Ingtar33's 2009 - Bills Postseason Positional Review

[Ingtar33]

Well the season is over and I figure I might as well review where the team is missing talent. To augment this review I spent a little time on Football Outsiders (http://footballoutsiders.com/) because they keep track of a number of highly useful statistics (no i am not affiliated in any way, i just found them a month ago and found it very helpful for performing a little independent analysis to back up or confirm my observation); and use a very interesting metric which normalizes stats for the quality of opposition faced... now you can take that with a grain of salt because many football stats are mostly team affairs not individual accomplishments, however to answer your questions beforehand, yes, when I quote a rating for a position or player that was the primary source, and all ratings are normalized for the strength of opposition and the quality of support from his own team.



The Buffalo Bills entered the 2009 season in flux. They had a deeply unpopular head coach returning for the 4rd year (who should have been fired after year 3) a young and frankly undermanned offensive line, and a linebacker corps which, judging by preseason was looking to be even worse then the previous year's unit. Into this mix the bills fired their OC before the last week of the preseason, cut their starting LT and wandered into Foxborough facing the Tom Brady Patriots with Brady returning for the first time in a year.

Well Poz would break his arm, the pats would catch fire and McKelvin would fumble leading to a massive patriot's comeback, and the bills would never regain their footing the rest of the season.

What follows will be a position by position breakdown, and a grade. I will also address team needs at the end of the breakdown.

Quarterback

The Bills quarterbacks were a disaster this year. No matter what way you judge them, no matter what stats you use they were dismal. Part of the problem was clearly the offensive line play (more on that later) but even normalizing for the line and running game our QBs were surprisingly identical in their futility. According to the metrics at football insider they ranked 32nd (Edwards) and 33rd (Fitzpatrick) in the league.

Position Grade: F
Team Need: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:


Running Back

The Bills entered this season confident in their RB position, even though Lynch would start the year with a 3 game suspension they were reasonably confident they'd get solid play from Fred Jackson. They got that and more. With debatable help from the o-line (more on this later) and little imagination from the OC, the bills somehow managed to turn out to be a fairly decent rushing team.

Statistically speaking, the Bills running backs were not that impressive, though Fred Jackson did break 1000 yards on the ground. Lynch had a dismal year, and our short yardage offense was horrendous. When normalized for the strength of the line (more on this later) and the strength of the opposition, a strange fact emerges. The Bills running back situation is not good at all. While Bills fans are generally happy with Fred Jackson, he's in reality little better then a highly skilled third down back, clocking in at 22nd overall (he was the 5th rated receiving running back though). Lynch was far worse measuring in at 45th in the league. This brings us to an interesting conclusion; this position was weaker then we thought heading into the season, and probably weaker then we still think.

Position Grade: C
Team Need: :star: :star: :star:

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Heading into the season we thought this was a possible strength for the football team. Terrell Owens was supposed to open things up in the passing game. Yet in the end, new OC, the poor pass blocking, terrible QB play, and nonthreatening rushing attack conspired to create a miserable year for both of these WRs. Yet those excuses only go so far, even when normalizing for those things, as football outsiders tries to do our WR corps looks horrendous. Lee Evans ranks just 63rd and Owens comes in at 70th. The Bills received no significant contribution from any other WR; though Josh Reed would have rated 54th had he caught a few more passes.

At Tight End Shawn Nelson a 4th round rookie was able to contribute a bit, though he only rated 55th out of the TEs in the league.

Position Grade: D-
Team Need (WR): :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (TE): :star: :star: :star:


Offensive Line

Entering the season this was the one position we knew was going to be awful. In some ways that's exactly what it was, with a normalized pass blocking rank of 32nd it was the worst pass blocking line in the league. Yet surprisingly, the offensive line by every objective stat turned out to be a fairly competent run blocking unit. A far better run blocking unit then our Running-backs can explain. When normalized for the defenses we faced, and our running back play, the Bills offensive line was ranked 12th in rush blocking. Some glaring weaknesses were shown in those numbers as our RT was disastrously bad in run blocking, while predictably the inside of the line was stout. This largely met with what I saw when I watched them on Sunday. In short, our Running-backs underachieved with the run blocking they were getting from the line. The lone conclusion I'm left with is if we could repair the Tackle position the line could be pretty damned good

Position Grade: C-
Team Need (OT): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (G): :star:
Team Need (C): :star:


