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kernowboy
02-23-2010, 06:59 AM
Firstly I am sticking to two of my major themes which are trading Lynch and not drafting a QB.

Fred-x is clearly the starter, and to be quite frank, whilst Lynch is a very good RB, that only occurs when he wants to be and we can help the team more by trading him for a 3rd or maybe a high 4th. Whilst some fans might feel a 4th is way too low, if it means we can get a player at a deep position who can contribute more to the significant changes the team will be undergoing, then its a move that should be made.

As for QB, if we don't take a R1 pick which we now doubly shouldn't with the retirement of Butler, there is no point in my opinion looking at a developmental prospect on Day2. We might as well wait and use a high pick in 2011, and put them in an environment where they will be more likely to succeed.

Day1
R1. Bruce Campbell, 6ft7, 310lbs, 4.98. Maryland.

I definitely don't think Okung will fall to us, which leaves a choice of 3 - Bulaga, Davis and Campbell. Bulaga owned Morgan but got owned by Graham so I am uncertain how much further upside he has. Davis has work ethic and maturity issues. Campbell seems to fit between the two; not as experienced but with more upside than Bulaga, but more mature than Davis. QB, LT and DT are 3 positions with the greatest positional value in any draft so I think it has to be a LT over the like of Bryant (WR) or McClain (ILB)

Day2
R2. Cam Thomas, 6ft3, 331lbs, 5.20. North Carolina.

With the switch to a 3-4 defence, NT becomes a vital component. Cody might fall to the 2nd but I think he is a fat, undedicated slob who will be a two down player only. Thomas has had a very good senior bowl after a good season considering he played with an ankle injury and is a player climbing in the draft. He might be a slight reach in the 2nd, but he won't be there when we draft in the 3rd

R3. Sean Lee, 6ft3, 236lbs 4.75 Penn St

Would have been a 1st rounder if not for his knee injury as a junior. Considering the injury history of Posluzny and Mitchell, could very well be starting by the end of the season. A team captain and a very good football intelligent player.

Day 3
R4. LYNCH TRADE (SEATTLE?)

Linval Joseph, 6ft6, 322lbs, 5.15 East Carolina.

We don't have the personnel for the 3-4 so picks have to be spent in the trenches. There are a number of guys likely to be around in the 3rd and 4th rounds such as Mike Neal, Arthur Jones, Vince Oghobaase who can play DE, but I will go for the DL man from the Pirates. He has the sort of size that will allow our ILBs to become playmakers, is significantly bigger than Neal and Jones and penetrates more effectively than Oghobaase. As a junior he has more upside than the others. Has been mocked anywhere between the 3rd and the 5th, but I'd rather reach a little and make sure he becomes a Bill

R4. Danny Batten OLB, 6ft4, 252lbs, 4.65, South Dakota St

Another football player. 9 sacks as a senior. Could line up as a 4-3 DE, or a 3-4 OLB and even played ILB to good effect during Texas v the Nation. The sort of guy who would be an asset in the roster as he can clearly handle anything thrown his way

R5. Naaman Roosevelt WR, 6ft, 191lbs, 4.49, Buffalo

Quick rather than fast, but simply catches everything. Described as the best WR the nation has not yet heard of. Considering the lack of progress of Hardy and Johnson, he could easily become our Pierre Garcon

R6. James Starks RB, 6ft2, 211lbs, 4.55, Buffalo

A 3rd rounder before missing his senior season. Good on the ground with back to back 1,000yds seasons, hands effective enough to catch 52 passes in a season, and enough speed to go the distance. Decent backup behind Fred-x and maybe the long term usurper.

R6. Ryan D'Imperio ILB, 6ft2, 245lbs, 4.80, Rutgers

With only two injury prone ILBs on the roster we definitely need to add some depth at this position.

R7. Cory Jackson, FB, 6ft1, 245lbs, 4.70, Maryland

An extremely tough blocker with decent hands. If we are going to be running the ball, lets help Fred-x find the endzone

R7. Ramon Harewood, RT, 6ft6, 353lbs, 5.45, Moorhouse

He won't start as rookie, but has significant upside. You'd need a taxi to get around him and his West Indian sports background makes him a genuine athlete. Won't start as rookie but might be starting by 2011. Unlike Bell, this guy has MASSIVE STRENGTH. Definitely worth carrying on the roster.

