On the new HC, Im going out on a limb

[X-Era]

I think Shanahan signs up this week.

The media will play the move off that we just threw a bunch of money at him and he took the money.

But heres what I think actually happens.

I think Shanahan takes the job because he knows hes competing with the rest of the big namers out there, he knows the Bills are making a serious offer, they will give him total control, and he knows that the supposedly "more attractive" jobs aren't as attractive as they look.

Im not so sure that Shanny wants to have to work with any GM, or any of these meddling owners. I think that puts SD (remember that AJ Smith basically ran Shotty out of town), Dall, Wash, and Oak right out of the mix right off the bat. BTW, I think the same applies to Cowher, Dungy, or Holmgren as well.

Thurm is on WGR and just said that very thing.

Thurm also brought up a good point and said that having a challenge with a young team and needs is something that some of these guys may like. They may not want established teams as much as they want to rebuild a squad... they like the challenge.

I think Mike is a smart guy, who will see our seriousness, see our offer, and he will realize that its a good (not great) situation, is offering a lot of money, really wants him to run it, and that the other likely spots arent going to be as good.

If Shanahan doesnt take it, I could really see Cowher taking it. The only thing that prevents Bill from taking it is geographical location. He supposedly wants to stay around where he is and where his roots are now. The Carolina job would win because of location only. The rest of the situation is very similar to Buffalo...but that also assumes that Carolina will offer as much money as we will. I think Bill just might take it.

[THATHURMANATOR]

That is quite a limb.....

[Pinkerton Security]

I hope you're right!

[X-Era]

That is quite a limb.....

Sometimes, I make risky calls, and Im sticking with my gut.

[justasportsfan]

can't sign unless they prove they interviewed a minority. I'll go out on a limb and say the next HC retains Fewell as DC.

[X-Era]

:lol: i just went to wiki to look up Bill Cowher and there is speculation in there that we already signed Bill to 4 years 7.7 mill... Its total BS and I wont post it, its SPAM. I just think its funny.

[Dr. Lecter]

I agree and was thinking about this last night.

It would make for an interesting Fishie week!

[X-Era]

can't sign unless they prove they interviewed a minority. I'll go out on a limb and say the next HC retains Fewell as DC.
Do you know they haven't interviewed Fewell? Or Dungy for that matter?

[elltrain22]

I like your optimism X-era. I also believe that Shanny is gonna have a very tough time saying no to our offer.

[justasportsfan]

Do you know they haven't interviewed Fewell? Or Dungy for that matter?

Do you? I don't think he gets signed soon but I hope you are right.

[jonah7777]

I am not sure Fewell will stay most Coaches want there own staff and someone that Jauron thought highly of would be all the reason they need to say bye.. The bills really need to send Brandon back to selling pepsi and fire the rest of the staff as soon as possible

[X-Era]

I like your optimism X-era. I also believe that Shanny is gonna have a very tough time saying no to our offer.

Im not saying its a sure thing, it isnt... Im home sick and have time to discuss it. So, what other spot is more attractive? Im not saying we are the most attractive, only that Id like to hear someone details why we aren't as an attractive situation.

[X-Era]

Do you? I don't think he gets signed soon but I hope you are right.
As Ive said, I think Ralph's conversation with Fewell, and his promotion to interim, may constitute an interview.

I dont know how anyone can say we were never interested in a minority candidate when we just promoted him to interim HC, and probably told him that he is being considered for the permanent job. Thats an interview. If it isnt, what is? A face to face over dinner? that can be handled at any time if it hasnt already.

Id love to see the rules details... does it specifically require that it must happen after the season is over? That it cant be an over the phone interview? etc... My guess, yes its a guess, is that it doesnt... its purposely vague. And then the Bills simply need to show good faith that they gave a minority an opportunity for the job. And at that point, promoting Fewell, and telling him his performance will be evaluated to determine whether he can be our next HC consitutes an interview.

[Ed]

I don't think Shanny make any decision until the season is over and he knows what jobs are available. My guess is that his first choice would be Chicago if Lovie Smith gets fired. He grew up in Chicago and they already have his qb, Cutler.

[Mike in Syracuse]

Well we should know by Wednesday because no one in their right mind is traveling anywhere on Thursday or Friday this week.

[SABURZFAN]

i think Shanahan waits until the end of the season to see what other opportunities become available.

[X-Era]

I don't think Shanny make any decision until the season is over and he knows what jobs are available. My guess is that his first choice would be Chicago if Lovie Smith gets fired. He grew up in Chicago and they already have his qb, Cutler.

Chicago.

I didnt think of that one... damn.

They have shown they are willing to spend money... Urlacher and Briggs.
They have a better team than we do


But:

1) They have a GM- Jerry Angelo and Mike will want total control
2) They have a HC that took them to the SB not so long ago... will they think they need a change at HC?
3) Will they offer as much as we will? 10 mill is alot.

