]

If Nelson wins the starting job there's no reason why he can't grab 30-45 passes and a few TDs.

Historically, receiving TEs with his skill set have succeeded in their first season.


Historically, the receiving TEs I've seen named and thrown about in this thread, were high round draft picks...on day 1.

If Nelson was on that level coming out of college as the aforementioned people in this thread, he would have been drafted sooner.

Yes, there are exceptions, but you can't use an exception to prove a rule.

To expect, 30-45 receptions, IMO, is not placing reasonable expectations out of a guy who obviously wasn't highly touted in the draft.

That combined with the fact the organization likes Fine, Schouman I wouldn't expect more than 15-20 catches, 200ish yards and a TD or 2. Not to mention the WRs we have and the fact our QB loves to dump the ball off to the RB as well. There's only so many catches to go around.

Hopefully he is one of those diamonds in the rough, but I wouldn't expect it...and if he does put up the production I'm realistically anticipating, hopefully in the future seasons he can grow as a player.

[HHURRICANE]

on teams with two rookie offensive linemen blocking for an inexperienced QB?

I think this FO and this board are expecting far too much from rookies this season. IMO this draft has a good deal of potential, but none of these guys are going to reach their potential by week 1 of 2009.

Exactly.

I can't believe how much discounting goes on around here. Everyone is back to being excited with our offense when our o-line looks pretty troublesome at this point.

I guess people forgot the Pittsburgh game at home when our first string o-line got dominated by their second string d-line.

Win amd we are in the playoffs but our o-line couldn't do it.

Now we are back to "LT isn't that important" posts.

[Mahdi]

on teams with two rookie offensive linemen blocking for an inexperienced QB?

I think this FO and this board are expecting far too much from rookies this season. IMO this draft has a good deal of potential, but none of these guys are going to reach their potential by week 1 of 2009.
I think you make too much of the rookie Guards situation. Like 6 or 7 rookie OTs started week 1 last year and did a great job. And theoretically, coming in as a rookie LT or RT is much tougher than coming in at Guard.

[Lexwhat]

Hey, what we think they should do, and what I think they will do are two different things. I completely agree they should open it up, and go full throttle, so you are actually not disagreeing with me.

The question is, do you think they will do what you think they should do?

Like previous years, the Bills may just outsmart themselves again.

:ill:

[OpIv37]

I think you make too much of the rookie Guards situation. Like 6 or 7 rookie OTs started week 1 last year and did a great job. And theoretically, coming in as a rookie LT or RT is much tougher than coming in at Guard.

Were those rookies playing on an entirely reshuffled line that included other rookies? Were those rookies protecting a QB as inexperienced as Edwards? There are other variables at place as well.

[User Manuel]

I'm curious as to what you think Nelson's stats will be come the end of the regular season. So I've got five choices based on last season's TE statistics. The 5 Choices are just round estimates of certain types of production. Chose based on the descriptions below...

1. Tony Gonzalez Type Production: Almost 100 receptions, over 1,000 yards and roughly 10 touch downs.

2. Antonio Gates Type Production: About 60+ receptions, Around 700-900 yards, 6+ Touchdowns.

3. John Carlson Type Production: Around 50 something receptions, Roughly 500-700 yards, 5 TDs

4. Desmond Clark Type Production: Around 35-40 receptions, 400 yards, 1-3 TDs.

5. Derek Shouman Type Production: 15-20 receptions, Around 200 yards and 0-1 TDs.


I'm curious to what you guys think Nelson will contribute to this team as a rookie. Here is a link to the TE stats from last season. Please choose one of the five types I have given, but don't be afraid to pick another TE's stats you think compare to what you predict Nelson will do this season. http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&statisticPositionCategory=TIGHT_END&season=2008&seasonType=REG&experience=null&tabSeq=1&qualified=true&Submit=Go

This should be fun!!! :limpclap:

btw, I tried to make a poll, it didnt seem to want to work...

I would expect, at best Carlson production. I am hoping the Bills Offensive minds can use Nelson to exploit matchups that work in our favor with Nelson, especially when singled against teams OLBs.

[Mahdi]

Were those rookies playing on an entirely reshuffled line that included other rookies? Were those rookies protecting a QB as inexperienced as Edwards? There are other variables at place as well.
What does it make a difference who he is playing next to. Everyone is new to a rookie anyways.

Brandon Albert, Brown, Long, Baker, Clady all had to adapt to new schemes teammates and build some chemistry.

Levitre will be playing between 2 veterans as will Wood.

