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Everyone loves to point out Tom Brady was a 6th round pick when makingthe case for waiting to draft a QB, but the fact is the odds of findinga franchise QB drop markedly after the first two rounds. For every TomBrady, there are dozens of Josh Huepels, Todd Husaks and Andy Halls,who were all also 6th round picks in the past 10 years.
There have been 88 QB's who have been drafted after the 2nd round inthe past 10 years before last year (Too soon to tell about last year yet) and among them only Brady has a Super Bowl Ring and is a lock tobe a future HOF QB. Schaub(3rd) and Bulger(6th Round the same year asBrady) are legit franchise QB's. Cassell(7th Round) may develop into one and he is certainly being paid as if he were. The next tier includes David Gerrard, Kyle Orton, and Derek Anderson. The rest include some of the league's worst starters including Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bruce Gradkowski.
So that's 1 HOF/Super Bowl Winner out of 88 picks in a 10 year span.There were another 2 or 3 legit franchise QB's and another 3 or 4 at best mediocre starters. Assuming you are shooting for a legit franchise QB, that gives you a 1 in 22 or a 4.5% chance of finding a franchise QB if you wait until after the 2nd round. If your actually hoping to find a HOF/Super Bowl Winner, your odds of repeating New England's success with Brady are 1.1%.
Now take a look at the QB's drafted in the first 2 rounds. While it's certainly no lock that you find a franchise QB, your odds are a hell of a lot better. There have been 39 QB's taken in the first two rounds between 1999 - 2008 and there are up to 14 franchise QB's in the group. That's a 36% success rate, still a risk but a lot better odds than a 4.5% chance. Eli Manning and Roethlesberger have won Super Bowls, Drew Brees is an MVP candidate this year, McNabb has gone to a Super Bowl and multiple Pro Bowls, Phillip Rivers is a franchise QB, Pennington had a solid career for the Jets, Carson Palmer has been solid when healthy, Aaron Rogers is a franchise QB, Jay Cutler is a franchise QB, Flacco, Ryan, Henne, Young and Kolb have all shown promise:
It is a myth that you can find "value" at QB later in the draft. It just doesn't happen. Of the 32 current starters in the league 18 were 1st round picks. All but Cutler are still with the team that drafted them. Some are better than others obviously and some may end up being replaced soon (Probably with another 1st round pick), but the fact is most of the league's starting QBs came by way of a first round pick.
There are a total of (3) 2nd rounders currently starting and only Chad Henne is starting for the team that drafted him.
After the 3rd round, there are only 4 starters in the league playing for the team that selected or acquired them originally. The last QB to rise to the level of starter for a team that drafted them on the 2ndday or signed them as a rookie free agent was Tony Romo in 2003. There have been no QBs selected in rounds 3 -7 in the last 6 drafts currently starting for the team that drafted them...........
There have been 88 QB's who have been drafted after the 2nd round inthe past 10 years before last year (Too soon to tell about last year yet) and among them only Brady has a Super Bowl Ring and is a lock tobe a future HOF QB. Schaub(3rd) and Bulger(6th Round the same year asBrady) are legit franchise QB's. Cassell(7th Round) may develop into one and he is certainly being paid as if he were. The next tier includes David Gerrard, Kyle Orton, and Derek Anderson. The rest include some of the league's worst starters including Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bruce Gradkowski.
So that's 1 HOF/Super Bowl Winner out of 88 picks in a 10 year span.There were another 2 or 3 legit franchise QB's and another 3 or 4 at best mediocre starters. Assuming you are shooting for a legit franchise QB, that gives you a 1 in 22 or a 4.5% chance of finding a franchise QB if you wait until after the 2nd round. If your actually hoping to find a HOF/Super Bowl Winner, your odds of repeating New England's success with Brady are 1.1%.
Now take a look at the QB's drafted in the first 2 rounds. While it's certainly no lock that you find a franchise QB, your odds are a hell of a lot better. There have been 39 QB's taken in the first two rounds between 1999 - 2008 and there are up to 14 franchise QB's in the group. That's a 36% success rate, still a risk but a lot better odds than a 4.5% chance. Eli Manning and Roethlesberger have won Super Bowls, Drew Brees is an MVP candidate this year, McNabb has gone to a Super Bowl and multiple Pro Bowls, Phillip Rivers is a franchise QB, Pennington had a solid career for the Jets, Carson Palmer has been solid when healthy, Aaron Rogers is a franchise QB, Jay Cutler is a franchise QB, Flacco, Ryan, Henne, Young and Kolb have all shown promise:
It is a myth that you can find "value" at QB later in the draft. It just doesn't happen. Of the 32 current starters in the league 18 were 1st round picks. All but Cutler are still with the team that drafted them. Some are better than others obviously and some may end up being replaced soon (Probably with another 1st round pick), but the fact is most of the league's starting QBs came by way of a first round pick.
There are a total of (3) 2nd rounders currently starting and only Chad Henne is starting for the team that drafted him.
After the 3rd round, there are only 4 starters in the league playing for the team that selected or acquired them originally. The last QB to rise to the level of starter for a team that drafted them on the 2ndday or signed them as a rookie free agent was Tony Romo in 2003. There have been no QBs selected in rounds 3 -7 in the last 6 drafts currently starting for the team that drafted them...........
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