Some interesting stats about RB's under Chan..

[Pinkerton Security]

Fred Jackson (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=10195')), RB, Bills: Currently going two rounds later than C.J. Spiller (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=13203')), I said it on our podcast and I will say it here: Fred Jackson will be the best fantasy running back in Buffalo this year. Did you know he was actually the 16th best fantasy running back last year? He'll get the majority of touches compared to Spiller (who is more of a home run threat). ESPN researcher Gregory Found, of Matt Forte entry fame, also looked at running backs under new Bills coach Chan Gailey for me.
Check out these stats:
Running backs under Chan Gailey

<table><thead> <tr><th> 1998 Cowboys </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> TDs </th><th> Yards per game </th><th> Rec </th><th> Rec yards </th><th> Rec TDs </th></tr></thead> <tbody><tr class="last"><td> Emmitt Smith (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=72')) </td><td> 319.0 </td><td> 1332 </td><td> 13 </td><td> 83.3 </td><td> 27 </td><td> 175 </td><td> 2 </td></tr> <tr class="last"><td> Sherman Williams (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=739')) </td><td> 64.0 </td><td> 220 </td><td> 1 </td><td> 13.8 </td><td> 11 </td><td> 104 </td><td> 0 </td></tr></tbody></table><table><thead><tr><th> 1999 Cowboys </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> TDs </th><th> Yards per game </th><th> Rec </th><th> Rec yards </th><th> Rec TDs </th></tr></thead> <tbody><tr class="last"><td> Emmitt Smith </td><td> 329.0 </td><td> 1397 </td><td> 11 </td><td> 93.1 </td><td> 27 </td><td> 119 </td><td> 2 </td></tr> <tr class="last"><td> Chris Warren (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=80')) </td><td> 99.0 </td><td> 403 </td><td> 2 </td><td> 25.2 </td><td> 34 </td><td> 224 </td><td> 0 </td></tr></tbody></table><table><thead><tr><th> 2000 Dolphins </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> TDs </th><th> Yards per game </th><th> Rec </th><th> Rec yards </th><th> Rec TDs </th></tr></thead> <tbody><tr class="last"><td> Lamar Smith (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=603')) </td><td> 309.0 </td><td> 1139 </td><td> 14 </td><td> 75.9 </td><td> 31 </td><td> 201 </td><td> 2 </td></tr> <tr class="last"><td> Thurman Thomas (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=4')) </td><td> 28.0 </td><td> 136 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 15.1 </td><td> 16 </td><td> 117 </td><td> 1 </td></tr></tbody></table><table><thead><tr><th> 2001 Dolphins </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> TDs </th><th> Yards per game </th><th> Rec </th><th> Rec yards </th><th> Rec TDs </th></tr></thead> <tbody><tr class="last"><td> Lamar Smith </td><td> 313.0 </td><td> 968 </td><td> 6 </td><td> 60.5 </td><td> 30 </td><td> 234 </td><td> 2 </td></tr> <tr class="last"><td> Travis Minor (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=2633')) </td><td> 59.0 </td><td> 281 </td><td> 2 </td><td> 17.6 </td><td> 29 </td><td> 263 </td><td> 1 </td></tr></tbody></table><table><thead><tr><th> 2008 Chiefs </th><th> Rushes </th><th> Yards </th><th> TDs </th><th> Yards per game </th><th> Rec </th><th> Rec yards </th><th> Rec TDs </th></tr></thead> <tbody><tr class="last"><td> Larry Johnson (javascript:newWin('http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/fantasy?playerId=4485')) </td><td> 193.0 </td><td> 874 </td><td> 5 </td><td> 72.8 </td><td> 12 </td><td> 74 </td><td> 0 </td></tr> <tr class="last"><td> Jamaal Charles </td><td> 67.0 </td><td> 357 </td><td> 0 </td><td> 22.3 </td><td> 27 </td><td> 272 </td><td> 1



</td></tr> </tbody></table>

Two things jump out. First, there's no time-share here. At all. Obviously, you have an Emmitt Smith, he's your workhorse. But you can't tell me Lamar Smith is some amazing talent that had to have 300 touches. Gainey's MO has been that one guy carries the majority of the load. Spiller is not built to be that kind of guy.