[Lexwhat]

I think you make too much of the rookie Guards situation. Like 6 or 7 rookie OTs started week 1 last year and did a great job. And theoretically, coming in as a rookie LT or RT is much tougher than coming in at Guard.

I agree with you about the Guards, but disagree about Nelson possibly having 30 to 40+ catches this year.

Eric Wood and Andy Levitre are great prospects, and I envision that they will hit the ground running. If rookie RTs/LTs can step in on Day 1, I think Wood and Levtire will have no problem at their respective positions. What I am scared about is Walker at LT for a whole season. I also don't think Butler is all that good, which is why I hope we sign Levi Jones (assuming he's healthy) and move Walker back to RT.

O-Line cohesion is definitely an issue on Day 1, but IMO, this O-line won't play any worse than they did last year.

-----

Secondly, FunTimesYay pretty much summed up my whole point that Rookie Tight Ends don't do much in this league. I provided a list of mostly highly-touted prospects, and all but 1 had average rookie seasons.

Meanwhile, Nelson has all the physical tools, but he has lots of work to do with route running and blocking. That almost guarantees a steep learning curve that will likely be overcome in Year 3.

[Lexwhat]

Were those rookies playing on an entirely reshuffled line that included other rookies? Were those rookies protecting a QB as inexperienced as Edwards? There are other variables at place as well.

In my above post, I did touch upon the issue of cohesion, but interior O-Lineman can easily step in as rookies and perform admirably. It is extremely common in all different situations.

I think the biggest issue I have with the O-Line is Walker at LT. I don't think he's a good fit for the position, and this will end up hurting our offense. But like I also said, overall, this O-Line won't be any worse than last year's. IMO, we will improve in run blocking and regress in pass blocking.

Anyways, I'm most concerned about our Defense. Poz needs to improve, and I will be sick if Ellison is the starting LB again. You already know how I feel about Whitner. Kelsey is overpaid and doesn't produce. The only position I feel good about is CB, WLB, and maybe DT.

[OpIv37]

What does it make a difference who he is playing next to. Everyone is new to a rookie anyways.

Brandon Albert, Brown, Long, Baker, Clady all had to adapt to new schemes teammates and build some chemistry.

Levitre will be playing between 2 veterans as will Wood.

What difference does it make? EVERY player on the line will be adjusting to new positions/blocking assignments and two will be adjusting to the NFL simultaneously. That's much more difficult than a rookie coming in and playing with 4 guys in the same slots who know their roles.

[Mahdi]

I agree with you about the Guards, but disagree about Nelson possibly having 30 to 40+ catches this year.

Eric Wood and Andy Levitre are great prospects, and I envision that they will hit the ground running. If rookie RTs/LTs can step in on Day 1, I think Wood and Levtire will have no problem at their respective positions. What I am scared about is Walker at LT for a whole season. I also don't think Butler is all that good, which is why I hope we sign Levi Jones (assuming he's healthy) and move Walker back to RT.

O-Line cohesion is definitely an issue on Day 1, but IMO, this O-line won't play any worse than they did last year.

-----

Secondly, FunTimesYay pretty much summed up my whole point that Rookie Tight Ends don't do much in this league. I provided a list of mostly highly-touted prospects, and all but 1 had average rookie seasons.

Meanwhile, Nelson has all the physical tools, but he has lots of work to do with route running and blocking. That almost guarantees a steep learning curve that will likely be overcome in Year 3.
I made a list last week of recent rookie TE production (not all TEs, just ones with similar skill set to Nelson) and 35 receptions was the average.... who were you looking at?

[Lexwhat]

I think anywhere from 35-40 catches w/ 350-450 rec yds, and 3-4 tds is pretty realistic. I would say he's probably @ Anthony Fasano's stat tier.

9 Receptions, 87 Yards, 2 TDs (in 14 games).

Whose stats are those?

James Hardy last year. And Hardy barely had any competition.

[Lexwhat]

I made a list last week of recent rookie TE production (not all TEs, just ones with similar skill set to Nelson) and 35 receptions was the average.... who were you looking at?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lexwhat

...

ROOKIES:
Jason Witten had 35 catches and 1 TD his rookie year.
Antonio Gates had 24 catches and 2 TDs.
Tony Gonzalez had 33 catches and 2 TDs.
Tony Scheffler had 18 catches and 4 TDs.
Alge Crumpler had 25 catches for 3 TDs.
Vernon Davis had 20 catches for 3 TDs.
Todd Heap had 16 catches and 1 TD.
Jeremy Shockey had 74 catches and 2 TDs (lone exception).
Kellen Winslow was a moron.

