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With some Free Agent signings made, and there being very little left until teams start making cuts, I think we can see how this might impact on the draft.
Starting with QB, there are clearly two guys who are head and shoulders above the rest - Bradford and Clausen. For me Clausen is a reach at No9. If he'd stayed for his senior season, he might not have even been a R1 pick in 2011. The other QBs are simply not the saviours we are looking for or better than what we have either due to physical limitations (McCoy, Pike) or a lack of experience in a pro-system (Tebow). Even though Tebow has changed his mechanics, doesn't mean he'd immediately revert to them under pressure plus he hasn't shown any ability to improve his reading of defences or stare down his primary targets.
Despite the signing of Green, LT is still a primary need. Starting calibre guys always go higher on draft day, and there seems little point in drafting players and then placing them in an environment of zero protection - as Buddy Nix said:
ILB seems fixed but there are still concerns at OLB. Whilst Graham and Morgan seem like great selections, I'm not sure the ease with which they would transition to 3-4, we could get bye without them whilst we really need credible pass protection and the fall off to guys like Jerry Hughes and Ricky Sapp is less than the considerable drop off in talent at LT.
Lynch is still the great conundrum. I can see us making a trade and hope it might be with Seattle - if they don't take a RB with either R1 pick and it is possible they will look at their secondary and OL first, then they still need a RB, and picking at No60 might struggle to find a starter, at which point the still young Lynch might be an attractive option.
So I would hope our draft goes positionally like this:
Day1
R1 (9) - Left Tackle
I doubt Okung will fall but would hope Bulaga would be there. If not then Trent Williams, Anthony Davis, and Bruce Campbell should be. All have their weaknesses as well as their strengths, but with teams behind us also wanting OT help, I would be concerned about trading down and losing out on all, in which case I would reach a little and accept some short term growing pains. Personally I'd go Campbell, not because of his combine, but because I think he has the highest potential and by 2011, he'll be at the level of Ryan Clady.
BRUCE CAMPBELL
Day2
R2 (41) - OLB or NT
I guess this depends on how far Terrence Cody falls and whether Jerry Hughes or Ricky Sapp are still available. Cody looks, unlike Andre Smith, that he does want a career in the NFL and has made an effort - you want to see that in your young players. However can the team pass up a OLB talent like Hughes or Sapp? Even if they've gone earlier someone like Koa Misi, Sergio Kindle or Jason Worilds will be available with the latter climbing despite a poor 2009 season.
JERRY HUGHES (fingers crossed)
R2 (60 from Seattle) - NT or OLB
Whilst Worilds could be available the fall off then to someone like Thaddeus Gibson who had a mediocre season but strong ProDay. I would aim for the next big need which is NT and with both Dan Williams and Cody gone, we then consider the next level which is Cam Thomas or Linval Joseph. Both will be considered reaches based on performance, but positional value means they go higher than their best player available analysis would predict. For me, Joseph has the greater athleticism, strength and upside.
LINVAL JOSEPH
R3 (72) - BPA
Here it gets tricky. Is there a QB or WR here who might be better than what we currently have or will they muddy cloudy waters further, by taking away training camp time. Can we rest our laurels on Shawn Nelson being the TE of the future with limited blocking and marginal evidence. Is there a need to get further ILB depth with Mitchell, Posluzny and Davis onboard or should we look for additional OLB help. Are we happy with interior depth on the OL. Personally I would look at two players like to fall due to medical worries - Sean Lee, ILB and Rob Gronkowski TE, a true TE who can effectively block, catch and create mismatches. Additionally he's a Bill fan who want to play for his home team.
ROB GRONKOWSKI TE
Day4
R4 AUSTEN LANE 3-4 DE or 3-4 OLB
At 6ft6, 276lbs he has the size and frame to add another 10-15lbs and be the long term replacement for Marcus Stroud at DE or could drop 15lbs and be a fairly scary OLB
R5 COREY PETERS DL
A 4-3 DT with enough athleticism to move to end at 6ft3, and 301lbs. Quick across the ground too - might add weight to become a rotational NT
R6 JAMES STARKS RB
Depth behind Fred. An injury missed senior season but ran a 4.48 on his Pro-Day and he's someone the Bills have been paying close attention to
R6 (from Eagles) ANDREW TYSHOVNYTSKY OL
Experienced at OT and OG and will provide decent depth for the team. Would need a nickname though
R7 NAAMAN ROOSEVELT WR
A slow Pro-Day time dropped his stock but he has the skills to be our version of Pierre Garcon
R7 RAMON HAREWOOD OL
Very inexperienced but athletic due his cricket/rugby background and he is huge at 6ft6, 353lbs. Ironically some think he might not be drafted because he is too intelligent and therefore might not have a passion for the game required which is remarkable (and ridiculous). A replacement for Green in a couple of years time or a brick wall if moved inside
I haven't drafted a QB because I don't think outside of Bradford and Clausen that anyone in this draft offers any more than Brohm and Edwards.
I would have each get 50% of the snaps under the tution of Gailey and Cortez until a winner emerges. If they fail during the season we use our No1 pick in 2011 on a QB. It is arguable that a number of contenders in this deeper draft will be better than Clausen. What is not arguable is that if we put Bradford or Clausen behind our current LT, he'll start the season on IR.
Starting with QB, there are clearly two guys who are head and shoulders above the rest - Bradford and Clausen. For me Clausen is a reach at No9. If he'd stayed for his senior season, he might not have even been a R1 pick in 2011. The other QBs are simply not the saviours we are looking for or better than what we have either due to physical limitations (McCoy, Pike) or a lack of experience in a pro-system (Tebow). Even though Tebow has changed his mechanics, doesn't mean he'd immediately revert to them under pressure plus he hasn't shown any ability to improve his reading of defences or stare down his primary targets.
