There's failure, the there's FAILURE

[billistic]

There are currently 32 teams in the NFL. (I don't want to complicate things unnecessarily by going back into the archaic times when the AFL-NFL thing was evolving.)

If all things were equal, if winning were merely a crap shoot, the chance of the Bills winning the Super Bowl would be ~3%, each year.

The Bills have been extant for 50 years. The odds that they have never won even one a Super Bowl because they are simply unlucky is:

~20% (one in five)

Therefore, the odds that Ralph's organization has intervened to somehow prevent the Bills from having ever won a Super Bowl is ~4/5, or 80%.

There's no such thing as a safe bet, but, in terms of football...

Ralph sure has a major loser's system going.

[MikeInRoch]

Even if there was just luck involved, a 1/5 of something not happening is actually a REALLY big percentage.

[Ickybaluky]

Maybe that just means they are due. You know, law of averages.

[FlyingDutchman]

anyone else completely confused by the title of this thread?

[Mahdi]

anyone else completely confused by the title of this thread?
Then instead of The.

[FlyingDutchman]

Then instead of The.

:cheers:

[billistic]

Even if there was just luck involved, a 1/5 of something not happening is actually a REALLY big percentage.

Stay away from Las Vegas.

[Ron Burgundy]

I'm not following your numbers. :(

How'd you get from us having a 3% chance of winning every year, to a 1 in 5 that we haven't won one in 50 years?

[Ingtar33]

I'm not following your numbers. :(

How'd you get from us having a 3% chance of winning every year, to a 1 in 5 that we haven't won one in 50 years?


good question. with all things being equal we should have 1.5 super bowls by now.

[billistic]

I'm not following your numbers. :(

How'd you get from us having a 3% chance of winning every year, to a 1 in 5 that we haven't won one in 50 years?

No. 3% is the chance (by dumb luck) to win EACH year. So the chance of not winning in a given year is 97%.

So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.

[billistic]

good question. with all things being equal we should have 1.5 super bowls by now.

That's correct, too. But we've won zero.

[billistic]

The odds that the Steelers have won six SBs just by dumb luck is just about the same as the odds that the Bills have never won a single one, namely about 20% (actually 0.18 v 0.21).

The point being that it's illogical to suppose that the Bills are just unlucky or that the Steelers are just lucky.

The Bills have been the victims of their own incompetence, and the Steelers (over the long haul) pretty much know what they are doing, as judged by history.

It ain't easy, but it also ain't impossible (except for the Bills - and guess who else?).

[Ingtar33]

No. 3% is the chance (by dumb luck) to win EACH year. So the chance of not winning in a given year is 97%.

So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.


oh.. you wrote it awkwardly in the first post. what you mean to say is...

with a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl every year, the chance the bills wouldn't any superbowls is just 20%

or only 1 team in 5 wouldn't win a single superbowl after 50 years in a 32 team league. since there are only 44 superbowls the actual number would be 26%

the problem is it's not been a 32 team league for the whole time the superbowl has been around and there hasn't been 50 superbowls.

this year will be the 44th superbowl.

1966 - 24 teams
1967 - 25 teams
1968 - 26 teams
1976 - 28 teams
1995 - 30 teams
1999 - 31 teams
2002 - 32 teams

so the actual math is...

[(1 - 1/24)^1]*[(1 - 1/25)^1]*[(1 - 1/26)^8]*[(1 - 1/28)^19]*[(1 - 1/30)^4]*[(1 - 1/31)^3]*[(1 - 1/32)^8] = 20.67%

which amusingly and completely coincidentally is almost identical with your numbers with the wrong number of super bowls and the wrong number of teams.

[billistic]

oh.. you wrote it awkwardly in the first post. what you mean to say is...

with a 3% chance to win the Super Bowl every year, the chance the bills wouldn't any superbowls is just 20%

or only 1 team in 5 wouldn't win a single superbowl after 50 years in a 32 team league. since there are only 44 superbowls the actual number would be 26%

the problem is it's not been a 32 team league for the whole time the superbowl has been around and there hasn't been 50 superbowls.

this year will be the 44th superbowl.

1966 - 24 teams
1967 - 25 teams
1968 - 26 teams
1976 - 28 teams
1995 - 30 teams
1999 - 31 teams
2002 - 32 teams

so the actual math is...