...If those stats don't put things into perspective, I don't know what will. Nelson was a 4th round pick, and the 6th Tight End drafted this year.

No one should expect him to have more than 30 catches this year... IMO, Nelson is at least 2 years away from making even a sizable impact.

[WeAreArthurMoates]

What difference does it make? EVERY player on the line will be adjusting to new positions/blocking assignments and two will be adjusting to the NFL simultaneously. That's much more difficult than a rookie coming in and playing with 4 guys in the same slots who know their roles.<!-- / message -->

Yes it is tough but if their set in their spots day one of the first OTA, this line will be fine come opening day. The OTA's, Mini-camp, Training Camp and 5 preseason games will be def enough time to build on there contunity. Now if they keep shifting guys around and plugging different one's in, then were F'ed.

[Lexwhat]

I made a list last week of recent rookie TE production (not all TEs, just ones with similar skill set to Nelson) and 35 receptions was the average.... who were you looking at?

Also remember that we have Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, and Josh Reed. We also got Lynch / Jackson / Rhodes. Fine and Schouman aren't going away.

When you have 2 WRs like that, Josh Reed in the slot, and good pass-catching RBs, how can Nelson possibly have more than 30 catches this year?

[WeAreArthurMoates]

When you have 2 WRs like that, Josh Reed in the slot, and good pass-catching RBs, how can Nelson possibly have more than 30 catches this year?

Frankly that's all I want out of him this year. There's only one football that goes around. As long as he can make some plays I will be happy.

[Mahdi]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lexwhat

...

ROOKIES:
Jason Witten had 35 catches and 1 TD his rookie year.
Antonio Gates had 24 catches and 2 TDs.
Tony Gonzalez had 33 catches and 2 TDs.
Tony Scheffler had 18 catches and 4 TDs.
Alge Crumpler had 25 catches for 3 TDs.
Vernon Davis had 20 catches for 3 TDs.
Todd Heap had 16 catches and 1 TD.
Jeremy Shockey had 74 catches and 2 TDs (lone exception).
Kellen Winslow was a moron.

...If those stats don't put things into perspective, I don't know what will. Nelson was a 4th round pick, and the 6th Tight End drafted this year.

No one should expect him to have more than 30 catches this year... IMO, Nelson is at least 2 years away from making even a sizable impact.
yer missing
Olsen (39)
Heath Miller (39),
Zach Miller (44),
Dustin Keller,(48)
Chris Cooley (37),
Owen Daniels (34),
John Carlson (55),

And those are the most recent ones too... teams have been more open to using athletic TEs these days, even as rookies.

[Lexwhat]

yer missing

...

And those are the most recent ones too... teams have been more open to using athletic TEs these days, even as rookies.

Okay fair enough, but let's look into it more deeply...

I think anyone would agree it takes late rounders more time (1-2 years longer) to develop and refine their game than early rounders. IMO, it's unfair to compare Nelson (a 4th rounder), to any 1st / 2nd rounder in terms of rookie production.

For example, how could we look at Heath Miller or Greg Olsen's numbers and expect Nelson to even come close to that? Let's make a better comparison...

Looking anywhere from 3rd round picks to Undrafted Free Agents, I have found a grand total of 4 players in the last FIVE YEARS who had 30+ catches their rookie season:

-- Jason Witten (3rd Rounder): 35 catches, 1 TD
-- Owen Daniels (4th Rounder): 34 catches, 5 TDs
-- Chris Cooley (3rd Rounder): 37 catches, 6 TDs
-- Bo Scaife (6th Rounder): 37 catches, 1 TD

If you find anyone I missed, then please correct me.

We could sit and argue that Nelson was a 2nd round prospect who fell to the 4th round, but usually these type of statements just aren't true. Nelson, being the 6th TE taken in the draft, probably was not viewed by NFL Front Offices as highly as regular fans.

You are free to disagree with my logic, but I still think it's a valid argument.

[justasportsfan]

The most important thing is to protect the qb. We have enough people who can catch the ball. Not only will the rookie OL players have to get used to the strength of the NT they will face in the NFL especially the AFCE , they would also have to learn to read defenses. Then there's Walker and our RT who will also need to learn their position and play consistently vs. tough defenses week in week out. A blocking TE will go a long way in the earlier part of the season until our OL gains chemistry.

[BillsWin]

I forgot I made this thread....................... :earpoke: