Your the GM...

[Beebe's Kid]

Amongst the 2.5 million "realist" arguments in the Zone, a common theme is that the FO didn't address our needs. Fair enough.

These arguments claim to be "based on facts" and if you dare say the FO did an admirable job, and we are better than advertised, you are the "ray rah go Bills" homer.

My question is what moves would you have done differently. I am not being a smartass, totally serious.

I know it will be hard to say you wouldn't have taken Spiller, but many said that in April. You can't say it now, he has shown glimpses of what he is, so you can be wrong.

I'd prefer not a lot of slamming but anshort explanation of what moves you may have made. It wod be nice if you want to defend/object any player movements made, if it could be a better argument than "he sucks."

Unfortunately I am on my phone, so this has been a challenge to type. I will offer my opinion when I get to my computer.

[Novacane]

I can't say I would have done anything differantly. We don't know how the moves they made/did not make are going to pan out.

[OpIv37]

Amongst the 2.5 million "realist" arguments in the Zone, a common theme is that the FO didn't address our needs. Fair enough.

These arguments claim to be "based on facts" and if you dare say the FO did an admirable job, and we are better than advertised, you are the "ray rah go Bills" homer.

My question is what moves would you have done differently. I am not being a smartass, totally serious.

I know it will be hard to say you wouldn't have taken Spiller, but many said that in April. You can't say it now, he has shown glimpses of what he is, so you can be wrong.

I'd prefer not a lot of slamming but anshort explanation of what moves you may have made. It wod be nice if you want to defend/object any player movements made, if it could be a better argument than "he sucks."

Unfortunately I am on my phone, so this has been a challenge to type. I will offer my opinion when I get to my computer.

Unfortunately, I am not an NFL GM. I have a full time job unrelated to football and other responsibilities in life. So I can't sit here and say what they should have done with any degree of certainty. But it is their job to know and their job to figure it out.

Think about this: our opponents never have problems filling holes. Yet, when it comes to the Bills, "there was no one available" always seems to be a legitimate excuse. Why is that? Going into this off-season, we had glaring holes at QB, WR, OT, NT, and 3-4 LB. Now, I already gave them a pass on QB because there truly was no one available. But that still leaves 4 major positions that were not addressed properly- we just added some aging vets with 3-4 experience as mentors.

You mean to tell me that there was no one available in ANY of those other 4 positions that would have improved this team? I'm not buying it. I know asking for filling all 5 of those positions satisfactorily in one off-season is too much, but we could have done better in at least one or two of them.

As of right now, we are better than last year at RB and.... RB. I know we're rebuilding and it's going to take time to plug all the holes, but we need to do it at a rate faster than one position a year.

[Ingtar33]

1) Hire a true personnel man... I probably would have paid Polian's kid, Chris Polian, whatever it took to get him out of Indy; you read that right... ANYTHING... there is no salary cap on personnel men... (He been groomed for years to take over for his father, is being paid like a gm, and basically is running the show for BP in Indy the last few years)

2) Hire a real football coach... I like Gailey as an OC; I’m not thrilled with him at HC. I might be wrong about this, but I don't see it as a significant upgrade over Fewell.

3) Trade or cut marshawn lynch

4) Draft OTs in rounds 1 and 2, then all defense the rest of the draft (front 7)...

5) Sign an OT & WR in free agency...

6) Trade for Donavan McNabb, or well... anyone... there were a number of stopgaps or vet QBs looking for work this past offseason... Hell Jeff Garcia would have been fine.

-> You have to lay a foundation with the disaster that was made of the team the past few years. In short you need to rebuild the front 7 and o-line... then grab serviceable NFL quality players to compete at QB and WR. The idea is you never stop competing. I don't advocate blowing up your roster for a high draft pick. High draft picks are not sure things, and the main problem we have in buffalo is we have a culture of losing here. They don't have the mindset of winners. As a result we underachieve. You need to bring in the Vet QB and name head coach with a record of some success, to help change the culture; as it all flows from there.

The biggest problem we'll struggle with and have struggled with this past decade is we've not got the mindset of winners. We’re accustomed to losing. Until that culture changes we won't see better records then 7-9.

[yomommabilly]

If I am the GM ? Buy a bottle of scotch, get a good cigar and dance the Irish Jig all the while singing ' Kawika the punk is finally gone" I would also wish he complains about being on IR, considers it unfair and in two weeks gets OKd to play by an outside Dr. then demands a trade. Lord, I would take an extra cheerleader for the man. Ding Dong Kawikas gone.