From Mikes mindset, the money that he would be turning down or taking the chance of losing our offer if he waits for all the ducks to lineup in Chicago... would he still turn us down (for now). It could work out that they never fire Smith, then Mike is left losing our deal potentially.

I think we play a bit of hardball and tell Mike that we will continue interviews if he leaves unsigned. At that point, Mike has to alos think about whether anyone else takes the deal and he loses our deal completely... He has to convince himself that Cowher and Holmgren will also want to wait... and will also turn down the money.

[Ed]

Chicago.

I didnt think of that one... damn.

They have shown they are willing to spend money... Urlacher and Briggs.
They have a better team than we do


But:

1) They have a GM- Jerry Angelo and Mike will want total control
2) They have a HC that took them to the SB not so long ago... will they think they need a change at HC?
3) Will they offer as much as we will? 10 mill is alot.

From Mikes mindset, the money that he would be turning down or taking the chance of losing our offer if he waits for all the ducks to lineup in Chicago... would he still turn us down (for now). It could work out that they never fire Smith, then Mike is left losing our deal potentially.

I think we play a bit of hardball and tell Mike that we will continue interviews if he leaves unsigned. At that point, Mike has to alos think about whether anyone else takes the deal and he loses our deal completely... He has to convince himself that Cowher and Holmgren will also want to wait... and will also turn down the money.
Well one thing working in our favor is that the Bears still owe Lovie a lot of money, so they may not want to get rid of him after this year even if the Bears underachieve. So having to pay Lovie a lot of money and make someone like Shanny one of the highest paid coaches in the league may not really be an option for them economically.

[X-Era]

On Chicago, this story talks to the points we brought up:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/chi-10-haugh-chicago-nov10,0,1996256.column

Owing both Angelo and Smith money for several more years will likely keep them from the mix.

Looking at their schedule, I cant see them going to anymore than 9 and 7.

[madness]

I will go out out a limb and say the Bills won't hire a new coach until the end of the season.

[trapezeus]

it's not that big of a limb with why you think he'll sign with us. but it's a big limb in the sense that these top name coaches are being covetted. they have some of the biggest NFL clubs (spending wise) willing to look at them. There is simply no way on earth that they don't wait til the end of the season to hear all offers.

Let's not forget how this offseason went before owens. people came in, took our large offer, and then went elsewhere. They leveraged their deal. Coaches will do the same thing. hopefully it works out for us, but with an uncapped year, and big clubs willing to spend as well, i think this is going to be really hard to get a proven name in here.

And if we settle with Billick just so we have a proven name, i'm going to cry for weeks.

[baalworship]

The biggest hurdle to making Buffalo attractive is Ralph Wilson's willingness to spend on FA. We often let some of our best players walk and we almost never sign anyone else. Our drafts our used to replace players we let walk.

If Ralph can convince Shanahan that he would spend up to the cap when necessary then everything else you said I would agree with.

[X-Era]

it's not that big of a limb with why you think he'll sign with us. but it's a big limb in the sense that these top name coaches are being covetted. they have some of the biggest NFL clubs (spending wise) willing to look at them. There is simply no way on earth that they don't wait til the end of the season to hear all offers.

Let's not forget how this offseason went before owens. people came in, took our large offer, and then went elsewhere. They leveraged their deal. Coaches will do the same thing. hopefully it works out for us, but with an uncapped year, and big clubs willing to spend as well, i think this is going to be really hard to get a proven name in here.

And if we settle with Billick just so we have a proven name, i'm going to cry for weeks.
There are a few reasons why I think its different:

1) These HC's know what they are signing up for now. They know Dan Snyder is staying, they know Al Davis, they know Jerry Jones. They know the QB's each team has in place. They know what all the teams have as far as talent. They are signing up to run the show, not to just play. Its one thing to be a player and to wait to play for the best team, or to take the most money. I can see that. Its another to have to be the leader, deal with the owners, deal with the QB's... do it all. The player doesnt need to be in control of anything other than himself. These guys need to be in charge of the whole football side. If the teams, owners, players on those teams, and situations were more unknown I would agree that they should wait and find out. They really arent that unknown. Or, if they thought they could get more money, than maybe. But it appears known, and the money here appears as good as you may get anywhere else. So then what do you need to wait for? Turn it down if you want some other job more, but I cant see a reason to wait to see what job are out there sinec you know what those likely jobs entail.

2) The HC's may be leaving money on the table. They may get a better offer, they may get the same offer from some other team. But they may not get everything they want (control, full use of money, a roster that they like or a right to rebuild the roster their way) and get the money which they might get here. We may be asking to do it now to get all of this, and a HC may take it rather than losing it to someone else.

