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THE DON'S
Crystal Ball
2009 SEASON
WEEK 3 PICKS
By DonCanabis/D'BOYZ
Analyst/Godfather
Well as I told you guys Week 2 and Week 3 are the head scratchers bad teams look great and mess thing up because their season is almost on the line, Yeah we can all say that’s too early to say that but stats don’t lie and prepare for the worst week of the Season because no team wants to be 0-3 because your chances to reach the playoffs are practically zero. It has been 11 years since the last time a 0-3 team reached the Playoffs, so for some teams this week is almost their season.
Ok some Quick Hits from last week.
•Miami has screwed me over twice, they showed a great running offense with the wildcat at full motion and the defense held Peyton for most of the night but at the end the play calling was way too conservative (running in 3rd and 6), and that was one of the worst hurry up offense I’ve seen in years. What Miami showed it’s they have zero confidence in Chad and will only let him do dump offs
•Dallas has the weapons but still doesn’t have the championship team mentality. Teams that aspire for great things can have bad games or tough games but at the end find ways to win. Dallas dropped the ball in the final drive and it has showed me that they still don’t get it.
•The total opposite from Baltimore who right now looks pretty good as my SB champions prediction when the game was on the line they stopped SD.
•Injuries in 3 teams freak me out Philadelphia, San Diego and New England. They are just piling up bodies. It doesn’t look like they will have enough ammo for the end.
•It’s amazing how quickly some of last year stars are becoming a no show this year, Slaton, Forte. But it’s good some are getting their career back Benson, Shockey who had them in their fantasy team anyone.
•It looks like I pissed somebody off because luck it’s not going my way with my overall predictions. 4 games this week Pit, Ten, Dal and Mia turn back on me in the last quarter or drive I just can’t catch a break. Still I broke even this week.
•Some interesting facts, Was has scored 0 TD in 2 weeks, NYG is 0-6 in TD’s in the redzone and Dallas has 0 sacks and 0 turnovers.
On to the games
Kansas City at Philadelphia -9 .5 Ovr/Und 42
Well it looks like McNabb it’s out again, this game it’s important for both team; KC doesn’t want to be 0-3 and see their division slipped away and Kolb with Vick and Garcia breathing on his neck not only is playing for the backup position but for his future spot on this team. Now the line is way too big for this game take the home team Kolb didn’t play bad against NO the game just got way too big but take the spread both teams will fight for this game.
Straight: Phi
Spread: KC
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Cleveland at Baltimore -13.5 Ovr/Und 39
There have been two weird things in Baltimore this past 2 week they’ve scored a lot of points and they’ve been scored a lot to, a thing I don’t like. Cleveland has lost their first two matches by at least 14 points, there are a lot of problems in Cle fights and Lewis won’t play. I don’t like taking lines this big because one mistake can really screw your prediction an I don’t really know if Baltimore can keep up scoring this much for 3 weeks but Cleveland hasn’t show me any offense the first 2 week.
Straight: Bal
Spread: Bal
Ovr/Und: Ovr
New York Giants at Tampa Bay6.5 Ovr/Und 44
New York defense is hurt; they are missing guys in their front seven and secondary also, the giants haven’t been able to put the ball in once they reach the endzone. Finally Manning connected with some of his WR and the unit looks better. Tampa Bay has a really bad secondary and huge questions on offense if. Leftwich can exploit their secondary and Cadillac run’s between that hurt Defensive line we could see and upset but right now I don’t buy it.
Straight: NYG
Spread: NYG
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Atlanta at New England -4 Ovr/Und 45
I have to say Atlanta has surprised me, especially Tony Gonzalez man he might be 60 but he still plays like he’s 22. It looks like Belichick ego has finally gone over his head and he has bought the mastermind mentality. This is why I didn’t picked NE like almost half the country to be in the SB. Questions about Brady’s Knee, Young Defense, Belichick doing all DC, OC and GM. For me it has been too much for him to handle and it’s going to cost them this year. Atlanta doesn’t play great on the road so that’s why I’m taking NE at least this week.