[(1 - 1/24)^1]*[(1 - 1/25)^1]*[(1 - 1/26)^8]*[(1 - 1/28)^19]*[(1 - 1/30)^4]*[(1 - 1/31)^3]*[(1 - 1/32)^8] = 20.67%

which amusingly and completely coincidentally is almost identical with your numbers with the wrong number of super bowls and the wrong number of teams.
...or, as I stated in the first place:


(I don't want to complicate things unnecessarily by going back into the archaic times when the AFL-NFL thing was evolving.)

...and why I used the "~"...

..but if it helps you to get extra puffed-up, fine with me!
http://www.allfunbear.com/pix/donesmiley3.gif

[Ron Burgundy]

No. 3% is the chance (by dumb luck) to win EACH year. So the chance of not winning in a given year is 97%.

So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.

I never was a math guy (probablility and its ilk are fascinating; I've just never studied it) so I'm guessing this is my fault for not understanding you.

And feel free to drop this if it's not interesting to you, but...

If you had a bag full of the names of all the teams in the NFL, and you drew one out, noted the name, and put it back, the odds that you pull "Buffalo" is about three percent.

If you did this 50 times in a row, or 1,000, the odds don't change: every time you pull a name, it's approximately a three percent chance that the name is Buffalo.

Right?

[billistic]

I never was a math guy (probablility and its ilk are fascinating; I've just never studied it) so I'm guessing this is my fault for not understanding you.

And feel free to drop this if it's not interesting to you, but...

If you had a bag full of the names of all the teams in the NFL, and you drew one out, noted the name, and put it back, the odds that you pull "Buffalo" is about three percent.

If you did this 50 times in a row, or 1,000, the odds don't change: every time you pull a name, it's approximately a three percent chance that the name is Buffalo.

Right?

I think that's right, but you better check with ingtar, to make sure.

[Ron Burgundy]

I think that's right, but you better check with ingtar, to make sure.

If that's right, homie, then your original post is way off. :)

[Night Train]

anyone else completely confused by the title of this thread?

The there's failure = failure

How ironic.

[billistic]

If that's right, homie, then your original post is way off. :)

Congratulations for mastering the "new math".

Stay away from Las Vegas.

[billistic]

The there's failure = failure

How ironic.

Bingo! spelling monitor!!

[Ron Burgundy]

Congratulations for mastering the "new math".

Stay away from Las Vegas.

I appreciate the advice on Vegas.

Maybe Ingtar wants to take a stab? I like learning.

[billistic]

I appreciate the advice on Vegas.

Maybe Ingtar wants to take a stab? I like learning.

I think ingtar and night train have all the answers you're looking for.

[Thief]

Maybe that just means they are due. You know, law of averages.The 3% remains 3% the next year. It doesn't increase to 6%. There is no such thing as "due" on a slot machine.

[billistic]

What's the problem, anyway?

My rough calculation suggested that the odds that the Bills have been run stupidly were only 4-out-of-5.

I reality, the odds are 999-out-of-1000.

When theory matches the empirical, the argument gets pretty strong. Still, I could be wrong...

Maybe the Bills organization has been humming along all these years, but I missed it.

[Ron Burgundy]

I think ingtar and night train have all the answers you're looking for.

Hey, that's why I asked.

I'm just a little confused as to how this seems right to you:


If you did this 50 times in a row, or 1,000, the odds don't change: every time you pull a name, it's approximately a three percent chance that the name is Buffalo.

when that's most assuredly not this:


So the chance of not winning 50 times in a row is 0.97 * 0.97 * 0,97 etc., fifty times (0.97 to the 50th power; for example, 2 raised to the 4th power is 16). The answer is ~ 20%, or 1 in 5.

Again, I'm more than happy to be corrected here. Lay it out. This request is open to anybody.

[MikeInRoch]

Stay away from Las Vegas.

Based on what? The fact that I think that a 20% chance is still a pretty big percentage? It's all relative. A 20% chance that I'm going to win a game of chess is pretty small. A 20% chance that I'm going to crash my car on the way home is pretty damn big.

What I'm suggesting is that many people look at a number such as 20% and think "therefore it shouldn't ever really happen, because 20% is really small.". It's not THAT small.

