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I was just shooting some shots with my buddy working for an agency here. We were talking about busts and that got me thinking?
How does a guy become a bust? Especially higher draft picks?
From what I learned, they have most of the physical parts down to a science. A guy in each position needs certain speed, certain strength, certain size, which all teams have measured over and over again, in combines, and more importantly, from hundreds of films analysis.
Everyone also has to go through interviews, dissect plays, answer football questions so that football intelligence is tested - I heard they have to go through scouts, position coaches, coordinators, head coaches on a typical visits. So a team should have a pretty good idea if the kid can grasp the concept of what the team want to do on the field - I mean concepts, not all the plays.
The one variable I can see is hard work. I understand when you go up a level, you natural talent alone may not carry you as much as in college because talent differences are much smaller in NFL, you need hard work to keep up or notch ahead. I think teams know that. The Bills, for example, are picking guys with a hard working attitude exclusively. Those who take a gamble on not-so-reputable athletes know that they are taking a gamble; I cannot call those ones busts because of that.
Then there are peaks and valleys in performance. Some times, guys peak in performance or get favorable match ups, so you look awesome in one year. That's what we call one year wonder. I think Nix said he tried to avoid that, though I think he did exact that in the 4th round. But if you stick with picking guys with 3 or more years of solid performance, you can eliminate this kind of problems as well.
So finally I come down with a conclusion of money. That's the thing that noone can measure or forecast. Almost all of the kids, for the first time, will have the amount of money they've never seen before. And we all know money can change a person, in a big way. I have heard many stories of business people making money and lose interest - they usually have stock or invest while still collecting a fat check off other people's work. People like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates are minority.
Maybe NFL should hire people to analyze prospects from the money perspective.
How does a guy become a bust? Especially higher draft picks?
From what I learned, they have most of the physical parts down to a science. A guy in each position needs certain speed, certain strength, certain size, which all teams have measured over and over again, in combines, and more importantly, from hundreds of films analysis.
Everyone also has to go through interviews, dissect plays, answer football questions so that football intelligence is tested - I heard they have to go through scouts, position coaches, coordinators, head coaches on a typical visits. So a team should have a pretty good idea if the kid can grasp the concept of what the team want to do on the field - I mean concepts, not all the plays.
The one variable I can see is hard work. I understand when you go up a level, you natural talent alone may not carry you as much as in college because talent differences are much smaller in NFL, you need hard work to keep up or notch ahead. I think teams know that. The Bills, for example, are picking guys with a hard working attitude exclusively. Those who take a gamble on not-so-reputable athletes know that they are taking a gamble; I cannot call those ones busts because of that.
Then there are peaks and valleys in performance. Some times, guys peak in performance or get favorable match ups, so you look awesome in one year. That's what we call one year wonder. I think Nix said he tried to avoid that, though I think he did exact that in the 4th round. But if you stick with picking guys with 3 or more years of solid performance, you can eliminate this kind of problems as well.
So finally I come down with a conclusion of money. That's the thing that noone can measure or forecast. Almost all of the kids, for the first time, will have the amount of money they've never seen before. And we all know money can change a person, in a big way. I have heard many stories of business people making money and lose interest - they usually have stock or invest while still collecting a fat check off other people's work. People like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates are minority.
Maybe NFL should hire people to analyze prospects from the money perspective.
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