Why this team will PROBALLY NOT go 8-8 [Archive] - BillsZone.com

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more cowbell

06-08-2010, 05:20 PM

Based on career-long NFL Performance...

QB: Edwards (D), Fitzpatrick (D), Brohm (F)

RB: Jackson (B), Spiller (?), Lynch (C)

FB: McIntryre (F)

WR: Evans (C), Parrish (D), Hardy (F), Johnson (F), Jackson (F), Easley (?)

TE: Nelson (D), Schouman (D), Matthews (D)

LT: Bell (F), Meredith (F)

LG: Levitre (B), Ramsey (F)

C: Hangartner (D)

RG: Wood (?), Chambers (F)

RT: Green (D), Wang (?)

------------------------------------------
LE: Edwards (C), Johnson (D)

RE: Stroud (B), Carrington (?)

NT: Williams (C), Troup (?)

LOLB: Kelsay (D), Batten (?)

MLB: Posluszny (B), Davis (B), Mitchell (C), Torbor (C)

ROLB: Maybin (?), Ellis (F)

CB: McGee (B), McKelvin (C), Florence (C), Corner (D)

FS: Byrd (A), Wilson (C)

SS: Whitner (D), Scott (C)

This is one of the more in experienced rosters in the NFL. Combine that with the fact that most of our "starters" are below average players (see Kelsay and Hangartner).

This years rookie class could be a nice suprise...but expecting them to contribute immediatley and effectively is not being realistic at all.

Every single starter on defense minus Dwan Edwards and Andra Davis have never played in a 3-4 defense.

Our Coach hasn't been a head coach in the NFL in a decade, and was firfired from an Offensive Coordinator job with the Chiefs last season. Not exactly encouraging, other than the fact he isn't Jauron which is GREAT news don't get me wrong.

Other than the hope and pride us Buffalo fans have every season, despite repeated failure...what is there to be optimistic about? We haven't beaten a team we play TWO times a season since 2003...(yup just thought I would throw that in there too)

I love Buffalo, I love the Bills....say what you will about me not being a "true" fan but I love the team just as much as you do...I just have realistic expectations until they FINALLY prove us wrong.

buffalobillsfan95

06-08-2010, 05:21 PM

look at all the (?)

X-Era

06-08-2010, 05:28 PM

My answer to your title is one word:

Quarterback

BertSquirtgum

06-08-2010, 05:45 PM

you should stick to playing more cowbell rather than trying to predict what the outcome of this teams future is goingt to be. every single veteran player on this team have been jauroned and with some work, i think they can be fixed. we won't know until pre-season though. take a break from negative town for a bit.

mrbojanglezs

06-08-2010, 05:57 PM

gailey's history of making the most out of his bad qbs in the past have me holding out hope.

gailey even said himself that being in the league 3 years with 4 different coordinators is equivalent to being in the league 1.5 years.

there is a lot of unproven talent that can emerge in the 3-4: maybin, ellis, troup, carrington.

davis and edwards makes our run D better.

gailey should be able to bring this offense to the 20-22 range.

at #2 wr we have easly, johnson, and hardy. ONe of them can emerge.

D bell looks bigger and is 1 year more experienced, remember he just started playing organized football like 5 years ago. Meredith also has promise.

So this team can swing either way. for the worse it can be 3 wins or for the good about 8 wins.

Going off gailey's past endeavorer i think we will swing up and surprise and win in the 7 to 9 wins range

WeAreArthurMoates

06-08-2010, 07:02 PM

I predict you will be wrong.

PromoTheRobot

06-08-2010, 10:39 PM

My answer to your title is one word:

Quarterback

6 wins last year with Fitz. 7 wins the two previous years with Trent. I don't see how this team got worse since 2009. If the Bills can win 6 with Fitz at QB, a patchwork O-line, AVP thrown into the OC job, and a head coach fired mid-season, then they can win 8 or 9 with the same guys, fewer injuries, and a better offensive coach in Gailey.

PTR

Dujek

06-09-2010, 07:07 AM

6 wins last year with Fitz. 7 wins the two previous years with Trent. I don't see how this team got worse since 2009. If the Bills can win 6 with Fitz at QB, a patchwork O-line, AVP thrown into the OC job, and a head coach fired mid-season, then they can win 8 or 9 with the same guys, fewer injuries, and a better offensive coach in Gailey.