Defensive Line

The defensive line has been (rightfully) maligned in Buffalo for years, yet I noticed a change in the lines play heading into the year (even if the personnel has been basically the same). They were holding the point of attack better and showing better gap control then at any time I could remember in recent years. What truly alarmed me was how bad the linebackers looked when the line did a fair job for a change. The stats partly back up that early season observation, and in the end the Defensive line, for a change was not the biggest problem on the field. Some normalized stats for the d-line, the front 4 ranked about 21st in the league against the run (the LBers and DBs ranked 29th), and our pass rush from the front 4 ranked 10th in the league when normalized as well. Across the line, Schobel was actually the 9th best run stopping RE in the league (when normalized for yards, rushing attempts, ect...), while Kyle Williams was the 11th best run stopping RDT, Stroud at LDT was the biggest liability on the line rating 29th, while the dynamic duo of Kelsay/Denney turned in a mediocre 27th rating on the LE

Position Grade: C+
Team Need (LE): :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (LDT): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (RDT): :star: :star:
*Team Need (RE): :star:

*depends on Schobel NOT retiring.


Linebackers

I actually felt reasonably happy with 2 of our 3 linebackers heading into the season, but on seeing the corps in the preseason I rapidly realized my faith was misplaced and knew we were in trouble. Sadly I was right. Injuries devastated what was already a weakness on this team. Poz had a poor year, though I will give him a partial pass for trying to play MLB with a broken arm wrapped heavily in a cast for part of the season. His play did pick up greatly at the end of the year, perhaps giving us a glimpse of what we thought we were drafting, to the point where he seemed to be making big plays all over the field in the last quarter of the season. The rest of the corps was pretty much a joke from top to bottom. The rushing defense stats bare out what I was seeing. No gap discipline, poor tackling and inability to get off blocks resulted in this unit destroying what I thought was a fairly good effort from the Dline all year.

Position Grade: F
Team Need (LOLB): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (MLB): :star: :star:
Team Need (ROLB): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:

Defensive Backs

I was torn heading into this season, I thought safety was a strength, or at least not a weakness on this team, and CB was a borderline weakness beyond McKelvin. Yet that's not how it played out at all. The Bills defensive backs turned out to be the strongest position on the team outside of punter. We were in the top 10 in normalized pass defense against every position on the field (RB, TE, WR1, WR3) except for the 2nd WR, yet even there we were just rated 12th. Florence was rated in the top 4 in the league vs. other teams number 1 WR, ahead of even DMVP Woodson, Byrd lead the league in INTs, our pass defense rated 4th overall when normalized for our opposition; throw in the normalized 10th rated pass rush and all the INTs we had makes plenty of sense. This is a unit that only gets stronger when McKelvin comes back. Overall, there is a lot to love here, except their run defense.

Position Grade: A
Team Need (RCB): :star:
Team Need (SS): :star: :star:
Team Need (FS): :star:
Team Need (LCB): :star:


Special Teams

The Bills special teams slipped this year, falling from its perennial top 3 finish down to 12th in the league, primarily due to the return game becoming generally abysmal. Liddell, thanks to his 85% FG percentage now holds 4 of the best 5 seasons in Bills kicking history; Moorman finished the year with an astronomically high 90 punts... and somehow managed to get a 40+ yard net average, (not to mention a perfect QBR) The return game actually lost us 2 football games this year, and generally did a poor job getting us good field position.

Position Grade: B
Team Need (P): :star:
Team Need (K): :star:
Team Need (K/PR): :star: :star: :star: :star:




Summation of Team Needs
QB: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
OT: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
OLB: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
LDT: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
-
LDE: :star: :star: :star: :star:
WR: :star: :star: :star: :star:
K/PR: :star: :star: :star: :star:
-
TE: :star: :star: :star:
RB: :star: :star: :star:
-
SS: :star: :star:
MLB: :star: :star:
RDT: :star: :star:

[Novacane]

Lot of 5 and 4 star needs. We're not gonna be good for a while :sadwalk:

[Bruce is Loose]

If we can have noone regress, have our top 4 rounds' picks all pan out immediately, aquire 2 or 3 players who all pan out, and have one of those players be a QB - then we could be a playoff team next year....
Obviously wed need a coach too. This is where we have to pray that ridiculous odds are met with some blind luck for once.

[DraftBoy]

Great write up and I agree about our need at both WR and RB which many fans seem to be dimissing.

[k-oneputt]

Great write up and I agree about our need at both WR and RB which many fans seem to be dimissing.

I guess you missed the qb, ot, lb, dl needed before the wr and rb ?

[DraftBoy]

I guess you missed the qb, ot, lb, dl needed before the wr and rb ?

As always your reading comprehension skills are top notch! :up:

[Canadian'eh!]