Considering the poverty and therefore premium paid on Free Agents this year, 2010 is unlikely to be a winning season especially considering the dramatic changes to playing formation as we will have to improve through the draft. My reasoning for position is as follows

QB: With already a prospect in Brohm, spending a 3rd or 4th on another maybe he won't make it prospect like LeFlevour, Pike or Snead seems we are spreading our developmental abilities too thin. Lets see what we really have in Brohm first

RB: With needs across the roster, Lynch is a backup luxury whose value can be better used elsewhere

OL: Set in the middle, and with a draft pick at LT, I think RT will be by committee next year with Meredith, Bell, Watkins, Scott, and even Ramsey in the mix

WR: Yes the QB needs a target but we also need to see if proper coaching and use will bring the best out of Hardy first before spending another high pick

TE: Nelson, Schoumann, and Stupar are set

DL: The switch means we need to get some 3-4 players in. Hence the high picks on Thomas and Joseph.

LB: 3 Ends transitioning to OLB, 2 ILB who are injury prone. More than anything else we need depth.

DB: As set as any roster might be. No picks should be spent here.

We look to ugrade in the trenches with 4 picks, and also deal with a potential LB issue with 3 picks. 3 skills players only though one of these might be considered a mobile guard. I have gone for athletes who potentially are a reach due to inexperience early, but then tried to go for football intelligent players who lack stopwatch athleticism later as I think these guys are often the more valuable lower draft picks.

Mahdi
02-23-2010, 07:04 AM
So all the picks are projects? Good effort for sure but that is a very risky draft.

Bruce Campbell is definitely an intriguing prospect but he is too far from a sure thing to spend the #9 on him.

Cam Thomas is also a project, so basically the two most critical picks to the future of this team are iffy and taken very high.

kernowboy
02-23-2010, 07:09 AM
So all the picks are projects? Good effort for sure but that is a very risky draft.

Bruce Campbell is definitely an intriguing prospect but he is too far from a sure thing to spend the #9 on him.

Cam Thomas is also a project, so basically the two most critical picks to the future of this team are iffy and taken very high.

I think Thomas is the safest of the NTs available - Cody will have a two year career, whilst Williams will be a R1 pick and might not be a 3-4 NT anyway.

I think at LT you've got Okung, then Bulaga-Davis-Campbell, and then with a significant drop in quality all of the rest.

Whilst Campbell might be an 'iffy' pick he's definitely less iffy than the likes of our current LT, or someone like Saffold or Veldheer who are far iffier. If we are serious about building a winning team we cannot and must not leave R1 without a LT - the last 8 years have shown us that this is franchise suicide.

Joseph is a project but then all the DL choices are because they will all be shifting to a 3-4 alignment. I think he's more likely to succeed than the others.

Mahdi
02-23-2010, 07:20 AM
I think Thomas is the safest of the NTs available - Cody will have a two year career, whilst Williams will be a R1 pick and might not be a 3-4 NT anyway.

I think at LT you've got Okung, then Bulaga-Davis-Campbell, and then with a significant drop in quality all of the rest.

Whilst Campbell might be an 'iffy' pick he's definitely less iffy than the likes of our current LT, or someone like Saffold or Veldheer who are far iffier. If we are serious about building a winning team we cannot and must not leave R1 without a LT - the last 8 years have shown us that this is franchise suicide.

Joseph is a project but then all the DL choices are because they will all be shifting to a 3-4 alignment. I think he's more likely to succeed than the others.
Ok but you can't compare Bruce Campbell to Saffold and Veldheer. Campbell is a first round prospect and the other two are 3rd round prospects.


What you are saying pretty much is that we have to take an OT at #9 no matter who it is and that will get us in trouble as it has with all our first round picks lately.

The Bills are in desperate need of an elite player whoever he may be and whatever position he plays, not just an OT.

IMO, when are pick is up we take the highest value available because we have so many needs anyways.

The question you have to ask yourself is... In 3 years do I want to look back and see that I drafted an average OT at #9 who starts for me or an elite safety or WR that has already been to the Pro Bowl?

