Signs Pointing Away From OT In The 1st

[JCBills]

Buddy Nix's draft history doesn't suggest they'll be looking OT, or OL at all.

1993-2000 - Bills Regional Scout
2001-2007 - Chargers Assistant GM
2009 - Bills National Scout

During that span, the teams Nix was scouting / overseeing draft decisions for has taken two OL in the 1st round. Reuben Brown in 1995 and Eric Wood in 2009.

Same with Whaley. He was a major scout for Pittsburgh for 10 years, and the Steelers have only taken one OL in the 1st, Kendall Simmons.

One source I found said Whaley had been with Pittsburgh for 11 years, but most of them said 10. If you look at it from 11, they did take Faneca in the first in 98.

Below is taken from a post on BBMB:


Take a look at the last 5 Super Bowl winning teams... The Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts and Patriots. Q: What is one thing they all have in common? A: A great QB... Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

The other thing they all have in common is that they don't spend 1st Round picks on OL. Take all 25 of the current starting O-Linemen from those 5 teams and only 1 of them was selected in the 1st Round! Only 1 out of 25! The only OL out of the 25 that was taken in the 1st Round was Logan Mankins, and he was taken with the last pick in the 1st Round(32) which is practically a 2nd. Also he was considered a reach by every single analyst in the USA. No one had him rated that high.

Here are the current starting O-Lines for the last 5 Super Bowl Winning Teams:

Saints:
LT: Jermon Bushrod (4th)
LG: Carl Nicks (5th)
C: Jonathan Goodwin (5th)
RG: Jahri Evans (4th)
RT: Jon Stinchcomb (2nd)

Steelers:
LT: Max Starks (3rd)
LG: Chris Kemoeatu (6th)
C: Justin Hartwig (6th)
RG: Trai Essex (3rd)
RT: Willie Colon (4th)

Giants:
LT: David Diehl (5th)
LG: Rich Seubert (Undrafted)
C: Shaun O'Hara (Undrafted)
RG: Chris Snee (2nd)
RT: Kareem McKenzie (3rd)

Colts:
LT: Charlie Johnson (6th)
LG: Ryan Lilja (Undrafted)
C: Jeff Saturday (Undrafted)
RG: Mike Pollack (2nd)
RT: Ryan Diem (4th)

Patriots:
LT: Matt Light (2nd)
LG: Logan Mankins (1st)
C: Dan Koppen (5th)
RG: Stephen Neal (Undrafted)
RT: Nick Kaczur (3rd)

Add it all up:
1st Round OL: 1
2nd Round OL: 4
3rd Round OL: 4
4th Round OL: 4
5th Round OL: 4
6th Round OL: 3
7th Round OL: 0
Undrafted OL: 5

We'll say the Undrafted OL were taken in the 8th Round. Now add it all up, divide that number by 25 and the average OL on the last 5 Super Bowl winning teams was Drafted in the middle of the 4th Round!!! (4.6 to be exact) That's amazing!!!

The only team out of the 5 that I would consider to have a great Line is the Giants. Look at the Giants... The highest they Drafted an OL was the 2nd Round(Chris Snee). They're very similar to the Colts. They both have a QB named Manning & they both have great DEs that can pressure the opposing teams QB. Now look at both Mannings' O-Lines... Neither team has a Tackle Drafted higher than the 3rd Round(3rd, 4th, 5th & 6th), both their RGs were taken in the 2nd Round, and both their Centers and Left Guard went Undrafted.

[ServoBillieves]

Let me look up D-Line numbers then I'll get back to ya...

[Dying_-2-_Live]

Excellent post
What Ive been saying for some time

[YardRat]

Nice research.

Indy and Polian, though, were somewhat vocal around the playoffs about their need to upgrade their o-line if I remember correctly.

[mark1126]

Thats great research and stats, very analytical and informative...thats really useful insight...thanks alot!

[JCBills]

Let me look up D-Line numbers then I'll get back to ya...

Oh they weren't shy about looking DL/LB in the 1st, and a good amount of OL between the 2nd and 5th.