Technically in your summation of needs we shouldhave OLB listed TWICE with 5 stars.

[Canadian'eh!]

The good news is if we go 8/8 (assuming we HAVE 8 draft picks) in this draft we'll be getting close!

Since you know, we dont' sign free agents.

[k-oneputt]

As always your reading comprehension skills are top notch! :up:

Yeah we can use a rb if Lynch goes or a wr after the other four positions are taken care of.
Thankfully I am confident that Nix is to smart to use #9 on a wr.

[Saratoga Slim]

Great review. To add a little optimism here, I don't think we need improvement at every position of need in order to improve our record. Nobody has a perfect roster.

As Ingtar noted, the kick return game more or less cost us two wins. Improve decisionmaking at that position alone--possibly even with players on our roster--and we're 8-8. Moreover, apart from a boneheaded decision or two, McKelvin is a great KR. Having him out for most of the season definately affected our field position.

I think if we got stable QB play, fixed the OT position (new LT, and either a new RT or a healthy Butler), kept Schobel from retiring, got Kawika Mitchell back healthy (he's not great, but he's better than the dudes we replaced him with) and significantly upgraded the other OLB position, we could be a much more competitive team.

To make it from competitive to dangerous, we'd then need the upgrades at WR, RB, DL, etc.

Just my opinion.

[Mahdi]

We do have a lot of needs but I dont think it is far fetched to fill those needs in 1 off-season with 1 or 2 big FAs, a couple of mid-range guys and the draft.

I also think that the fact that we have no good 4-3 OLBs makes it even easier to transition to the 3-4 that Buddy would most likely implement.

[Mahdi]

Great write up and I agree about our need at both WR and RB which many fans seem to be dimissing.
I think the WR need is obvious, but I also think that a game breaker at RB would help this team win a few more games. Convert a few of our typical 4-5 yard runs into 10-15 yarders and our 10-15 yarders to 30-40 yarders and we can score more points. Especially since we don't have an established QB.

Dexter McCluster could be an option later in the draft. Spiller's value was increased big time by Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

[k-oneputt]

Spiller is going in the 1st rd. so unless you are ready to use #9 on him that is not happening.

[Mahdi]

Spiller is going in the 1st rd. so unless you are ready to use #9 on him that is not happening.
Not necessarily saying we should take him at 9. Just saying his value will be high. We do need to add a game-breaker at RB though.

I think Sproles is a RFA. That could be an option.

[k-oneputt]

Can always find a rb. I wouldn't use a pick on one until the later rds.

What they really need is for the new coach to get through the thick skull of Lynch and get him straightened out. He also needs to drop some weight imo.

[ddaryl]

until the OL is fixed, gelled and working I fail to see how the RB position could possibly get better... and we are not going to find this game breaker in rounds 3 or 4 either

I know this team cannot afford to be drafting no 1st or 2nd rd RB with the much larger holes we have on this team...

We need to fix the OL and DL and get that house in order before this team makes any real move forward

[Mahdi]

Can always find a rb. I wouldn't use a pick on one until the later rds.

What they really need is for the new coach to get through the thick skull of Lynch and get him straightened out. He also needs to drop some weight imo.
Lynch definitely needs to lose weight. He is not the same player he was in college.

[Ingtar33]

until the OL is fixed, gelled and working I fail to see how the RB position could possibly get better... and we are not going to find this game breaker in rounds 3 or 4 either

I know this team cannot afford to be drafting no 1st or 2nd rd RB with the much larger holes we have on this team...

We need to fix the OL and DL and get that house in order before this team makes any real move forward


Well that was part of why i thought their metrics were so interesting. according to the numbers, our line was the 12th best line, jackson was the 22nd best RB (lynch was the 45th) and our total running game (line + rb) was 18th.

In short, the RBs were mostly not exploiting the blocking the line was giving them. I think Jackson was exploiting the blocking fine, the problem is Jackson is not particularly fast. He couldn't stretch a 5 yard gain into a 10. and he couldn't exploit a 10 yard gain by turning it into a 20. As a result he'd get into the 2nd level and get swarmed by the chasing players because he simply wasnt' fast enough to do more...

I like fred jackson, i love what he brings to the team. But we have to face the facts, that he's not a great RB. He's a great backup RB and elite 3rd down back. but as a starting RB he's mediocre.

->setting that aside

Yes. We need OT desperately. i'd argue RT is almost as big a need as LT, but the guys we cycled into LT generally were pretty good Run blockers, so if butler can't get it done we do have some solid... well run blocking at least... tackles on the team.

