There's alotta ifs, but...

[chernobylwraiths]

The Bills CAN win tonight. I know I don't have a ton of faith that it will happen, but it can.

The defense has to get pressure on Brady, so Schobel and Maybin have to do the job. If we blitz, we HAVE to get through because if Brady has an extra half second, he will kill us. And we HAVE to create turnovers.

The offense has to open it up a bit. This defense is fairly new and untested. We have to do things that Belechick isn't expecting. Jackson has to have a good game and Edwards has to keep the defense honest by throwing downfield a few times. Maybe a return for a TD by Roscoe to make it three years in a row.

I want this team to get new coaches and front office as much as the next guy, but I want them to win more. So.... LET'S GO BUFFALO!

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

It certainly isn't as impossible as some are making it out to be, although it is unlikely.

As I just wrote in another thread, the Bills were pretty successful in generating pressure last year in the 4+ games that they played with Schobel still in the lineup. Even though they only had 10 sacks in those games, they put a lot of heat on the opposing QBs in those games. While the Pats are a better team than any of those opponents, the addition of Maybin, who has an incredible first step, when he lines up opposite Schobel (who has sacked Brady more than anyone else and has had some success against M.Light), should at least make up for that difference.

I think that the Bills can get some pressure on Brady. I also think that, while Brady has always had an uncanny knack of feeling the rush and taking just that one or two steps to avoid it, Brady's knee injury may make it a little easier for them to put pressure on him (I don't think you will see him taking off and scampering downfield like he did in the past).

If the Bills can do that, they will have a chance to keep the game close so long as they also keep the Pats from ripping through them with draw plays. It will be up to the LBs and secondary to keep Maroney and F.Taylor in check on those plays--something that the Bills have failed to do in the past.

I know that Belichick is a defensive genius, but the Pats will have five new starters on defense and they are not going to all work as well as a unit as the Bruschi-led defenses of the past did. They will be tough, no doubt, but there is likely to be some vulnerability there. Especially because they have no idea what the Bills are going to do on offense--because no one has seen Van Pelt call an offense in the NFL before--and Belichick, who likes to tailor his game-plan to the opponent, won't be able to design his defensive game-plan as precisely as he usually is able to do.

We all know what Fred Jackson can do and what he did to the Pats in the wind last season. We have some idea of what TO can add to the Bills passing game. And, while they are going to make some horrible mistakes, I actually have some confidence that the Bills' young offensive line will actually play better than most folks expect them to play most of the time.

If Trent Edwards can keep his head and keep his inexperienced offensive linemen from panicking when they make mistakes, I think that the Bills will be able to move the ball a lot better than they did in preseason and better than most people expect. If they do and take advantage of their opportunities to score, I think that they will have a chance to win.

But, they can't lose their heads and let the game get away from them. It will be absolutely crucial for them to keep their poise and spirit and bounce back when something goes wrong, a mistake is made, or something goes against them. They can't afford to get down or give up at any point. And, they have to keep Trent Edwards upright and in the game.

The odds are very heavily stacked against them. But, I actually think that the fact that this is the first game of the season and they have made so many changes just prior to the season works for them going against the Pats more than it works against them. It has been noted that Brady looked great in the preseason when he didn't get pressured, but looked a bit unsteady when he did. If the combination of Schobel, Maybin and Stroud can generate some pressure on Brady and make him a little shaky, I think that could narrow those odds enough for the Bills to at least have a chance. If that happens, it will be up to the offense to take advantage of that opportunity to make the game truly competitive.

[shelby]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

Great breakdown, LTBF.

i am ready as i'll ever be. i pray the team is, as well.

[chernobylwraiths]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

It certainly isn't as impossible as some are making it out to be, although it is unlikely.

As I just wrote in another thread, the Bills were pretty successful in generating pressure last year in the 4+ games that they played with Schobel still in the lineup. Even though they only had 10 sacks in those games, they put a lot of heat on the opposing QBs in those games. While the Pats are a better team than any of those opponents, the addition of Maybin, who has an incredible first step, when he lines up opposite Schobel (who has sacked Brady more than anyone else and has had some success against M.Light), should at least make up for that difference.

