patmoran2006
04-16-2010, 09:57 AM
This is long. . Cut and pasted the entire article.
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Before beginning I should make something abundantly clear; I am not a fan of mock drafts. Sure, they’re entertaining to put together at the time and guaranteed to spark endless debate, but in general when you look back years from now the only thing that gets mocked is the person who pieced it all together.
The other day I took a look back at 2006 when I was a featured blogger for FoxSports.com. On March 2 of that year I compiled a three round mock and found some of these “gems” I wrote at the time.
In the first round I had the Bills taking Broderick Bunkley and scribed “If he keeps his head on straight he has the physical ability to be a younger Warren Sapp.” I then had Buffalo going with guard Charles Spencer in round two, citing he could start at left guard from day one. I capped it off with a pair of third round picks, tabbing Roger McIntosh as “insurance for Takeo Spikes” and quarterback Omar Jacobs, going as far to label him as the “steal of the draft.”
No seriously, I did. I called Omar Jacobs the steal of the draft. Ah, the things us mock drafters leave ourselves open for.
(In my defense, I didn’t have Donte Whitner going until the first pick of round two and didn’t have John McCargo slotted in the first three rounds at all; though I did project Ko Simpson going in round two and most laughably, Ashton Youboty going to Kansas City with the 20<SUP>th</SUP> overall pick)
Needless to say, since I don’t make a living scouting college prospects and putting together draft boards, I’m not exactly keen on giving critics further ammunition to open an entire case of whoop-ass on me. I do plenty well on that front already without the need for a mock draft.
But things have changed in the past few years. I’m now the publisher of Buffalo Sports Daily and since I write so much about the Bills, I suppose throwing my name into the mock draft hat comes with the territory. I’ve received several emails in recent days asking for my opinions on who the Bills will take April 22-24 and how I see the draft playing out as a whole.
The following is your answer. I present my 2010 NFL Mock draft—well the first 41 picks anyway. Assuming I’m dead wrong upon reflection in a couple of years, I hope I still share the same sense of humor you do.
One last warning; if you’re a Buffalo Bills fan (if you’re reading Buffalo Sports Daily I suspect you are—you probably won’t like this. It’s not a sexy mock for Bills fans)
Without further ado.
1 St. Louis Rams- Sam Bradford, QB (Oklahoma): I’m not going to write a lot about the first four picks because from what I’ve seen, they are universal. The Rams have to start over with the potential franchise quarterback. I do think they would love to get blown away with a trade offer from a team moving up to this spot, but I don’t see Cleveland (the prime candidate) having the ammo to move this high.
2 Detroit Lions- Ndamukong Suh, DT (Nebraska): Gerald McCoy may be a better fit and Russell Okung is perhaps a more pressing need, but I don’t see any way the Lions pass on the player most (including myself) consider the best in the draft. Detroit on paper has gotten a lot better in the past few months.
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT (Oklahoma): Don’t really need to tell you t they look at him as their next Warren Sapp (as I did Bunkley in 2006). Eric Berry may warrant consideration but in the end it’s going to be McCoy.
4 Washington Redskins- Russell Okung, OT (Oklahoma State): If the Redskins aren’t announcing this pick about 10 seconds into being on the clock, it’s because they are listening to offers to move down. Assuming they keep the pick, Okung is a complete no-brainer.
5 Kansas City Chiefs- Eric Berry, S (Tennessee): This is where things start to get interesting. The Chiefs could very well go offensive tackle with both Trent Williams and Bryan Bulaga on the board. Don’t count out Dan Williams as the middle plug in their 3-4 defense. But when the name is announced I expect it to be Berry. He’s regarded as the best playmaker and arguably the most impactful player in the draft. The Chiefs are hardly loaded at safety with Mike Brown and Jon McGraw currently in the fold. Berry is a difference maker and I can see Kansas City going tackle hunting in round two.
6 Seattle Seahawks- Trent Williams, OT (Oklahoma): Few if any picks are locks at this stage and the Seahawks are no exception. C.J. Spiller is an explosive back and would be a huge upgrade over Julius Jones. Derrick Morgan is a candidate, as is Dez Bryant. But it’s vital for Seattle to find a left tackle replacement for Walter Jones and Williams fits the bill. I should note I’m as insecure with this pick as any in the top 10— Seattle also owns the 14<SUP>th</SUP> pick and I could see them getting Spiller at 6 and hoping for Anthony Davis or Charles Brown with their second selection.
7 Cleveland Browns- Rolando McClain, LB (Alabama): Nearly every mock draft I’ve seen has the Browns taking either cornerback Joe Haden or Berry. Well, in this particular instance Berry is already off the board and I don’t see Holmgren using his first pick as Browns team president on Haden. Spiller is a possibility and Bryant is not here. My thinking is Holmgren will consider Jimmy Clausen but end up going with the best available player on the board and to me that’s McClain. He’s a special player capable of becoming a perennial Pro Bowler. Inside linebacker may not be their biggest need per say, but McClain in my view is simply too good to pass up.
8 Oakland Raiders- Bryan Bulaga, OT (Iowa): This goes against the grain, eh? Given Al Davis’ draft history it seems a lock the Raiders will take a combine wonder like Jason Paul-Pierre or troublemaker Carlos Dunlap. For some reason however, I think the Raiders play it safe. Bulaga may never become an elite tackle in the league but I think he’s perhaps the safest pick in the entire draft. He’ll be a solid starter at either the left or right side and for once in this spot, I think the Raiders will finally get it right.
9 Buffalo Bills- Derrick Morgan, OLB (Georgia Tech): Yeah, I know.. WOW. Since this is a Buffalo Bills related mock, I’ll have far more detail with this selection than others. First, an explanation of why they will pass on certain players that would be available, most of which have been linked to Buffalo far more than Morgan.
Dan Williams: Sure a nose tackle is a need for the Bills, but I get a sense that Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey truly value Kyle Williams more than the vast majority of the public does. Even if he’s smallish (and he is) to play nose tackle in the new defensive scheme, I think the Bills brass will find schemes to get more use of him, making the 9<SUP>th</SUP> pick of the draft being used on a nose tackle far less likely.
Jimmy Clausen: Let’s be clear on this—if Nix wants Clausen he should be there. I think, in fact I know the Bills are considering him. In the end, I think they pass on the quarterback at nine. I feel the “boom or bust” factor is too high here and if the organization isn’t universally on the same page in Clausen’s viability in this offense, I don’t think he’s going to be selected.
Short of making a trade for Jason Campbell, I think the Bills will pick up a quarterback later in the draft (maybe not as late as you think) or sign/trade another veteran and have a true open competition at training camp. I keep hearing from people connected that Gailey likes Brian Brohm and he’ll get a fair shot.
Anthony Davis: I’m not the least bit sold on him being an elite left tackle or a hard working teammate. Jason Peters thinks this guy needs to work harder.
CJ Spiller: Even if the Bills do trade Marshawn Lynch on or during the draft, they still have Fred Jackson, who hasn’t piled up the NFL hits just yet. I can’t fathom the Bills basically giving Lynch away and slowly showing Jackson towards the door by selecting Spiller.
This all leads me concluding that Morgan is going to be the pick. I should state at that if (Trent) Williams or Bulaga are on the board one of them would be the pick, but in this mock they’re gone off to introductory press conferences in their respective new cities before the Bills pick. George Edwards may have to tweak a thing or two defensively to accommodate him, but I think Morgan is a very good fit. He’s a good pass rusher and more stout against the run than given credit for. With Aaron Maybin lining up on the other side it gives Buffalo an extremely athletic outside linebacking corp.
It also doesn’t hurt his stock that Gailey recruited him at Georgia Tech.
Sorry for those looking for a little more pizzazz with this pick, but I’m going with Morgan.
10- Jacksonville Jaguars- Earl Thomas, S (Texas): It may take the Jags all of 3.5 seconds to make this pick. Some even think he can be a better pro than Berry (I completely disagree). That’s all I got.
11- Denver Broncos- Maurkice Pouncey, C (Florida): Denver would love to get their hands on McClain but I project him being gone. The Broncos have some serious issues blocking on the interior part of the line and Pouncey can immediately put an end to that. Some will consider him a reach this high— I don’t.
12- Miami Dolphins- Dan Williams, DT (Tennessee): This pick is precisely the reason I don’t partake in mock drafting until a week or less before the real thing happens. A few days ago I could’ve easily had Bryant tabbed into this spot. That obviously changed after the Dolphins acquired monster wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Instead, meet Jason Ferguson’s successor in the middle of Miami’s defense. Joe Haden if available could get some serious consideration based on his talent.
13. San Francisco 49ers- Joe Haden, CB (Florida): Most mocks have Haden projected much higher, as high in fact as Cleveland at seven. I think he slips some and the 49ers will ensure he falls no further. Nate Clements days are officially numbered.
14. Seattle Seahawks- C.J. Spiller, RB (Clemson): And the award for luckiest team on day (evening) one goes to Seattle. They will strongly consider him with the sixth pick. I think they’ll get lucky and land him eight picks later. Come post-draft every writer will label Seattle the “big winner” in the 2010 draft.
15. New York Giants: Jason Paul-Pierre, DE (South Florida): They would jump on McClain or Thomas in this spot but I project them both to be gone. As a result they go with the best player available and with Osi Umenyiora’s future with the team uncertain, it will become far more so after this selection.