But LT is a desperate need. and i think if the top 2 QBs are off the board at 9 you absolutely have to go LT (the only way i'd be cool going anywhere else is if a can't miss OLB or DT is still sitting there... but that is it.)

[imbondz]

chemistry is the missing link. if we can get a solid coaching staff around this team, find a decent QB, we could turn it around within a year. I love our WRs and think Jackson could be a star.

[ddaryl]

Well that was part of why i thought their metrics were so interesting. according to the numbers, our line was the 12th best line, jackson was the 22nd best RB (lynch was the 45th) and our total running game (line + rb) was 18th.

In short, the RBs were mostly not exploiting the blocking the line was giving them. I think Jackson was exploiting the blocking fine, the problem is Jackson is not particularly fast. He couldn't stretch a 5 yard gain into a 10. and he couldn't exploit a 10 yard gain by turning it into a 20. As a result he'd get into the 2nd level and get swarmed by the chasing players because he simply wasnt' fast enough to do more...



That is quite interesting... Where did you find the OL information, stats rankings at ????

I still can't fnd away for us to justify going after another RB, and because this team has recently drafted ML and has given freddie a nice raise I am willing to go out on a limb and say the RB posiiton will not be touched this year. The only way that does happen is trading Lynch but even then I pretty much would say 0% chance at any 1st day RB being drafted...

We have to fix the front 7 on D and OL/QB positions 1st and foremost IMO.

[ddaryl]

Lynch definitely needs to lose weight. He is not the same player he was in college.

He was good his 1st 2 years, but the weight he put on this offseason was a head scratcher....

the other fact is Lynch's offseason problems are taking a toll on his ability to put it all on the filed IMO

[Mr. Pink]

Well done Ingtar, a little more generous than I would have been but it is nice to see that someone else agrees that our WR situation is borderline terrible and our RB situation isn't anything better than middle of the pack.

[trapezeus]

good write up... rating wise, i found it interesting that you could give the QBs an F, the RB's a C- and the WR's a D-, refer to the OL for all three as part of the reason why they were bad, and then rate the OL as a C.

obviously it's subjective, but if the OL has to do with the poor play at the other areas to some weighted degree, they should probably have an F as well.

I realize you probably feel that rating them an F takes away from Levitre and Wood's potential. But i don't. Individually on the OL, we have two to 4 decent players if healthy for 16-19 games in a season. As a unit though, in my mind, they were a solid F. not like a 61 F but like a 32 kind of F.

[malo]

A little generous with the OL grade...

[Cntrygal]

Great writeup! :up:

[chernobylwraiths]

You mention abysmal offensive line play, then go on to say that our running game is the fault of the running backs. I saw plenty of plays where Jackson got yards after the first hit. I don't think we have grade A backs, but I think they are at least B, or at least Jackson is.

I just can't get over how you gave the offensive line a C.

[Throne Logic]

I think the WR need is obvious, but I also think that a game breaker at RB would help this team win a few more games. Convert a few of our typical 4-5 yard runs into 10-15 yarders and our 10-15 yarders to 30-40 yarders and we can score more points. Especially since we don't have an established QB.

Dexter McCluster could be an option later in the draft. Spiller's value was increased big time by Chris Johnson and Ray Rice.

Despite the "normalized " metrics, I still believe Jackson can be a game changer. If anyone respected our QB play and our OL was more consistent. . . Most importantly, how can any metric account for the importance of a consistent rhythm on offense for our RB play?

[Mahdi]

Despite the "normalized " metrics, I still believe Jackson can be a game changer. If anyone respected our QB play and our OL was more consistent. . . Most importantly, how can any metric account for the importance of a consistent rhythm on offense for our RB play?
I don't think we need metrics to know that Jackson is not a home-run hitter. He is a slasher with some power and good instincts and great hands.

[shelby]

Great review, thanks!

[Thief]

Very nice write up. I do have one thing to mention though. Fred Jackson was near the top of the league in yards per rush AFTER contact. 4.5 yards per carry is pretty darn good when taking this into consideration. He is a straight up stud.

If anyone can find a link to stats like these it would be appreciated.

[Ingtar33]

good write up... rating wise, i found it interesting that you could give the QBs an F, the RB's a C- and the WR's a D-, refer to the OL for all three as part of the reason why they were bad, and then rate the OL as a C.

obviously it's subjective, but if the OL has to do with the poor play at the other areas to some weighted degree, they should probably have an F as well.

