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Faceoff - QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills
Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Matt Waldman
Trent Edwards' future outlook gets penalized for being smart in a challenging situation. Footballguys' Worst Case section on Edwards' player page knocks him for his tendency to look for the check-down. If he were more aggressive, he would have repeated J.P. Losman's mistakes -- and we all know how well that worked out. Like Edwards, Drew Brees was also once penalized for being a smart QB with limited resources. It isn't the only thing that Edwards and Brees have in common.
I wrote about Brees when the Chargers' QB was coming off a 2003 season where the team jettisoned their best receiver Curtis Conway and replaced him with an over-muscled, underachieving David Boston. With only a talented young runner, Brees managed to complete 60.84 percent of his passes and throw 17 TDs to 16 INTs. Mediocre stats, but if you consider only 21 second-year, QBs in the modern era completed over 60 percent of their passes with a positive TD-INT ratio, then it changes things.
Fourteen of the 21 QBs with this accomplishment had long, productive careers as starters and 10 of them led their teams to at least one Super Bowl: Staubach, Montana, Simms, Marino, Kelly, Favre, Eason, (Peyton) Manning, Warner, and Brady. Brees' has become a more than worthy addition to this list despite initial criticism that he was as a weak-armed, game manager.
Edwards surrounding talent in 2008 was similar to Brees' second year. The Bills QB's only downfield threat was Lee Evans. If Evans didn't beat his opponent off the line immediately, then who were the other consistent downfield threats in this offense? Not James Hardy, an overrated draft pick lacking the agility and aggressive mindset to catch the ball in traffic on contested intermediate routes. Not Roscoe Parrish, a special teams guy whose skill as a receiver is limited to the underneath zone. Definitely not Robert Royal, a reliable but pedestrian short-range option. Josh Reed? Don't even joke with me.
Despite Edwards' limited surrounding talent, the second-year starter completed 65 percent of his passes with 11 scores and 10 interceptions. These numbers put him in elite company and reflect his skills more than anything else I can mention. Most of the quarterbacks listed above had more surrounding talent than a decent runner and quality receiver at their disposal when they eventually hit their stride.
Edwards earns that chance to elevate his stats with Terrell Owens and rookie TE Shawn Nelson now in the fold. And do I really need to explain how Owens, Evans, and Nelson will force defenses to play the Bills straight up? Plus, offensive coordinator Turk Schonert installed the hurry-up offense and is giving the QB more freedom to change plays at the line.
These changes reflect a trust in Edwards' ability to process the game. The QB will finally get more chances to make blitzing defenses pay rather than check down if the primary option is covered. The Bills offense will leap forward in 2009. Expect the same from Edwards' fantasy production.
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Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller
Trent Edwards is a player that many fantasy owners are touting as the sleeper of the year. Terrell Owens joins the Bills and adds a great weapon for the Buffalo passing game. He joins Lee Evans and a strong running game led by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Considering that Edwards is being taken as QB18 off the board, he is not worth the risk. He is being drafted before David Garrard, Joe Flacco, and Jake Delhomme. Last year, all three passers finished ahead of Edwards, who ended the season as QB23.
Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by Matt Waldman
Trent Edwards' future outlook gets penalized for being smart in a challenging situation. Footballguys' Worst Case section on Edwards' player page knocks him for his tendency to look for the check-down. If he were more aggressive, he would have repeated J.P. Losman's mistakes -- and we all know how well that worked out. Like Edwards, Drew Brees was also once penalized for being a smart QB with limited resources. It isn't the only thing that Edwards and Brees have in common.
I wrote about Brees when the Chargers' QB was coming off a 2003 season where the team jettisoned their best receiver Curtis Conway and replaced him with an over-muscled, underachieving David Boston. With only a talented young runner, Brees managed to complete 60.84 percent of his passes and throw 17 TDs to 16 INTs. Mediocre stats, but if you consider only 21 second-year, QBs in the modern era completed over 60 percent of their passes with a positive TD-INT ratio, then it changes things.
Fourteen of the 21 QBs with this accomplishment had long, productive careers as starters and 10 of them led their teams to at least one Super Bowl: Staubach, Montana, Simms, Marino, Kelly, Favre, Eason, (Peyton) Manning, Warner, and Brady. Brees' has become a more than worthy addition to this list despite initial criticism that he was as a weak-armed, game manager.
Edwards surrounding talent in 2008 was similar to Brees' second year. The Bills QB's only downfield threat was Lee Evans. If Evans didn't beat his opponent off the line immediately, then who were the other consistent downfield threats in this offense? Not James Hardy, an overrated draft pick lacking the agility and aggressive mindset to catch the ball in traffic on contested intermediate routes. Not Roscoe Parrish, a special teams guy whose skill as a receiver is limited to the underneath zone. Definitely not Robert Royal, a reliable but pedestrian short-range option. Josh Reed? Don't even joke with me.
Despite Edwards' limited surrounding talent, the second-year starter completed 65 percent of his passes with 11 scores and 10 interceptions. These numbers put him in elite company and reflect his skills more than anything else I can mention. Most of the quarterbacks listed above had more surrounding talent than a decent runner and quality receiver at their disposal when they eventually hit their stride.
Edwards earns that chance to elevate his stats with Terrell Owens and rookie TE Shawn Nelson now in the fold. And do I really need to explain how Owens, Evans, and Nelson will force defenses to play the Bills straight up? Plus, offensive coordinator Turk Schonert installed the hurry-up offense and is giving the QB more freedom to change plays at the line.
These changes reflect a trust in Edwards' ability to process the game. The QB will finally get more chances to make blitzing defenses pay rather than check down if the primary option is covered. The Bills offense will leap forward in 2009. Expect the same from Edwards' fantasy production.
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Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller
Trent Edwards is a player that many fantasy owners are touting as the sleeper of the year. Terrell Owens joins the Bills and adds a great weapon for the Buffalo passing game. He joins Lee Evans and a strong running game led by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Considering that Edwards is being taken as QB18 off the board, he is not worth the risk. He is being drafted before David Garrard, Joe Flacco, and Jake Delhomme. Last year, all three passers finished ahead of Edwards, who ended the season as QB23.
pretty good assessment on both sides. i would take him as a back up in my fantasy league, but depending on him would be suicide.
" ~ yordad
"Expect rejection, but expect more to overcome it."
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