16. Tennessee Titans- Kyle Wilson, CB (Boise State): Most mocks have Wilson projected to go right about here and I won’t disagree. He’s the second rated corner in the draft and a great value pick for the Titans as the midpoint of round one.
17. San Francisco 49ers- Jimmy Clausen, QB (Notre Dame): You’ve been waiting to see how far Clausen will fall and if I’m right, you now have your answer. Alex Smith has had enough chances to prove his worth and he’ll get yet another this year, but Clausen in this spot will be their quarterback of the future. Most have them going offensive tackle here (Davis, Bruce Campbell anyone?) but I’m going to go with Clausen. In a related note, if he doesn’t go here he could fall all the way to the mid-20s.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Iupati, G (Idaho): The temptation is definitely there to go with Bryant, especially after Santonio Holmes was just dealt to the Jets. Even if he’s available I don’t see it happening for two reasons; Pittsburgh has been embarrassed off the field this winter and Bryant has some red flags for sure, and the Steelers already like incumbent receiver Mike Wallace more than you do. Iupati is a beast the can be inserted into the middle of the line and help the Steelers get back to pounding the football.
19. Atlanta Falcons- Sean Weatherspoon, ILB (Missouri): With big bucks doled out to cornerback Dunta Robinson as a free agent the biggest need turns to linebacker. Brandon Graham will get a long look and could be the pick, but with an aging Mike Peterson in tow I think Weatherspoon, one of the best tacklers in the draft, gets the nod.
20. Houston Texans- Ryan Matthews, RB (Fresno State): The Texans would jump out of their seats in excitement if Dan Williams were still on the board. I maintain a run stuffer in the front four is a bigger need than running back, despite most reports out there. For that reason, Terrence Cody could be a consideration. But with the second best running back still on the board the Texans will make a play here. If you’re a Bills fan—hope they don’t. I consider them a dark horse candidate for a potential Marshawn Lynch trade.
21. Cincinnati Bengals- Jermaine Gresham, TE (Oklahoma): Talk about a rare case of hurting your stock by staying in school. Gresham would’ve went higher had he come out in 2009. The Bengals haven’t had a great receiving tight end since… forever, and Gresham seems like the perfect fit here. He has excellent hands and can get up the field quickly once he has the ball. Even after signing Antonio Bryant, Chad Johnson is aging and the Bengals need more skilled receivers.
22. New England Patriots- Dez Bryant, WR (Oklahoma State): Talent is talent and there’s just no denying Bryant’s. There’s no way he should fall this far but character concerns and a lack of teams in desperate need of a number one receiver could see him landslide. Bill Bilicheck has shown he’s not afraid to acquire players with red flags and has confidence his veteran locker room will knock any negativity out. Randy Moss could soon start his decline and Wes Welker’s 2010 season is in jeopardy after the major ACL injury. Bryant could contribute right away and work his way to super stardom. The Patriots need defensive help but Bryant slides no farther, plus the Patriots have three picks in the second round to address that.
23. Green Bay Packers- Jerry Hughes, OLB (Boise State): A lot of analysts I’ve spoken to in recent weeks think Hughes has the ability to be the single-biggest steal in the entire draft. If you don’t believe me ask my colleague Brian Galliford at Buffalo Rumblings, who think he’s a big-time sleeper pick for Buffalo at nine. If Hughes is still on the board he’ll be a Packer. Green Bay probably needs a tackle to eventually replace Chad Clifton more, but Hughes is too talented to pass up. He’s an explosive pass rusher with a high ceiling, so much so that we could look back at this mock three years from now and laugh at some of the guys I have slotted ahead of him. Let’s just hope Buffalo isn’t one of those teams.
(Then again, I may get a bigger laugh by calling him the steal of the draft)
24. Philadelphia Eagles- Anthony Davis, OT (Rutgers): Typically I don’t buy much into personal workouts or what players and teams say pre-draft. But in this case I think the Eagles really do want Davis and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there for the taking. A questionable work ethic and the tendency to play down to his level of competition commiserates with this slide from the top half of round one.
25. Baltimore Ravens- Jared Odrick, DL (Penn State): Since this is a Bills related publication, I need to say this now; I would really like to see the Bills work out a trade in this very draft slot. There is a reason for it, which you’ll find out with the next selection. But for the sake of mocking and because I don’t do trades, I have to make a selection and I think the Ravens will jump all over Odrick. He’s a solid eventual replacement for 35-year old Trevor Pryce. The Ravens always draft well and I doubt Odrick will be an exception.
