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Well the season is over and I figure I might as well review where the team is missing talent. To augment this review I spent a little time on Football Outsiders because they keep track of a number of highly useful statistics (no i am not affiliated in any way, i just found them a month ago and found it very helpful for performing a little independent analysis to back up or confirm my observation); and use a very interesting metric which normalizes stats for the quality of opposition faced... now you can take that with a grain of salt because many football stats are mostly team affairs not individual accomplishments, however to answer your questions beforehand, yes, when I quote a rating for a position or player that was the primary source, and all ratings are normalized for the strength of opposition and the quality of support from his own team.
The Buffalo Bills entered the 2009 season in flux. They had a deeply unpopular head coach returning for the 4rd year (who should have been fired after year 3) a young and frankly undermanned offensive line, and a linebacker corps which, judging by preseason was looking to be even worse then the previous year's unit. Into this mix the bills fired their OC before the last week of the preseason, cut their starting LT and wandered into Foxborough facing the Tom Brady Patriots with Brady returning for the first time in a year.
Well Poz would break his arm, the pats would catch fire and McKelvin would fumble leading to a massive patriot's comeback, and the bills would never regain their footing the rest of the season.
What follows will be a position by position breakdown, and a grade. I will also address team needs at the end of the breakdown.
Quarterback
The Bills quarterbacks were a disaster this year. No matter what way you judge them, no matter what stats you use they were dismal. Part of the problem was clearly the offensive line play (more on that later) but even normalizing for the line and running game our QBs were surprisingly identical in their futility. According to the metrics at football insider they ranked 32nd (Edwards) and 33rd (Fitzpatrick) in the league.
Position Grade: F
Team Need:
Running Back
The Bills entered this season confident in their RB position, even though Lynch would start the year with a 3 game suspension they were reasonably confident they'd get solid play from Fred Jackson. They got that and more. With debatable help from the o-line (more on this later) and little imagination from the OC, the bills somehow managed to turn out to be a fairly decent rushing team.
Statistically speaking, the Bills running backs were not that impressive, though Fred Jackson did break 1000 yards on the ground. Lynch had a dismal year, and our short yardage offense was horrendous. When normalized for the strength of the line (more on this later) and the strength of the opposition, a strange fact emerges. The Bills running back situation is not good at all. While Bills fans are generally happy with Fred Jackson, he's in reality little better then a highly skilled third down back, clocking in at 22nd overall (he was the 5th rated receiving running back though). Lynch was far worse measuring in at 45th in the league. This brings us to an interesting conclusion; this position was weaker then we thought heading into the season, and probably weaker then we still think.
Position Grade: C
Team Need:
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Heading into the season we thought this was a possible strength for the football team. Terrell Owens was supposed to open things up in the passing game. Yet in the end, new OC, the poor pass blocking, terrible QB play, and nonthreatening rushing attack conspired to create a miserable year for both of these WRs. Yet those excuses only go so far, even when normalizing for those things, as football outsiders tries to do our WR corps looks horrendous. Lee Evans ranks just 63rd and Owens comes in at 70th. The Bills received no significant contribution from any other WR; though Josh Reed would have rated 54th had he caught a few more passes.
At Tight End Shawn Nelson a 4th round rookie was able to contribute a bit, though he only rated 55th out of the TEs in the league.
Position Grade: D-
Team Need (WR):
Team Need (TE):
Offensive Line
Entering the season this was the one position we knew was going to be awful. In some ways that's exactly what it was, with a normalized pass blocking rank of 32nd it was the worst pass blocking line in the league. Yet surprisingly, the offensive line by every objective stat turned out to be a fairly competent run blocking unit. A far better run blocking unit then our Running-backs can explain. When normalized for the defenses we faced, and our running back play, the Bills offensive line was ranked 12th in rush blocking. Some glaring weaknesses were shown in those numbers as our RT was disastrously bad in run blocking, while predictably the inside of the line was stout. This largely met with what I saw when I watched them on Sunday. In short, our Running-backs underachieved with the run blocking they were getting from the line. The lone conclusion I'm left with is if we could repair the Tackle position the line could be pretty damned good
Position Grade: C-
Team Need (OT):
Team Need (G):
Team Need (C):
Defensive Line
The defensive line has been (rightfully) maligned in Buffalo for years, yet I noticed a change in the lines play heading into the year (even if the personnel has been basically the same). They were holding the point of attack better and showing better gap control then at any time I could remember in recent years. What truly alarmed me was how bad the linebackers looked when the line did a fair job for a change. The stats partly back up that early season observation, and in the end the Defensive line, for a change was not the biggest problem on the field. Some normalized stats for the d-line, the front 4 ranked about 21st in the league against the run (the LBers and DBs ranked 29th), and our pass rush from the front 4 ranked 10th in the league when normalized as well. Across the line, Schobel was actually the 9th best run stopping RE in the league (when normalized for yards, rushing attempts, ect...), while Kyle Williams was the 11th best run stopping RDT, Stroud at LDT was the biggest liability on the line rating 29th, while the dynamic duo of Kelsay/Denney turned in a mediocre 27th rating on the LE
Position Grade: C+
Team Need (LE):
Team Need (LDT):
Team Need (RDT):
*Team Need (RE):
*depends on Schobel NOT retiring.