Despite the signing of Green, LT is still a primary need. Starting calibre guys always go higher on draft day, and there seems little point in drafting players and then placing them in an environment of zero protection - as Buddy Nix said:
"It's hard to throw when you're lying on your back."
The question must be - WILL THE BILLS EMPHASISE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE LIKE THE LIONS, OR POSITIONAL VALUE LIKE PIOLI DOES WITH CHIEFS?
Whilst we are still short at WR, a major piece missing is NT and considering the new defence, I cannot see us going with Kyle Williams or Lonnie Harvey - well I hope we don't anyway. Signing Edwards has however lessened the need for a Day1 DE.
Whilst we are still short at WR, a major piece missing is NT and considering the new defence, I cannot see us going with Kyle Williams or Lonnie Harvey - well I hope we don't anyway. Signing Edwards has however lessened the need for a Day1 DE.
ILB seems fixed but there are still concerns at OLB. Whilst Graham and Morgan seem like great selections, I'm not sure the ease with which they would transition to 3-4, we could get bye without them whilst we really need credible pass protection and the fall off to guys like Jerry Hughes and Ricky Sapp is less than the considerable drop off in talent at LT.
Lynch is still the great conundrum. I can see us making a trade and hope it might be with Seattle - if they don't take a RB with either R1 pick and it is possible they will look at their secondary and OL first, then they still need a RB, and picking at No60 might struggle to find a starter, at which point the still young Lynch might be an attractive option.
So I would hope our draft goes positionally like this:
Day1
R1 (9) - Left Tackle
I doubt Okung will fall but would hope Bulaga would be there. If not then Trent Williams, Anthony Davis, and Bruce Campbell should be. All have their weaknesses as well as their strengths, but with teams behind us also wanting OT help, I would be concerned about trading down and losing out on all, in which case I would reach a little and accept some short term growing pains. Personally I'd go Campbell, not because of his combine, but because I think he has the highest potential and by 2011, he'll be at the level of Ryan Clady.
BRUCE CAMPBELL
Day2
R2 (41) - OLB or NT
I guess this depends on how far Terrence Cody falls and whether Jerry Hughes or Ricky Sapp are still available. Cody looks, unlike Andre Smith, that he does want a career in the NFL and has made an effort - you want to see that in your young players. However can the team pass up a OLB talent like Hughes or Sapp? Even if they've gone earlier someone like Koa Misi, Sergio Kindle or Jason Worilds will be available with the latter climbing despite a poor 2009 season.
JERRY HUGHES (fingers crossed)
R2 (60 from Seattle) - NT or OLB
Whilst Worilds could be available the fall off then to someone like Thaddeus Gibson who had a mediocre season but strong ProDay. I would aim for the next big need which is NT and with both Dan Williams and Cody gone, we then consider the next level which is Cam Thomas or Linval Joseph. Both will be considered reaches based on performance, but positional value means they go higher than their best player available analysis would predict. For me, Joseph has the greater athleticism, strength and upside.
LINVAL JOSEPH
R3 (72) - BPA
Here it gets tricky. Is there a QB or WR here who might be better than what we currently have or will they muddy cloudy waters further, by taking away training camp time. Can we rest our laurels on Shawn Nelson being the TE of the future with limited blocking and marginal evidence. Is there a need to get further ILB depth with Mitchell, Posluzny and Davis onboard or should we look for additional OLB help. Are we happy with interior depth on the OL. Personally I would look at two players like to fall due to medical worries - Sean Lee, ILB and Rob Gronkowski TE, a true TE who can effectively block, catch and create mismatches. Additionally he's a Bill fan who want to play for his home team.
ROB GRONKOWSKI TE
Day4
R4 AUSTEN LANE 3-4 DE or 3-4 OLB
At 6ft6, 276lbs he has the size and frame to add another 10-15lbs and be the long term replacement for Marcus Stroud at DE or could drop 15lbs and be a fairly scary OLB
R5 COREY PETERS DL
A 4-3 DT with enough athleticism to move to end at 6ft3, and 301lbs. Quick across the ground too - might add weight to become a rotational NT
R6 JAMES STARKS RB
Depth behind Fred. An injury missed senior season but ran a 4.48 on his Pro-Day and he's someone the Bills have been paying close attention to
R6 (from Eagles) ANDREW TYSHOVNYTSKY OL
Experienced at OT and OG and will provide decent depth for the team. Would need a nickname though
R7 NAAMAN ROOSEVELT WR
A slow Pro-Day time dropped his stock but he has the skills to be our version of Pierre Garcon
R7 RAMON HAREWOOD OL
Very inexperienced but athletic due his cricket/rugby background and he is huge at 6ft6, 353lbs. Ironically some think he might not be drafted because he is too intelligent and therefore might not have a passion for the game required which is remarkable (and ridiculous). A replacement for Green in a couple of years time or a brick wall if moved inside
I haven't drafted a QB because I don't think outside of Bradford and Clausen that anyone in this draft offers any more than Brohm and Edwards.
I would have each get 50% of the snaps under the tution of Gailey and Cortez until a winner emerges. If they fail during the season we use our No1 pick in 2011 on a QB. It is arguable that a number of contenders in this deeper draft will be better than Clausen. What is not arguable is that if we put Bradford or Clausen behind our current LT, he'll start the season on IR.
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