26. Arizona Cardinals- Terrence Cody, DT (Alabama): And here’s your reason why I want the Bills trade at #25. I’d love for the Bills to find a way to get Cody. I may reflect down the road and look silly for saying so, but I think Cody will be a better pro than Williams. I see Cody and envision another Casey Hampton or Vince Wilfork; a pure run stuffer who’s stats will never justify how valuable he is. Give me Morgan and Cody in the same draft with an already decent amount of talent and the Bills defense could be dominant in 12-24 months. Again though, no trading in my mock so the Cardinals will select him here, for the same above stated reasons I gave for Buffalo wanting him.
27. Dallas Cowboys- Taylor Mays, S (USC): The Cowboys cut Ken Hamlin recently and don’t have a lot of glaring needs. In this spot I think Mays fits both a need and value. Opinions on Mays vary; he could be gone much sooner (as high as Oakland at eight) or slide into the second round. I don’t see him getting past here.
28. San Diego Chargers- Devin McCourty, CB (Rutgers): Antonio Cromartie was traded to the New York Jets and the Chargers have a few options with this pick. They could use help at defensive tackle but will wait with Williams and Cody gone. Running back is a possibility, especially with Jahvid Best on the board. But McCourty fills a need and is talented enough to be an impact player in this league.
29. New York Jets- Brandon Graham, DE/LB (Michigan): Quality pass rusher to go with a ton of quality defensive players. Nearly everyone has him going much earlier. For some reason, I don’t. Ryan would be thrilled to see Graham land in New York.
30. Minnesota Vikings- Colt McCoy, QB (Texas): The Vikings have the luxury of not having a glaring hole to fill and this is the perfect spot for McCoy. Posturing aside I expect Bret Favre back for one more season, giving the opportunity for McCoy to adjust to his NFL surroundings. Playing in a dome eight times per year also plays favorably for his perceived lack of arm strength. For the record, LOOK OUT for Tim Tebow going here as well.
31. Indianapolis Colts- Charles Brown, OT (USC): I admit it seems a little surprising to see Brown still available in the first round, but I am calling it as I see it going. If Brown is still here, and obviously I think he will be, Bill Polian will be a very happy executive.
32. New Orleans Saints- Brian Price, DT (UCLA): The Saints don’t have many needs, but an upgrade at defensive tackle could be one of them. Price has a high ceiling and with Anthony Hargrove back he doesn’t need to be rushed in. Carlos Dunlap could warrant a pick here, although I’ve heard Sean Payton is very lukewarm on him due to off field issues.
ROUND TWO
33. St Louis Rams- Demaryius Thomas, WR (Georgia Tech): Bradford is useless if he doesn’t have weapons. Guess what, the Rams don’t. Broken foot or not, the Rams take him over a pass rusher, something they could also use.
34. Detroit Lions- Bruce Campbell, OT (Maryland): The Lions can go in a million different directions here, especially running back. How about going with the best talent available to block for Matt Stafford?
35. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Sergio Kindle, LB (Texas) Kindle’s character issues related slide ends here. For the record, I think Everson Griffin is a strong candidate.
36. Kansas City Chiefs- Golden Tate, WR (Notre Dame): It’s purely coincidence that former college coach Charlie Weis is now the Chiefs offensive coordinator and I take Tate here. Ok, no it’s not. Draft is deep at wide receiver. Griffin could land here as well.
37. Philadelphia Eagles- Darryl Washington, LB (TCU): Would be a great addition to the weak side linebacker position. This is one of two picks the Eagles received for Donovan McNabb.
38. Cleveland Browns- Tim Tebow, QB (Florida): And thereeeeee he goes. Good situation for both parties. Tebow can learn for a year or two behind Jake Delhomme and Holmgren has a developmental quarterback that the town will (mostly) rally around. (Bills note- as I suspect with Cody, the Bills won’t be able to get Tebow at #41 should they want him)
39. Oakland Raiders- Carlos Dunlap, DE (Florida): After making a safe first round pick the Raiders just can’t help themselves with talented trouble makers.
40. San Diego Chargers- Cam Thomas, DT (North Carolina): Worked in as a replacement for Jamal Williams.
41. Buffalo Bills: Roger Saffold, OT (Indiana): I have to play things out the way I see them going. I could’ve had some guys fall (Tebow, Thomas, Cody) fall to Buffalo that would make things easier, but I’d be lying if I saw them lasting to this spot. I think the Bills would be thrilled to find Saffold at this stage of the draft.
His college coach, Bobby Johnson from Indiana University is now the Bills assistant offensive line coach. As I did in round one, I’m going with a college connection in this spot.
What I see the Bills doing beyond Round 2
Round 3: This could be the spot where the Bills get a developmental project at quarterback. If hes’ there when the Bills pick I’d love to see them nab John Skelton, who I think has a higher ceiling that Levi Brown and the other projects.
Rounds 4-7: I don’t see Nix having any magic formula. He should simply take the best talent available regardless of position.
