the Buffalo Bills 2009 season preview

[Ingtar33]

Well, i've done these in one form or another for pretty much every year this board has been up. This year i want to talk about the minimum of what we will need to do to get to the playoffs, and what i actually expect to happen. then we'll review what i think the Bills will do in each game, arriving at a final season record prediction.

2009 requires from the Bills a number of minimum hurdles to leap to get into the playoffs in the brutally difficult AFC.

1)* final record 11-5
2) Trent Edwards 3500+ yards and 23+ TDs with less then 15 ints.
3) Marshawn Lynch at 1200+ yards and 10+ total TDs
4) only 30 sacks or less allowed
5) top 15 defense in both scoring and yards
6) 35+ sacks from the defense
7) Schobel and Maybin combining for a min of 18 combined sacks.
8) special teams remain at the top of the league

how realistic is any of this? not very. I could see is meeting 3 of those... maybe even 4 or 5 if everything rolls our way but i don't see us reaching all 8 of those requirements (especially not number 1)

now that i've laid out that bleak picture for the season, here is the prediction for our record.


Just for interest factor, I'll break it down by game... my methodology for my season predictions have resulted in choosing a final record within 1 win of the final season total for every Bills season in the last 16 years, excepting 2001 (15 for 16). For 3 of the last 4 years my tallies have been exactly correct. (9 out of the 16 years I've picked the final record) I only pick wins based upon a confident belief we should win. Home and away are tie breakers when I'm tepid. (note i won Shelby's 2008 Bills zone season record prediction contest last season, pure chance really, as i didn't know i was even entered in it until i won... lol)

@ New England Patriots 0-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1
New Orleans Saints 1-2
@ Miami Dolphins 1-3
Cleveland Browns 2-3
@ New York Jets 2-4
@ Carolina Panthers 2-5
Houston Texans 2-6
@ Tennessee Titans 2-7
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
Miami Dolphins 4-7
New York Jets (Toronto) 4-8
@ Kansas City Chiefs 5-8
New England Patriots 5-9
@ Atlanta Falcons 5-10
Indianapolis Colts 5-11

2009 prediction
5-11

(not only will we get 5 wins but we will not draft in the top 5, it will be an all around lost season)

[colin]

so negative!!!!

i disagree, i think we are 8-11 wins.

[Ebenezer]

Well, i've done these in one form or another for pretty much every year this board has been up. This year i want to talk about the minimum of what we will need to do to get to the playoffs, and what i actually expect to happen. then we'll review what i think the Bills will do in each game, arriving at a final season record prediction.

2009 requires from the Bills a number of minimum hurdles to leap to get into the playoffs in the brutally difficult AFC.

1)* final record 11-5
2) Trent Edwards 3500+ yards and 23+ TDs with less then 15 ints.
3) Marshawn Lynch at 1200+ yards and 10+ total TDs
4) only 30 sacks or less allowed
5) top 15 defense in both scoring and yards
6) 35+ sacks from the defense
7) Schobel and Maybin combining for a min of 18 combined sacks.
8) special teams remain at the top of the league

how realistic is any of this? not very. I could see is meeting 3 of those... maybe even 4 or 5 if everything rolls our way but i don't see us reaching all 8 of those requirements (especially not number 1)

now that i've laid out that bleak picture for the season, here is the prediction for our record.


Just for interest factor, I'll break it down by game... my methodology for my season predictions have resulted in choosing a final record within 1 win of the final season total for every Bills season in the last 16 years, excepting 2001 (15 for 16). For 3 of the last 4 years my tallies have been exactly correct. (9 out of the 16 years I've picked the final record) I only pick wins based upon a confident belief we should win. Home and away are tie breakers when I'm tepid. (note i won Shelby's 2008 Bills zone season record prediction contest last season, pure chance really, as i didn't know i was even entered in it until i won... lol)

@ New England Patriots 0-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-1
New Orleans Saints 1-2
@ Miami Dolphins 1-3
Cleveland Browns 2-3
@ New York Jets 2-4
@ Carolina Panthers 2-5
Houston Texans 2-6
@ Tennessee Titans 2-7
@ Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7
Miami Dolphins 4-7
New York Jets (Toronto) 4-8
@ Kansas City Chiefs 5-8
New England Patriots 5-9
@ Atlanta Falcons 5-10
Indianapolis Colts 5-11

2009 prediction
5-11

(not only will we get 5 wins but we will not draft in the top 5, it will be an all around lost season)
I say if they are 3-8 just tank it and get into the top 5.

[Novacane]

There is no reason other than picking with your heart to predict 11 wins. 8 wins is the most this team gets. That would be a huge accomplishment. I just hope 8 wins would not save Dicks job. I'm going with 7-9.

[BillsWin]

Im sticking to my guns. 9-7 no playoffs. T.O is worth a couple of wins because of what he does to open up an offense, and hell make that difficult clutch catch.

[Novacane]

Im sticking to my guns. 9-7 no playoffs.


That would probably save Dicks job since we showed improvement. :sick:

[Ingtar33]

so negative!!!!

i disagree, i think we are 8-11 wins.


how are we going to get to 8 or even 11 wins?