Second, notice how many receptions the second guy gets in each case despite not being on the field nearly as much. Some of that is dictated by the skill level of both runners at catching passes, but still. Even though Jackson is a very good pass-catcher (further underscoring him as the guy in this offense), Spiller will see a good many balls. Both are talented, but Jackson will represent the far better fantasy value this year.


http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10tmrlovehate

[TMu11]

I don't think that the past will dictate what Gailey plans on doing with the Bills this year. He has a 3 headed running threat and would be stupid not to use it to his advantage. I highly doubt you will see the same trend continue.

[BertSquirtgum]

i think whoever wrote this is wrong.

[trapezeus]

i think it's an interesting find in historical stats. gailey isn't exactly a spring chicken. he probably follows his tendenacies without even knowing it.

it makes a lot of sense because it gives spiller a chance to learn throughout the year but remain a homerun threat. it gives the backfield more room to split between lynch and jackson.

it might be the best way to get all 3 on the field regularly.

[psubills62]

I saw that today and it made me think, but here's a question I'd have for Matthew Berry (the guy who wrote that): how many of those 2nd-string RB's did Gailey choose in the first round of the draft prior to that year? The answer would be none.

There's a reason Gailey and co. picked Spiller so early and so quickly (Don't even know if Goodell was done reading Rolando McClain's name before Spiller was selected). I think Berry dismisses Spiller's workhorse capabilities too quickly. He's not physically built like most workhorse RB's, but Spiller can handle 15-20 touches per game easily. Spiller is also much more talented than Jackson (though I love what Jackson brings to this team).

[madness]

Lynch fits the workhorse profile more than Jackson and has the most limited skill set between the three. I still think Gailey wants Lynch to return to form and be the primary ball carrier while he uses Jackson and Spiller to create mismatches elsewhere on the field.

[k-oneputt]

Gailey didn't draft Spiller to give him a dozen touches a game. Jackson and Lynch are the old regime, Spiller is the guy.

[justasportsfan]

Gailey didn't draft Spiller to give him a dozen touches a game.

In his rookie year, I expect that much only.

Pound and soften up defenses with Lynch and Jackson and then send in the homerun hitter in Spiller.

[Mr. Pink]

Jackson will get about 20 touches per game.

Spiller 10.

Lynch 2.

[k-oneputt]

Jackson will get about 20 touches per game.

Spiller 10.

Lynch 2.

So you are saying one of the worst teams in the league wasted another top-12 draft pick on a player with minimal production ? No. Dick and his band of idiots are gone. This guy will be used.

[Mr. Pink]

So you are saying one of the worst teams in the league wasted another top-12 draft pick on a player with minimal production ? No. Dick and his band of idiots are gone. This guy will be used.

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

[EDS]

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

I don't think Spiller's build is what will limit him - Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson are the same size. That said, for every smallish back like Charles or Johnson that emerges as a workhorse back there are plenty that do not become more than change of pace backs (i.e., Reggie Bush, Leon Washington, etc.).

If he is tough enough and the system is designed to utilize his talents he can be a 1000+ yard back early in his career. Whether he gets that chance with Jackson and Lynch on the roster remains to be seen.

I would not be surprised to see Spiller lined up in the slot on passing downs.

[dasaybz]

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

Abso****inglutely no way. Comparing Spiller to Metcalf is ****ing idiotic.

Bush was supposed to be a workhorse coming out of college, he's too much of a pussy and doesn't run inside.

Spiller is a beast and will run up the gut. This dude isn't small, why do people think he's some 3rd down back that will be a full time kick and punt returner? This dude is legit and is going to touch the ball a ton. His carries may be limited this year, but next year and the years after that, I will almost guarantee you that he will be a 300 carry back.

[Beebe's Kid]

Abso****inglutely no way. Comparing Spiller to Metcalf is ****ing idiotic.

Bush was supposed to be a workhorse coming out of college, he's too much of a pussy and doesn't run inside.

Spiller is a beast and will run up the gut. This dude isn't small, why do people think he's some 3rd down back that will be a full time kick and punt returner? This dude is legit and is going to touch the ball a ton. His carries may be limited this year, but next year and the years after that, I will almost guarantee you that he will be a 300 carry back.