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Before beginning I should make something abundantly clear; I am not a fan of mock drafts. Sure, they’re entertaining to put together at the time and guaranteed to spark endless debate, but in general when you look back years from now the only thing that gets mocked is the person who pieced it all together.
The other day I took a look back at 2006 when I was a featured blogger for FoxSports.com. On March 2 of that year I compiled a three round mock and found some of these “gems” I wrote at the time.
In the first round I had the Bills taking Broderick Bunkley and scribed “If he keeps his head on straight he has the physical ability to be a younger Warren Sapp.” I then had Buffalo going with guard Charles Spencer in round two, citing he could start at left guard from day one. I capped it off with a pair of third round picks, tabbing Roger McIntosh as “insurance for Takeo Spikes” and quarterback Omar Jacobs, going as far to label him as the “steal of the draft.”
No seriously, I did. I called Omar Jacobs the steal of the draft. Ah, the things us mock drafters leave ourselves open for.
(In my defense, I didn’t have Donte Whitner going until the first pick of round two and didn’t have John McCargo slotted in the first three rounds at all; though I did project Ko Simpson going in round two and most laughably, Ashton Youboty going to Kansas City with the 20<SUP>th</SUP> overall pick)
Needless to say, since I don’t make a living scouting college prospects and putting together draft boards, I’m not exactly keen on giving critics further ammunition to open an entire case of whoop-ass on me. I do plenty well on that front already without the need for a mock draft.
But things have changed in the past few years. I’m now the publisher of Buffalo Sports Daily and since I write so much about the Bills, I suppose throwing my name into the mock draft hat comes with the territory. I’ve received several emails in recent days asking for my opinions on who the Bills will take April 22-24 and how I see the draft playing out as a whole.
The following is your answer. I present my 2010 NFL Mock draft—well the first 41 picks anyway. Assuming I’m dead wrong upon reflection in a couple of years, I hope I still share the same sense of humor you do.
One last warning; if you’re a Buffalo Bills fan (if you’re reading Buffalo Sports Daily I suspect you are—you probably won’t like this. It’s not a sexy mock for Bills fans)
Without further ado.
1 St. Louis Rams- Sam Bradford, QB (Oklahoma): I’m not going to write a lot about the first four picks because from what I’ve seen, they are universal. The Rams have to start over with the potential franchise quarterback. I do think they would love to get blown away with a trade offer from a team moving up to this spot, but I don’t see Cleveland (the prime candidate) having the ammo to move this high.
2 Detroit Lions- Ndamukong Suh, DT (Nebraska): Gerald McCoy may be a better fit and Russell Okung is perhaps a more pressing need, but I don’t see any way the Lions pass on the player most (including myself) consider the best in the draft. Detroit on paper has gotten a lot better in the past few months.
3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Gerald McCoy, DT (Oklahoma): Don’t really need to tell you t they look at him as their next Warren Sapp (as I did Bunkley in 2006). Eric Berry may warrant consideration but in the end it’s going to be McCoy.
4 Washington Redskins- Russell Okung, OT (Oklahoma State): If the Redskins aren’t announcing this pick about 10 seconds into being on the clock, it’s because they are listening to offers to move down. Assuming they keep the pick, Okung is a complete no-brainer.
5 Kansas City Chiefs- Eric Berry, S (Tennessee): This is where things start to get interesting. The Chiefs could very well go offensive tackle with both Trent Williams and Bryan Bulaga on the board. Don’t count out Dan Williams as the middle plug in their 3-4 defense. But when the name is announced I expect it to be Berry. He’s regarded as the best playmaker and arguably the most impactful player in the draft. The Chiefs are hardly loaded at safety with Mike Brown and Jon McGraw currently in the fold. Berry is a difference maker and I can see Kansas City going tackle hunting in round two.
6 Seattle Seahawks- Trent Williams, OT (Oklahoma): Few if any picks are locks at this stage and the Seahawks are no exception. C.J. Spiller is an explosive back and would be a huge upgrade over Julius Jones. Derrick Morgan is a candidate, as is Dez Bryant. But it’s vital for Seattle to find a left tackle replacement for Walter Jones and Williams fits the bill. I should note I’m as insecure with this pick as any in the top 10— Seattle also owns the 14<SUP>th</SUP> pick and I could see them getting Spiller at 6 and hoping for Anthony Davis or Charles Brown with their second selection.
7 Cleveland Browns- Rolando McClain, LB (Alabama): Nearly every mock draft I’ve seen has the Browns taking either cornerback Joe Haden or Berry. Well, in this particular instance Berry is already off the board and I don’t see Holmgren using his first pick as Browns team president on Haden. Spiller is a possibility and Bryant is not here. My thinking is Holmgren will consider Jimmy Clausen but end up going with the best available player on the board and to me that’s McClain. He’s a special player capable of becoming a perennial Pro Bowler. Inside linebacker may not be their biggest need per say, but McClain in my view is simply too good to pass up.