For me, I take Eric Berry or Dez Bryant before I even think about taking prospects that have too many questions. You gotta take a guy @ #9 who you believe is as close to being elite as possible. Bryant and Berry are that, Campbell is not anywhere near them.

DraftBoy
02-23-2010, 07:34 AM
Firstly I am sticking to two of my major themes which are trading Lynch and not drafting a QB.

Fred-x is clearly the starter, and to be quite frank, whilst Lynch is a very good RB, that only occurs when he wants to be and we can help the team more by trading him for a 3rd or maybe a high 4th. Whilst some fans might feel a 4th is way too low, if it means we can get a player at a deep position who can contribute more to the significant changes the team will be undergoing, then its a move that should be made.

As for QB, if we don't take a R1 pick which we now doubly shouldn't with the retirement of Butler, there is no point in my opinion looking at a developmental prospect on Day2. We might as well wait and use a high pick in 2011, and put them in an environment where they will be more likely to succeed.

Day1
R1. Bruce Campbell, 6ft7, 310lbs, 4.98. Maryland.

I definitely don't think Okung will fall to us, which leaves a choice of 3 - Bulaga, Davis and Campbell. Bulaga owned Morgan but got owned by Graham so I am uncertain how much further upside he has. Davis has work ethic and maturity issues. Campbell seems to fit between the two; not as experienced but with more upside than Bulaga, but more mature than Davis. QB, LT and DT are 3 positions with the greatest positional value in any draft so I think it has to be a LT over the like of Bryant (WR) or McClain (ILB)

Day2
R2. Cam Thomas, 6ft3, 331lbs, 5.20. North Carolina.

With the switch to a 3-4 defence, NT becomes a vital component. Cody might fall to the 2nd but I think he is a fat, undedicated slob who will be a two down player only. Thomas has had a very good senior bowl after a good season considering he played with an ankle injury and is a player climbing in the draft. He might be a slight reach in the 2nd, but he won't be there when we draft in the 3rd

R3. Sean Lee, 6ft3, 236lbs 4.75 Penn St

Would have been a 1st rounder if not for his knee injury as a junior. Considering the injury history of Posluzny and Mitchell, could very well be starting by the end of the season. A team captain and a very good football intelligent player.

Day 3
R4. LYNCH TRADE (SEATTLE?)

Linval Joseph, 6ft6, 322lbs, 5.15 East Carolina.

We don't have the personnel for the 3-4 so picks have to be spent in the trenches. There are a number of guys likely to be around in the 3rd and 4th rounds such as Mike Neal, Arthur Jones, Vince Oghobaase who can play DE, but I will go for the DL man from the Pirates. He has the sort of size that will allow our ILBs to become playmakers, is significantly bigger than Neal and Jones and penetrates more effectively than Oghobaase. As a junior he has more upside than the others. Has been mocked anywhere between the 3rd and the 5th, but I'd rather reach a little and make sure he becomes a Bill

R4. Danny Batten OLB, 6ft4, 252lbs, 4.65, South Dakota St

Another football player. 9 sacks as a senior. Could line up as a 4-3 DE, or a 3-4 OLB and even played ILB to good effect during Texas v the Nation. The sort of guy who would be an asset in the roster as he can clearly handle anything thrown his way

R5. Naaman Roosevelt WR, 6ft, 191lbs, 4.49, Buffalo

Quick rather than fast, but simply catches everything. Described as the best WR the nation has not yet heard of. Considering the lack of progress of Hardy and Johnson, he could easily become our Pierre Garcon

R6. James Starks RB, 6ft2, 211lbs, 4.55, Buffalo

A 3rd rounder before missing his senior season. Good on the ground with back to back 1,000yds seasons, hands effective enough to catch 52 passes in a season, and enough speed to go the distance. Decent backup behind Fred-x and maybe the long term usurper.

R6. Ryan D'Imperio ILB, 6ft2, 245lbs, 4.80, Rutgers

With only two injury prone ILBs on the roster we definitely need to add some depth at this position.