[Mr. Pink]

Couple different things...

One, RBs are a dime a dozen, it's been proven time and time again in the NFL. We as a franchise have drafted 3 RBs in the first round in the past 7 years. I draft Dez Bryant in Round 1. He's a playmaker and legitimate weapon opposite Lee Evans.

Round 2, instead of Troup, I take a risk that my coaching staff can motive Mt. Cody and keep him in game shape...to me, he's the perfect 3-4 NT.

I resign Josh Reed. So my WR corps looks like this Evans, Bryant, Reed, Johnson, Parrish.

I target Jason Campbell to play QB. I cut Edwards and Brohm. So I have Campbell, Fitz and a developmental prospect likely John Skelton.

For DE, I target Dwan Edwards and/or Cory Redding. My Dline likely looks like Williams/Cody/Edwards

LBers, I do whatever I can to lure Joey Porter. Veteran Leadership plus pass rush. Inside I likely go Poz/Mitchell. And then see if I can sign Jeanty to play the other outside spot. I hope Porter can tutor and motivate Maybin to become a force down the line.

Secondary? I make no changes.

O-line...Jamaal Brown went to the Skins for a 3rd. I see if the Saints give me the same deal. If not, I sign Flozell Adams as a stopgap and mentor to the younger guys. Oh yeah, I cut Kirk Chambers loose and resign Incognito.

RB...I'm fine with Jackson/Lynch. I take a late round flyer on Jonathan Dwyer.

TE...fine.

I feel all these moves are reasonable and well within the realm of possibility of being done. None of these moves are big and flashy, in fact my biggest move of the offseason is drafting Dez. I do however feel these moves better prepare me for the future and add some much needed toughness, grit and leadership.

[OpIv37]

Couple different things...

One, RBs are a dime a dozen, it's been proven time and time again in the NFL. We as a franchise have drafted 3 RBs in the first round in the past 7 years. I draft Dez Bryant in Round 1. He's a playmaker and legitimate weapon opposite Lee Evans.

Round 2, instead of Troup, I take a risk that my coaching staff can motive Mt. Cody and keep him in game shape...to me, he's the perfect 3-4 NT.

I resign Josh Reed. So my WR corps looks like this Evans, Bryant, Reed, Johnson, Parrish.

I target Jason Campbell to play QB. I cut Edwards and Brohm. So I have Campbell, Fitz and a developmental prospect likely John Skelton.

For DE, I target Dwan Edwards and/or Cory Redding. My Dline likely looks like Williams/Cody/Edwards

LBers, I do whatever I can to lure Joey Porter. Veteran Leadership plus pass rush. Inside I likely go Poz/Mitchell. And then see if I can sign Jeanty to play the other outside spot. I hope Porter can tutor and motivate Maybin to become a force down the line.

Secondary? I make no changes.

O-line...Jamaal Brown went to the Skins for a 3rd. I see if the Saints give me the same deal. If not, I sign Flozell Adams as a stopgap and mentor to the younger guys. Oh yeah, I cut Kirk Chambers loose and resign Incognito.

RB...I'm fine with Jackson/Lynch. I take a late round flyer on Jonathan Dwyer.

TE...fine.

I feel all these moves are reasonable and well within the realm of possibility of being done. None of these moves are big and flashy, in fact my biggest move of the offseason is drafting Dez. I do however feel these moves better prepare me for the future and add some much needed toughness, grit and leadership.

Don't like the Campbell part, but I like the rest of it.

Dez Bryant could have been had with a trade down as well, which isn't a bad thing.

[trapezeus]

Thanks Ingtar for your response. i liked it. my issues with some of them.

1. chris polian has been set up in Indy with everything he needs to succeed. his family has been there for like 10 years. i heard from a family friend close to the polians that Bill is staying on simply to get the team through the new CBA and then its chris' show to run.

While i would have loved to play the same move, i just don't know if there was a price that would have moved him. He'll always be Bill's kid until he wins it by himself. then he'll get respected as his own guy. it's best for him to do it with some of the pieces that are already set up for him.

2. it seemed like the bills had a hard time getting anyone to bite in January. college coachs and assistants were turning down the job. i think gailey was the best of what we could get. we have to wait and see how it pans out. luckily the bar was set so low that even with a worse WL record, we can still find good in him this year.