8 Oakland Raiders- Bryan Bulaga, OT (Iowa): This goes against the grain, eh? Given Al Davis’ draft history it seems a lock the Raiders will take a combine wonder like Jason Paul-Pierre or troublemaker Carlos Dunlap. For some reason however, I think the Raiders play it safe. Bulaga may never become an elite tackle in the league but I think he’s perhaps the safest pick in the entire draft. He’ll be a solid starter at either the left or right side and for once in this spot, I think the Raiders will finally get it right.
9 Buffalo Bills- Derrick Morgan, OLB (Georgia Tech): Yeah, I know.. WOW. Since this is a Buffalo Bills related mock, I’ll have far more detail with this selection than others. First, an explanation of why they will pass on certain players that would be available, most of which have been linked to Buffalo far more than Morgan.
Dan Williams: Sure a nose tackle is a need for the Bills, but I get a sense that Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey truly value Kyle Williams more than the vast majority of the public does. Even if he’s smallish (and he is) to play nose tackle in the new defensive scheme, I think the Bills brass will find schemes to get more use of him, making the 9<SUP>th</SUP> pick of the draft being used on a nose tackle far less likely.
Jimmy Clausen: Let’s be clear on this—if Nix wants Clausen he should be there. I think, in fact I know the Bills are considering him. In the end, I think they pass on the quarterback at nine. I feel the “boom or bust” factor is too high here and if the organization isn’t universally on the same page in Clausen’s viability in this offense, I don’t think he’s going to be selected.
Short of making a trade for Jason Campbell, I think the Bills will pick up a quarterback later in the draft (maybe not as late as you think) or sign/trade another veteran and have a true open competition at training camp. I keep hearing from people connected that Gailey likes Brian Brohm and he’ll get a fair shot.
Anthony Davis: I’m not the least bit sold on him being an elite left tackle or a hard working teammate. Jason Peters thinks this guy needs to work harder.
CJ Spiller: Even if the Bills do trade Marshawn Lynch on or during the draft, they still have Fred Jackson, who hasn’t piled up the NFL hits just yet. I can’t fathom the Bills basically giving Lynch away and slowly showing Jackson towards the door by selecting Spiller.
This all leads me concluding that Morgan is going to be the pick. I should state at that if (Trent) Williams or Bulaga are on the board one of them would be the pick, but in this mock they’re gone off to introductory press conferences in their respective new cities before the Bills pick. George Edwards may have to tweak a thing or two defensively to accommodate him, but I think Morgan is a very good fit. He’s a good pass rusher and more stout against the run than given credit for. With Aaron Maybin lining up on the other side it gives Buffalo an extremely athletic outside linebacking corp.
It also doesn’t hurt his stock that Gailey recruited him at Georgia Tech.
Sorry for those looking for a little more pizzazz with this pick, but I’m going with Morgan.
10- Jacksonville Jaguars- Earl Thomas, S (Texas): It may take the Jags all of 3.5 seconds to make this pick. Some even think he can be a better pro than Berry (I completely disagree). That’s all I got.
11- Denver Broncos- Maurkice Pouncey, C (Florida): Denver would love to get their hands on McClain but I project him being gone. The Broncos have some serious issues blocking on the interior part of the line and Pouncey can immediately put an end to that. Some will consider him a reach this high— I don’t.
12- Miami Dolphins- Dan Williams, DT (Tennessee): This pick is precisely the reason I don’t partake in mock drafting until a week or less before the real thing happens. A few days ago I could’ve easily had Bryant tabbed into this spot. That obviously changed after the Dolphins acquired monster wide receiver Brandon Marshall. Instead, meet Jason Ferguson’s successor in the middle of Miami’s defense. Joe Haden if available could get some serious consideration based on his talent.
13. San Francisco 49ers- Joe Haden, CB (Florida): Most mocks have Haden projected much higher, as high in fact as Cleveland at seven. I think he slips some and the 49ers will ensure he falls no further. Nate Clements days are officially numbered.
14. Seattle Seahawks- C.J. Spiller, RB (Clemson): And the award for luckiest team on day (evening) one goes to Seattle. They will strongly consider him with the sixth pick. I think they’ll get lucky and land him eight picks later. Come post-draft every writer will label Seattle the “big winner” in the 2010 draft.
15. New York Giants: Jason Paul-Pierre, DE (South Florida): They would jump on McClain or Thomas in this spot but I project them both to be gone. As a result they go with the best player available and with Osi Umenyiora’s future with the team uncertain, it will become far more so after this selection.