R7. Cory Jackson, FB, 6ft1, 245lbs, 4.70, Maryland

An extremely tough blocker with decent hands. If we are going to be running the ball, lets help Fred-x find the endzone

R7. Ramon Harewood, RT, 6ft6, 353lbs, 5.45, Moorhouse

He won't start as rookie, but has significant upside. You'd need a taxi to get around him and his West Indian sports background makes him a genuine athlete. Won't start as rookie but might be starting by 2011. Unlike Bell, this guy has MASSIVE STRENGTH. Definitely worth carrying on the roster.

Considering the poverty and therefore premium paid on Free Agents this year, 2010 is unlikely to be a winning season especially considering the dramatic changes to playing formation as we will have to improve through the draft. My reasoning for position is as follows

QB: With already a prospect in Brohm, spending a 3rd or 4th on another maybe he won't make it prospect like LeFlevour, Pike or Snead seems we are spreading our developmental abilities too thin. Lets see what we really have in Brohm first

RB: With needs across the roster, Lynch is a backup luxury whose value can be better used elsewhere

OL: Set in the middle, and with a draft pick at LT, I think RT will be by committee next year with Meredith, Bell, Watkins, Scott, and even Ramsey in the mix

WR: Yes the QB needs a target but we also need to see if proper coaching and use will bring the best out of Hardy first before spending another high pick

TE: Nelson, Schoumann, and Stupar are set

DL: The switch means we need to get some 3-4 players in. Hence the high picks on Thomas and Joseph.

LB: 3 Ends transitioning to OLB, 2 ILB who are injury prone. More than anything else we need depth.

DB: As set as any roster might be. No picks should be spent here.

We look to ugrade in the trenches with 4 picks, and also deal with a potential LB issue with 3 picks. 3 skills players only though one of these might be considered a mobile guard. I have gone for athletes who potentially are a reach due to inexperience early, but then tried to go for football intelligent players who lack stopwatch athleticism later as I think these guys are often the more valuable lower draft picks.

I have issues with Campbell because he is so experienced and Im not sure he is still even a 1st Round pick. He may be there at our pick in Round 2. He has a long list of injuries, has only ever played in a ZBS and needs lots and lots of work. Taking him at 9 is way too risky, while I rank him ahead of Davis, I wouldn't take Daivs till Round 2 anyways so that's not saying much.

I dont like taking Cam Thomas in Round 3 let alone Round 2. That is drafting for need and Im not a fan of it, you are taking a guy with 4th Round talent and taking him two rounds early because there is a shortage of viable NT prospects. No thank you, Id rather wait till late and take Travis Ivey of Maryland.

Sean Lee is a good solid pick, not sure if he can handle the SILB anymore than McClain or Poz could but its makes sense both value and need wise, so I like that one.

Id take Arthur Jones or Mike Neal over Joseph but the pick makes sense so Im not going to knock it too much. Just a preference thing.

I love the Batten pick but not as early as you have us taking him, he could be had later in the draft and even if he is gone there is a surplus of young athletic 3-4 OLBs like Junior Galette who will be available later.

Roosevelt and Starks are good solid picks, I need to see Starks run and Im not sure Roosevelt does anything more than Steve Johnson brings but both picks are solid depth moves.

Ryan D'Imperio makes little sense to me, you have Poz, Lee, Mitchell, Buggs, and one or two more guys already at ILB, no need to add another, especially when we are so thin on the DL.

Jackson is a great pick this late, not sure he is still there, Clay Harbor is a great alternative.

I dont think Harewood lasts this late, but I love the value here. Derek Hardeman may be a better option.

kernowboy
02-23-2010, 08:13 AM
I think with LT and NTs there will always be a run on these positions.

Take 2008 when 6 LTs went in R1, or 2009 when NTs like Ron Brace and Terrance Knighton went at least two rounds higher than predicted in any mock.

The problem is just because we might go for highest overall value available doesn't mean other teams won't. What if Joe Haden has the best value - do we draft a CB?

I think we need to temper our highest overall value with best positional value - we have needs at some key positions outside of QB and we cannot leave the draft without a starting LT, a NT capable of starting etc. I mean does Berry replace Byrd? What is the value of Bryant if we have no-one to throw the ball to him, and no-one to keep the thrower vertical. And WRs have the biggest historical bust factor of any position in recent drafts

kernowboy
02-23-2010, 08:21 AM
I'd forgotten about Buggs. Ok with my second R6 pick I would look to draft either

Swanson Miller DE/DT, 6ft4, 300lbs, 5.05 Oklahoma St

or

Brandon Deaderick DE, 6ft4, 295lbs, 5.05 Alabama if he falls.

