Accuscore's prediction

[psubills62]

Not sure how many of you look at this, but it's something I often glance at before the games, just to see if they predict any surprises.

For the people who say we have "no chance," Accuscore says otherwise. This is predicted to be one of the closer games of the weekend.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/intel?gameId=290927002


The Bills have talented DBs and the pass defense is better than their current ranking of 2nd worst in the league defending the pass. They have allowed 664 passing yards this season, but they do have 3 INTs. You cannot expect to beat the Saints in an aerial shootout. The Bills needs to pick off Drew Brees at least twice while RB Fred Jackson controls time of possession with 75+ rushing yards. If they can hit both of these game milestones they improve from being a 42 percent underdog to a 70 percent favorite.

The average score they are predicting is 29.2 to 26.7.

[jamze132]

Accuscore is actually pretty accurate when talking about wins and losses...

[mybills]

They should just post here and guess the score for zone bucks. ;)

[psubills62]

Accuscore is actually pretty accurate when talking about wins and losses...

Last year I had a lot more time on my hands and I tried to keep track of how accurate Accuscore was, and see how their predictive capabilities varied depending on how confident they were. I think I managed to record their predictions for most of the season, but I never got around to compiling the data. I think from looking at it, they're generally about 70% correct.

I found that every week there was one or two games where I was surprised at who they picked to be the winner. And it seemed that every time that happened, that game was predicted correctly. It intrigued me, so I embarked on a statistical nightmare, maybe I should finish it sometime.

[jamze132]

Last year I had a lot more time on my hands and I tried to keep track of how accurate Accuscore was, and see how their predictive capabilities varied depending on how confident they were. I think I managed to record their predictions for most of the season, but I never got around to compiling the data. I think from looking at it, they're generally about 70% correct.

I found that every week there was one or two games where I was surprised at who they picked to be the winner. And it seemed that every time that happened, that game was predicted correctly. It intrigued me, so I embarked on a statistical nightmare, maybe I should finish it sometime.
Yes indeed.

[YardRat]

How did they do with our first two games?

[JD]

How did they do with our first two games?
Good question

[JD]

I'm not a member but I found this to be interesting..


The Jets have seen their playoff chances sky-rocket from a pre-season 11 percent to over 60 percent because they have won two games in which they were the underdogs. Meanwhile the Patriots have suffered a gigantic drop to 57 percent for two reasons. First, they lost to a division rival (the Jets) and second, their poor play to start the season and injuries on defense has hurt their winning percentage in future games. Their playoff percentage will increase substantially over the coming weeks if they can prove that they can perform close to 2007 levels. The Bills increased their playoff probability to 25 percent despite being just 1-1 because their quality of play has been high.

The Bengals were the second biggest underdog in Week 2 and by beating Green Bay they significantly improved their playoff chances. The Pittsburgh Steelers saw the biggest drop-off in the AFC North not only because they lost a game they were favored to win, but because their primary rival, Baltimore, won a game they were expected to lose.

The Colts are 2-0 but their playoff percentage increased significantly because their primary pre-season competition in the AFC South, Tennessee, is a surprising 0-2. Tennessee dropped over 13 percentage points to the primary benefit of the Colts and Texans. The Texans chances improved nearly 8 percentage points, but this was less than you might expect given the magnitude of their upset victory of the Titans. The good start from the Colts and additional Wild Card competition from the Jets, Patriots, and Bills somewhat limited the Texans’ improvement.

http://accuscore.com/nfl-playoff-shifts-after-2-weeks

[mybills]

How did they do with our first two games?
bump

[psubills62]

bump

I looked for a little bit but didn't find any reference to their previous predictions, unfortunately.

[jamze132]

How did they do with our first two games?
100%

Accuscore pick the Pats to beat us and us to beat the Bucks. It is predicting a loss for us against NO.

[Don't Panic]

Had us beating TB 21-19 and losing to the Pats 31-20.

[BillsOwnAll]

100%

Accuscore pick the Pats to beat us and us to beat the Bucks. It is predicting a loss for us against NO.


Damn were so screwed then :rolleyes:

[BillsWin]

a 70 % favorite????

[BillsWin]

i dig it.

[Nighthawk]

The Bills pass defense is brutal and hasn't stopped anybody yet. Although I have hope that they can stay close, I just don't see them stopping Brees unless Perry Fewell gets his head out of his ass and actually learns how to put pressure on opposing QB's and not let them sit back there and have all day. Oh yeah, not playing the f'n DB's 10 yards off the WR's would help!