Player's stock rising/falling

[jamze132]

Seriously? Did the guy miss a tackle yesterday that is making everyone think twice about him now? Did he seriously just rush for 100 yards and 3 TDs yesterday?


I just love it when I read about a player's stock rising or falling about a month out of the draft. I totally understand if an injury or a character issue pops into play but to just base it off of tape from the previous season, I don't get it. And I understand the argument for players rising and falling right after the combine depending on their performance. I understand BS media reports from certain teams or whatnot to make a player they really want fall to their spot, but I just don't understand how a certain player isn't considered what he was a couple of months ago when absolutely nothing changed.

It's draftnicks thinking too much and trying to sound cool. Sorry, you sound like a ****ing tool.

[Night Train]

So Clausen isn't rising, even though Thurm wants him and several people honor his greatness in their avatar ?

Hmm..I have to go back and re-think this whole draft.

Thanks.

[X-Era]

Seriously? Did the guy miss a tackle yesterday that is making everyone think twice about him now? Did he seriously just rush for 100 yards and 3 TDs yesterday?


I just love it when I read about a player's stock rising or falling about a month out of the draft. I totally understand if an injury or a character issue pops into play but to just base it off of tape from the previous season, I don't get it. And I understand the argument for players rising and falling right after the combine depending on their performance. I understand BS media reports from certain teams or whatnot to make a player they really want fall to their spot, but I just don't understand how a certain player isn't considered what he was a couple of months ago when absolutely nothing changed.

It's draftnicks thinking too much and trying to sound cool. Sorry, you sound like a ****ing tool.

So, I can see that some draftnicks adjust their rankings throughout the process as new information comes in. To me, unless something drastic happens, the adjustment shouldn't be too far up or down. If your talking about McClain, having a disease such as Crohn's may be a consideration for some teams. It can cause a drop in rank to some.

I think some rising and falling is warranted. Erik Flowers type of rising is not warranted, IMO.

I agree that the board should be fully formed for each team, and that their shouldn't be any major moves now.

[DraftBoy]

I think you're both (Jamze and X) over simplifying it and I have plenty of examples from this year alone to prove just how fluid the process and is and should be, from a draftnik point of view.

Three weeks ago Kareem Jackson was a 2nd Round pick, Devin McCourtney was a late 2nd, potentially 3rd rounder, and Patrick Robinson was being touted as potentially the best CB in the class. Now fast forward to today and we know that there are lots of whispers about 4 CB's going in Round 1 (Wilson, McCourtney, Jackson, and Haden), Robinson has fallen way off, Arenas is seeing by teams as more valuable for his return skills than his cover ability right now and a player like Brandon Ghee, Sydquan Thompson, AOA, Trevard Lindley are quietly and patiently awaiting to see where they fall. We didn't know all of this three weeks ago, if the boards were set as you both indicate this kind of movement wouldn't of occured. So why did it occur?

Well its based on last years game tape, but its more based on workouts, and I dont mean pro days. These teams get 60, 15 minute interviews at the combine and I wanna say 30 personal workouts at their complex (Ing, can you verify?). In that time you get to pick a players mind and really see what happens. For instance Daniel Jeremiah told a story in one of his podcasts about a in house workout of a QB where you give him a mini playbook let him study it for 15 mins, then have him leave to meet somebody else for an hour or two and have him come back and see what he can identify based on film and the playbook. That's the kind of stuff that moves these kids up. Or down for instance, when a kid reveals that he has smoked marijuana in the past and popped positive, or when an injury comes out (yesterday UT RB Mario Hardesty revealed he had had microfacture surgery), or just hasd a ****ty interview because they are viewed as being entitled (Rolando McClain, is one who is rumored to be having that issue).

Draft boards have a very good base right now, but I dont think they are quite set, at least I would hope not. We have a month till the draft, so much can happen and can be learned. Hell the top two QB's right now haven't even thrown yet, how can anybody have them set without knowing how their potential injuries will affect their abilities or if either/both is fully recovered?

Going off last years tape I think helps smaller school prospects move up (ex. Arthur Moats-JMU) who have good workouts and then a GM or area scout wants to review the tape they may have not had time to do before.

Just my opinion, but Im definitely one of the tools.

[OpIv37]

?