And if you are trying to imply that I shouldn't gamble because of a lack of mathematical knowledge, I can assure you that is not the case. :D

[billistic]

Based on what? The fact that I think that a 20% chance is still a pretty big percentage? It's all relative. A 20% chance that I'm going to win a game of chess is pretty small. A 20% chance that I'm going to crash my car on the way home is pretty damn big.

What I'm suggesting is that many people look at a number such as 20% and think "therefore it shouldn't ever really happen, because 20% is really small.". It's not THAT small.

Well...the odds of bloing your brains out playing Russian roulette are 1-out-of-6, or just a nudge lower than 20% (sorry ingtar, sorry night train). Fire away...

[Ingtar33]

I never was a math guy (probablility and its ilk are fascinating; I've just never studied it) so I'm guessing this is my fault for not understanding you.

And feel free to drop this if it's not interesting to you, but...

If you had a bag full of the names of all the teams in the NFL, and you drew one out, noted the name, and put it back, the odds that you pull "Buffalo" is about three percent.

If you did this 50 times in a row, or 1,000, the odds don't change: every time you pull a name, it's approximately a three percent chance that the name is Buffalo.

Right?


good question.

And you're right... on any individual year there is about a 3% chance the Bills will win the Superbowl (all things being equal with all teams drafting about the same and ownership being equal).

while if you take any one year and look at it the percentage doesn't change (well it does a little as the number of teams change), it will be roughly 3% chance, when you examine it out over the number of years in total you will get a probability of it occuring.

for example, if i roll a 6 sided dice 12 times, the chance that i will get a 1 on any roll will be 1/6. but the chance i won't get any 1's over 12 rolls would be (1-1/6)^12 = 11.2% chance.

that means if i roll 1 dice 12 times, then do 100 separate sets of them, somewhere around 11 sets will have no 1's in it.


the chance for winning a Superbowl in any given year will remain 3%,
the chance of never winning a Superbowl over 44 years will be just about 20%
the AVERAGE team will have won 1.5 Superbowl over that period of time.

which mean based on all things being equal 25 or 26 teams should have won a Superbowl.

however all things are not equal. only 17 teams have won a Superbowl

[billistic]

"however all things are not equal. only 17 teams have won a Superbowl"

Quite an echo in here.

Steelers 6, Cowboys 5. Those mofos sure are lucky...

[billistic]

good question.

And you're right... on any individual year there is about a 3% chance the Bills will win the Superbowl (all things being equal with all teams drafting about the same and ownership being equal).

while if you take any one year and look at it the percentage doesn't change (well it does a little as the number of teams change), it will be roughly 3% chance, when you examine it out over the number of years in total you will get a probability of it occuring.

for example, if i roll a 6 sided dice 12 times, the chance that i will get a 1 on any roll will be 1/6. but the chance i won't get any 1's over 12 rolls would be (1-1/6)^12 = 11.2% chance.

that means if i roll 1 dice 12 times, then do 100 separate sets of them, somewhere around 11 sets will have no 1's in it.


the chance for winning a Superbowl in any given year will remain 3%,
the chance of never winning a Superbowl over 44 years will be just about 20%
the AVERAGE team will have won 1.5 Superbowl over that period of time.

which mean based on all things being equal 25 or 26 teams should have won a Superbowl.

however all things are not equal. only 17 teams have won a Superbowl

Now tell him how come the chances that the Steelers have won 6 by luck is 18%.
http://www.allfunbear.com/pix/donesmiley3.gif

[Typ0]

I think you pretty much proved that Wilson is the devil.

[billistic]

I think you pretty much proved that Wilson is the devil.

If anything, I provided some utterly superfluous reasons for understanding that Ralph has been a sub-par owner.

Belichick is the Devil.

[Typ0]

If anything, I provided some utterly superfluous reasons for understanding that Ralph has been a sub-par owner.

Belichick is the Devil.


Belichick is not the long term reason this franchise sucks.

[billistic]

Belichick is not the long term reason this franchise sucks.

Couldn't agree more.

[jamze132]

There is a 1 in 210 chance of pulling AA in the pocket in Hold Em'...

Those are MUCH better odds than the Bills making .500

[Historian]

I had no idea there was data available, lol.