Mahdi
02-23-2010, 08:23 AM
I think with LT and NTs there will always be a run on these positions.

Take 2008 when 6 LTs went in R1, or 2009 when NTs like Ron Brace and Terrance Knighton went at least two rounds higher than predicted in any mock.

The problem is just because we might go for highest overall value available doesn't mean other teams won't. What if Joe Haden has the best value - do we draft a CB?

I think we need to temper our highest overall value with best positional value - we have needs at some key positions outside of QB and we cannot leave the draft without a starting LT, a NT capable of starting etc. I mean does Berry replace Byrd? What is the value of Bryant if we have no-one to throw the ball to him, and no-one to keep the thrower vertical. And WRs have the biggest historical bust factor of any position in recent drafts
Anyone can bust, the idea is to take the player who has the least chance of bust and the highest chance of greatness.

Bryant and Berry are highly rated prospects, tops of their position class. Davis and Campbell are project players.

Byrd and Berry would start together, Berry SS, Byrd FS.

Bryant on the other side of Evans would be a major help to whatever QB we bring in. Chances are it will be a vet, Brohm or a 3rd round pick by Nix. Either way, it will give our new QB weapons.

I honestly think that Campbell and Davis can be found later in the draft. Berry and Bryant, no way.

Mahdi
02-23-2010, 08:24 AM
I'd forgotten about Buggs. Ok with my second R6 pick I would look to draft either

Swanson Miller DE/DT, 6ft4, 300lbs, 5.05 Oklahoma St

or

Brandon Deadrick DE, 6ft4, 295lbs, 5.05 Alabama if he falls.
Buggs won't likely make it out of camp. He is a really short and light LB and does not fit a 3-4.

THRILLHO
02-23-2010, 08:32 AM
I think we use more than a 1st and 7th on OL. I would bet we use a 1st, 3rd-4th, and a 7th round pick.

THATHURMANATOR
02-23-2010, 09:10 AM
Who is our backup RB in this scenario.

Remember FJ is almost 30.

psubills62
02-23-2010, 09:15 AM
Who is our backup RB in this scenario.

Remember FJ is almost 30.

Probably Starks from UB. Jackson also doesn't have as much wear as most starting RB's do by the time they're 30.

THATHURMANATOR
02-23-2010, 10:26 AM
Probably Starks from UB. Jackson also doesn't have as much wear as most starting RB's do by the time they're 30.
And we would be secure with Starks as the primary backup???? The guy didn't even play college football last year.

Not smart at all.

We can't trade Lynch just to trade him. Makes no sense. The player taken with the 4th rounder in the hypothetical trade above is no where near the player Lynch is. Why bother? Keep him.

DraftBoy
02-23-2010, 10:42 AM
And we would be secure with Starks as the primary backup???? The guy didn't even play college football last year.

Not smart at all.

We can't trade Lynch just to trade him. Makes no sense. The player taken with the 4th rounder in the hypothetical trade above is no where near the player Lynch is. Why bother? Keep him.

Why keep Lynch? You can sign a cheaper backup for his production and with far less headache.

psubills62
02-23-2010, 10:46 AM
And we would be secure with Starks as the primary backup???? The guy didn't even play college football last year.

Not smart at all.

We can't trade Lynch just to trade him. Makes no sense. The player taken with the 4th rounder in the hypothetical trade above is no where near the player Lynch is. Why bother? Keep him.

Backup RB's are a dime a dozen. One injury doesn't mean he'll be horrible. True, he still has to test out at the combine, but he should be fine for his rookie year.

Mahdi
02-23-2010, 10:56 AM
Why keep Lynch? You can sign a cheaper backup for his production and with far less headache.
I think a strong OL would highlight Lynch's strengths and together with Jackson would make a deadly duo.

Lynch's production can be replicated but I don't think his style of play is easily replicated.

I give Lynch a pass because of the games he missed and injuries he had this past year. With an improved OL I think Lynch can return to being a workhorse with Jackson also heavily involved.