[Goobylal]

While interesting, it means nothing. There is a need for LT and if there's value at the spot, they'll take one. Their other need is NT, but that's not a value position at 9, unless someone unexpectedly drops (Suh or McCoy).

[NOT THE DUDE...]

there going to take graham or morgan...

[justasportsfan]

Nix IMO will go best player available on their board.

[JCBills]

Let me look up D-Line numbers then I'll get back to ya...
The Steelers took Hampton in the 1st, in the 2nd and 3rd, it's been mostly OL and DEs. Since 1999, they have taken 3 OTs in the 3rd and 1 in the 2nd. Also a good amount of OLBs / ILBs / DBs / WRs. We're pretty set on DBs, but WR is still a possibility.

Similar case with the Chargers. Nix has built the lines after the 1st round, with Luis Castillo the only DE taken in the 1st under him.

[ServoBillieves]

Oh they weren't shy about looking DL/LB in the 1st, and a good amount of OL between the 2nd and 5th.

Oh I am in no way shape or form degrading the stats you put, it's true that most SB teams don't have 1st round talent on the line (obviously saying that 1st round talent is overrated).

I'm saying that the trenches are always where the battle is won. I'm in the middle of the research, (again, not trying to prove you wrong), and trying to figure out where the talent really comes from. No one knows how a draft pick will turn out, they only know how they're "supposed" to turn out.

This just sparked my imagination as to where D-Lineman have come from in the draft.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

we are going to take rodger saffold or ducasse in the 2nd....

[JCBills]

Oh I am in no way shape or form degrading the stats you put, it's true that most SB teams don't have 1st round talent on the line (obviously saying that 1st round talent is overrated).

I'm saying that the trenches are always where the battle is won. I'm in the middle of the research, (again, not trying to prove you wrong), and trying to figure out where the talent really comes from. No one knows how a draft pick will turn out, they only know how they're "supposed" to turn out.

This just sparked my imagination as to where D-Lineman have come from in the draft.

I didn't take it as degradation haha it was more just an addition to what I was saying. The quoted %s and such weren't put together by me, they were taken from BBMB as stated.

I agree the trenches are where the game is won, but both teams have looked for impact players at positions of need over the years in the 1st. Not that much DL in the 1st though. They do like their 1st-2nd round OLBs too. Both have taken QBs in the 1st, but I'm not sure it's the first thing they'll do here. Hopefully we can move back, snag an impact LOLB, and then look OT/NT on day two.

[SABURZFAN]

that's nice and all but great QB's aren't available in FA pickup. for those of you who think the Bills should take a QB in the 1st round this year, ask yourself this. do any of these QB's appear destine to be a great QB in the NFL?


i didn't think so.

[JCBills]

that's nice and all but great QB's aren't available in FA pickup. for those of you who think the Bills should take a QB in the 1st round this year, ask yourself this. do any of these QB's appear destine to be a great QB in the NFL?


i didn't think so.

Who's talking about QBs? I noted they both have taken QBs in the 1st, that's about it..

[BillsWin]

For what its worth I have heard rumblings that Chan really likes Clausen. There's not only a mutual respect, but also a vote of confidence in Clausen's abilities from Gailey.

Now the Bills would never let something like this leak out because if they really do want Clausen they need to make teams ahead of them like the Browns and Skins think that there really is no heat on Clausen.

If Clausen does slip, it is looking more and more like he is the pick at nine. At least in my eyes, based on what I have read, seen and heard.

Not guaranteeing it, but don't be surprised if Gailey and/or Nix come out and say he was their guy all along.

[BillsWin]

As for the original thread topic, I don't see us going offensive line in round one, just because I think the best left tackles will be gone, and there is some solid depth in this draft to be had in rounds two, three and four.

[JCBills]

Lol how does everyone stack ZB so quickly? ><

[SABURZFAN]

Who's talking about QBs? I noted they both have taken QBs in the 1st, that's about it..


i was refering to the jobbers who holler Clausen and Tebow all the time. if i was refering to you, i would have quoted you. now pull your panties out of your crack and breathe easily.

