Schobel tops in playmaking

[madness]

Schobel tops in playmaking (http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2010/05/10/schobel-tops-in-playmaking/)

By Chris Brown - Posted May 10, 2010 – 10:39 am
Bills DE Aaron Schobel still hasn’t decided whether he’s going to continue his playing career in 2010, but he might be interested to know that AdvancedNFLStats has found among defensive ends he had the best playmaking ability in 2009.
AdvancedNFLStats creates new models that go beyond just sacks and tackles or other commonly used figures to provide a more accurate gauge of a player’s effectiveness on the field.
Without getting into a whole comprehensive breakdown, basically what AdvancedNFLStats did was develop a statistic called WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added.
“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense.
What these stats measure is playmaking ability (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/03/measuring-defensive-playmakers.html).
At the defensive end position Schobel ranked number one in the league for 2009. His WPA was an impressive 2.08. No other defensive end cracked 2, with Washington’s Andre Carter the next closest at 1.89.
In the EPA category, Schobel ranked second to Minnesota’s Jared Allen. Allen had plays with positive expected points added (EPA) 71.3% of the time. Schobel was second at 63.1%.
Of course in the traditional categories, Schobel ranked tied for seventh in the NFL in sacks, tied for fifth in sack yards, fifth in tackles for loss and tied for second in interceptions in 2009.
But for those that believe because he’s 250 pounds that he can’t hold up against the run, you’re wrong, and these numbers prove it. Here’s the list of top 15 performers at defensive end under these indices.
94-A.Schobel BUF
99-A.Carter WAS
69-J.Allen MIN
91-W.Smith NO
91-R.Edwards MIN
94-R.Starks MIA
96-A.Brown CHI
99-B.Keisel PIT
58-T.Cole PHI 17
90-M.Williams HST
93-D.Freeney IND
91-J.Tuck NYG 15
91-R.Geathers CIN
94-A.Smith HST
92-S.Ellis NYJ

[madness]

Not bad for somebody with absolutely no inside move and gets all his sacks in garbage time. :rolleyes:

[madness]

Application

Can +WPA really tell us who the best defensive players are? Let's see if the top defenders in +WPA for 2009 make sense. For linebackers, there's Jonathan Vilma, David Harris, LaMarr Woodley, Patrick Willis, Gary Brackett, Ray Lewis, James Harrison, Karlos Dansby, London Fletcher, and Terrell Suggs.

The top defensive ends include: Aaron Schobel, Jared Allen, Andre Carter, Will Smith, Ray Edwards, Trent Cole, Alex Brown, Brett Keisel, Mario Williams, and Dwight Freeney. Guys like Julius Peppers, Justin Tuck, and Robert Mathis are right behind.

For tackles, there's: Kevin Williams, Kyle Williams, Jonathan Babineaux, Darnell Dockett, Justin Smith, Albert Haynesworth, Jay Ratliff, Tommie Harris, Marcus Stroud, Vince Wilfork, and Pat Williams.

Still not convinced? Here are the top cornerbacks: Darelle Revis (who else?), Dominic Rodgers-Cromartie, DeAngelo Hall, Charles Woodson, Asante Samuel, and Tracy Porter. Rhonde Barber and Champ Bailey are not far behind.

And lastly, here are the safeties for 2009: Bernard Pollard, Darren Sharper, Justin Leonard, Brian Dawkins, Adrian Wilson, Roman Harper, and Ed Reed. Care to guess #1 and #2 from 2008? Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed.

+WPA produced an impressive list of players. Just consider the Pro-Bowl appearances belonging to those players. (This might mean Pro Bowl selections ignore negative performance, just like +WPA does. Or it means +WPA is a pretty good stat for defenders. I think it's probably a little of both.)

[EDS]

I am sure Chris Ellis will make us all forget about Schobel.

[TacklingDummy]

Not bad for somebody with absolutely no inside move and gets all his sacks in garbage time. :rolleyes:

:clap:

Garbage Time Sack Master.

[TacklingDummy]

I am sure Chris Ellis will make us all forget about Schobel.
Schobel has made us forget about Schobel.

[HHURRICANE]

I hope Schobel retires. Is their a stat for a crappy attitude?

[M]

According to a post on the BBMB, Schobel just sold his house in OP.

[Beebe's Kid]

I hope Schobel retires. Is their a stat for a crappy attitude?
He is second, behind you, cupcake.

I don't hope he retires, I hope we trade him. I love this study....it shows how valuable he truly is. We need that help, because there is no tape of Schobel applying pressure to opposing QB's. Aside from his sacks, which are nice, the guy is just not a force on the field. He was too lazy to improve as a DE, why would he ever put the effort in to switch to OLB?

[Syderick]

I'd like to see him back. He's all right DE.

[Thief]

I'd like to see him back. He's all right DE.Too bad he is a LBer.

[Philagape]

Where's the metrics for getting blocked out of a running play?

[justasportsfan]

:clap:

Garbage Time Sack Master.
Puhlease. He's made good tackles not in garbage time. He's always been solid with no help from supporting cast and has had crappy coaches for the majority of his career here.

[BertSquirtgum]

schobel has dumbo sized ears.

[jamze132]

What, no love for Kelsay from the stat guru's?

:chuckle:

[TacklingDummy]

Puhlease. He's made good tackles not in garbage time. He's always been solid with no help from supporting cast and has had crappy coaches for the majority of his career here.
My lasting memory of Schobel is when a QB tripped, fell on the ground, Schobel touched him and he earned the sack.

[HHURRICANE]

When people start realizing that Schobel did absolutely nothing to change the tempo of a game or intimidate an offensive line than maybe this team will start winning.

Schobel has been part of the problem for the last decade. Never wanting to be a leader on this team say's everything.