Linebackers
I actually felt reasonably happy with 2 of our 3 linebackers heading into the season, but on seeing the corps in the preseason I rapidly realized my faith was misplaced and knew we were in trouble. Sadly I was right. Injuries devastated what was already a weakness on this team. Poz had a poor year, though I will give him a partial pass for trying to play MLB with a broken arm wrapped heavily in a cast for part of the season. His play did pick up greatly at the end of the year, perhaps giving us a glimpse of what we thought we were drafting, to the point where he seemed to be making big plays all over the field in the last quarter of the season. The rest of the corps was pretty much a joke from top to bottom. The rushing defense stats bare out what I was seeing. No gap discipline, poor tackling and inability to get off blocks resulted in this unit destroying what I thought was a fairly good effort from the Dline all year.
Position Grade: F
Team Need (LOLB):
Team Need (MLB):
Team Need (ROLB):
Defensive Backs
I was torn heading into this season, I thought safety was a strength, or at least not a weakness on this team, and CB was a borderline weakness beyond McKelvin. Yet that's not how it played out at all. The Bills defensive backs turned out to be the strongest position on the team outside of punter. We were in the top 10 in normalized pass defense against every position on the field (RB, TE, WR1, WR3) except for the 2nd WR, yet even there we were just rated 12th. Florence was rated in the top 4 in the league vs. other teams number 1 WR, ahead of even DMVP Woodson, Byrd lead the league in INTs, our pass defense rated 4th overall when normalized for our opposition; throw in the normalized 10th rated pass rush and all the INTs we had makes plenty of sense. This is a unit that only gets stronger when McKelvin comes back. Overall, there is a lot to love here, except their run defense.
Position Grade: A
Team Need (RCB):
Team Need (SS):
Team Need (FS):
Team Need (LCB):
Special Teams
The Bills special teams slipped this year, falling from its perennial top 3 finish down to 12th in the league, primarily due to the return game becoming generally abysmal. Liddell, thanks to his 85% FG percentage now holds 4 of the best 5 seasons in Bills kicking history; Moorman finished the year with an astronomically high 90 punts... and somehow managed to get a 40+ yard net average, (not to mention a perfect QBR) The return game actually lost us 2 football games this year, and generally did a poor job getting us good field position.
Position Grade: B
Team Need (P):
Team Need (K):
Team Need (K/PR):
Summation of Team Needs
QB:
OT:
OLB:
LDT:
-
LDE:
WR:
K/PR:
-
TE:
RB:
-
SS:
MLB:
RDT:
The Buffalo Bills entered the 2009 season in flux. They had a deeply unpopular head coach returning for the 4rd year (who should have been fired after year 3) a young and frankly undermanned offensive line, and a linebacker corps which, judging by preseason was looking to be even worse then the previous year's unit. Into this mix the bills fired their OC before the last week of the preseason, cut their starting LT and wandered into Foxborough facing the Tom Brady Patriots with Brady returning for the first time in a year.
Well Poz would break his arm, the pats would catch fire and McKelvin would fumble leading to a massive patriot's comeback, and the bills would never regain their footing the rest of the season.
What follows will be a position by position breakdown, and a grade. I will also address team needs at the end of the breakdown.
Quarterback
The Bills quarterbacks were a disaster this year. No matter what way you judge them, no matter what stats you use they were dismal. Part of the problem was clearly the offensive line play (more on that later) but even normalizing for the line and running game our QBs were surprisingly identical in their futility. According to the metrics at football insider they ranked 32nd (Edwards) and 33rd (Fitzpatrick) in the league.
Position Grade: F
Team Need:
Running Back
The Bills entered this season confident in their RB position, even though Lynch would start the year with a 3 game suspension they were reasonably confident they'd get solid play from Fred Jackson. They got that and more. With debatable help from the o-line (more on this later) and little imagination from the OC, the bills somehow managed to turn out to be a fairly decent rushing team.
Statistically speaking, the Bills running backs were not that impressive, though Fred Jackson did break 1000 yards on the ground. Lynch had a dismal year, and our short yardage offense was horrendous. When normalized for the strength of the line (more on this later) and the strength of the opposition, a strange fact emerges. The Bills running back situation is not good at all. While Bills fans are generally happy with Fred Jackson, he's in reality little better then a highly skilled third down back, clocking in at 22nd overall (he was the 5th rated receiving running back though). Lynch was far worse measuring in at 45th in the league. This brings us to an interesting conclusion; this position was weaker then we thought heading into the season, and probably weaker then we still think.
