Over or under? Buffalo Bills

[madness]

Over or under? Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/14809/over-or-under-buffalo-bills)
Using 2010 statistical projections from ESPN.com's fantasy analysts, Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell and I pick over or under for three players from each AFC East team. We start with the Buffalo Bills.
http://www.billszone.com/mt/images/newsicons/bills.gif ESPN/Tim Graham | Posted at 10:01 AM

1. Rookie running back C.J. Spiller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=13203), 1,152 yards from scrimmage

2. Wide receiver Lee Evans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=5538), 54 catches

3. Safety Jairus Byrd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=12613), five interceptions

[wmoz11]

Under, over, under.

[hydro]

Under, over, under.

+1

[Pinkerton Security]

Under, over, over...just to be different ( i dont think byrd will have 5 though)

[psubills62]

Over, over, push

1. How hard is it really to get above that many yards from scrimmage? I expect Spiller to get about 10+ touches each week just to start, and probably will end up splitting touches with Jackson at the end. Spiller would need to average 72 yards per game for that to happen, with rushing and receiving. Should happen.

2. Evans is the only real receiving option we've got. Gailey will know enough to go to him. His YPC will go down most likely, but his receptions will be much higher.

3. I'd like to say over, but that seems a little too homeristic. I'm sure QB's will throw away from him (as much as possible for a FS), but he had 9 in 13 games...to drop to 5 in 16 games is a serious decline. Sophomore slumps happen a lot though, so I'll say push.

[dannyek71]

Under, over, under

[trapezeus]

over, under over.

i think total yards with passing and rushing, stiller has to get over a 1000 yards easily. he's a game changer. that's what he's been billed as. i hope for a change our 1st round pick lives up to expectations.

evans is useless. he'll find a way to suck again and blame everyone else for his shortcomings. of course, i would love for him to actually play well, but i'm not counting on it. he wasn't open with TO on the field. He isn't going to be open with hardy, johnson and a rookie.

Byrd, i think he's going to get better. i think 5 is a good number to set the bar at, but i think he'll get a couple early, be thrown away from, and then find a way to pick off some more. I think 1BD should stock up on Byrd jerseys because i could see those moving fast by october when he has 3 in 4 games.

[Pinkerton Security]

the one im torn on is Spiller, it depends on how much we give him the ball, especially early on in the season. if they try to work him into the rotation for 4 or 5 weeks and THEN pick up his workload, he may have a tough time getting 1100 yards, but if he is immediately getting 10 or more touches a game, i tihnk he'll surpass it.

[OpIv37]

Under, Under, push

[DraftBoy]

Under, Over, Under

If it was all purpose yards for Spiller, Id go O-O-U, but its not.

[Beebe's Kid]

Under, Over, Under

If it was all purpose yards for Spiller, Id go O-O-U, but its not.

I agree with DB.

[OpIv37]

Stop and think for a second: how is Spiller going to get 1,152 yards from scrimmage on a terrible offense while sharing time with Lynch and Jackson? It doesn't make sense.

[k-oneputt]

Spiller better be getting 10 or more touches a game. Why the hell did they draft him if he doesn't get them ? OVER.
Gailey is ten times smarter offensively then Dickjob, that alone will get Evans the ball more. OVER.
Byrd is a "centerfielder", tough to avoid a free safety like a corner. OVER.

[better days]

Stop and think for a second: how is Spiller going to get 1,152 yards from scrimmage on a terrible offense while sharing time with Lynch and Jackson? It doesn't make sense.

All purpose yds 1,152 shoud be no problem, especially if Trent is QB. Trent will throw to Spiller more than Evans. For that reason over, under, over. If Brohm or Fitz were to win the starters job at QB, over, over, over.

[ServoBillieves]

Under, Over, Over.

That, IF, they're healthy for all 16 games this season.

If Jairus misses time it's a push.

It could very easily be under under under.

[psubills62]

Stop and think for a second: how is Spiller going to get 1,152 yards from scrimmage on a terrible offense while sharing time with Lynch and Jackson? It doesn't make sense.
Lynch is little more than insurance. Spiller is the guy this regime brought in as their first round draft pick, he will get his touches. He should lead our backfield in receptions, and he's much, much more prone to breaking big runs than either Jackson or Lynch. Historically, when Gailey is in charge of an offense, despite the personnel, he still gets results. The offense should be significantly better than in 2009.

EDIT: and as better days mentioned, if Edwards is the QB, who do you think he's going to throw to, the WR's or RB's?

[justasportsfan]

Stop and think for a second: how is Spiller going to get 1,152 yards from scrimmage on a terrible offense while sharing time with Lynch and Jackson? It doesn't make sense.


Unless he runs like Arian Peterson from day one, I think both Fred and Lynch takes the bulk of the runs . Plus he'll be lined up at wr at times plus returning kicks .

[k-oneputt]

As mentioned, Spillers big play potential will come into play. He needs to avg. 72 yds a game. Very doable.

This regime isn't taking a top-10 pick to sit him on the bench like the previous idiots.

[trapezeus]

i think spiller is going to be put on a quick learning curve. if he shows any explosiveness and any grasp of the playbook in week 1, he's get more playing time faster than the lynch. lynch in my mind is being asked to slam into a wall on 3rd and 3 and make it. if he doesn't do that well, they'll yank him and come up with other plays.

i really think spiller is the featured back by week 3 with jackson giving him a spell when he needs it. lynch will be invisible by design.

