Projecting Spiller

[The Spaz]

One very dedicated NFL fan has taken the time to look over the contracts of the first round picks taken over the last three years and has subsequently projected what each of the first round draft choices will likely sign for this year in terms of guaranteed money.

On the website pigskinology, which is self described as ’Where football, economics and mad science meet,’ the projections for guaranteed money along with an explanation as to how the numbers were reached is listed. Seeing that Dez Bryant was projected to get $8.174M guaranteed and according to reports got $8.3M, I’d say they’re pretty close to being on the money with these projections, no pun intended.

For what it’s worth C.J. Spiller is forecast to land close to $21 million in guaranteed money ($20,712,039.94). Gotta love how they’ve got it down to the cents.

http://blogs.buffalobills.com/2010/07/23/projecting-spiller/

[STRONG_BAD]

Re: Projecting Spiller

One nice thing about drafting Spiller so high is he shouldn't be complaining about his contract after 2 years

[psubills62]

Re: Projecting Spiller

$20,712,039.94

I think Spiller should hold out for the extra 6 cents to make it an even dollar amount.

[justasportsfan]

Re: Projecting Spiller

I think Spiller should take less that way his agent gets a smaller cut.

[feldspar]

Re: Projecting Spiller

If we are going to guarantee him $20.7 million, he'd better be a special player. I have no problem screaming at him now, if need be, because I actually spend a large chunk of my money every time I watch the Bills...not to mention the crazy emotional investment.

[trapezeus]

Re: Projecting Spiller

i'd love to see the figures they use on projecting the picks. i am guessing the model they run uses about 5-10 key factors. And then from the 2 or 3 assumptions they make, the figure comes out to a hyper specific number.

It does seem like they have it figured out pretty good. i would guess you have to guess what the cap goes up by each year, then divide it into the rookie salary cap, then put some small inflation on each year and wah-la you have your 2010 salaries predicted.

[psubills62]

Re: Projecting Spiller

i'd love to see the figures they use on projecting the picks. i am guessing the model they run uses about 5-10 key factors. And then from the 2 or 3 assumptions they make, the figure comes out to a hyper specific number.

It does seem like they have it figured out pretty good. i would guess you have to guess what the cap goes up by each year, then divide it into the rookie salary cap, then put some small inflation on each year and wah-la you have your 2010 salaries predicted.

It would also be pretty simple to just use a regression analysis to find the percent raise from one year to the next for the last 10 years or so. Should be able to estimate the % increase this year for each pick. 8.2 vs. 8.3 is a good estimate, but how easy is that to predict? I'd bet we could get within 5% quickly.

Not to mention this prediction stuff will hopefully become extinct when a rookie pay scale is laid out in the next CBA.