Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

[Pinkerton Security]

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Currently going two rounds later than C.J. Spiller, I said it on our podcast and I will say it here: Fred Jackson will be the best fantasy running back in Buffalo this year. Did you know he was actually the 16th best fantasy running back last year? He'll get the majority of touches compared to Spiller (who is more of a home run threat). ESPN researcher Gregory Found, of Matt Forte entry fame, also looked at running backs under new Bills coach Chan Gailey for me.
Check out these stats:
Running backs under Chan Gailey

1998 Cowboys	Rushes	Yards	TDs	Yards per game	Rec	Rec yards	Rec TDs
Emmitt Smith	319.0	1332	13	83.3	27	175	2
Sherman Williams	64.0	220	1	13.8	11	104	0

1999 Cowboys	Rushes	Yards	TDs	Yards per game	Rec	Rec yards	Rec TDs
Emmitt Smith	329.0	1397	11	93.1	27	119	2
Chris Warren	99.0	403	2	25.2	34	224	0

2000 Dolphins	Rushes	Yards	TDs	Yards per game	Rec	Rec yards	Rec TDs
Lamar Smith	309.0	1139	14	75.9	31	201	2
Thurman Thomas	28.0	136	0	15.1	16	117	1

2001 Dolphins	Rushes	Yards	TDs	Yards per game	Rec	Rec yards	Rec TDs
Lamar Smith	313.0	968	6	60.5	30	234	2
Travis Minor	59.0	281	2	17.6	29	263	1

2008 Chiefs	Rushes	Yards	TDs	Yards per game	Rec	Rec yards	Rec TDs
Larry Johnson	193.0	874	5	72.8	12	74	0
Jamaal Charles	67.0	357	0	22.3	27	272	1

Two things jump out. First, there's no time-share here. At all. Obviously, you have an Emmitt Smith, he's your workhorse. But you can't tell me Lamar Smith is some amazing talent that had to have 300 touches. Gainey's MO has been that one guy carries the majority of the load. Spiller is not built to be that kind of guy.


Second, notice how many receptions the second guy gets in each case despite not being on the field nearly as much. Some of that is dictated by the skill level of both runners at catching passes, but still. Even though Jackson is a very good pass-catcher (further underscoring him as the guy in this offense), Spiller will see a good many balls. Both are talented, but Jackson will represent the far better fantasy value this year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10tmrlovehate

[TMu11]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

I don't think that the past will dictate what Gailey plans on doing with the Bills this year. He has a 3 headed running threat and would be stupid not to use it to his advantage. I highly doubt you will see the same trend continue.

[BertSquirtgum]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

i think whoever wrote this is wrong.

[trapezeus]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

i think it's an interesting find in historical stats. gailey isn't exactly a spring chicken. he probably follows his tendenacies without even knowing it.

it makes a lot of sense because it gives spiller a chance to learn throughout the year but remain a homerun threat. it gives the backfield more room to split between lynch and jackson.

it might be the best way to get all 3 on the field regularly.

[psubills62]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

I saw that today and it made me think, but here's a question I'd have for Matthew Berry (the guy who wrote that): how many of those 2nd-string RB's did Gailey choose in the first round of the draft prior to that year? The answer would be none.

There's a reason Gailey and co. picked Spiller so early and so quickly (Don't even know if Goodell was done reading Rolando McClain's name before Spiller was selected). I think Berry dismisses Spiller's workhorse capabilities too quickly. He's not physically built like most workhorse RB's, but Spiller can handle 15-20 touches per game easily. Spiller is also much more talented than Jackson (though I love what Jackson brings to this team).

[madness]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Lynch fits the workhorse profile more than Jackson and has the most limited skill set between the three. I still think Gailey wants Lynch to return to form and be the primary ball carrier while he uses Jackson and Spiller to create mismatches elsewhere on the field.

[k-oneputt]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Gailey didn't draft Spiller to give him a dozen touches a game. Jackson and Lynch are the old regime, Spiller is the guy.

[justasportsfan]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Gailey didn't draft Spiller to give him a dozen touches a game.

In his rookie year, I expect that much only.

Pound and soften up defenses with Lynch and Jackson and then send in the homerun hitter in Spiller.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Jackson will get about 20 touches per game.

Spiller 10.

Lynch 2.

[k-oneputt]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Jackson will get about 20 touches per game.

Spiller 10.

Lynch 2.

So you are saying one of the worst teams in the league wasted another top-12 draft pick on a player with minimal production ? No. Dick and his band of idiots are gone. This guy will be used.

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

So you are saying one of the worst teams in the league wasted another top-12 draft pick on a player with minimal production ? No. Dick and his band of idiots are gone. This guy will be used.

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

[EDS]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

I don't think Spiller's build is what will limit him - Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson are the same size. That said, for every smallish back like Charles or Johnson that emerges as a workhorse back there are plenty that do not become more than change of pace backs (i.e., Reggie Bush, Leon Washington, etc.).

If he is tough enough and the system is designed to utilize his talents he can be a 1000+ yard back early in his career. Whether he gets that chance with Jackson and Lynch on the roster remains to be seen.

I would not be surprised to see Spiller lined up in the slot on passing downs.

[dasaybz]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

Abso****inglutely no way. Comparing Spiller to Metcalf is ****ing idiotic.

Bush was supposed to be a workhorse coming out of college, he's too much of a pussy and doesn't run inside.

Spiller is a beast and will run up the gut. This dude isn't small, why do people think he's some 3rd down back that will be a full time kick and punt returner? This dude is legit and is going to touch the ball a ton. His carries may be limited this year, but next year and the years after that, I will almost guarantee you that he will be a 300 carry back.

[Beebe's Kid]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

Abso****inglutely no way. Comparing Spiller to Metcalf is ****ing idiotic.

Bush was supposed to be a workhorse coming out of college, he's too much of a pussy and doesn't run inside.

Spiller is a beast and will run up the gut. This dude isn't small, why do people think he's some 3rd down back that will be a full time kick and punt returner? This dude is legit and is going to touch the ball a ton. His carries may be limited this year, but next year and the years after that, I will almost guarantee you that he will be a 300 carry back.

Well said.

Where the **** does the idea come from that Spiller is some 12 touch per game back. If Spiller has 12 touches that is only because he busted of a few 30+ yarders.

I know the negative-****-attitude is a result of the last ten years, blah blah ****ing blah.... but these guys drafted a top tier talent that will be giving even the negative *****s little boners by the 4th week of this season.

[ParanoidAndroid]

Re: Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

I can tell you one thing. This offense will finally be able to run a screen.... both over the top and jailbreak. Spiller will scare defenses in that regard.