Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: Currently going two rounds later than C.J. Spiller, I said it on our podcast and I will say it here: Fred Jackson will be the best fantasy running back in Buffalo this year. Did you know he was actually the 16th best fantasy running back last year? He'll get the majority of touches compared to Spiller (who is more of a home run threat). ESPN researcher Gregory Found, of Matt Forte entry fame, also looked at running backs under new Bills coach Chan Gailey for me.
Check out these stats:
Running backs under Chan Gailey
Two things jump out. First, there's no time-share here. At all. Obviously, you have an Emmitt Smith, he's your workhorse. But you can't tell me Lamar Smith is some amazing talent that had to have 300 touches. Gainey's MO has been that one guy carries the majority of the load. Spiller is not built to be that kind of guy.
Second, notice how many receptions the second guy gets in each case despite not being on the field nearly as much. Some of that is dictated by the skill level of both runners at catching passes, but still. Even though Jackson is a very good pass-catcher (further underscoring him as the guy in this offense), Spiller will see a good many balls. Both are talented, but Jackson will represent the far better fantasy value this year.
Check out these stats:
Running backs under Chan Gailey
1998 Cowboys | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Yards per game | Rec | Rec yards | Rec TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emmitt Smith | 319.0 | 1332 | 13 | 83.3 | 27 | 175 | 2 |
Sherman Williams | 64.0 | 220 | 1 | 13.8 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
1999 Cowboys | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Yards per game | Rec | Rec yards | Rec TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emmitt Smith | 329.0 | 1397 | 11 | 93.1 | 27 | 119 | 2 |
Chris Warren | 99.0 | 403 | 2 | 25.2 | 34 | 224 | 0 |
2000 Dolphins | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Yards per game | Rec | Rec yards | Rec TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lamar Smith | 309.0 | 1139 | 14 | 75.9 | 31 | 201 | 2 |
Thurman Thomas | 28.0 | 136 | 0 | 15.1 | 16 | 117 | 1 |
2001 Dolphins | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Yards per game | Rec | Rec yards | Rec TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lamar Smith | 313.0 | 968 | 6 | 60.5 | 30 | 234 | 2 |
Travis Minor | 59.0 | 281 | 2 | 17.6 | 29 | 263 | 1 |
2008 Chiefs | Rushes | Yards | TDs | Yards per game | Rec | Rec yards | Rec TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Larry Johnson | 193.0 | 874 | 5 | 72.8 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
Jamaal Charles | 67.0 | 357 | 0 | 22.3 | 27 | 272 | 1 |
Two things jump out. First, there's no time-share here. At all. Obviously, you have an Emmitt Smith, he's your workhorse. But you can't tell me Lamar Smith is some amazing talent that had to have 300 touches. Gainey's MO has been that one guy carries the majority of the load. Spiller is not built to be that kind of guy.
Second, notice how many receptions the second guy gets in each case despite not being on the field nearly as much. Some of that is dictated by the skill level of both runners at catching passes, but still. Even though Jackson is a very good pass-catcher (further underscoring him as the guy in this offense), Spiller will see a good many balls. Both are talented, but Jackson will represent the far better fantasy value this year.
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