I realize you probably feel that rating them an F takes away from Levitre and Wood's potential. But i don't. Individually on the OL, we have two to 4 decent players if healthy for 16-19 games in a season. As a unit though, in my mind, they were a solid F. not like a 61 F but like a 32 kind of F.


I probably could have broken down the positions on the line and given them grades. On that website i was on, it does break down the line further then just the unit and grades out well.. at least the gaps the team run through.

Our Guards and Center as a group rated out to top 8 i think in the NFL. our LTs were top 10 run blocking. our run blocking as a whole was 12th. (now understand their metrics for measuring this is influenced in part by the running back. I looked into the numbers, and really there is just no way to measure the run-blocking abilities of the O-line, no matter how you adjust the influence of the RBs without at least including the RBs contributions in some way)

So... as i said in the beginning of the article you can take thier metrics with a grain of salt, in some ways i think they're brilliant, in others i wonder how accurate they are. Interestingly, though the Jets were the number 1 rushing team in the league (normal stats) their line was just the 4th best line, and Thomas Jones was the 23rd rated running back (lower then Jackson). In short according to their numbers, the Jets high rushing rating was mostly due to the crappy run defenses they faced and a good o-line.

So i had to look back at the way the Bils ran the ball, and i think i came to the same conclusion the stats showed. The run blocking of the line probably was a 10-15 rated run blocking unit. it wasn't amazing but really it was horrid. The inside of the line, both passblocking and run blocking was very good (top 10), we got good run blocking from our LTs; but our passblocking looked like 3 men and 2 tackdummies on pretty much every play. Our tackles were turnstiles.

So how to you judge a line like that? If i broke it down like this...

Run Blocking B
Pass Blocking F
then average it i'd get C- or D+

Or i could break it down by position and it would look like this

LT: D-
LG: A
C: B
RG: A-
RT: F

Even there i don't think the LT is judged right but you can't ignore we got good run blocking out of the position, so do you break it down further and go with two ranks per member?

LT: F Pass Blocking / B+ Run Blocking
LG: A- Pass Blocking / A+ Run Blocking
C: B- Pass Blocking / B+ Run Blocking
RG: B Pass Blocking / A Run Blocking
RT: F Pass Blocking / F Run Blocking

What grade do you give that as a unit? C- or D+ is what it looks like. I erred with a C- maybe i should have gone with a D+, either way the unit did some things right.

[Stewie]

Well the season is over and I figure I might as well review where the team is missing talent. To augment this review I spent a little time on Football Outsiders (http://footballoutsiders.com/) because they keep track of a number of highly useful statistics (no i am not affiliated in any way, i just found them a month ago and found it very helpful for performing a little independent analysis to back up or confirm my observation); and use a very interesting metric which normalizes stats for the quality of opposition faced... now you can take that with a grain of salt because many football stats are mostly team affairs not individual accomplishments, however to answer your questions beforehand, yes, when I quote a rating for a position or player that was the primary source, and all ratings are normalized for the strength of opposition and the quality of support from his own team.



The Buffalo Bills entered the 2009 season in flux. They had a deeply unpopular head coach returning for the 4rd year (who should have been fired after year 3) a young and frankly undermanned offensive line, and a linebacker corps which, judging by preseason was looking to be even worse then the previous year's unit. Into this mix the bills fired their OC before the last week of the preseason, cut their starting LT and wandered into Foxborough facing the Tom Brady Patriots with Brady returning for the first time in a year.

Well Poz would break his arm, the pats would catch fire and McKelvin would fumble leading to a massive patriot's comeback, and the bills would never regain their footing the rest of the season.

What follows will be a position by position breakdown, and a grade. I will also address team needs at the end of the breakdown.

Quarterback

The Bills quarterbacks were a disaster this year. No matter what way you judge them, no matter what stats you use they were dismal. Part of the problem was clearly the offensive line play (more on that later) but even normalizing for the line and running game our QBs were surprisingly identical in their futility. According to the metrics at football insider they ranked 32nd (Edwards) and 33rd (Fitzpatrick) in the league.

Position Grade: F
Team Need: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:


Running Back

The Bills entered this season confident in their RB position, even though Lynch would start the year with a 3 game suspension they were reasonably confident they'd get solid play from Fred Jackson. They got that and more. With debatable help from the o-line (more on this later) and little imagination from the OC, the bills somehow managed to turn out to be a fairly decent rushing team.