Well said.

Where the **** does the idea come from that Spiller is some 12 touch per game back. If Spiller has 12 touches that is only because he busted of a few 30+ yarders.

I know the negative-****-attitude is a result of the last ten years, blah blah ****ing blah.... but these guys drafted a top tier talent that will be giving even the negative *****s little boners by the 4th week of this season.

[ParanoidAndroid]

I can tell you one thing. This offense will finally be able to run a screen.... both over the top and jailbreak. Spiller will scare defenses in that regard.

[k-oneputt]

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.

So they used the 10th pick to touch the ball a dozen times ????? If so, they are almost as stupid as Jaroun then. Not happening.

[justasportsfan]

spiller will not get 20 runs / game because he will be used both in the pass and kick returns. Plus we also have capable runners in Jackson and Lynch

[elltrain22]

I honestly see our backfield being reminiscent of the Baltimore Ravens backfield. Fred Jackson is our Ray Rice, who will majority of carries. CJ Spiller is the homerun hitter like Willis McGAYhee is, while Marshawn Lynch turns into a great goal line option like LeRon McClain.

[YardRat]

I think FTY is spot-on. If Spiller becomes a reliable and healthy workhorse, I'd be very surprised.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Gailey didn't draft Spiller to give him a dozen touches a game. Jackson and Lynch are the old regime, Spiller is the guy.
Actually I think that is Exactly why he was drafted, for this year at least. I can't see Spiller being the every down back right out of the gate.

[THATHURMANATOR]

Spiller is not a guy who's designed to be a workhorse.

He's a guy in the mold of Eric Metcalf and Reggie Bush.

He'll get up to a dozen touches per game to try and make something happen, not including if he gets punt return or kick return duties.
Heres to hoping he is more of a Chris Johnson than those two above.

[hydro]

There is no way in hell Spiller becomes a 300+ carry per year runningback. I just don't see it. There are barely in the league anymore anyway. Most of the teams have moved to a predominately two running back system to even the load.

[THATHURMANATOR]

There is no way in hell Spiller becomes a 300+ carry per year runningback. I just don't see it. There are barely in the league anymore anyway. Most of the teams have moved to a predominately two running back system to even the load.
Agreed but I could easily see him as more than a 12 touch a game guy that FTY has suggested. He is small but not frail like a Metcalf or Bush.

[hydro]

Agreed but I could easily see him as more than a 12 touch a game guy that FTY has suggested. He is small but not frail like a Metcalf or Bush.

With us having three RBs right now I can see it. But not for Spiller's entire career.

[THATHURMANATOR]

With us having three RBs right now I can see it. But not for Spiller's entire career.
I meant going forward. For this year in particular it is exactly what I see.

[trapezeus]

if we are talking this year, i see spiller getting 8-10 touches out of the backfield, set up in the slot a handful of 3rd downs and then return a couple punts and KO's.

It really makes sense to slowly push spiller into the starting role. This lets jackson and lynch split runs. and if lynch craps the bed, spiller gets a bigger role. if he doesn't, then we can mix and match these guys however we want based on what defenses can defend.

these three guys together, should be able to help stop stacking the box.

[malvado78]

I honestly see our backfield being reminiscent of the Baltimore Ravens backfield. Fred Jackson is our Ray Rice, who will majority of carries. CJ Spiller is the homerun hitter like Willis McGAYhee is, while Marshawn Lynch turns into a great goal line option like LeRon McClain.

When did Mcgahee become a homerun type RB? Here are his long cariess last year for each game:
WK Long
1 16
2 13
3 34
4 5
5 -2
6 5
7 Bye
8 1
9 DNP
10 7
11 16
12 6
13 1
14 19
15 8
16 15
17 77

2 runs over 30 yards. They had actually started Macgahee instead of Mcclain at goal line. McGahee is not a home run type RB.

I hope Spiller becomes a Chirs Johnson/Ray Rice type.

I pray that he does no turn into a McGahee...

[madness]

I pray that he doesn't turn into a dick like McGahee...