3. yep, i wish they took a 5th or whatever it was pre=draft. that could have been an extra lineman on the D or O. That's another body for injuries. i worry about the critical areas of this team when healthy. i'm too scared to even talk about if a major injury is there. all this knowing we took Bell and had a good simpson in the mix as well.

4. i buy nix' arguement that OL wasn't good at 9. the bills have done this for 9-10 years of picking positions we need instead of best players. and until spiller we had zero game changers. now we have 1. i would have liked more bodies to come in through free agency at OL and DL. not big names, but just bodies for depth.

5. housh seemed ideal at the cost when he was released. they did bring in jackson and he didn't make the cut. nelson seems to have stepped up.

6. mcnabb said he didn't want to come here, and garcia has only been good on good teams. when put on cleveland with no support, he almost got run out of the league. now he's well into his 30's. i'm fine with asking trent to play for his life. if he fails, we have a top pick in the draft. no use in getting an aged qb who wins enough to not let us get that QB we want.

conclusion - i think you are right. you need to have an OL and DL to win. but those positions from the braintrust just weren't there in the draft. and the trade up with a potentially bad season for a mcneill doesn't make sense. I think if your mindset that this season most likely won't be a good one, then what they did so far makes sense. if you want to win this year (and that being defined as just getting to the playoffs), then you had to follow Ingtar's
gameplan.

but rightfully i think the bills are taking a slower approach to try and build a contender. it's going to take some time to wash off the levy/brandon/jauron stank.

[BlackMetalNinja]

Seriously... how has this thread gone this many posts and nobody has said this:

You're

[Mr. Pink]

Don't like the Campbell part, but I like the rest of it.

Dez Bryant could have been had with a trade down as well, which isn't a bad thing.


Well, you could go with the veteran stopgap QB as well...Delhomme, Bulger or as Ingtar suggested, Garcia. However if you bring in Garcia then the coach better be willing to go to the west coast offense or else Garcia is wasted.

I'd try to move down a few spots and pick up some extra picks but if I have no takers, I have no issue taking Bryant where I sit.

[Ingtar33]

-I wasn't talking about value... personally I think need sets value.

If I have 5 NFL quality RBs, I have no need for one more, no matter how good. If your Team NEEDs an OT, and you have Payton Manning at QB, the best player on the board is a QB, you don't draft the ****** QB.

It's that simple.

Drafting BPA is how the lions ended up with 3 straight years taking WR no.1

We're the ****** Detroit Lions right now... 3 rbs in round 1 in the last decade? You’ve got to be kidding me. The best rb we've had in the last decade was grabbed in round 2.

How many round 1 OT’s in the last decade? 1
How many round 1 o-linemen total? 2
How many round 1 d-linemen? 1.5
How many round 1 linebackers? 0.5
How many round 1 quarterbacks? 1

(maybin is the classic tweener, and so i counted him as half a dl/ half a lb)

There is your problem, we've damn near drafted just as many rbs in round 1 over the last decade as we've drafted OL, QBs, DL, LB combined in round 1. You win in the trenches. And you win with a great qb. If you don't bother to try to draft any then you don't win.

It’s that simple.

[Mr. Pink]

-I wasn't talking about value... personally I think need sets value.

If I have 5 NFL quality RBs, I have no need for one more, no matter how good. If your Team NEEDs an OT, and you have Payton Manning at QB, the best player on the board is a QB, you don't draft the ****** QB.

It's that simple.

Drafting BPA is how the lions ended up with 3 straight years taking WR no.1

We're the ****** Detroit Lions right now... 3 rbs in round 1 in the last decade? You’ve got to be kidding me. The best rb we've had in the last decade was grabbed in round 2. How many round 1 OT’s in the last decade? 1 how many round 1 o-linemen, 2. How many round 1 d-linemen? 0. How many round 1 linebackers? 0. How many round 1 quarterbacks? 1. There is your problem, we've drafted just as many rbs in round 1 over the last decade as we've drafted OL, QBs, DL, LB combined in round 1. You win in the trenches. And you win with a great qb. If you don't bother to try to draft any then you don't win.

It’s that simple.


The problem was...where we were drafting the top 2 OTs were already off the board. So do you just go, well I can get the 3rd best OT in the draft here, so I might as well do it?