I think that the Bills can get some pressure on Brady. I also think that, while Brady has always had an uncanny knack of feeling the rush and taking just that one or two steps to avoid it, Brady's knee injury may make it a little easier for them to put pressure on him (I don't think you will see him taking off and scampering downfield like he did in the past).

If the Bills can do that, they will have a chance to keep the game close so long as they also keep the Pats from ripping through them with draw plays. It will be up to the LBs and secondary to keep Maroney and F.Taylor in check on those plays--something that the Bills have failed to do in the past.

I know that Belichick is a defensive genius, but the Pats will have five new starters on defense and they are not going to all work as well as a unit as the Bruschi-led defenses of the past did. They will be tough, no doubt, but there is likely to be some vulnerability there. Especially because they have no idea what the Bills are going to do on offense--because no one has seen Van Pelt call an offense in the NFL before--and Belichick, who likes to tailor his game-plan to the opponent, won't be able to design his defensive game-plan as precisely as he usually is able to do.

We all know what Fred Jackson can do and what he did to the Pats in the wind last season. We have some idea of what TO can add to the Bills passing game. And, while they are going to make some horrible mistakes, I actually have some confidence that the Bills' young offensive line will actually play better than most folks expect them to play most of the time.

If Trent Edwards can keep his head and keep his inexperienced offensive linemen from panicking when they make mistakes, I think that the Bills will be able to move the ball a lot better than they did in preseason and better than most people expect. If they do and take advantage of their opportunities to score, I think that they will have a chance to win.

But, they can't lose their heads and let the game get away from them. It will be absolutely crucial for them to keep their poise and spirit and bounce back when something goes wrong, a mistake is made, or something goes against them. They can't afford to get down or give up at any point. And, they have to keep Trent Edwards upright and in the game.

The odds are very heavily stacked against them. But, I actually think that the fact that this is the first game of the season and they have made so many changes just prior to the season works for them going against the Pats more than it works against them. It has been noted that Brady looked great in the preseason when he didn't get pressured, but looked a bit unsteady when he did. If the combination of Schobel, Maybin and Stroud can generate some pressure on Brady and make him a little shaky, I think that could narrow those odds enough for the Bills to at least have a chance. If that happens, it will be up to the offense to take advantage of that opportunity to make the game truly competitive.

Good to see you around man! Thanks for the analysis.

[Meathead]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

the reason the 'any given sunday' matra exists in the nfl is primarily due to one thing: turnovers

just like any vastly inferior team the bills can really only win this game by winning the to battle. theres just no way they can line up and 'outplay' the cheats so they will need to make the huge plays that pull them even and over the top

the one piece of good news is that the bills run d has been quite impressive lately. forcing marica to throw isnt exactly reassuring but at least thats making them play into the bills strength (deep dbs) and creates more pick6 type big play situations

unless they can get marony or fred to fumble multiple times, very unlikely, they will need at least two picks to win this game

[Forward_Lateral]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

Is Maybin starting?

[LifetimeBillsFan]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

Is Maybin starting?

With this coaching staff? Probably not. Especially since he missed so much of training camp.

But, he looked so good in the time that he played in the preseason that they won't be able to keep him off of the field. He will be in the DE rotation.

With C.Ellis and Denney able to spell Schobel, Maybin will probably spell Kelsay opposite Schobel, etc. I think he will probably be in on obvious passing downs and maybe see about a third of the snaps, perhaps a bit more. Which is probably about all that he can handle at this point after missing all of camp.

But, I think he will be a factor opposite Schobel when he is in there.

[Forward_Lateral]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

I hope you are right, LTBF. I think Maybin on 3rd downs, other passing downs, will be a force to recon with.

I hope they (the Bills coaches) get creative with him.

[mybills]

Re: There's alotta ifs, but...

NE will not shut out, or blow out, the Bills. This game is going to be close.