Well its based on last years game tape, but its more based on workouts, and I dont mean pro days. These teams get 60, 15 minute interviews at the combine and I wanna say 30 personal workouts at their complex (Ing, can you verify?). In that time you get to pick a players mind and really see what happens. For instance Daniel Jeremiah told a story in one of his podcasts about a in house workout of a QB where you give him a mini playbook let him study it for 15 mins, then have him leave to meet somebody else for an hour or two and have him come back and see what he can identify based on film and the playbook. That's the kind of stuff that moves these kids up. Or down for instance, when a kid reveals that he has smoked marijuana in the past and popped positive, or when an injury comes out (yesterday UT RB Mario Hardesty revealed he had had microfacture surgery), or just hasd a ****ty interview because they are viewed as being entitled (Rolando McClain, is one who is rumored to be having that issue).



But these individual workouts are private, for each team, correct? So, I could see how that could affect the individual team's draft board, but how could it possibly affect what the draft "experts" are saying? Are the results of these workouts made public?

I understand that there will be some changes, but be cautious with anyone who rises too fast.

[Pinkerton Security]

Draftboy I can agree with your post above, but for first or 2nd round prospects who are moving up or down in any significant way based only on workouts, it seems kinda ridiculous to me (aka the Vernon Gholston effect). However, then we see the anti-Vernon Gholston, the Vernon Davis effect, as he is now a stud...so I guess all im saying is that, for the most part, production combined with your rankings at the end of the season are generally pretty good indicators of your pro potential.

[Pinkerton Security]

But these individual workouts are private, for each team, correct? So, I could see how that could affect the individual team's draft board, but how could it possibly affect what the draft "experts" are saying? Are the results of these workouts made public?

I understand that there will be some changes, but be cautious with anyone who rises too fast.

good work Op, this is basically what I was trying to say haha.

[k-oneputt]

How did everyone's glory boy qb, Lefevour do yesterday ?

[BillsWin]

How did everyone's glory boy qb, Lefevour do yesterday ?

Not so well from what I've heard.

[k-oneputt]

I heard he had trouble with arm strength and throwing downfield. Not a combo for the Ralph.

[DraftBoy]

But these individual workouts are private, for each team, correct? So, I could see how that could affect the individual team's draft board, but how could it possibly affect what the draft "experts" are saying? Are the results of these workouts made public?

I understand that there will be some changes, but be cautious with anyone who rises too fast.

Yes and no, infortmation does come out. For example...

You won't see anywhere (except on Draft Nasty) that Jacksonville's DL coach personally flew down to Athens a week before their pro day to run DT Jeff Owens through drills. Spent a couple of hours with him talking to him as well. He was told by them they like him as a fit next to John Henderson and that they are looking at him higher than some teams. According to his agent he thinks they may jump on him in Round 2.

Now how do I know all of that? Because people talk, just like how I know despite myself not thinking Owens is a fit as a 3-4 NT prospect, the Jets think he very well could be one and he went up there this past week for a workout and tour of their complex. Same with Reshad Jones and the Miami Dolphins, who came up to work him out and then he went down to visit them.

Information does come out, and some of it is true and some is false. You have to know what is smoke and what is fire.

Be cautious if a guy rises from a big time school and goes from like 5th-1st round, but a small school guy rising, guys jumping a round or 2, that does raise red flags for me traditionally speaking. That's just general moving. I can't think of a guy right now who has jumped huge amounts in my rankings.

[THATHURMANATOR]

So Clausen isn't rising, even though Thurm wants him and several people honor his greatness in their avatar ?

Hmm..I have to go back and re-think this whole draft.

Thanks.
**** that ****. I am no gay Draftnick. I want a QB for this team FINALLY..

[DraftBoy]

Draftboy I can agree with your post above, but for first or 2nd round prospects who are moving up or down in any significant way based only on workouts, it seems kinda ridiculous to me (aka the Vernon Gholston effect). However, then we see the anti-Vernon Gholston, the Vernon Davis effect, as he is now a stud...so I guess all im saying is that, for the most part, production combined with your rankings at the end of the season are generally pretty good indicators of your pro potential.