BTW, Florio just said again that Shanny MUST wait until the end of the season due to the Rooney Rule. Yet Shefter said we will try to not let him leave... anyone else see one of these guys being clueless about the rules? Ill trust Shefter over Florio. Seems like a simple thing that some fact checking would fix for sure. Why would Shefter say the Bills arent letting Mike leave if he could do the homework and read that they must interview a minority at the end of the season?

I bet the rule only says you must interview a minority, NOT when. The Bills may be able to argue they already have.

[X-Era]

The biggest hurdle to making Buffalo attractive is Ralph Wilson's willingness to spend on FA. We often let some of our best players walk and we almost never sign anyone else. Our drafts our used to replace players we let walk.

If Ralph can convince Shanahan that he would spend up to the cap when necessary then everything else you said I would agree with.
I agree that that's what Russ and Ralph need to sell.

But I have to wonder why they would go this far if they know thats the case and weren't willing to give Shanny the control and money to spend to build his team. It doesn't make much sense unless the Bills FO is stupid (and they may be). Why do you throw such huge amounts of money at Mike and then tell him they wont let him go and get who he wants because they wont spend.

It just doesn't make much sense that they would court him or Cowher unless they were serious about give either of them the keys to the car and their check book.

[Ground Chuck]

The key is "total control".

Ralph might be the only one who will offer total control. That is what all the big names want. Oh along with moolah.

[X-Era]

The key is "total control".

Ralph might be the only one who will offer total control. That is what all the big names want. Oh along with moolah.

Thank you! :clap:

Snyder wont
Davis wont
Jones wont
AJ Smith wont
Jerry Angelo wont

Carolina, dont know
TB?
Cleveland?

[X-Era]

We need a damn answer to the Rooney Rule questions.

Heres what I sent to Mike Florio:

"Dear Mike Florio,

Several times in several days you have said that the Bills HAVE to wait until the offseason to sign someone due to the Rooney Rule. We need clarification on the rule. Many of us fans think that if Ralph interviewed Perry Fewell already or planned to, that the rule is satisfied and we are free to sign a new coach now. We may have contacted (interviewed) Dungy as well. So, I guess the questions about the Rooney Rule are: a) does the rule specify when it has to be done, b) does it specify what constitutes an interview?

Please help us crazy fans that are going nuts up here at the thought of Shanny or Cowher in Buffalo,

Thank you,

X-Era (I put my real name in obviously)"

[justasportsfan]

there you go Era. Fewell saying he can be a candidate if he chose to be means he wasn't interviewed?

[X-Era]

there you go Era. Fewell saying he can be a candidate if he chose to be means he wasn't interviewed?

Maybe.

Unless you could view the on the field audition as an interview... which I think one could argue.

Maybe what he meant was that he could be in the mix because they have told him they are interested in him, and may have already interviewed him... Maybe his comment is that he has already been interviewed and asked if hes interested, and he is simply pointing out that he still has the choice on whether he is interested or not.

[Mahdi]

I think Shanahan signs up this week.

The media will play the move off that we just threw a bunch of money at him and he took the money.

But heres what I think actually happens.

I think Shanahan takes the job because he knows hes competing with the rest of the big namers out there, he knows the Bills are making a serious offer, they will give him total control, and he knows that the supposedly "more attractive" jobs aren't as attractive as they look.

Im not so sure that Shanny wants to have to work with any GM, or any of these meddling owners. I think that puts SD (remember that AJ Smith basically ran Shotty out of town), Dall, Wash, and Oak right out of the mix right off the bat. BTW, I think the same applies to Cowher, Dungy, or Holmgren as well.

Thurm is on WGR and just said that very thing.

Thurm also brought up a good point and said that having a challenge with a young team and needs is something that some of these guys may like. They may not want established teams as much as they want to rebuild a squad... they like the challenge.

I think Mike is a smart guy, who will see our seriousness, see our offer, and he will realize that its a good (not great) situation, is offering a lot of money, really wants him to run it, and that the other likely spots arent going to be as good.

If Shanahan doesnt take it, I could really see Cowher taking it. The only thing that prevents Bill from taking it is geographical location. He supposedly wants to stay around where he is and where his roots are now. The Carolina job would win because of location only. The rest of the situation is very similar to Buffalo...but that also assumes that Carolina will offer as much money as we will. I think Bill just might take it.
Great points by Thurm and was what I was thinking exactly.

A lot of Big name coaches dont want to come into a situation where everything is set because it kinda reduces their impact on the success of the team.

He pretty much has an empty cupboard with a license to shop for whatever groceries he wants and whatever meal he wants to cook up.

That to me, along with 10 mil a season of course, is more enticing than say.... inheriting someone else's defense, someone else's offense and winning the SuperBowl with someone else's QB.

[justasportsfan]

Maybe.

