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Well, i've done these in one form or another for pretty much every year this board has been up. This year i want to talk about the minimum of what we will need to do to get to the playoffs, and what i actually expect to happen. then we'll review what i think the Bills will do in each game, arriving at a final season record prediction.
2009 requires from the Bills a number of minimum hurdles to leap to get into the playoffs in the brutally difficult AFC.
1)* final record 11-5
2) Trent Edwards 3500+ yards and 23+ TDs with less then 15 ints.
3) Marshawn Lynch at 1200+ yards and 10+ total TDs
4) only 30 sacks or less allowed
5) top 15 defense in both scoring and yards
6) 35+ sacks from the defense
7) Schobel and Maybin combining for a min of 18 combined sacks.
8) special teams remain at the top of the league
how realistic is any of this? not very. I could see is meeting 3 of those... maybe even 4 or 5 if everything rolls our way but i don't see us reaching all 8 of those requirements (especially not number 1)
now that i've laid out that bleak picture for the season, here is the prediction for our record.
Just for interest factor, I'll break it down by game... my methodology for my season predictions have resulted in choosing a final record within 1 win of the final season total for every Bills season in the last 16 years, excepting 2001 (15 for 16). For 3 of the last 4 years my tallies have been exactly correct. (9 out of the 16 years I've picked the final record) I only pick wins based upon a confident belief we should win. Home and away are tie breakers when I'm tepid. (note i won Shelby's 2008 Bills zone season record prediction contest last season, pure chance really, as i didn't know i was even entered in it until i won... lol)
2009 prediction
5-11
(not only will we get 5 wins but we will not draft in the top 5, it will be an all around lost season)
2009 requires from the Bills a number of minimum hurdles to leap to get into the playoffs in the brutally difficult AFC.
1)* final record 11-5
2) Trent Edwards 3500+ yards and 23+ TDs with less then 15 ints.
3) Marshawn Lynch at 1200+ yards and 10+ total TDs
4) only 30 sacks or less allowed
5) top 15 defense in both scoring and yards
6) 35+ sacks from the defense
7) Schobel and Maybin combining for a min of 18 combined sacks.
8) special teams remain at the top of the league
how realistic is any of this? not very. I could see is meeting 3 of those... maybe even 4 or 5 if everything rolls our way but i don't see us reaching all 8 of those requirements (especially not number 1)
now that i've laid out that bleak picture for the season, here is the prediction for our record.
Just for interest factor, I'll break it down by game... my methodology for my season predictions have resulted in choosing a final record within 1 win of the final season total for every Bills season in the last 16 years, excepting 2001 (15 for 16). For 3 of the last 4 years my tallies have been exactly correct. (9 out of the 16 years I've picked the final record) I only pick wins based upon a confident belief we should win. Home and away are tie breakers when I'm tepid. (note i won Shelby's 2008 Bills zone season record prediction contest last season, pure chance really, as i didn't know i was even entered in it until i won... lol)
- @ New England Patriots 0-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1
New Orleans Saints 1-2
@ Miami Dolphins 1-3
Cleveland Browns 2-3
@ New York Jets 2-4
@ Carolina Panthers 2-5
Houston Texans 2-6
@ Tennessee Titans 2-7
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
Miami Dolphins 4-7
New York Jets (Toronto) 4-8
@ Kansas City Chiefs 5-8
New England Patriots 5-9
@ Atlanta Falcons 5-10
Indianapolis Colts 5-11
2009 prediction
5-11
(not only will we get 5 wins but we will not draft in the top 5, it will be an all around lost season)
" ~ yordad
"Expect rejection, but expect more to overcome it." 
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