Statistically speaking, the Bills running backs were not that impressive, though Fred Jackson did break 1000 yards on the ground. Lynch had a dismal year, and our short yardage offense was horrendous. When normalized for the strength of the line (more on this later) and the strength of the opposition, a strange fact emerges. The Bills running back situation is not good at all. While Bills fans are generally happy with Fred Jackson, he's in reality little better then a highly skilled third down back, clocking in at 22nd overall (he was the 5th rated receiving running back though). Lynch was far worse measuring in at 45th in the league. This brings us to an interesting conclusion; this position was weaker then we thought heading into the season, and probably weaker then we still think.

Position Grade: C
Team Need: :star: :star: :star:

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Heading into the season we thought this was a possible strength for the football team. Terrell Owens was supposed to open things up in the passing game. Yet in the end, new OC, the poor pass blocking, terrible QB play, and nonthreatening rushing attack conspired to create a miserable year for both of these WRs. Yet those excuses only go so far, even when normalizing for those things, as football outsiders tries to do our WR corps looks horrendous. Lee Evans ranks just 63rd and Owens comes in at 70th. The Bills received no significant contribution from any other WR; though Josh Reed would have rated 54th had he caught a few more passes.

At Tight End Shawn Nelson a 4th round rookie was able to contribute a bit, though he only rated 55th out of the TEs in the league.

Position Grade: D-
Team Need (WR): :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (TE): :star: :star: :star:


Offensive Line

Entering the season this was the one position we knew was going to be awful. In some ways that's exactly what it was, with a normalized pass blocking rank of 32nd it was the worst pass blocking line in the league. Yet surprisingly, the offensive line by every objective stat turned out to be a fairly competent run blocking unit. A far better run blocking unit then our Running-backs can explain. When normalized for the defenses we faced, and our running back play, the Bills offensive line was ranked 12th in rush blocking. Some glaring weaknesses were shown in those numbers as our RT was disastrously bad in run blocking, while predictably the inside of the line was stout. This largely met with what I saw when I watched them on Sunday. In short, our Running-backs underachieved with the run blocking they were getting from the line. The lone conclusion I'm left with is if we could repair the Tackle position the line could be pretty damned good

Position Grade: C-
Team Need (OT): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (G): :star:
Team Need (C): :star:


Defensive Line

The defensive line has been (rightfully) maligned in Buffalo for years, yet I noticed a change in the lines play heading into the year (even if the personnel has been basically the same). They were holding the point of attack better and showing better gap control then at any time I could remember in recent years. What truly alarmed me was how bad the linebackers looked when the line did a fair job for a change. The stats partly back up that early season observation, and in the end the Defensive line, for a change was not the biggest problem on the field. Some normalized stats for the d-line, the front 4 ranked about 21st in the league against the run (the LBers and DBs ranked 29th), and our pass rush from the front 4 ranked 10th in the league when normalized as well. Across the line, Schobel was actually the 9th best run stopping RE in the league (when normalized for yards, rushing attempts, ect...), while Kyle Williams was the 11th best run stopping RDT, Stroud at LDT was the biggest liability on the line rating 29th, while the dynamic duo of Kelsay/Denney turned in a mediocre 27th rating on the LE

Position Grade: C+
Team Need (LE): :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (LDT): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (RDT): :star: :star:
*Team Need (RE): :star:

*depends on Schobel NOT retiring.


Linebackers

I actually felt reasonably happy with 2 of our 3 linebackers heading into the season, but on seeing the corps in the preseason I rapidly realized my faith was misplaced and knew we were in trouble. Sadly I was right. Injuries devastated what was already a weakness on this team. Poz had a poor year, though I will give him a partial pass for trying to play MLB with a broken arm wrapped heavily in a cast for part of the season. His play did pick up greatly at the end of the year, perhaps giving us a glimpse of what we thought we were drafting, to the point where he seemed to be making big plays all over the field in the last quarter of the season. The rest of the corps was pretty much a joke from top to bottom. The rushing defense stats bare out what I was seeing. No gap discipline, poor tackling and inability to get off blocks resulted in this unit destroying what I thought was a fairly good effort from the Dline all year.

Position Grade: F
Team Need (LOLB): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
Team Need (MLB): :star: :star:
Team Need (ROLB): :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:

Defensive Backs

I was torn heading into this season, I thought safety was a strength, or at least not a weakness on this team, and CB was a borderline weakness beyond McKelvin. Yet that's not how it played out at all. The Bills defensive backs turned out to be the strongest position on the team outside of punter. We were in the top 10 in normalized pass defense against every position on the field (RB, TE, WR1, WR3) except for the 2nd WR, yet even there we were just rated 12th. Florence was rated in the top 4 in the league vs. other teams number 1 WR, ahead of even DMVP Woodson, Byrd lead the league in INTs, our pass defense rated 4th overall when normalized for our opposition; throw in the normalized 10th rated pass rush and all the INTs we had makes plenty of sense. This is a unit that only gets stronger when McKelvin comes back. Overall, there is a lot to love here, except their run defense.