[Novacane]

It's called dreaming. Reality sets in 2 weeks from tonight.

[yordad]

how are we going to get to 8 or even 11 wins?By out scoring the opposition 8-11 times. :idunno:

[Ingtar33]

im more depressed that the day i saw the schedule i predicted a 5-11 season... and after 4 preseason games i still see a 5-11 season.

i was hoping that free agency and the draft would change things. they haven't

[Dr. Lecter]

im more depressed that the day i saw the schedule i predicted a 5-11 season... and after 4 preseason games i still see a 5-11 season.

i was hoping that free agency and the draft would change things. they haven't

You are more optimistic than I.

I am going with 3-13, maybe 4-12 if TO can create a win.

[Jimbuktu]

I agree on 5-11. The odor coming from One Bills Drive smells exactly like a 5-11 season.

[Luisito23]

We'll go 8-8 and save Jauron's job...

[Ingtar33]

just for kicks... here are the games i think we have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
@ New York Jets
Houston Texans
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets (Toronto)
@ Kansas City Chiefs

that's 9 games we should have a chance to be in. even if we somehow win all of those games, we won't be close to being in wild card competition. lets say they need to win all of those games plus, they need to win two more to get into the wildcard...

New Orleans Saints
@Carolina Panthers

now.. i don't see how we beat the saints.. other then the fact we might get a 40+ mph windy day at the Ralph, which might crush their passing attack. then we might stand a chance. the panther's game is on the road... and frankly... unless delhome has a game like he did last year vs the cards, i don't see how we beat them on the road.

either way... it looks impossible to me. we'll need a complete collapse by pretty much every team on those lists to get into the playoffs.

[Crisis]

how terrible would it be to be in playoff contention and need to win vs the colts the last week of the season...who are resting their starters, and lose to 3rd stringers again. :(

i'd rather go 5-11 than have that happen again

[psubills62]

just for kicks... here are the games i think we have a snowballs chance in hell of winning this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@ Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns
@ New York Jets
Houston Texans
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets (Toronto)
@ Kansas City Chiefs

that's 9 games we should have a chance to be in. even if we somehow win all of those games, we won't be close to being in wild card competition. lets say they need to win all of those games plus, they need to win two more to get into the wildcard...

New Orleans Saints
@Carolina Panthers

now.. i don't see how we beat the saints.. other then the fact we might get a 40+ mph windy day at the Ralph, which might crush their passing attack. then we might stand a chance. the panther's game is on the road... and frankly... unless delhome has a game like he did last year vs the cards, i don't see how we beat them on the road.

either way... it looks impossible to me. we'll need a complete collapse by pretty much every team on those lists to get into the playoffs.

I'm as depressed as anyone, but I have to say that Carolina is possible mainly because of their defense. They have almost nothing at DT. Their run defense projects to be pretty horrible and their pass D hasn't looked much better.

I'm not saying a win at Carolina will happen, but I think the Panthers are set up to fall more than people think. You can never tell with teams from the NFC South....

In the end, though, 5-11 sounds about right.

[MassEffect218435]

Im sticking to my guns. 9-7 no playoffs. T.O is worth a couple of wins because of what he does to open up an offense, and hell make that difficult clutch catch.You didn't watch him much in Dallas if you think he regularly makes "clutch" catches.

[trapezeus]

for what is was worth, i predicted 3-13 right after the Jauron announcement. after i went through game by game, i saw 5-11.

That's really the spread for me. 3-13 to 5-11. It will be cosmic intervention if we do any better. and if we do worse, that won't be terribly shocking.

[Mr. Pink]

I predicted 5-11 in the "official predict the season" record thread.

I think 5-11 is too optimistic right now.

This is frankly a bad football team that might actually be worse on paper than it was last year.

[DynaPaul]

In the words of C3P0 "We're doomed!"

[don137]

As somene who lives in Charlotte with season ticket to the Panthers I can see a Bills win. The Panthers are going through a lot of he same problems that the Bills are and are strugglig badly. Their defense is one of the worst in the league and Delhomme does not look good.

[Hemlepp53]

11-5.. playoff loss first round. Maybin and TO blow up and stun the leauge....


Shhhhhh.... Dont ruin it for me... If i say it .. it will happen... If I say it .... it will happen...

[Ingtar33]

Just for interest factor, I'll break it down by game... my methodology for my season predictions have resulted in choosing a final record within 1 win of the final season total for every Bills season in the last 16 years, excepting 2001 (15 for 16). For 3 of the last 4 years my tallies have been exactly correct. (9 out of the 16 years I've picked the final record) I only pick wins based upon a confident belief we should win. Home and away are tie breakers when I'm tepid. (note i won Shelby's 2008 Bills zone season record prediction contest last season, pure chance really, as i didn't know i was even entered in it until i won... lol)


2009 prediction
5-11

(not only will we get 5 wins but we will not draft in the top 5, it will be an all around lost season)

16 for 17 in predicting the final Bills record within 1 game

God i wish i was wrong. when i read this post though i have to laugh. Did we reach any of those milestones i said we had to reach to get into the playoffs? not-a-one. i feel like a moron for claiming that it was possible to even reach 3 of those.

i wish i wasn't right about that last line i bolded.