And then on the QB side...outside of Bradford there was no QB worth a round 1 pick. I don't care what Denver did, Tebow is not a 1st round caliber QB.

Or would you have preferred taking Jared Odrick to play the 5 technique?

[psubills62]

-I wasn't talking about value... personally I think need sets value.

If I have 5 NFL quality RBs, I have no need for one more, no matter how good. If your Team NEEDs an OT, and you have Payton Manning at QB, the best player on the board is a QB, you don't draft the ****** QB.

It's that simple.

Drafting BPA is how the lions ended up with 3 straight years taking WR no.1

We're the ****** Detroit Lions right now... 3 rbs in round 1 in the last decade? You’ve got to be kidding me. The best rb we've had in the last decade was grabbed in round 2.

How many round 1 OT’s in the last decade? 1
How many round 1 o-linemen total? 2
How many round 1 d-linemen? 0.5
How many round 1 linebackers? 0.5
How many round 1 quarterbacks? 1

(maybin is the classic tweener, and so i counted him as half a dl/ half a lb)

There is your problem, we've damn near drafted just as many rbs in round 1 over the last decade as we've drafted OL, QBs, DL, LB combined in round 1. You win in the trenches. And you win with a great qb. If you don't bother to try to draft any then you don't win.

It’s that simple.

Out of curiosity, are you not counting McCargo?

[Ingtar33]

The problem was...where we were drafting the top 2 OTs were already off the board. So do you just go, well I can get the 3rd best OT in the draft here, so I might as well do it?

And then on the QB side...outside of Bradford there was no QB worth a round 1 pick. I don't care what Denver did, Tebow is not a 1st round caliber QB.

Or would you have preferred taking Jared Odrick to play the 5 technique?

if you don't think any linemen on the board are worth the 9th pick over all you trade down... hell i promice you SD would have given up half their draft for spiller.

we didn't even talk to other teams about trading down... that pick was in almost as soon as goodell was done anouncing the raider's pick.

[Ingtar33]

Out of curiosity, are you not counting McCargo?


you're right... i forgot about mccargo/post editted

[Mr. Pink]

if you don't think any linemen on the board are worth the 9th pick over all you trade down... hell i promice you SD would have given up half their draft for spiller.

we didn't even talk to other teams about trading down... that pick was in almost as soon as goodell was done anouncing the raider's pick.


I agreed with trading down earlier in the thread, however in my scenario I was doing it because I was targeting Dez Bryant.

An argument can be made in an attempt to trade down and pick up extra picks, which extra picks are always a good thing for a team in rebuilding mode, to try and get Anthony Davis or Bulaga. Hell even Iupati or Pouncey for that matter. Or even Jared Odrick to play the nose if you wanted to go that direction.

I agree that you need to build the trenches and the QB spot to win in this league...mostly the QB. If you can find and above average QB, he goes a long way to make an average o-line look good. But like I said, there was no QB in this draft outside of Bradford worth really taking early.

[OpIv37]

you're right... i forgot about mccargo/post editted

given his complete irrelevance on the field, you're excused for forgetting about him.

[trapezeus]

isn't there a blend though between constantly picking BPA and picking a need position?

the bills strike me as so lacking talent that going BPA wasn't going to hurt. Now if you keep doing it and next year is a RB again, then you got problems. but i think for a shell of an NFL team, taking a high skill player isn't a bad pick.

[Mr. Pink]

given his complete irrelevance on the field, you're excused for forgetting about him.


I try forgetting him myself. So it's definitely understandable.

We STILL should have Ngata and Mangold on this roster and we then have the trenches pretty solid right now.

[Mr. Pink]

isn't there a blend though between constantly picking BPA and picking a need position?

the bills strike me as so lacking talent that going BPA wasn't going to hurt. Now if you keep doing it and next year is a RB again, then you got problems. but i think for a shell of an NFL team, taking a high skill player isn't a bad pick.


I agree, I just think if you're going skill player, then Dez Bryant was the better choice given what we had already at RB...that on top of that fact I don't think Lee Evans is a true number 1 and we had no other weapons than him in the passing game.

[madness]

Holy Narcissist Anonymous thread, Batman!

[OpIv37]

isn't there a blend though between constantly picking BPA and picking a need position?

the bills strike me as so lacking talent that going BPA wasn't going to hurt. Now if you keep doing it and next year is a RB again, then you got problems. but i think for a shell of an NFL team, taking a high skill player isn't a bad pick.