PTR

The only thing against that is that the Bills have a tougher schedule this year. They should still win at least 6 games though.

Buffalogic

06-09-2010, 07:13 AM

6 wins last year with Fitz. 7 wins the two previous years with Trent. I don't see how this team got worse since 2009. If the Bills can win 6 with Fitz at QB, a patchwork O-line, AVP thrown into the OC job, and a head coach fired mid-season, then they can win 8 or 9 with the same guys, fewer injuries, and a better offensive coach in Gailey.

PTR
No doubt. People who predict less than 5 wins are just crybaby haters.

madness

06-09-2010, 08:17 AM

The only thing against that is that the Bills have a tougher schedule this year. They should still win at least 6 games though.

I never buy into the whole strength of schedule thing. Teams can go from top to bottom, bottom to top in a single season. It's value is comparable to a mock draft.

X-Era

06-09-2010, 04:08 PM

6 wins last year with Fitz. 7 wins the two previous years with Trent. I don't see how this team got worse since 2009. If the Bills can win 6 with Fitz at QB, a patchwork O-line, AVP thrown into the OC job, and a head coach fired mid-season, then they can win 8 or 9 with the same guys, fewer injuries, and a better offensive coach in Gailey.

PTR

I can, add in all new schemes on O and D that could take years to get the players for, let alone master and you've got the recipe for trouble.

X-Era

06-09-2010, 04:09 PM

No doubt. People who predict less than 5 wins are just crybaby haters.

Id like it if you were right, trust me.

Johnny Bugmenot

06-09-2010, 05:21 PM

6 wins last year with Fitz. 7 wins the two previous years with Trent. I don't see how this team got worse since 2009. If the Bills can win 6 with Fitz at QB, a patchwork O-line, AVP thrown into the OC job, and a head coach fired mid-season, then they can win 8 or 9 with the same guys, fewer injuries, and a better offensive coach in Gailey.

PTR
The defense held them in a lot of games, PTR. With that facet of the game now in flux, the anemic offense now gets spotlighted.

Philagape

06-09-2010, 05:31 PM

The defense held them in a lot of games, PTR. With that facet of the game now in flux, the anemic offense now gets spotlighted.

How much worse can the defense get?
The run D was abysmal.
The pass rush was mediocre.
The secondary was the strength, and that should only get better with McKelvin back.

more cowbell

06-09-2010, 10:42 PM

How much worse can the defense get?
The run D was abysmal.
The pass rush was mediocre.
The secondary was the strength, and that should only get better with McKelvin back.

How did we win 6 games last season? It wasn't because our offense kept us in games. For as bad as our D was stat wise they kept us in almost every game...until the 4th quarter

SABURZFAN

06-09-2010, 10:56 PM

No doubt. People who predict less than 5 wins are just crybaby haters.

i disagree. the Bills haven't done much to improve this team.

G Wolly

06-09-2010, 11:17 PM

i disagree. the Bills haven't done much to improve this team.

Wrong.

We got rid of Jauron.

Buffalogic

06-09-2010, 11:43 PM

i disagree. the Bills haven't done much to improve this team.
Even if they don't improve they are still a six win team. That's why thinking they are going to win 1-4 games this season is a stretch.

Philagape

06-10-2010, 01:07 AM

How did we win 6 games last season? It wasn't because our offense kept us in games. For as bad as our D was stat wise they kept us in almost every game...until the 4th quarter

I don't dispute that; I was asking why it's assumed they'll be worse.

X-Era

06-10-2010, 05:33 AM

How much worse can the defense get?
The run D was abysmal.
The pass rush was mediocre.
The secondary was the strength, and that should only get better with McKelvin back.

I think they can play worse if their heads are swimming with new schemes. A few years back we had that problem when Jauron came in. I remember watching DB's pointing at each other as the WR ran between them for a TD.

Add in that Gailey is pounding them fast with the plays, by his own admission... could lead to some players being lost for a while.

jamze132

06-10-2010, 09:16 AM

Well canning Jauron should net us 3-5 wins, but I regress, we are a 3-5 win team right now until everyone learns the new systems.

BertSquirtgum

06-10-2010, 11:29 AM

6-10 all the way. 7-9 or 8-8 if they have horseshoes up their asses in a couple of games.

