Buddo
04-27-2010, 06:57 PM
FWIW, my take on the Bills GM and HC approach to the Draft.
There are some things that I think need to be made clear from the outset. This is my own interpretation of what Nix and Gailey wanted to do with this draft.
Also needing to be made clear, I think, is Nix's intention for his first couple of picks, especially his 1st round pick.
1st Round pick, to Nix = Starter. (Especially a top10 pick)
2nd Rounder = Starter.
After that, he's trying to get guys who will improve the roster, preferably immediately, but certainly not too far down the road. They will also be guys at positions of 'need', but depending on how the draft falls, it could be any position where we have a need, and it will be the highest rated guy out of those positions.
Right, having said that, this now leads me to the Spiller pick. In certain respects, I don't think it was necessarily 'Plan A', for the strategy of this draft. What I do believe, is that they knew pretty much, that it was likely to be the strategy they would be going with. I think 'Plan A', would have been to take Okung or T. Williams, if either had been there. One other possibility, I feel, may have been McClain. Just prior to the draft, at the Bills 'pre-draft lunch', Nix pretty much let slip, that he only viewed two OTs as being able to come in and start straight away. Okung would certainly be one of them, with good chances that Williams was the other. Nix wants a starter with his #9 pick. That rules out Davis. It quite possibly rules out Bulaga as well, as you suspect that Nix could well view him as a RT, not LT. It also pretty much rules out the likelihood of Nix taking an OT in the 2nd round, as he is still looking for a starter there also.
The Bills may have had 'pause for thought' if McClain had still been available @ 9. He will almost certainly be a starter, and he would also fill a 'need'. Nix's criteria for his pick would have been fulfilled there also, but it's a moot point, as he is also gone.
So #9 comes around, and Gailey has an unscheduled birthday, as his wish for a 'water bug', gets fulfilled by the best in the draft, in Spiller. Nix and Gailey are also pretty aware that they could use a 'playmaker' on offense, and Spiller is a genuine threat, in many ways.
The Bills second pick, is also intended to be a starter. I think that all along, they targeted a Nose, with that second pick, even if they had actually had Okung or T.Williams slide to them for some obscure reason. What they then tried to do, was take the best NT available to them. As it happens, that was intended to be Dan Williams, by virtue of trading back up into the first round. The Broncos stuffed that idea up, by hurtling back into the first, to get Tebow, possibly mistakenly believing that that was who the Bills were targeting. It seems that even then, the Bills actually had a trade in place, to get back into the 1st, just a couple of slots after the Broncos had made their move. It came to nothing, because with the pick before, Dan Williams, was no more - on the board, anyway. ;)
The 2nd round pick then goes to their next highest NT on their board, and that is Troup. While I think he could be considered a 'reach', I don't think it's by that much tbh - and almost certainly not on the Bills board. While his upside in terms of 'versatility', may not be great, it doesn't really matter to the Bills, as he is pretty much what they want. Mostly Troup's 'upside', will be learning to become more effective on passing downs. As things stand, he will probably be on the field on any likely run down, which could be three consecutive downs, on quite a few occasions, especially when playing the Fins or Jest. The likes of Cody and Thomas, aren't remotely in a position to do that fitness wise.
Essentially, for all those wanting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, the earlier reasoning still stands. Clausen, McCoy, or whoever, wasn't about to come in and start, at least not in Nix's view, and bearing in mind where some of those guys were picked, and what the intentions are of the teams that picked them, neither did many other teams. The Bills aren't in 'luxury' pick mode, and by 'luxury' I mean using 2nd round picks on potential rather than production, they are in rebuilding mode.
From the 3rd round onward, I think they were pretty much prepared to let the draft come to them, and take the bpa at any position of need.
Something I like about Nix's approach, is that he doesn't believe in drafting guys who are only 'possibly' better than those he has already.
Nix would obviously like to hit a home run on every pick, but look for him to do his best to ensure that the first couple of picks the Bills have in the future, will come in and start that same year.
