Draft Theory

[Mike]

When I hear about wanting to build a Champion exclusively through the draft I cringe. When I look at talent evaluators, it seems that certain GMs, Coaches, have a better feel for some positions than others, and are laking at picking well at those other positions. Here are some examples:

Bills:

Strengths: have historically picked really good DBs dating back to early 90's. Some other teams can not get a good DB to save their life. Even under Jouron, picking CBs was a strength of the Team and overall the Bills were better at it than the average.

Weakness: Conversely, we have had a hard time picking O-Line and D-Linemen. In fact only 1 Lineman drafted by the Bills has made a Pro Bowl in the Last Decade.

Improved: Remeber Antione Smith? During his tenure in Buffalo, the Bills could not find a good RB even if it hit them in the Face, and in fact if almost did. Sammy Morris was on the Team at that time and flashed at times only to be let go. Then can Donohue who changed that weakness into a strength. The Bill have held onto those lessons.

Patriots:

Strength: QB, O-Line, D-Line, DB, LB
Pats went from a perennial Pro Bowl QB Bledslow to a Future HOF in Brady...
The Lines also improved and the Pats drafted very well even into the late rounds.
From Bruski to Mayo, the Pats are trying to restock the O-Line
CB: Lost both Starters last season to FA. In the past they had Law & Milloy, then went to Asanee Samuel & Harrison, now they are restocking.

Weakness: WR & RB
Could not draft a Great WR, not even a very good one. Its obvious that Brady made Patten & Branch who have all but dissapeared. After they were replaced with Moss & Walked, Brady exploded from being a 26TD/yr type QB to getting 50TDs in 1 season and going undefeated.

Remember Bledso's RB after Martin left? No, me neither. The Pats missed on Maroney, but made stides in signing key vets.

Jets:
Strengths: D-Line, LB, CB
DT have been good for as long as I can remember. Even when they loose a guy they still manage to have a Pro-Bowler type DT year after year. Their LB selections have also been good. THey re-tool quickly wihtout missing a beat. Revis makes the secondary scary good.

Weakness: WR,
When is the last time the Jest had a dominant WR? Johnson was never diminant, Coles was very good at best, and now their WR are a bunch of FAs. Jets not great at drafting WR.

Improved: QB
Still a ? but if Sanchez improves in 2nd year, definite improvement in organization.

Dolphins: can really judge after 2nd season under the Tuna.

Other Historical Examples:
1980's & 1990's 49ers: Great at getting a Great QB: Montana to Young, On the downside, they were awful at finding the right kicker.
Baltimore Ravens: Until recently, they were great at picking defense and aweful at picking QBs.
1990's Dolphins: great offense year after year, aweful RBs until the 2000's.

So in conclusion, a Team should know its drafting strengths and weaknesses and fill those weaknesses by getting FA to fill those positions and make them into Team strength ala the Pats.

Well, what do you Think? Does it seem to you that certain Teams are really good at picking certain positions and can't get other to right to save their life, or more accurately, their careers?

[JCBills]

Aaron Schobel and Kyle Williams went to the pro bowl. So did Peters but he was undrafted.

Nice writeup though.

[mightysimi]

Young was drafted by TB after the USFL went down. But agree it is a good write up.

[ServoBillieves]

All this really says is that if you draft well and fill in your needs through free agency you can be a good team...

[Mike]

Here are a few more examples:
GB: From Farve to Rogers, they know what a really good QN looks like.
Denver: How many different no name 1,000yrd rushers did they have?
Minesota: 1990's WR, remember Chris Carter? Later they got Moss...

Anyways the examples are numerious! The point is that very seldom do you have a GM/talent evaluators who are great at picking all the positions, so to have a policy of primarly building via the draft will make you really strong in some positions and really weak at others (bills rb&cb vs lines/rest if team)

For the bills to take build via draft only stand really means to me that they eighter have to instantly become great evaluators across the board or we will only be good at a few positions and continue to be mediocre at all the rest!

[YardRat]

Parcells has been in Miami two full seasons.

And, not to be critical, but why 'hold' on Miami to give Parcells more time, but the new regime in Buffalo gets lumped in with the past, when they haven't even played a game yet?

[Mr. Pink]

Here are a few more examples:
GB: From Farve to Rogers, they know what a really good QN looks like.
Denver: How many different no name 1,000yrd rushers did they have?
Minesota: 1990's WR, remember Chris Carter? Later they got Moss...

Anyways the examples are numerious! The point is that very seldom do you have a GM/talent evaluators who are great at picking all the positions, so to have a policy of primarly building via the draft will make you really strong in some positions and really weak at others (bills rb&cb vs lines/rest if team)

For the bills to take build via draft only stand really means to me that they eighter have to instantly become great evaluators across the board or we will only be good at a few positions and continue to be mediocre at all the rest!


Except your examples here are wrong.

Favre was drafted by Atlanta. Carter was drafted by Philadelphia.

[Mike]

YardRat
Great Question: why does Miami's Tuna not get lumped with the past like Buffalo and their new regime?

Well, Parcels was a completely new regime change, and he himself being one of the best talent evaluators will bring his own strengths and weaknesses to Dolphins franchise. In other words, it was a complete discontinuation from the past.

As for the Bills, look at their Talent Evaluators, their GM, and some of the other familiar faces. Now add the fact that no one considers Gaily to be in the same stratosphere as Parcels and you have what you have. The Bills did not break from the past, they still have Modrack, they still have Buddy Nix (was with team last year) and most importantly they still have Ralph Wilson, who is a known meddler. As you can see, its apples and oranges.

[Mike]

Except your examples here are wrong.

Favre was drafted by Atlanta. Carter was drafted by Philadelphia.

This is where it gets murky but the point is still clear. GM Ron Wold intended on taking Favre with the Jets in 1991, but the Falcons took him the pick right before the Jets. In 92, Wolf joined Green Bay and immediately traded for Favre. The point is that this GM had the vision to see the value in a guy like Favre and later on, this vision was learned by many of the talents and evaluators on the GB team, so it was easier for them to later spot talent and scoop it up at that same position.

Here is a Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Favre#Atlanta_Falcons_.281991.29

In the early 90's Minnesota was a Team many thought was 1RB away from a SB win which was why they traded for Hershel Walker. When they got Carter they already had a great Passing game and really good receivers. In fact, Carter did nothing there his 1st season. In this case, Minnesota, was good at scouting WR talent and was able to find an underachiever with a load of talent in FA and develop him. r

Anyway, I think the point is that certain talent evaluators are great at evaluating some positions better than others. If you only build via the draft you will only be able to go as high as your scouting department. If you build through both, FA & Draft, now you are using others scouting & real game tape vs pros.