Straight: NE
Spread: NE
Ovr/Und: Und
Tennessee at New York Jets -2.5 Ovr/Und 37
A team that shouldn’t be 0-2 it’s playing a team that has proved they should be 0-2.Mark Sanchez has played almost mistake free football and what Rex Ryan has done to that defense and overall the mentality of that team it’s amazing. But, the titans are playing for everything so I expect Mark to have his first rookie showing in the NFL.
Straight: TEN
Spread: TEN
Ovr/Und: OVR
Green Bay at St. Louis 6.5 Ovr/Und 41
Where is the Oline in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers is getting killed out there, this game is just what the packers needed a game to regroup. It’s St Louis the new Lions?
Straight: GB
Spread: GB
Ovr/Und: Und
San Francisco at Minnesota -7 Ovr/Und 40.5
Like I said last week I didn’t gave too much respect to SF, and everyone is with Minnesota but they have played two really bad teams and have started late both teams have great running games and both teams have great defense against the run so this is the first week Favre is really going to be tested. I smell an upset here or at least a really close hard fought match
Straight:Min
Spread:SF
Ovr/Und:Und
Jacksonville at Houston 4 Ovr/Und 46.5
Well it took 1 week to the offense to show up for Houston and on the road that was great, the Texans usually play great at home and Jacksonville is up for a long, long season.
Straight: Hou
Spread: Hou
Ovr/Und: Und
Washington at Detroit 6.5 Ovr/Und 38.5
UPSET OF THE WEEK
If there’s a week Detroit can end with their bad luck is this week. Detroit has been bad but at least they have moved the ball and scored. Washington is a mess right now and Portis is hurt. Lion’s fans this will be a week to leave the face bags at home.
Straight: Det
Spread: Det
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Chicago at Seattle 2 Ovr/Und 37
We have known how Seattle plays without Hasselbeck so I’m really surprised about how low this line actually is. If it’s still like this by the time you go and place your bet take it without hesitation.
Straight: Chi
Spread: Chi
Ovr/Und: Ovr
New Orleans at Buffalo 6 Ovr/Und 53
I really like how both teams are playing, buffalo has surprised me a little specially the oline which suffer a lot of changes. How long can NO keep putting big numbers and can the Saints defense stop the big play ability of the bills? I don’t expect Brees having 3 huge weeks in a row.
Straight: NO
Spread: BUF
Ovr/Und: Und
Miami at San Diego -6 Ovr/Und 44
San Diego it’s really hurt on both sides of the ball, but I can’t trust Miami 3 weeks in a row the Chargers played well against Baltimore despite these injuries so I expect a good game from them.
Straight: SD
Spread: MIA
Ovr/Und: OVR
Denver at Oakland : -1 Ovr/Und 36
Well it looks like I’m going to lose a bet against some Broncos fans because it sure looks their team it’s going to start 3-0. If only the raiders had somebody else at QB.
Straight:Den
Spread: Den
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati : 4 Ovr/Und 37
Both teams made me look bad last week Pit by playing bad and Cin by actually playing good. I’ve said it many times that pit Oline is going to be the downfall of this team. Expect a comeback from the champs no way they fall 1-2
Straight:Pit
Spread:Pit
Ovr/Und: Ovr
Indianapolis at Arizona : -1.5 Ovr/Und 48
I don’t like this game one bit both teams haven’t convince me yet. Indianapolis hasn’t looked good in both their first two games, so what do I take for this game. Well, Ind barely beat Jacksonville; Arizona destroyed them, and they’re playing at home, take the home.
Straight:Ari
Spread: Ari
Ovr/Und:Ovr
Carolina at Dallas : -9 Ovr/Und 46
Both teams really need this win, Dallas has shown flashes but their Defense hasn’t shown much. Carolina is fighting for their life and a QB for his future, I expect the home team to bring a W at home but the 9 points line is way too big for such an important match. (Take the Over)
Straight: Dal
Spread: Car
Ovr/Und: Ovr
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