[Pinkerton Security]

Abso****inglutely no way. Comparing Spiller to Metcalf is ****ing idiotic.

Bush was supposed to be a workhorse coming out of college, he's too much of a pussy and doesn't run inside.

Spiller is a beast and will run up the gut. This dude isn't small, why do people think he's some 3rd down back that will be a full time kick and punt returner? This dude is legit and is going to touch the ball a ton. His carries may be limited this year, but next year and the years after that, I will almost guarantee you that he will be a 300 carry back.

Reggie Bush is actually bigger than Spiller and Bush also ran inside in college, only because the LBs and whatnot couldnt touch him in college. However, many people believed he was more of a situational NFL back, including myself. I argued with many people that he didnt have the physicality to be an every-down back in the NFL. And surprise surprise, he got to the pros and everyone was faster and he, as you said, became a pussy and wouldnt run inside.

Spiller has to first prove that he will run inside in the NFL...if he can do that, then yes he may be a 300 carry back ala Chris Johnson as opposed to a b**** like Bush. And you're right, size doenst matter...its all about your mental and physical toughness, and lets hope Spiller has that.

[THATHURMANATOR]

When did Mcgahee become a homerun type RB? Here are his long cariess last year for each game:
WK Long
1 16
2 13
3 34
4 5
5 -2
6 5
7 Bye
8 1
9 DNP
10 7
11 16
12 6
13 1
14 19
15 8
16 15
17 77

2 runs over 30 yards. They had actually started Macgahee instead of Mcclain at goal line. McGahee is not a home run type RB.

I hope Spiller becomes a Chirs Johnson/Ray Rice type.

I pray that he does no turn into a McGahee...
Seriously McGahee is really more of a short yardage/Goaline back at this point.

[Johnny Bugmenot]

He's not physically built like most workhorse RB's, but Spiller can handle 15-20 touches per game easily. How do you know this? He hasn't faced a 16-game season yet.

[psubills62]

How do you know this? He hasn't faced a 16-game season yet.

He played 14 games his senior season with just over 20 touches per game (that includes PR's and KR's). It was 18 touches per game without including returns.

If he got the same number of touches (252) over a 16 game season instead of a 14 game season, that comes out to 15.75 touches per game.

I'd say it's a reasonable assumption.

[k-oneputt]

If he can't handle 15-20 touches {which he can} a game, then he was a terrible pick at #9 then.

[justasportsfan]

If he can't handle 15-20 touches {which he can} a game, then he was a terrible pick at #9 then.

I'm sure he can handle 15-20 but I don't expect the coaches to make him do so.

[Mr. Pink]

If he can't handle 15-20 touches {which he can} a game, then he was a terrible pick at #9 then.


So was Eric Metcalf or Reggie Bush terrible picks?

Both were/are dynamic game changing players.

I have no problem if Spiller develops into a game changing dynamic player who doesn't touch the ball 20+ times a game, I don't know why anyone else would.

We already have two backs on the roster who have proven they can touch the ball 20+ times a game anyways.

[THATHURMANATOR]

So was Eric Metcalf or Reggie Bush terrible picks?

Both were/are dynamic game changing players.

I have no problem if Spiller develops into a game changing dynamic player who doesn't touch the ball 20+ times a game, I don't know why anyone else would.

We already have two backs on the roster who have proven they can touch the ball 20+ times a game anyways.
I would be dissapointed if Spiller was no more than a Reggie Bush or Eric Metcalf type player. Neither really excited me all that much, especially at selection #9 when we did have many other needs. For the spiller pick to be a success he needs to be a a 15 to 20 carry guy in this league.

[better days]

Agreed but I could easily see him as more than a 12 touch a game guy that FTY has suggested. He is small but not frail like a Metcalf or Bush.

He may not get more than 12 carries/game this year, but I think he will get many more than 12 touches.

[THATHURMANATOR]

He may not get more than 12 carries/game this year, but I think he will get many more than 12 touches.
Who is to say at this point? I have no clue how they will be working this year.

[better days]

Who is to say at this point? I have no clue how they will be working this year.

Nobody can say anything at this point about anything the Bills will do but I see Spiller as a Percy Harvin type player & I think Chan will use him as such (at least I hope so).