Position Grade: C
Team Need:
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Heading into the season we thought this was a possible strength for the football team. Terrell Owens was supposed to open things up in the passing game. Yet in the end, new OC, the poor pass blocking, terrible QB play, and nonthreatening rushing attack conspired to create a miserable year for both of these WRs. Yet those excuses only go so far, even when normalizing for those things, as football outsiders tries to do our WR corps looks horrendous. Lee Evans ranks just 63rd and Owens comes in at 70th. The Bills received no significant contribution from any other WR; though Josh Reed would have rated 54th had he caught a few more passes.
At Tight End Shawn Nelson a 4th round rookie was able to contribute a bit, though he only rated 55th out of the TEs in the league.
Position Grade: D-
Team Need (WR):
Team Need (TE):
Offensive Line
Entering the season this was the one position we knew was going to be awful. In some ways that's exactly what it was, with a normalized pass blocking rank of 32nd it was the worst pass blocking line in the league. Yet surprisingly, the offensive line by every objective stat turned out to be a fairly competent run blocking unit. A far better run blocking unit then our Running-backs can explain. When normalized for the defenses we faced, and our running back play, the Bills offensive line was ranked 12th in rush blocking. Some glaring weaknesses were shown in those numbers as our RT was disastrously bad in run blocking, while predictably the inside of the line was stout. This largely met with what I saw when I watched them on Sunday. In short, our Running-backs underachieved with the run blocking they were getting from the line. The lone conclusion I'm left with is if we could repair the Tackle position the line could be pretty damned good
Position Grade: C-
Team Need (OT):
Team Need (G):
Team Need (C):
Defensive Line
The defensive line has been (rightfully) maligned in Buffalo for years, yet I noticed a change in the lines play heading into the year (even if the personnel has been basically the same). They were holding the point of attack better and showing better gap control then at any time I could remember in recent years. What truly alarmed me was how bad the linebackers looked when the line did a fair job for a change. The stats partly back up that early season observation, and in the end the Defensive line, for a change was not the biggest problem on the field. Some normalized stats for the d-line, the front 4 ranked about 21st in the league against the run (the LBers and DBs ranked 29th), and our pass rush from the front 4 ranked 10th in the league when normalized as well. Across the line, Schobel was actually the 9th best run stopping RE in the league (when normalized for yards, rushing attempts, ect...), while Kyle Williams was the 11th best run stopping RDT, Stroud at LDT was the biggest liability on the line rating 29th, while the dynamic duo of Kelsay/Denney turned in a mediocre 27th rating on the LE
Position Grade: C+
Team Need (LE):
Team Need (LDT):
Team Need (RDT):
*Team Need (RE):
*depends on Schobel NOT retiring.
Linebackers
I actually felt reasonably happy with 2 of our 3 linebackers heading into the season, but on seeing the corps in the preseason I rapidly realized my faith was misplaced and knew we were in trouble. Sadly I was right. Injuries devastated what was already a weakness on this team. Poz had a poor year, though I will give him a partial pass for trying to play MLB with a broken arm wrapped heavily in a cast for part of the season. His play did pick up greatly at the end of the year, perhaps giving us a glimpse of what we thought we were drafting, to the point where he seemed to be making big plays all over the field in the last quarter of the season. The rest of the corps was pretty much a joke from top to bottom. The rushing defense stats bare out what I was seeing. No gap discipline, poor tackling and inability to get off blocks resulted in this unit destroying what I thought was a fairly good effort from the Dline all year.
Position Grade: F
Team Need (LOLB):
Team Need (MLB):
Team Need (ROLB):
Defensive Backs
I was torn heading into this season, I thought safety was a strength, or at least not a weakness on this team, and CB was a borderline weakness beyond McKelvin. Yet that's not how it played out at all. The Bills defensive backs turned out to be the strongest position on the team outside of punter. We were in the top 10 in normalized pass defense against every position on the field (RB, TE, WR1, WR3) except for the 2nd WR, yet even there we were just rated 12th. Florence was rated in the top 4 in the league vs. other teams number 1 WR, ahead of even DMVP Woodson, Byrd lead the league in INTs, our pass defense rated 4th overall when normalized for our opposition; throw in the normalized 10th rated pass rush and all the INTs we had makes plenty of sense. This is a unit that only gets stronger when McKelvin comes back. Overall, there is a lot to love here, except their run defense.
Position Grade: A
Team Need (RCB):
Team Need (SS):
Team Need (FS):
Team Need (LCB):
Special Teams
The Bills special teams slipped this year, falling from its perennial top 3 finish down to 12th in the league, primarily due to the return game becoming generally abysmal. Liddell, thanks to his 85% FG percentage now holds 4 of the best 5 seasons in Bills kicking history; Moorman finished the year with an astronomically high 90 punts... and somehow managed to get a 40+ yard net average, (not to mention a perfect QBR) The return game actually lost us 2 football games this year, and generally did a poor job getting us good field position.
Position Grade: B
Team Need (P):
Team Need (K):
Team Need (K/PR):
Summation of Team Needs
QB:
OT:
OLB:
LDT:
-
LDE:
WR:
K/PR:
-
TE:
RB:
-
SS:
MLB:
RDT:
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