The world of "Dangerous" Forecasting

[trapezeus]

Ok, to have some fun with preseason numbers.

The bills are 2-1 which is .667 win percentage. which forecasts to an 10 to 11 win season.

CJ Spiller has 3 touchdowns in 2 games, but really only played a half each game, so let's just assume he would have kept up his production in both games and scored 2 TD and 4 TD in the two games. That would mean he should score 32 TD in a single season. Not bad. I'll take that

[psubills62]

Ok, to have some fun with preseason numbers.

The bills are 2-1 which is .667 win percentage. which forecasts to an 10 to 11 win season.

CJ Spiller has 3 touchdowns in 2 games, but really only played a half each game, so let's just assume he would have kept up his production in both games and scored 2 TD and 4 TD in the two games. That would mean he should score 32 TD in a single season. Not bad. I'll take that

I knew I should have drafted him in fantasy.

[ddaryl]

Of course this assumes CJ does not get better as the season goes on..

I'm predicting a 50 TD season for Spiller.

[trapezeus]

Of course this assumes CJ does not get better as the season goes on..

I'm predicting a 50 TD season for Spiller.

i should have added that to the forecast...he will get better as the season rolls on.

[THRILLHO]

And I havent wont the lottery yet, so I must be due. Right?

[VeggieMan14]

Of course this assumes CJ does not get better as the season goes on..

I'm predicting a 50 TD season for Spiller. thats definately a fair assumption :gobills:

[cocamide]

And I havent wont the lottery yet, so I must be due. Right?

That's not how the math here works. We're only extrapolating. Since you haven't won, you'll never win.

Based on Evans's 70 touchdown, he's going to have 16 catches this season for 1120 yards. The greatest YPC ever!

[trapezeus]

that's hilarious on evans. i'll go with it. i say we somehow float this figure into fantasy drafts aroudn the country. Throw off people's drafts.

We'll give you a pen name and a back story that says you are an insider and just know this to be fact. much like most of Yahoo's and CNNsi.com's writing staff. and watch news watchers instead of game watchers destroy their fantasy draft.

[Mahdi]

Of course this assumes CJ does not get better as the season goes on..

I'm predicting a 50 TD season for Spiller.
39 of which will be over 50 yards.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Forecasting is risky business. You have to take every single aspect of each game into account. For example, Who did we play against? how long did their starters play? Were they showcasing or playing vanilla? are they naturally just bad in the preseason or are they signifying something is wrong with their team? The list of questions is a long one. Indianapolis is usually not that good in preseason, yet they are usually playoff bound every season. The Patriots are the same way. On the other side of that spectrum, Detroit over the last few years have been pretty good in preseason, then the season starts and they disappear. The same thing happens to the Raiders just about every year.

Here is a way you can look at this hypothesis or what ever you want to call it. The bad teams from the season before usually go into a preseason with something to prove, so preseason games are played with an emphasis on winning. The good teams from the season before usually are trying to retrofit. Wins and losses are not as big of a deal as trying to find the one or 2 new guys who will add to what made them successful the year before. That is why reading too much into a preseason can be misleading, and more often than not gives off the wrong impression of where a team may be heading when the season finally gets under way. JMO

[k-oneputt]

If Spiller stays healthy and the coaching staff doesn't get stupid and limit his touches, there is no reason he can't run for a 1,000 yds, 40 catches, and a dozen td's.

[trapezeus]

39 of which will be over 50 yards.

better make sure the bike is tuned up on the sideline. the man is going to be doing some serious cardio with that many long runs.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Since this post doesn't really deserve its own thread in my opinion, and it's relevance to the topic in this thread is closer than any other how ever slight, I wouldn't be surprised to see Spiller catching a lot of passes out of a Wildcat formation with Fred Jackson moving up to QB and Edwards split out wide. We may see a lot of those kinds of setups from Gailey. We may even see Jackson, Lynch, and Spiller in the same backfield on some plays. Gailey has mentioned it as a possibility. What kind of formations can you run with a 3 back set is my question? I don't recall ever seeing that.