16. Tennessee Titans- Kyle Wilson, CB (Boise State): Most mocks have Wilson projected to go right about here and I won’t disagree. He’s the second rated corner in the draft and a great value pick for the Titans as the midpoint of round one.
17. San Francisco 49ers- Jimmy Clausen, QB (Notre Dame): You’ve been waiting to see how far Clausen will fall and if I’m right, you now have your answer. Alex Smith has had enough chances to prove his worth and he’ll get yet another this year, but Clausen in this spot will be their quarterback of the future. Most have them going offensive tackle here (Davis, Bruce Campbell anyone?) but I’m going to go with Clausen. In a related note, if he doesn’t go here he could fall all the way to the mid-20s.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Iupati, G (Idaho): The temptation is definitely there to go with Bryant, especially after Santonio Holmes was just dealt to the Jets. Even if he’s available I don’t see it happening for two reasons; Pittsburgh has been embarrassed off the field this winter and Bryant has some red flags for sure, and the Steelers already like incumbent receiver Mike Wallace more than you do. Iupati is a beast the can be inserted into the middle of the line and help the Steelers get back to pounding the football.
19. Atlanta Falcons- Sean Weatherspoon, ILB (Missouri): With big bucks doled out to cornerback Dunta Robinson as a free agent the biggest need turns to linebacker. Brandon Graham will get a long look and could be the pick, but with an aging Mike Peterson in tow I think Weatherspoon, one of the best tacklers in the draft, gets the nod.
20. Houston Texans- Ryan Matthews, RB (Fresno State): The Texans would jump out of their seats in excitement if Dan Williams were still on the board. I maintain a run stuffer in the front four is a bigger need than running back, despite most reports out there. For that reason, Terrence Cody could be a consideration. But with the second best running back still on the board the Texans will make a play here. If you’re a Bills fan—hope they don’t. I consider them a dark horse candidate for a potential Marshawn Lynch trade.
21. Cincinnati Bengals- Jermaine Gresham, TE (Oklahoma): Talk about a rare case of hurting your stock by staying in school. Gresham would’ve went higher had he come out in 2009. The Bengals haven’t had a great receiving tight end since… forever, and Gresham seems like the perfect fit here. He has excellent hands and can get up the field quickly once he has the ball. Even after signing Antonio Bryant, Chad Johnson is aging and the Bengals need more skilled receivers.
22. New England Patriots- Dez Bryant, WR (Oklahoma State): Talent is talent and there’s just no denying Bryant’s. There’s no way he should fall this far but character concerns and a lack of teams in desperate need of a number one receiver could see him landslide. Bill Bilicheck has shown he’s not afraid to acquire players with red flags and has confidence his veteran locker room will knock any negativity out. Randy Moss could soon start his decline and Wes Welker’s 2010 season is in jeopardy after the major ACL injury. Bryant could contribute right away and work his way to super stardom. The Patriots need defensive help but Bryant slides no farther, plus the Patriots have three picks in the second round to address that.
23. Green Bay Packers- Jerry Hughes, OLB (Boise State): A lot of analysts I’ve spoken to in recent weeks think Hughes has the ability to be the single-biggest steal in the entire draft. If you don’t believe me ask my colleague Brian Galliford at Buffalo Rumblings, who think he’s a big-time sleeper pick for Buffalo at nine. If Hughes is still on the board he’ll be a Packer. Green Bay probably needs a tackle to eventually replace Chad Clifton more, but Hughes is too talented to pass up. He’s an explosive pass rusher with a high ceiling, so much so that we could look back at this mock three years from now and laugh at some of the guys I have slotted ahead of him. Let’s just hope Buffalo isn’t one of those teams.
(Then again, I may get a bigger laugh by calling him the steal of the draft)
24. Philadelphia Eagles- Anthony Davis, OT (Rutgers): Typically I don’t buy much into personal workouts or what players and teams say pre-draft. But in this case I think the Eagles really do want Davis and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him there for the taking. A questionable work ethic and the tendency to play down to his level of competition commiserates with this slide from the top half of round one.
25. Baltimore Ravens- Jared Odrick, DL (Penn State): Since this is a Bills related publication, I need to say this now; I would really like to see the Bills work out a trade in this very draft slot. There is a reason for it, which you’ll find out with the next selection. But for the sake of mocking and because I don’t do trades, I have to make a selection and I think the Ravens will jump all over Odrick. He’s a solid eventual replacement for 35-year old Trevor Pryce. The Ravens always draft well and I doubt Odrick will be an exception.