Position Grade: A
Team Need (RCB): :star:
Team Need (SS): :star: :star:
Team Need (FS): :star:
Team Need (LCB): :star:


Special Teams

The Bills special teams slipped this year, falling from its perennial top 3 finish down to 12th in the league, primarily due to the return game becoming generally abysmal. Liddell, thanks to his 85% FG percentage now holds 4 of the best 5 seasons in Bills kicking history; Moorman finished the year with an astronomically high 90 punts... and somehow managed to get a 40+ yard net average, (not to mention a perfect QBR) The return game actually lost us 2 football games this year, and generally did a poor job getting us good field position.

Position Grade: B
Team Need (P): :star:
Team Need (K): :star:
Team Need (K/PR): :star: :star: :star: :star:




Summation of Team Needs
QB: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
OT: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
OLB: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
LDT: :star: :star: :star: :star: :star:
-
LDE: :star: :star: :star: :star:
WR: :star: :star: :star: :star:
K/PR: :star: :star: :star: :star:
-
TE: :star: :star: :star:
RB: :star: :star: :star:
-
SS: :star: :star:
MLB: :star: :star:
RDT: :star: :star:

Thanks for the post and effort. But, you just heard of football outsiders a month ago!? That site is for football what moneyball was for baseball.

[Ingtar33]

Thanks for the post and effort. But, you just heard of football outsiders a month ago!? That site is for football what moneyball was for baseball.


lol. what are these "internets" people are talking about?

It took an assistant coach to point the website out to me, to my supreme embarrassment.

I might have seen the site before, i find it hard to believe i've not.. but when you see hundreds of new sites a year, you forget about them rapidly. Either way. I have to say it's extremely useful in my mind.

[Dying_-2-_Live]

Fixing the O-line... would have reduced our QB need by 1 or 2 stars... and the RB need would have been as low as 1 star. Just need some serious help in the depth department... and a starter for both tackle spots in my opinion

[DraftBoy]

Fixing the O-line... would have reduced our QB need by 1 or 2 stars... and the RB need would have been as low as 1 star. Just need some serious help in the depth department... and a starter for both tackle spots in my opinion


I dont think it would of actually.

[Ingtar33]

I dont think it would of actually.


I don't either; listen we have a serious conundrum.

We have 4 positions that need to be addressed immediately by talented NFL level starters (at the least).

We need someone else to QB this team. I don't mean to imply Brohm won't be a solid NFL QB in the future.. or that Edwards might not turn it around. But you can't go into an NFL year with hopes and flights of fantasy fueling your QB play. That means we need to either
1) Trade for a QB (McNabb?)
2) Sign a FA QB (not sure any will be availible who will be an improvement)
3) spend a no.1 on QB

We Need a LT AND a RT. We might have a serviceable RT somewhere on the squad (though i doubt it, because unlike the rest of the board i didn't like how butler looked at RT). This means we need to...

LT
1) Sign or trade for a starting quality LT
2) Spend a number 1 on a LT

RT
1) sign or Trade for a starting quality RT
2) spend a number 2 on a RT

We need 2, not one.. but 2 OLBs. Some people might want to talk about Mitchell or Ellison being serviceable, i disagree. They looked horrific when they were on the field, i'd say Chris Draft was an improvement over both and he was an unmitigated disaster as well. the need is desperate here if we want to field a solid run defense. So what are our options?

1) sign an MLB, move Poz outside, then find either in the Draft or FA another OLB.
2) sign 2 olbs (or trade for them)
3) sign 1 LBer, draft another with a 2nd or higher pick
4) spend our top 2 picks on OLB

We need another DT. Stroud was miserable all season. This is a desperate need, because we need better production from the middle of the line if we're going to sport a good defense going into the future.

1) sign a DT/trade for a DT
2) spend a no.1 on a DT


-now... looking at what you need to do to fill these holes one glaring truth shows up. Unless we find some late round messiahs, we can't fix this in one off season without a massive spending spree by ralph and some wild wheeling and dealing.

___________________________________________________________________________


If i was to try to juggle this mess they way i'd do it is...

1) Trade for McNabb or find some Vet stopgap who's an improvement at QB. The top two QBs won't be there at number 9, we need to get someone in who can play the position now. (a 3rd maybe for McNabb, with a player or another pick the following year?)... Yes buffalo we might be looking at Jake Delhomme as our starter next season.