If the last decade has taught you anything, it should be that skill players are useless if you can't win battles in the trenches. As bad as the Bills have been the past decade, we've consistently had good RB's and good DB's. And we've generally had decent WR's- Moulds (at the end of his career), the first iteration of Peerless Price, Evans. It's gotten us nowhere.

[Mr. Pink]

If the last decade has taught you anything, it should be that skill players are useless if you can't win battles in the trenches. As bad as the Bills have been the past decade, we've consistently had good RB's and good DB's. And we've generally had decent WR's- Moulds (at the end of his career), the first iteration of Peerless Price, Evans. It's gotten us nowhere.


Yeah, but the team is in rebuilding mode and does lack playmakers.

Drafting one or two guys in the trenches this year wasn't going to turn this cluster of misfits into a contender. The point is building for the future.

If you think CJ Spiller is the next coming of say...Eric Dickerson/Barry Sanders...then yeah, you take him. BUT, you better lock him up long term after his rookie contract is done and you also better hope your scouting department got it right and you didn't get the next Reggie Bush.

The ultimate goal is to assemble the best possible talent you can, so when you fit in the pieces you have a collection of talent who can bring you to the next level.

The problem is with most of these guys, it's a revolving door. Oh look, we drafted "you" and "you" got good but we do not want to pay "you" anymore. So we're just gonna spin our wheels and go out and draft your replacement!

"you" could be any number of guys...Winfield, Clements, McGahee.

[trapezeus]

agreed, however, i just think the bills are looking at a realy 3 year plan. jauron's 3 year plan was done under this guise of, "we're close. we just need a couple pieces." That's 100% not true.

we are very far away. put the pieces together over a couple years. a qb from another team would be a waste of money. Trent is under contract for cheap this year. he's played well at times, and if he isn't the man, it'll move us down in the draft. which is what we need.

Personally i don't think Bell is fit enough as an LT. but again, he's dirt cheap for the year. So they went DL in rounds 2 and 3. hopefully they hit on both of these guys.

i just don't think it's that awful ifyou have tempered expectations this year. i'dlove for a magical run, but i'm ok with growing pains if it means we actually are seeing overall improvement.

[X-Era]

The entire teams fortunes will turn around now with the addition of a franchise QB. The other pieces will be added along the way. But without that QB, the story is over before it starts. Its a Quarterback driven league.

I'm starting to believe in Gailey. But, if Trent doesn't show he's the guy this year, the next 5 years will depend on who we replace him with next off season.

[justasportsfan]

One, RBs are a dime a dozen, it's been proven time and time again in the NFL. We as a franchise have drafted 3 RBs in the first round in the past 7 years. .

What have those dime a dozen rb's done for us over the years?


Is Spiller a dime a dozen type of rb?

[Ingtar33]

isn't there a blend though between constantly picking BPA and picking a need position?

the bills strike me as so lacking talent that going BPA wasn't going to hurt. Now if you keep doing it and next year is a RB again, then you got problems. but i think for a shell of an NFL team, taking a high skill player isn't a bad pick.


you're trying to talk yourself into liking the spiller pick.

don't get me wrong... spiller looked fantastic in preseason, and if he's that dominant in the regular season we might end up praising the pick for years to come if he stays healthy... that would be a best case scenario....

but I’m not going to alter my belief that you take what your needs are in the draft.


NEED determines VALUE... if I have a huge need for a QB, it places a premium on the QBs in the draft... and all of their VALUE goes up to me in the draft.

If I have no need for a QB because I have Payton Manning at QB (who has never missed a game to injury, and probably will play 6 more years), then there is NO VALUE in taking a QB in round 1 even if he is the BPA.

It's really quite simple... NEED dictates VALUE...

We had only limited NEED for a RB. In my end of season review I rated it a 3rd tier need at best. Unless you’re convinced that CJ Spiller is the next version of Barry Sanders, and a surefire hall of famer you don’t draft a Tier 3 need in round 1. Ever. Not when your front 7 and BOTH… that’s right BOTH OT positions and QB are all desperate needs.

That doesn’t mean I think there was a single QB in this draft other then Bradford worth a 1st round pick. Even with all of our need at the position there wasn’t anyone to take… but there were o-linemen, d-linemen, linebackers who were worth a round 1 pick… if not pick 9. we could have traded back and taken any number of players to help us improve.

[Mr. Pink]

What have those dime a dozen rb's done for us over the years?