26. Arizona Cardinals- Terrence Cody, DT (Alabama): And here’s your reason why I want the Bills trade at #25. I’d love for the Bills to find a way to get Cody. I may reflect down the road and look silly for saying so, but I think Cody will be a better pro than Williams. I see Cody and envision another Casey Hampton or Vince Wilfork; a pure run stuffer who’s stats will never justify how valuable he is. Give me Morgan and Cody in the same draft with an already decent amount of talent and the Bills defense could be dominant in 12-24 months. Again though, no trading in my mock so the Cardinals will select him here, for the same above stated reasons I gave for Buffalo wanting him.
27. Dallas Cowboys- Taylor Mays, S (USC): The Cowboys cut Ken Hamlin recently and don’t have a lot of glaring needs. In this spot I think Mays fits both a need and value. Opinions on Mays vary; he could be gone much sooner (as high as Oakland at eight) or slide into the second round. I don’t see him getting past here.
28. San Diego Chargers- Devin McCourty, CB (Rutgers): Antonio Cromartie was traded to the New York Jets and the Chargers have a few options with this pick. They could use help at defensive tackle but will wait with Williams and Cody gone. Running back is a possibility, especially with Jahvid Best on the board. But McCourty fills a need and is talented enough to be an impact player in this league.
29. New York Jets- Brandon Graham, DE/LB (Michigan): Quality pass rusher to go with a ton of quality defensive players. Nearly everyone has him going much earlier. For some reason, I don’t. Ryan would be thrilled to see Graham land in New York.
30. Minnesota Vikings- Colt McCoy, QB (Texas): The Vikings have the luxury of not having a glaring hole to fill and this is the perfect spot for McCoy. Posturing aside I expect Bret Favre back for one more season, giving the opportunity for McCoy to adjust to his NFL surroundings. Playing in a dome eight times per year also plays favorably for his perceived lack of arm strength. For the record, LOOK OUT for Tim Tebow going here as well.
31. Indianapolis Colts- Charles Brown, OT (USC): I admit it seems a little surprising to see Brown still available in the first round, but I am calling it as I see it going. If Brown is still here, and obviously I think he will be, Bill Polian will be a very happy executive.
32. New Orleans Saints- Brian Price, DT (UCLA): The Saints don’t have many needs, but an upgrade at defensive tackle could be one of them. Price has a high ceiling and with Anthony Hargrove back he doesn’t need to be rushed in. Carlos Dunlap could warrant a pick here, although I’ve heard Sean Payton is very lukewarm on him due to off field issues.
ROUND TWO
33. St Louis Rams- Demaryius Thomas, WR (Georgia Tech): Bradford is useless if he doesn’t have weapons. Guess what, the Rams don’t. Broken foot or not, the Rams take him over a pass rusher, something they could also use.
34. Detroit Lions- Bruce Campbell, OT (Maryland): The Lions can go in a million different directions here, especially running back. How about going with the best talent available to block for Matt Stafford?
35. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Sergio Kindle, LB (Texas) Kindle’s character issues related slide ends here. For the record, I think Everson Griffin is a strong candidate.
36. Kansas City Chiefs- Golden Tate, WR (Notre Dame): It’s purely coincidence that former college coach Charlie Weis is now the Chiefs offensive coordinator and I take Tate here. Ok, no it’s not. Draft is deep at wide receiver. Griffin could land here as well.
37. Philadelphia Eagles- Darryl Washington, LB (TCU): Would be a great addition to the weak side linebacker position. This is one of two picks the Eagles received for Donovan McNabb.
38. Cleveland Browns- Tim Tebow, QB (Florida): And thereeeeee he goes. Good situation for both parties. Tebow can learn for a year or two behind Jake Delhomme and Holmgren has a developmental quarterback that the town will (mostly) rally around. (Bills note- as I suspect with Cody, the Bills won’t be able to get Tebow at #41 should they want him)
39. Oakland Raiders- Carlos Dunlap, DE (Florida): After making a safe first round pick the Raiders just can’t help themselves with talented trouble makers.
40. San Diego Chargers- Cam Thomas, DT (North Carolina): Worked in as a replacement for Jamal Williams.
41. Buffalo Bills: Roger Saffold, OT (Indiana): I have to play things out the way I see them going. I could’ve had some guys fall (Tebow, Thomas, Cody) fall to Buffalo that would make things easier, but I’d be lying if I saw them lasting to this spot. I think the Bills would be thrilled to find Saffold at this stage of the draft.
His college coach, Bobby Johnson from Indiana University is now the Bills assistant offensive line coach. As I did in round one, I’m going with a college connection in this spot.
What I see the Bills doing beyond Round 2
Round 3: This could be the spot where the Bills get a developmental project at quarterback. If hes’ there when the Bills pick I’d love to see them nab John Skelton, who I think has a higher ceiling that Levi Brown and the other projects.
Rounds 4-7: I don’t see Nix having any magic formula. He should simply take the best talent available regardless of position.