We should have kept Fletcher and sent Schobel to DC.

[Syderick]

Too bad he is a LBer.

Well if he comes back we'll see how the switch works out.

[madness]

...and one for the Poz haters

Poz’s playmaking right up there Chris Brown
Posted May 12, 2010 – 10:29 am
Tags: Paul Posluszny (http://blogs.buffalobills.com/tag/paul-posluszny/)
On Monday we showed how AdvancedNFLStats determined playmaking ability (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/03/measuring-defensive-playmakers.html) through new statistical models that measure WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added. Aaron Schobel and Kyle Williams were both among the best at their respective positions for the 2009 regular season. Buffalo’s middle and soon to be inside linebacker fared well at his position too.
“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense. What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.
Paul Posluszny (2.00) had the second highest WPA (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2009&pos=LB&season=reg) among linebackers for the 2009 regular season with only Lamarr Woodley (2.10)faring better than him.
In positive expected points added per game, Poz ranked third overall (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2009&pos=LB&season=reg) among linebackers finishing behind only Carolina’s Thomas Davis and Houston’s Brian Cushing.
Here’s the top 15 list of linebackers for this playmaking statistic. Not a bad showing by Pittsburgh linebackers with all four of their starters in the top 15 (Woodley, Harrison, Timmons and Farrior). It’s encouraging knowing Buffalo is moving to that scheme as well.
56-L.Woodley PIT
51-P.Posluszny BUF
51-J.Vilma NO
52-D.Harris NYJ
52-P.Willis SF
92-J.Harrison PIT
52-J.Beason CAR
52-R.Lewis BLT
59-L.Fletcher WAS
55-C.Session IND
58-G.Brackett IND
54-Ge.Hayes TB
94-L.Timmons PIT
93-A.Spencer DAL
51-J.Farrior PIT

[OpIv37]

...and one for the Poz haters

Poz’s playmaking right up there Chris Brown
Posted May 12, 2010 – 10:29 am
Tags: Paul Posluszny (http://blogs.buffalobills.com/tag/paul-posluszny/)
On Monday we showed how AdvancedNFLStats determined playmaking ability (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/03/measuring-defensive-playmakers.html) through new statistical models that measure WPA or positive win probability added and EPA or positive expected points added. Aaron Schobel and Kyle Williams were both among the best at their respective positions for the 2009 regular season. Buffalo’s middle and soon to be inside linebacker fared well at his position too.
“+WPA” and “+EPA” add up the value of every sack, interception, pass defense, forced fumble or recovery, and every tackle or assist that results in a setback for the offense. What these stats measure ultimately is playmaking ability.
Paul Posluszny (2.00) had the second highest WPA (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2009&pos=LB&season=reg) among linebackers for the 2009 regular season with only Lamarr Woodley (2.10)faring better than him.
In positive expected points added per game, Poz ranked third overall (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/defenderstats.php?year=2009&pos=LB&season=reg) among linebackers finishing behind only Carolina’s Thomas Davis and Houston’s Brian Cushing.
Here’s the top 15 list of linebackers for this playmaking statistic. Not a bad showing by Pittsburgh linebackers with all four of their starters in the top 15 (Woodley, Harrison, Timmons and Farrior). It’s encouraging knowing Buffalo is moving to that scheme as well.
56-L.Woodley PIT
51-P.Posluszny BUF
51-J.Vilma NO
52-D.Harris NYJ
52-P.Willis SF
92-J.Harrison PIT
52-J.Beason CAR
52-R.Lewis BLT
59-L.Fletcher WAS
55-C.Session IND
58-G.Brackett IND
54-Ge.Hayes TB
94-L.Timmons PIT
93-A.Spencer DAL
51-J.Farrior PIT

So, according to this stat, 3 guys in our front 7 are amongst the best playmakers at their respective positions. So how the hell did we lose 10 games and finish 30th in rush D?

Maybe, just maybe, this stat doesn't explain as much as its creators think it does.

[madness]

So, according to this stat, 3 guys in our front 7 are amongst the best playmakers at their respective positions. So how the hell did we lose 10 games and finish 30th in rush D?

Maybe, just maybe, this stat doesn't explain as much as its creators think it does.

Considering the talent on those lists, I'd say maybe the other 4 were huge liabilities.

[Philagape]

So, according to this stat, 3 guys in our front 7 are amongst the best playmakers at their respective positions. So how the hell did we lose 10 games and finish 30th in rush D?

Maybe, just maybe, this stat doesn't explain as much as its creators think it does.

And it doesn't account for more pertinent facts.

Stats almost never tell the whole story. Lies, damn lies, yada yada ....

[jamze132]

I honestly hope Schobel retires. I don't think him in a 3-4 at his age is the best thing for this rebuilding team.

[Spiderweb]

Not bad for somebody with absolutely no inside move and gets all his sacks in garbage time. :rolleyes:

So how are the rest of Bills doing at "garbage time"?

That's a lame analysis, always was......

Schobel is (or maybe was) a very good player, period.

[OpIv37]

So how are the rest of Bills doing at "garbage time"?

That's a lame analysis, always was......

Schobel is (or maybe was) a very good player, period.

If you can prove it wrong, by all means do. But don't just call it "lame" because you don't like it. Offer up some evidence to prove it wrong.

Schobel will have a 3 sack game, with two sacks coming at the end of the game when the Bills already have it under control and the other team is airing it out to catch up. Then he'll go another 2-3 weeks before he'll get another sack. He's a streaky player with no inside move who often over-pursues to the outside to try to get around the tackle.

That being said, he's still the best 4-3 DE on the roster right now and he's the best DE we've had since Bruce Smith, but that's not saying much.