Is Spiller a dime a dozen type of rb?


Spiller from what I've seen so far is the same type of player Eric Metcalf was as a rookie. Take that however you want to. He'll excel out in space when he can create and struggle when he's run up in between the tackles. He'll add value on returns and make some plays off screens.

All our dime a dozen RBs since Thurman have all been productive. What's the difference in what we got between Antowain Smith, Travis Henry, Willis McGahee, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson? Pretty much nothing, about equal production out of all of them.

All of them through a full season could bang out around 1200 yards, so basically what you need to see Spiller eventually do is bang out 1500 yards consistently to say he's more than what we already had. Do you think he's capable of that?

[trapezeus]

and the bills might get that franchise QB at a new rookie payscale. which means even if we miss we aren't saddled with $20-50MM in guarnatees on a dud. Which also means we might be able to sneak in a highly rated LT.

I wonder how much the bills have scouted out a year +. So last years draft they knew position availabilty for the 2011 draft as well. That would seem to be smart. but i don't know if its really possible.

[Mr. Pink]

and the bills might get that franchise QB at a new rookie payscale. which means even if we miss we aren't saddled with $20-50MM in guarnatees on a dud. Which also means we might be able to sneak in a highly rated LT.

I wonder how much the bills have scouted out a year +. So last years draft they knew position availabilty for the 2011 draft as well. That would seem to be smart. but i don't know if its really possible.


That doesn't always work either....

Look at what Jevan Sneads value was in 2009 as an example.

A guy you could be salivating over right now and thinking he's the next big thing could completely tank the season or get hurt.

There's no way to really scout for the 2011 draft in 2009, too many variables.

[OpIv37]

The problem is with most of these guys, it's a revolving door. Oh look, we drafted "you" and "you" got good but we do not want to pay "you" anymore. So we're just gonna spin our wheels and go out and draft your replacement!

"you" could be any number of guys...Winfield, Clements, McGahee.

Bingo.

This is the whole problem with our team. We engage in a slow rebuilding process, and we don't retain talent. Hence, we're chasing our proverbial tails.

Example: if Troup and Easley turn out to be good, we'll be set at NT and WR, but by that time, Florence and McGee will be washed up and we'll have to draft CB's and wait 2 years for them to be ready.

[trapezeus]

i don't mean scout for the actual player but do a comparison of the position of this year's class vs. next year.

obviously this was done for QB, but that's because there are so few QB's really considered. but did the bills look at OL and say, "there are more can't miss players in 2011. let's not screw ourselves with a 2010 guy."

[Mr. Pink]

i don't mean scout for the actual player but do a comparison of the position of this year's class vs. next year.

obviously this was done for QB, but that's because there are so few QB's really considered. but did the bills look at OL and say, "there are more can't miss players in 2011. let's not screw ourselves with a 2010 guy."


The very same thing could happen next year though...

I saw mocks leading up to the end of the season showing Claussen, McCoy, Bradford, Locker, and Tebow marginally all being Round 1 picks.

Locker obviously decided to stay in school and McCoy and Claussen fell.

So now say, hypothetically, Locker has a bad year and falls, Luck decides to stay in college, Mallet doesn't do much and Ponder lights it up.

Well then you're back in the same draft situation with the QBs that you were just in. The one consensus top QB is gone and the rest aren't worth first picks.

And this situation could play out year after year.

[Philagape]

Whether you draft need or BPA, you still need to draft the right players.

The Lions' failures at WR were because they drafted the wrong ones. I don't think they regret taking Calvin Johnson.

The Bills went strictly need several times and also failed: Whitner, McCargo, Maybin.

If you draft the right guys, either philosophy will work. If Spiller has a career here that he's billed to have, it's a brilliant pick.

[psubills62]

That doesn't always work either....

Look at what Jevan Sneads value was in 2009 as an example.

A guy you could be salivating over right now and thinking he's the next big thing could completely tank the season or get hurt.

There's no way to really scout for the 2011 draft in 2009, too many variables.

You can scout ahead of time. Teams just need to keep tabs on how the players are developing. A lot of these kids (Snead and Locker are two prime examples) are physical specimens, but their value depends a lot on how they progress as players. Snead's value dropped because when he was younger, it was expected that he'd progress over the next year or so, but he didn't. I have a feeling we'll see a drop in value with Locker - probably not quite as large as Snead's, but still a drop.