2) Spend our first pick on one of the top OTs

3) Sign a quality NFL RT

4) Spend a 2nd round pick on an OLB

5) Sign the best OLB/MLB available in free agency

6) Sign the best DT available in free agency, spend the next draft pick the Bills have on DT.


-i just can't see the Bills and Ralph doing all of this. But that's where i would start if i wanted to make this team competitive.

[DraftBoy]

I don't either; listen we have a serious conundrum.

We have 4 positions that need to be addressed immediately by talented NFL level starters (at the least).

We need someone else to QB this team. I don't mean to imply Brohm won't be a solid NFL QB in the future.. or that Edwards might not turn it around. But you can't go into an NFL year with hopes and flights of fantasy fueling your QB play. That means we need to either
1) Trade for a QB (McNabb?)
2) Sign a FA QB (not sure any will be availible who will be an improvement)
3) spend a no.1 on QB

We Need a LT AND a RT. We might have a serviceable RT somewhere on the squad (though i doubt it, because unlike the rest of the board i didn't like how butler looked at RT). This means we need to...

LT
1) Sign or trade for a starting quality LT
2) Spend a number 1 on a LT

RT
1) sign or Trade for a starting quality RT
2) spend a number 2 on a RT

We need 2, not one.. but 2 OLBs. Some people might want to talk about Mitchell or Ellison being serviceable, i disagree. They looked horrific when they were on the field, i'd say Chris Draft was an improvement over both and he was an unmitigated disaster as well. the need is desperate here if we want to field a solid run defense. So what are our options?

1) sign an MLB, move Poz outside, then find either in the Draft or FA another OLB.
2) sign 2 olbs (or trade for them)
3) sign 1 LBer, draft another with a 2nd or higher pick
4) spend our top 2 picks on OLB

We need another DT. Stroud was miserable all season. This is a desperate need, because we need better production from the middle of the line if we're going to sport a good defense going into the future.

1) sign a DT/trade for a DT
2) spend a no.1 on a DT


-now... looking at what you need to do to fill these holes one glaring truth shows up. Unless we find some late round messiahs, we can't fix this in one off season without a massive spending spree by ralph and some wild wheeling and dealing.

___________________________________________________________________________


If i was to try to juggle this mess they way i'd do it is...

1) Trade for McNabb or find some Vet stopgap who's an improvement at QB. The top two QBs won't be there at number 9, we need to get someone in who can play the position now. (a 3rd maybe for McNabb, with a player or another pick the following year?)... Yes buffalo we might be looking at Jake Delhomme as our starter next season.

2) Spend our first pick on one of the top OTs

3) Sign a quality NFL RT

4) Spend a 2nd round pick on an OLB

5) Sign the best OLB/MLB available in free agency

6) Sign the best DT available in free agency, spend the next draft pick the Bills have on DT.


-i just can't see the Bills and Ralph doing all of this. But that's where i would start if i wanted to make this team competitive.


1. Good list, personally Im ok with our QB situation next year knowing its going to suck. Brohm, Edwards and Fitz fight it out in camp and pre-season, loser gets cut and #3 QB goes to a developmental late round prospect. I would eye the 2011 Draft/Offseason as the place to fix our QB problems, not this one.

2. I agree which is why I think the Bryan Bulaga needs to be the 1st Round pick.

3. Agreed, though I do like Meredith's potential but he needs another year as a backup (if not 2).

4. Not a lot of OLB depth 4-3 wise in Round 2. The draft has a couple good top guys and then lulls and has some good later round prospects. That's going to be hard to fill via draft.

5. Hello, Karlos Dansby!

6. Richard Seymour or Vince Wilfork! Arthur Jones may be there in Round 3 if we get lucky, though I doubt it, maybe a Tyson Alualu.

Still need to address RB, DE, SS, WR, another OT, another LB, and a QB. We are in a disarray.

[Ingtar33]

Still need to address RB, DE, SS, WR, another OT, another LB, and a QB. We are in a disarray.


for the rest of the mess in order of need I'd address...

LDE - We'd just need to watch for a pass rusher or run stopper who will be an improvement over the dynamic duo of Denney and Kelsay; and grab him wherever we can. Sadly i don't know where we'll find one but we have to look at least. maybe a vet will get cut.

WR - I'd think long and hard about a WR in round 2 or 3... if a good one fell to us... A vet to help out won't be a bad option either.

P/KR - might be able to solve when we're solving WR/RB

RB - We just need to keep our eyes open for an opportunity to get better