[JCBills]

i was refering to the jobbers who holler Clausen and Tebow all the time. if i was refering to you, i would have quoted you. now pull your panties out of your crack and breathe easily.

LOL ease up there chiefnuts, your post was just way off-topic.

[jamze132]

Most of those teams you mentioned as not taking O-line in RD1 usually aren't picking in the top 10 every year like we are, therefore most of the elite LTs in the draft are off the board before their 1st pick is up. Just sayin'.

[JCBills]

Most of those teams you mentioned as not taking O-line in RD1 usually aren't picking in the top 10 every year like we are, therefore most of the elite LTs in the draft are off the board before their 1st pick is up. Just sayin'.

For a long time the Chargers were.

[SeatownBillsFan21]

Draft some fing talent because we have NONE

[patmoran2006]

I think every team differs...

For example, how many of those last 5 SB teams had a LT situation as bad as Demetrius Bell and/or Jamon Meredith?

Im not saying or even advocating that we'll take a LT with the 9th pick. Honestly, I dont even know who I want right now.

[Night Train]

IF the Bills stick to BPA ( at a position of Need ), then the Top 9 has 3 LT's staring us right in the face.

The unknown is whether one will still be there after the 1st 8 selections. If one is, he's probably the pick.. unless we receive a very good offer to trade down and pick up extra picks.

[X-Era]

I don't think for a minute that its a lock for us to go OT at 9, nor should it be. We should be taking the BPA at a position of need (and we have plenty), and if we cant do that, we should take the BPA regardless or try to trade down.

[YardRat]

The two teams that lost in their conference championship games...

Minnesota - 2 #1's, a #2, #6 and UDFA.
NY Jets - 4 #1's and UDFA.

6 of 10 are #1's, 7 second round or higher.

[tampabay25690]

Props nice fine.
Could be a true fact if thats the case the BILLS take the best available at #9....

[Novacane]

For what its worth I have heard rumblings that Chan really likes Clausen. There's not only a mutual respect, but also a vote of confidence in Clausen's abilities from Gailey.

Now the Bills would never let something like this leak out because if they really do want Clausen they need to make teams ahead of them like the Browns and Skins think that there really is no heat on Clausen.

If Clausen does slip, it is looking more and more like he is the pick at nine. At least in my eyes, based on what I have read, seen and heard.

Not guaranteeing it, but don't be surprised if Gailey and/or Nix come out and say he was their guy all along.



That does not make a lot of sense. First I agree the Bills would not let it leak out. If you are hearing rumblings it has leaked out. That would make it more likely they are just blowing smoke to get teams of the trail of who they really like wouldn't it? Why would the Skins and Browns care if the Bills like Clausen? If they want him they will take him before us whether the BIlls like him or not.

[SABURZFAN]

LOL ease up there chiefnuts, your post was just way off-topic.


no it's not. the original post includes the names of QB's who have taken their teams to Super Bowls. i counter that the Draft and FA does not have a QB of that caliber. after you mentioned "Who's talking QB?", the following post mentions Clausen by some other poster. there's only TWO primary things this board mentions when it comes to this football team. OL and QB. since this thread is about the possibility of not drafting an OT in the 1st round, the sheep around here will cry Clausen and Tebow all day.

[TedMock]

we are going to take rodger saffold or ducasse in the 2nd....

This is my thinking too. Well, sort of. I like Saffold and I still think Charles Brown can fall to us. Either guy is a good pick early in round two. Ducasse seems bust material to me. I watched whatever I could get my hands on (which admittedly isn't a ton), but I can't get comfy with him. Saffold and Brown, I do like.

[Griff]

Why post the current line ups? shouldn't their Super Bowl winning line up be what matters?

[Don't Panic]

Bulaga if he's there (because he is a great value at #9), Dan Williams otherwise. I like the point JC, but each draft is its own unique animal.

[NOT THE DUDE...]

If bradford clausen or tebow are there at 9, we are taking a qb. if none of those top 3 qbs are there, we will take a LT or OLB/DE

[alohabillsfan]

I believe great QB's make age lines exceptional, additionally, poor QB play leads to crappy oline play! THE QB makes the difference IMO