They are but some guys move up and some move down. That's the nature of this game and its not just based on workouts thats what Im trying to stress here. You guys are taking too narrow of a view. Injuries, character revelations, football IQ tests, and interviews will affect these kids stock.

Daniel Jeremiah said in one of his podcasts that when the Ravens brought in Pacman Jones for an interview at the combine they asked him to rate his hands. He looked at his left one and said "10" and then looked at his right one and said "10". That kind of swagger and ego will turn some teams off quick and he'll drop on their boards while others will like it and they may raise him some or keep him where they have him.

[DraftBoy]

**** that ****. I am no gay Draftnick. I want a QB for this team FINALLY..

That hurts Thurm

:sadwalk:

[DraftBoy]

I heard he had trouble with arm strength and throwing downfield. Not a combo for the Ralph.

Completed 53 of 60, showed good footwork and ability to throw across his body according to the report below. What source reported counter?

http://www.themorningsun.com/articles/2010/03/24/sports/doc4baa817870f38434111629.txt

I do know he was not completely happy with the workout, but he doesnt think he hurt himself and nobody is reporting that it any way negatively affected his stock that Ive seen, but I havent checked a ton yet. Looks like another ho-hum workout, nothing special, nothing horrible.

[psubills62]

Completed 53 of 60, showed good footwork and ability to throw across his body according to the report below. What source reported counter?

http://www.themorningsun.com/articles/2010/03/24/sports/doc4baa817870f38434111629.txt

I do know he was not completely happy with the workout, but he doesnt think he hurt himself and nobody is reporting that it any way negatively affected his stock that Ive seen, but I havent checked a ton yet. Looks like another ho-hum workout, nothing special, nothing horrible.


After speaking to officials from five teams on hand, NFL Network's Mike Mayock reports that Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour demonstrated "average" ability at his Wednesday Pro Day.

LeFevour struggled to throw spirals, his ball "wobbled" too much, and evaluators came away saying the four-year starter is merely a "fourth- or fifth-round quarterback." As suspected, LeFevour isn't a big-time prospect.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=NFL&id=5809


Opinions are mixed on the throwing workout of quarterback Dan LeFevour. His short and intermediate passes were solid but LeFevour struggled throwing the ball downfield. Receivers were slowing up in their routes to catch the ball and in some instances out-running LeFevour’s deep passes altogether. One of the participants told us LeFevour had been throwing the ball well in the practices leading up to the pro-day workout and may have been a little to pumped up once the lights went on for pro-day.

http://www.draftinsider.net/blog/?p=1588

[Nighthawk]

The draft is the #1 overthought thing in all of professional sports.

[DraftBoy]

The draft is the #1 overthought thing in all of professional sports.

Of course it is, its also one of the most (if not the most) important thing in professional sports.

[THATHURMANATOR]

That hurts Thurm

:sadwalk:
You are more of a guru DB!!! I assumed he meant part time guy. You are full time.

:hi5:

[DraftBoy]

You are more of a guru DB!!! I assumed he meant part time guy. You are full time.

:hi5:

Thank you for clearing that up then for me!

If I come up for the home opener this year, Ill owe you a beer. We'll put it on Lecter's tab.

[k-oneputt]

Completed 53 of 60, showed good footwork and ability to throw across his body according to the report below. What source reported counter?

http://www.themorningsun.com/articles/2010/03/24/sports/doc4baa817870f38434111629.txt

I do know he was not completely happy with the workout, but he doesnt think he hurt himself and nobody is reporting that it any way negatively affected his stock that Ive seen, but I havent checked a ton yet. Looks like another ho-hum workout, nothing special, nothing horrible.

Can we put the Lefevour to/for the Bills to rest now . ? His skill set and arm was never a good match for what the Bills need or are looking for, but I know he looked good on ESPN against bad MAC teams.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Thank you for clearing that up then for me!

If I come up for the home opener this year, Ill owe you a beer. We'll put it on Lecter's tab.
Sounds good to me!!! :hi5:

[TigerJ]

Seriously? Did the guy miss a tackle yesterday that is making everyone think twice about him now? Did he seriously just rush for 100 yards and 3 TDs yesterday?