There are some things that I think need to be made clear from the outset. This is my own interpretation of what Nix and Gailey wanted to do with this draft.
Also needing to be made clear, I think, is Nix's intention for his first couple of picks, especially his 1st round pick.
1st Round pick, to Nix = Starter. (Especially a top10 pick)
2nd Rounder = Starter.
After that, he's trying to get guys who will improve the roster, preferably immediately, but certainly not too far down the road. They will also be guys at positions of 'need', but depending on how the draft falls, it could be any position where we have a need, and it will be the highest rated guy out of those positions.
Right, having said that, this now leads me to the Spiller pick. In certain respects, I don't think it was necessarily 'Plan A', for the strategy of this draft. What I do believe, is that they knew pretty much, that it was likely to be the strategy they would be going with. I think 'Plan A', would have been to take Okung or T. Williams, if either had been there. One other possibility, I feel, may have been McClain. Just prior to the draft, at the Bills 'pre-draft lunch', Nix pretty much let slip, that he only viewed two OTs as being able to come in and start straight away. Okung would certainly be one of them, with good chances that Williams was the other. Nix wants a starter with his #9 pick. That rules out Davis. It quite possibly rules out Bulaga as well, as you suspect that Nix could well view him as a RT, not LT. It also pretty much rules out the likelihood of Nix taking an OT in the 2nd round, as he is still looking for a starter there also.
The Bills may have had 'pause for thought' if McClain had still been available @ 9. He will almost certainly be a starter, and he would also fill a 'need'. Nix's criteria for his pick would have been fulfilled there also, but it's a moot point, as he is also gone.
So #9 comes around, and Gailey has an unscheduled birthday, as his wish for a 'water bug', gets fulfilled by the best in the draft, in Spiller. Nix and Gailey are also pretty aware that they could use a 'playmaker' on offense, and Spiller is a genuine threat, in many ways.
The Bills second pick, is also intended to be a starter. I think that all along, they targeted a Nose, with that second pick, even if they had actually had Okung or T.Williams slide to them for some obscure reason. What they then tried to do, was take the best NT available to them. As it happens, that was intended to be Dan Williams, by virtue of trading back up into the first round. The Broncos stuffed that idea up, by hurtling back into the first, to get Tebow, possibly mistakenly believing that that was who the Bills were targeting. It seems that even then, the Bills actually had a trade in place, to get back into the 1st, just a couple of slots after the Broncos had made their move. It came to nothing, because with the pick before, Dan Williams, was no more - on the board, anyway. ;)
The 2nd round pick then goes to their next highest NT on their board, and that is Troup. While I think he could be considered a 'reach', I don't think it's by that much tbh - and almost certainly not on the Bills board. While his upside in terms of 'versatility', may not be great, it doesn't really matter to the Bills, as he is pretty much what they want. Mostly Troup's 'upside', will be learning to become more effective on passing downs. As things stand, he will probably be on the field on any likely run down, which could be three consecutive downs, on quite a few occasions, especially when playing the Fins or Jest. The likes of Cody and Thomas, aren't remotely in a position to do that fitness wise.
Essentially, for all those wanting a QB in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, the earlier reasoning still stands. Clausen, McCoy, or whoever, wasn't about to come in and start, at least not in Nix's view, and bearing in mind where some of those guys were picked, and what the intentions are of the teams that picked them, neither did many other teams. The Bills aren't in 'luxury' pick mode, and by 'luxury' I mean using 2nd round picks on potential rather than production, they are in rebuilding mode.
From the 3rd round onward, I think they were pretty much prepared to let the draft come to them, and take the bpa at any position of need.
Something I like about Nix's approach, is that he doesn't believe in drafting guys who are only 'possibly' better than those he has already.
Nix would obviously like to hit a home run on every pick, but look for him to do his best to ensure that the first couple of picks the Bills have in the future, will come in and start that same year.