PromoTheRobot

06-10-2010, 03:35 PM

The defense held them in a lot of games, PTR. With that facet of the game now in flux, the anemic offense now gets spotlighted.

The D didn't forget how to play football. They aren't learning how to split an atom here. And our anemic offense now has a coach known as a creative playcaller, and he has a weapon called CJ Spiller. But keep on hatin' if it makes you feel better.

PTR

better days

06-11-2010, 03:50 PM

Well canning Jauron should net us 3-5 wins, but I regress, we are a 3-5 win team right now until everyone learns the new systems.

I hope you are right about this year because I think the only way this team makes a drastic improvment is to have a top 6 draft pick. Yes they need a LT but QB is the #1 need & it will take a very high pick to get one of the best prospects.

tat2dmike77

06-11-2010, 04:41 PM

I just want too know who ranked the players?

SABURZFAN

06-13-2010, 11:41 PM

Wrong.

We got rid of Jauron.

yeah.... the team turned into a powerhouse when Fewell took over. :rolleyes:

DrGraves

06-13-2010, 11:48 PM

lee evans isnt a game changer but he isn't a C either. and you forget spiller is an A+

ddaryl

06-14-2010, 07:24 AM

I'm a beleiver that coaching is difference maker.

This year is all about what gailey can do for us, and little else

Cleve

06-14-2010, 07:49 AM

lee evans isnt a game changer but he isn't a C either. and you forget spiller is an A+

I'm frankly unsure how good Lee Evans is - it's been years since the team has had a capable quarterback that could actually employ him. Evans and T.O. could have sat in the locker room watching movies for most of the season last year.

I'm assuming, though, that if Evans were really good, he'd have migrated to another team with a decent quarterback where he might be able to put up some stats. Given that he hasn't, it appears he's more interested in drawing a weekly paycheck than anything else.

Griff

06-15-2010, 07:57 AM

Evans a C?

madness

06-15-2010, 08:11 AM

Maybe Lee Evans isn't a game changer because nobody can get him the damn ball...

As for the receivers with the best hands? Five players were not registered with a single drop, including Greg Camarillo (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/23246/greg-camarillo) (73 targets), Robert Meachem (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16506/robert-meachem) (66), Pierre Thomas (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17049/pierre-thomas) (45), Brian Westbrook (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17174/brian-westbrook) (34), and Delanie Walker (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17124/delanie-walker) (33). T.J. Houshmandzadeh (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16142/tj-houshmandzadeh) only dropped two passes on 140 targets, which seems like a function of his usage pattern, but it's hard to reconcile that logic when Lee Evans (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15799/lee-evans) only dropped one of the 95 targets thrown to him.
Finally, the two-year totals (minimum: 30 targets in each season). The "best hands" group would have made for a hell of an offense in their respective peaks, with Brian Westbrook (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/17174/brian-westbrook) (0.9 percent Drop Rate) at halfback, Sidney Rice (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/16763/sidney-rice) (1.3 percent) and Lee Evans (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15799/lee-evans) (1.5 percent) at wideout, and Tony Gonzalez (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/player/15929/tony-gonzalez) (1.7 percent) catching whatever's left at tight end.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/offensive-drop-rate

Griff

06-15-2010, 08:30 AM

Maybe Lee Evans isn't a game changer because nobody can get him the damn ball...

the problem is the route running

madness

06-15-2010, 08:40 AM

:spit:

madness

06-15-2010, 10:49 AM

Evans ranks high for hands (http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2010/06/15/evans-ranks-high-for-hands/)

By Chris Brown - Posted June 15, 2010 – 9:33 am
Football Outsiders is always crunching numbers and in assessing best hands and drop rate, Lee Evans is among the best in the league over the past two years.
In their report on defensive drop rate they also list the five players with the best hands (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/offensive-drop-rate). Over the past two years Evans had a drop rate of 1.5 percent good for third in the league. In fact last season of the 95 times Evans was thrown the ball he had just one drop.
Those are the kind of numbers expected from a number one receiver and Evans has always had strong hands. Ahead of him on the list were Brian Westbrook and Sidney Rice.

Johnny Bugmenot

06-16-2010, 10:53 AM

and you forget spiller is an A+ That's hilarious-- dude, he hasn't even set foot on an NFL field yet. He could be the running back equivalent of Ryan Leaf, for all we know.

CoolBreeze

06-18-2010, 10:41 PM