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Walterfootball picks the Bills
Houston Texans (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)
Line: Texans by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Texans -1.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Texans -2.
Sunday, 1:00 ET
The Game. Edge: Texans.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries
HOUSTON OFFENSE: Matt Schaub has been on fire. He leads the league in both passing yards (2,074) and touchdowns (16). The Texans are moving the chains at will against the opposition, as Schaub has plenty of awesome weapons to work with, including Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton. Owen Daniels, meanwhile, has become one of the top 3-4 tight ends in the league.
With all that in mind, Schaub might struggle a bit in Buffalo. Johnson had a lung contusion, and while he may play, we don't know if he'll be 100 percent. More prominently, the Bills are third versus the pass and they intercept a lot of balls. They've frustrated quarterbacks all year, including Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
The way to beat Buffalo is on the ground. Unfortunately, the Texans won't be able to do that. Slaton is a very talented player, but his offensive line just isn't opening up any holes for him.
BUFFALO OFFENSE: I never thought Ryan Fitzpatrick would ever be an upgrade for any team in this league, but that has proven to be the case in Buffalo. Unlike Trent Edwards, Fitzpatrick is getting the ball to his best player, Lee Evans. What a concept.
Fitzpatrick should have a decent outing. He's going against a secondary that allowed Alex Smith to look like the second coming of Joe Montana. And Buffalo's offensive line, while pedestrian, should be able to keep Houston's defenders out of the backfield; in seven games, the Texans have only nine sacks.
Like last week, the Bills won't be able to run the ball. The Texans may rank 25th versus the rush, but they've been a lot better against it lately. In back-to-back weeks, they've shut down Cedric Benson and Frank Gore.
RECAP: I like the Bills here for a few reasons. First, Houston has the Colts next week, so the team may not be completely focused. Also, I don't like the Texans in the role of a road favorite. They're a good team, but I just don't think they are quite there yet. In franchise history, they've been road favorites only twice. They're 0-2 against the spread in that situation.
Also, one more thing of note. If you look below, you'll see some crazy Big Al trend that is 114-68 against the spread (taken from handicapping legend Al McMordie). I don't mind siding with something that works that well.
The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Bills will be more focused for this game; the Texans are in an obvious Look-Ahead Alert because they have the Colts next week.
The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
The public loves the Texans and their high-octane offense. Percentage of money on Houston: 91% (15,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Bills.
Big Al Trend: Since 1980, unrested home dogs are 114-68 ATS off a straight-up road win vs. team coming off home win. Texans are 14-24 ATS after a win (7-8 since 2007).
Texans are 0-2 ATS as road favorites in franchise history.
Bills are 22-11 ATS in November home games the previous 33 contests.
Bills are 14-6 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
Bills are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Opening Line: Texans -3.5.
Opening Total: 40.5.
Weather: Showers, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.
For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.
Week 8 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Texans 17
Bills +3.5 (3 Units)
Under 41.5 (1 Unit)
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