I just love it when I read about a player's stock rising or falling about a month out of the draft. I totally understand if an injury or a character issue pops into play but to just base it off of tape from the previous season, I don't get it. And I understand the argument for players rising and falling right after the combine depending on their performance. I understand BS media reports from certain teams or whatnot to make a player they really want fall to their spot, but I just don't understand how a certain player isn't considered what he was a couple of months ago when absolutely nothing changed.

It's draftnicks thinking too much and trying to sound cool. Sorry, you sound like a ****ing tool.With no really new information to consider, draft pundits are stuck re-analyzing old information over and over again. That results in overanalysis, and constant second guessing of earlier conclusions.

[Spiderweb]

With no really new information to consider, draft pundits are stuck re-analyzing old information over and over again. That results in overanalysis, and constant second guessing of earlier conclusions.

Thankfully Nix has already said he likes "football players" not work out warriors. I took this a very refreshing, given the number of reaches the Bills have had in the past decade or so.

[X-Era]

Three weeks ago Kareem Jackson was a 2nd Round pick, Devin McCourtney was a late 2nd, potentially 3rd rounder, and Patrick Robinson was being touted as potentially the best CB in the class. Now fast forward to today and we know that there are lots of whispers about 4 CB's going in Round 1 (Wilson, McCourtney, Jackson, and Haden), Robinson has fallen way off, Arenas is seeing by teams as more valuable for his return skills than his cover ability right now and a player like Brandon Ghee, Sydquan Thompson, AOA, Trevard Lindley are quietly and patiently awaiting to see where they fall. We didn't know all of this three weeks ago, if the boards were set as you both indicate this kind of movement wouldn't of occured. So why did it occur?

Im not so sure that this example or rising and falling is from NFL teams rather than draft fans like us. You and Ing both pointed out that the boards should be pretty much set by the combine anyways. I agree. McCourty has steadily risen since the start of the season. I think teams will hype players to some degree, but usually not several round jumps. McCourty looked very good throughout the year and his stock climbed during all of it. The Bills allowed hype to rule them when the took Flowres out of Arizona State, due, in part, by his 4 sack Senior Bowl. Thats an example of why I dont think teams should be moving players that much. I think the entire body of work, and especially the on the field play should do the talking, not workouts in shorts.


Well its based on last years game tape, but its more based on workouts, and I dont mean pro days. These teams get 60, 15 minute interviews at the combine and I wanna say 30 personal workouts at their complex (Ing, can you verify?). In that time you get to pick a players mind and really see what happens. For instance Daniel Jeremiah told a story in one of his podcasts about a in house workout of a QB where you give him a mini playbook let him study it for 15 mins, then have him leave to meet somebody else for an hour or two and have him come back and see what he can identify based on film and the playbook. That's the kind of stuff that moves these kids up. Or down for instance, when a kid reveals that he has smoked marijuana in the past and popped positive, or when an injury comes out (yesterday UT RB Mario Hardesty revealed he had had microfacture surgery), or just hasd a ****ty interview because they are viewed as being entitled (Rolando McClain, is one who is rumored to be having that issue).

So, I agree that medical evals, and interviews can affect status... Especially the medical side. Thats an area where you may not get the information you need (fully) until you meet them face to face, and have your doctors look at them. To me, thats a legit reason to move someone up or down.


Draft boards have a very good base right now, but I dont think they are quite set, at least I would hope not. We have a month till the draft, so much can happen and can be learned. Hell the top two QB's right now haven't even thrown yet, how can anybody have them set without knowing how their potential injuries will affect their abilities or if either/both is fully recovered?


I think a player like AP may make this case. A few days before the draft, his stock started to drop, and he potentially could have dropped to us. I do agree its fluid. But I dont think we should be seeing multi-round rising and falling.

[jamze132]

With no really new information to consider, draft pundits are stuck re-analyzing old information over and over again. That results in overanalysis, and constant second guessing of earlier conclusions.
I couldn't agree more.

[Buddo]

I think there's also an element where teams want a little bit more time to evaluate, especially in respect of the juniors, whose tape they don't get access to until they are formally confirmed 'declared' I believe. The part about work outs confirming, good or bad points, is also fair.
I think you can also see situations where guys drop, or move up, boards, when they are decided to be a good 'fit' for one system or another, especially when thinking D these days.
We could still see some pretty dramatic change, if Bradford doesn't throw well on Monday.