Unless you could view the on the field audition as an interview... which I think one could argue.

Maybe what he meant was that he could be in the mix because they have told him they are interested in him, and may have already interviewed him... Maybe his comment is that he has already been interviewed and asked if hes interested, and he is simply pointing out that he still has the choice on whether he is interested or not.
nope. It has to be formally declared as an interview to meet the requirements. All Fewell is doing now is coaching to his current contract.

[X-Era]

nope. It has to be formally declared as an interview to meet the requirements. All Fewell is doing now is coaching to his current contract.
Link?

I'm not being a smart ass, Id love to find the details, Ive been looking and cant find them.

Besides, who's to say that Ralph didn't ask him about what direction he would take the team and then tell him that hes no getting his tryout.

Its all in the definition/rule.

[justasportsfan]

Link?

I'm not being a smart ass, Id love to find the details, Ive been looking and cant find them.

Besides, who's to say that Ralph didn't ask him about what direction he would take the team and then tell him that hes no getting his tryout.

Its all in the definition/rule.


I don't know the answers. I don't need a link. If anything you need the link stating Fewell was interviewed for the job or else I doubt Shanny will be our coach by the end of this week.

[kernowboy]

I think we must insist on a separate GM, an Eric DeCosta or David Gettleman ... a Head Coach seldom wears two hats comfortably.

my concern with Cowher is that he's always been surrounded by excellent co-ordinators - would such talent be affordable or available?

[X-Era]

I don't know the answers. I don't need a link. If anything you need the link stating Fewell was interviewed for the job or else I doubt Shanny will be our coach by the end of this week.

Perry has told us that Ralph called him and they talked before he was made interim HC. If that conversation included any discussion about Perry being considered a candidate, and Ralph then made him interim to "prove himself", he is still currently being "interviewed" and the rule has been satisfied.

Seriously, heres an interview:

Ralph- "Perry, if you take over the job as head coach, what direction would you take the team?"
Perry- "I would have them put on the pads and play tough every week"
Ralph- "OK, Im making you the interim HC"

Thats an interview in simple form. AND the Bills are actively "trying him out".

[justasportsfan]

Perry has told us that Ralph called him and they talked before he was made interim HC. If that conversation included any discussion about Perry being considered a candidate, and Ralph then made him interim to "prove himself", he is still currently being "interviewed" and the rule has been satisfied.

Seriously, heres an interview:

Ralph- "Perry, if you take over the job as head coach, what direction would you take the team?"
Perry- "I would have them put on the pads and play tough every week"
Ralph- "OK, Im making you the interim HC"

Thats an interview in simple form. AND the Bills are actively "trying him out".


I doubt next year was already discussed.

[X-Era]

I doubt next year was already discussed.
Look, all Im saying is this:

1) Shefter says the Bills will make it hard for Shanny to leave unsigned
2) No one has shown where the rule states that we cant sign anyone until after the season
3) If Shefters comments came from OBD, the Bills think they can sign him this week.

To me, unless Shefter is not doing his job, or more over, the Bills have no idea hat the rule is, the Bills think they can sign him this week.

Id love clarification because if the rule prevents them from signing someone this week, I dont need to be thinking there is any chance that we might see Mike Shanahan behind the podium at OBD.

[starrymessenger]

Lovie is on thin ice. He is also a bad fit for their franchise quarterback. Shanny isn't going anywhere before the end of the year.
I'm going out on a limb.
C. Casserly/ Marc Trestman. And you wouldn't regret it (even if you don't like it).

[X-Era]

Lovie is on thin ice. He is also a bad fit for their franchise quarterback. Shanny isn't going anywhere before the end of the year.
I'm going out on a limb.
C. Casserly/ Marc Trestman. And you wouldn't regret it (even if you don't like it).

I would not only regret it, I would hate it.

Either is going to get this team to play like a winner? You know that based on what?

[starrymessenger]

I don't know that anymore than you know Shanny is coming here. Out on a limb, remember?
Told you you wouldn't like it.

[X-Era]

I don't know that anymore than you know Shanny is coming here. Out on a limb, remember?
Told you you wouldn't like it.

I dont know that a move like that is very far out on a limb at all.

[starrymessenger]

Hmmmm...well I guess you've got me there.

[jpdex12]

That is quite a limb.....

You're telling me...more like John Holmes' limb!

[X-Era]

Its a out on a limb, I know.

I hope the Bills get smart and offer him whatever he likes... total control? yes. Ability to spend for free agents? yes.

And a fat check to sign.

[Michael82]

I'm just hoping the reports are true and he's coming to Buffalo later today. Maybe the fans can greet him at the airport like they did with TO. Either way, I think we can't let him go without a signed contract in hand.

If he leaves, It means that he doesn't want to be here and only considered it because of the money and/or total control offer on the table.