[psubills62]

i think spiller is going to be put on a quick learning curve. if he shows any explosiveness and any grasp of the playbook in week 1, he's get more playing time faster than the lynch. lynch in my mind is being asked to slam into a wall on 3rd and 3 and make it. if he doesn't do that well, they'll yank him and come up with other plays.

i really think spiller is the featured back by week 3 with jackson giving him a spell when he needs it. lynch will be invisible by design.

I pretty much agree with everything you've said, although I think Spiller will take a little longer to become the feature back.

Everything I've read says he's impressed in camp, and that he's already lining up in the slot and out wide. They'll get him a lot of screen and swing passes most likely. I understand we've got a deep backfield, but the fact that this regime knew that, but still took Spiller with their first pick tells me they will give him a major role. I see Lynch being a typical 3rd-string back, honestly.

[mayotm]

Stop and think for a second: how is Spiller going to get 1,152 yards from scrimmage on a terrible offense while sharing time with Lynch and Jackson? It doesn't make sense.End of discussion. The mighty OP has spoken.

[Jan Reimers]

Over-Over-Over.

[jamze132]

Stop and think for a second: how is Spiller going to get 1,152 yards from scrimmage on a terrible offense while sharing time with Lynch and Jackson? It doesn't make sense.
It especially doesn't make any sense if you use the Chewbacca defense.

You'll have to watch South Park season 2, episode "Chef Aid" to understand that.

[jamze132]

For the record, I say...

Under - Over - Under

[Mr. Pink]

3 unders

[Spiderweb]

Over, over, push

1. How hard is it really to get above that many yards from scrimmage? I expect Spiller to get about 10+ touches each week just to start, and probably will end up splitting touches with Jackson at the end. Spiller would need to average 72 yards per game for that to happen, with rushing and receiving. Should happen.

2. Evans is the only real receiving option we've got. Gailey will know enough to go to him. His YPC will go down most likely, but his receptions will be much higher.

3. I'd like to say over, but that seems a little too homeristic. I'm sure QB's will throw away from him (as much as possible for a FS), but he had 9 in 13 games...to drop to 5 in 16 games is a serious decline. Sophomore slumps happen a lot though, so I'll say push.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Spiller gain more yardage receiving this year than running. I see him more as a third down back initially.

[Eventually]

Over or under? Buffalo Bills (http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/14809/over-or-under-buffalo-bills)
Using 2010 statistical projections from ESPN.com's fantasy analysts, Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell and I pick over or under for three players from each AFC East team. We start with the Buffalo Bills.
http://www.billszone.com/mt/images/newsicons/bills.gif ESPN/Tim Graham | Posted at 10:01 AM

1. Rookie running back C.J. Spiller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=13203), 1,152 yards from scrimmage

2. Wide receiver Lee Evans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=5538), 54 catches

3. Safety Jairus Byrd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=12613), five interceptions

Spiller-Over I see about 1400, 850 rush, 650 rec. 13 tds incl ret.

Evans- Over I see around 73 catches 1170 8 TDs

Byrd, Over gonna go with 6.

Woops- just realized all you wanted was o/u, oh well a bit extra anyhow.

[psubills62]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Spiller gain more yardage receiving this year than running. I see him more as a third down back initially.

I think he'll be used extensively in the passing game too, as Edwards is obviously more comfortable throwing to the RB's, and we have no real #2 WR. He'll still get plenty of touches in the running game, though.

[ZAZusmc03]

I think he'll be used extensively in the passing game too, as Edwards is obviously more comfortable throwing to the RB's, and we have no real #2 WR. He'll still get plenty of touches in the running game, though.

I think we will see Spiller having the most success in recieving from the slot. I can see them using him all over the field.

[DraftBoy]

I think we will see Spiller having the most success in recieving from the slot. I can see them using him all over the field.

Dont know how successful that will be. He is a pretty raw route runner as a slot receiving option. More effective receiver out of the backfield.

[The Compromise]

[/URL]

1. Rookie running back [URL="http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=13203"]C.J. Spiller (http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/14809/over-or-under-buffalo-bills), 1,152 yards from scrimmage

2. Wide receiver Lee Evans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=5538), 54 catches

3. Safety Jairus Byrd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=12613), five interceptions

Under, Over, Over

[Johnny Bugmenot]

1. Under- Mark it, Spiller will suffer a major injury this year.
2. Over
3. Over, but not by much-- maybe 6 or 7

[ZAZusmc03]

Dont know how successful that will be. He is a pretty raw route runner as a slot receiving option. More effective receiver out of the backfield.

I was thinking more of a drop back screen from the slot, or quick slants. Nothing too crazy, Then the occational streak down the field.

[Novacane]

Over because I think Spiller will be getting the majority of the carries by week 8
Over because any #1 reciever should be able to average 3.5 catches a game no matter how bad thier QB's are
Over because Byrd is the word :jig:

[Novacane]

1. Under- Mark it, Spiller will suffer a major injury this year.



:negrep:

[Ingtar33]

1. Rookie running back C.J. Spiller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=13203), 1,152 yards from scrimmage
-under

2. Wide receiver Lee Evans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=5538), 54 catches
-over

3. Safety Jairus Byrd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=12613), five interceptions
-over

[Johnny Bugmenot]

:negrep: The good news is that I'm a lousy prophet.