Coleman: Sack leader of SEC goes Undrafted

[ParanoidAndroid]

http://www.buffalonews.com/2010/05/13/1049774/bills-get-coleman-off-back-burner.html

My first attempt at a mock had this guy as a 2nd round prospect because of that production. Obviously, something is missing with him, but there's something I'm wondering about how scouts end up passing on guys like this.

The workout warriors and superb athletes who get selected early, often have questionable production. Those are the guys who end up busts at a higher rate than those who have production to back up their measurables.

Then you have a history of these guys that produce at a high level, but because they don't have ideal measurables, they slip way down and sometimes don't even get drafted.

Here's what I'd like to know.

How many guys who have led one of the best conferences in college football at their position, go undrafted? Out of those, how many of them make a roster after signing a UDFA contact while the same team's mid-round picks get cut?

A thorough analysis of related statistics, in my mind, very well might change the way scouts and their teams go about making their draft boards.

[Griff]

wow, this is the type of kid that could make a surprising impact. With all the young 3-4 OLBers we have now one of them should develop into a playmaker.

[YardRat]

It is interesting how year-in and year-out guys like Moats and Batten get snatched up but these guys don't.

[DraftBoy]

He just didnt work out well and he disappears in big games. That's why he didnt get drafted.

One good year of play, combined with poor workouts and disappearing on film will really hurt you. Now I thought he would of definitely got drafted, but certainly not in Round 2. If the author had him in Round 2, he was looking only at stats.

[jamze132]

Well there are enough unknowns manning the OLB positions that at least one of them should be able to step up, hopefully.

[ParanoidAndroid]

He just didnt work out well and he disappears in big games. That's why he didnt get drafted.

One good year of play, combined with poor workouts and disappearing on film will really hurt you. Now I thought he would of definitely got drafted, but certainly not in Round 2. If the author had him in Round 2, he was looking only at stats.

Well.... I am a hack when it comes to scouting.... I see one game and I find the second coming of Cornelius Bennett. What can I say?

[DraftBoy]

Well.... I am a hack when it comes to scouting.... I see one game and I find the second coming of Cornelius Bennett. What can I say?

Id be stoked if he was but the fact that no other team picked him, doesn't really lend many to agree with how you saw him.

Its possible though plenty of other guys have gone undrafted and been successful. He just has to show up every play.

[Jeff1220]

Corey Moore had great stats/production too.

[dasaybz]

Corey Moore was the first guy I thought of when I read this thread.

He was tiny though.

I absolutely loved him in college, I was so psyched when they drafted him ... what a bust.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Id be stoked if he was but the fact that no other team picked him, doesn't really lend many to agree with how you saw him.

Its possible though plenty of other guys have gone undrafted and been successful. He just has to show up every play.

Well, my question was not so much about where I thought he would go back in January or how much I liked him. It was more about how so many slip through the cracks. There are several guys every year that make their respective teams via UDFA and the fact that all 32 teams passed on them says that it obviously isn't an infallible process. Is there a statistical analysis related to successful UDFA's and college production? That's what I would like to see. I'm looking for a trend, not banking on Coleman being one of the UDFA's turned All-pro.

[DraftBoy]

Well, my question was not so much about where I thought he would go back in January or how much I liked him. It was more about how so many slip through the cracks. There are several guys every year that make their respective teams via UDFA and the fact that all 32 teams passed on them says that it obviously isn't an infallible process. Is there a statistical analysis related to successful UDFA's and college production? That's what I would like to see. I'm looking for a trend, not banking on Coleman being one of the UDFA's turned All-pro.

Nothing close to conclusive, there are far too many variables in play.

Just too much to account for that can't solely be measured in college productivity to pro success.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Nothing close to conclusive, there are far too many variables in play.

Just too much to account for that can't solely be measured in college productivity to pro success.

We don't have to use all the variables. We could simplify things for ourselves at first. Let's say we start with UDFA's that made their team from 2000 to 2006 and were re-signed as RFA's. We can set a criteria for what accounts for "high college productivity." A leader in tackles on a team in a tough conference is an easy axample. From there, we go backwards to see what percentage of those UDFA's were highly productive and (for my own curiosity) what percentage of those, had "poor measurables" as a reason that they were passed over.
Data is very telling. Of course stats aren't everything, but just don't say that to Bill James.

[DraftBoy]

We don't have to use all the variables. We could simplify things for ourselves at first. Let's say we start with UDFA's that made their team from 2000 to 2006 and were re-signed as RFA's. We can set a criteria for what accounts for "high college productivity." A leader in tackles on a team in a tough conference is an easy axample. From there, we go backwards to see what percentage of those UDFA's were highly productive and (for my own curiosity) what percentage of those, had "poor measurables" as a reason that they were passed over.
Data is very telling. Of course stats aren't everything, but just don't say that to Bill James.

You're talking about a small data sample, but it could be done. Would take a lot of work though. I could be interested in doing it though.

[bigbub2352]

sometimes guy time like **** but play like a beast, u cant teach certain pass rush ability if he has it, hopefully it translates with the bills cause we need all the help we can get

[ParanoidAndroid]

You're talking about a small data sample, but it could be done. Would take a lot of work though. I could be interested in doing it though.

Well, if your interest is piqued enough, it might be worth doing..... If you could get me good links to resources, I could certainly do some work. If we see something and when there's time, we could broaden the sample.

[jamze132]

The offseason is boring isn't it...

[ZAZusmc03]

The offseason is boring isn't it...

Sure is. But I would rather see stuff like this, as opposed to the worthless crap, like Whitner throwing a hissyfit on twitter.