There's failure, the there's FAILURE

[billistic]

There are currently 32 teams in the NFL. (I don't want to complicate things unnecessarily by going back into the archaic times when the AFL-NFL thing was evolving.)

If all things were equal, if winning were merely a crap shoot, the chance of the Bills winning the Super Bowl would be ~3%, each year.

The Bills have been extant for 50 years. The odds that they have never won even one a Super Bowl because they are simply unlucky is:

~20% (one in five)

Therefore, the odds that Ralph's organization has intervened to somehow prevent the Bills from having ever won a Super Bowl is ~4/5, or 80%.

There's no such thing as a safe bet, but, in terms of football...

Ralph sure has a major loser's system going.

[MikeInRoch]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

Even if there was just luck involved, a 1/5 of something not happening is actually a REALLY big percentage.

[Ickybaluky]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

Maybe that just means they are due. You know, law of averages.

[FlyingDutchman]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

anyone else completely confused by the title of this thread?

[Mahdi]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

anyone else completely confused by the title of this thread?

Then instead of The.

[FlyingDutchman]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

Then instead of The.

[billistic]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

Even if there was just luck involved, a 1/5 of something not happening is actually a REALLY big percentage.

Stay away from Las Vegas.

[Ron Burgundy]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

I'm not following your numbers.

How'd you get from us having a 3% chance of winning every year, to a 1 in 5 that we haven't won one in 50 years?

[Ingtar33]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

I'm not following your numbers.

How'd you get from us having a 3% chance of winning every year, to a 1 in 5 that we haven't won one in 50 years?

good question. with all things being equal we should have 1.5 super bowls by now.

[billistic]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

I'm not following your numbers.

How'd you get from us having a 3% chance of winning every year, to a 1 in 5 that we haven't won one in 50 years?

No. 3% is the chance (by dumb luck) to win EACH year. So the chance of not winning in a given year is 97%.

So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.

[billistic]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

good question. with all things being equal we should have 1.5 super bowls by now.

That's correct, too. But we've won zero.

[billistic]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

The odds that the Steelers have won six SBs just by dumb luck is just about the same as the odds that the Bills have never won a single one, namely about 20% (actually 0.18 v 0.21).

The point being that it's illogical to suppose that the Bills are just unlucky or that the Steelers are just lucky.

The Bills have been the victims of their own incompetence, and the Steelers (over the long haul) pretty much know what they are doing, as judged by history.

It ain't easy, but it also ain't impossible (except for the Bills - and guess who else?).

[Ingtar33]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

No. 3% is the chance (by dumb luck) to win EACH year. So the chance of not winning in a given year is 97%.

So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.

oh.. you wrote it awkwardly in the first post. what you mean to say is...

with a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl every year, the chance the bills wouldn't any superbowls is just 20%

or only 1 team in 5 wouldn't win a single superbowl after 50 years in a 32 team league. since there are only 44 superbowls the actual number would be 26%

the problem is it's not been a 32 team league for the whole time the superbowl has been around and there hasn't been 50 superbowls.

this year will be the 44th superbowl.

1966 - 24 teams
1967 - 25 teams
1968 - 26 teams
1976 - 28 teams
1995 - 30 teams
1999 - 31 teams
2002 - 32 teams

so the actual math is...

[(1 - 1/24)^1]*[(1 - 1/25)^1]*[(1 - 1/26)^8]*[(1 - 1/28)^19]*[(1 - 1/30)^4]*[(1 - 1/31)^3]*[(1 - 1/32)^8] = 20.67%

which amusingly and completely coincidentally is almost identical with your numbers with the wrong number of super bowls and the wrong number of teams.

[billistic]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

oh.. you wrote it awkwardly in the first post. what you mean to say is...

with a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl every year, the chance the bills wouldn't any superbowls is just 20%

or only 1 team in 5 wouldn't win a single superbowl after 50 years in a 32 team league. since there are only 44 superbowls the actual number would be 26%

the problem is it's not been a 32 team league for the whole time the superbowl has been around and there hasn't been 50 superbowls.

this year will be the 44th superbowl.

1966 - 24 teams
1967 - 25 teams
1968 - 26 teams
1976 - 28 teams
1995 - 30 teams
1999 - 31 teams
2002 - 32 teams

so the actual math is...

[(1 - 1/24)^1]*[(1 - 1/25)^1]*[(1 - 1/26)^8]*[(1 - 1/28)^19]*[(1 - 1/30)^4]*[(1 - 1/31)^3]*[(1 - 1/32)^8] = 20.67%

which amusingly and completely coincidentally is almost identical with your numbers with the wrong number of super bowls and the wrong number of teams.

...or, as I stated in the first place:

(I don't want to complicate things unnecessarily by going back into the archaic times when the AFL-NFL thing was evolving.)

...and why I used the "~"...

..but if it helps you to get extra puffed-up, fine with me!

[Ron Burgundy]

Re: There's failure, the there's FAILURE

No. 3% is the chance (by dumb luck) to win EACH year. So the chance of not winning in a given year is 97%.

So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.

I never was a math guy (probablility and its ilk are fascinating; I've just never studied it) so I'm guessing this is my fault for not understanding you.

And feel free to drop this if it's not interesting to you, but...

If you had a bag full of the names of all the teams in the NFL, and you drew one out, noted the name, and put it back, the odds that you pull "Buffalo" is about three percent.

If you did this 50 times in a row, or 1,000, the odds don't change: every time you pull a name, it's approximately a three percent chance that the name is Buffalo.

Right?