But then look at a guy like Sam Bradford - his value didn't drop from one year to the next, despite getting injured and barely playing in 2009. How come? Because he was already a polished passer who has the accuracy, has the smarts, and overall didn't need as much development as the physical specimens.

[psubills62]

Bingo.

This is the whole problem with our team. We engage in a slow rebuilding process, and we don't retain talent. Hence, we're chasing our proverbial tails.

Example: if Troup and Easley turn out to be good, we'll be set at NT and WR, but by that time, Florence and McGee will be washed up and we'll have to draft CB's and wait 2 years for them to be ready.

I don't think retaining is our primary problem. The Bills have shown the proclivity to lock guys up...it just usually ends up being the wrong guys. They've handed extensions to Schobel, McGee, Kelsay, Evans, Stroud, Kyle Williams, Brad Butler, even Parrish.

Somehow, when the Bills have tried to address certain positions, they almost always get it wrong.

I'm not sure who exactly is to blame for the early round whiffs, but I have a feeling it's partially on the scouts and partially on the coaches. Some of these guys have shown flashes, but at the same time none of them seem to improve beyond their rookie years.

Like I mentioned before, turnover isn't a bad thing as long as you have a talented core of players. The Ravens, Patriots, Colts, etc. lose players every year, but they tend to replace them easy enough. Why is that? Because they have a core of guys, generally led by a good to great QB, who are the focal point of the offense and defense. Most everyone else is replaceable or a role player.

[ddaryl]

1st year with a new coach and new GM is all about stripping the team down to its best working parts and then rebuilding it from there.

I expect to see some bolder type moves after this season and after we have an idea on who's who and what worked.


It owuld have been nice ot upgrade the OL, but then again there is lotsa to be said about devleoping your own.

Same goes for TE, QB, WR, DL and LB at this point. All could use upgrades but we also need to see hwat is functioning under the new regime and scheme.

My team building model would be to do it similiarly to what Nix has done.. He didn't go overboard and try to fit some high profile FAs into our team this year.. He is going to get a pulse on this team and then make the moves that make sense for the team moving forward....

and yes its painful becuase we've sucked for so long... but rush decisions and desperate moves would only keep us in a tailspin IMO.

[EDS]

you're right... i forgot about mccargo/post editted

No one blames you for forgetting about McCargo. In fact some of us are jealous that you have!

[Beebe's Kid]

Seriously... how has this thread gone this many posts and nobody has said this:

You're

Sorry Grammar-Nazi... I typed this on an iPhone, and it auto-corrected what I typed instead of adding the apostrophe, but this is the best contribution.

[El Guapo]

1st year with a new coach and new GM is all about stripping the team down to its best working parts and then rebuilding it from there.

I expect to see some bolder type moves after this season and after we have an idea on who's who and what worked.


It owuld have been nice ot upgrade the OL, but then again there is lotsa to be said about devleoping your own.

Same goes for TE, QB, WR, DL and LB at this point. All could use upgrades but we also need to see hwat is functioning under the new regime and scheme.

My team building model would be to do it similiarly to what Nix has done.. He didn't go overboard and try to fit some high profile FAs into our team this year.. He is going to get a pulse on this team and then make the moves that make sense for the team moving forward....

and yes its painful becuase we've sucked for so long... but rush decisions and desperate moves would only keep us in a tailspin IMO.

I agree. If you don't think every piece of video was scrutinized on every player on this team before the draft, you're crazy. And I'm not just talking about last year's games. This staff was beholden to no player prior to the draft, so I would suspect they did their homework and decided what players they felt were serviceable. This staff thinks there are pieces to the puzzle that are in place. Maybe not the final piece for its place, but a piece that can hold up until something better comes along. They may think the coaching held them back the last few years, or maybe it was injuries.

Look at the cluster ***** that was our offense the week of last year's opener. LT gone. OC gone. No huddle bull*****. Come on. Talent or no talent, that was a recipe for bad things, man. Bad things (like messing with Bruce Smith's shoes in his locker).

Then couple all that crap with the injuries throughout the season. I may get bit by saying this, as I have not looked into it, but with all of our starters who missed games last year, I doubt any team would be much better than 6 - 10.

We've had bad coaching and just bad luck (injuries). If these are mitigated, which I think they are, then we are a better team than last year. The injury bug we can't assume will be gone, but I think this staff is better suited to run this team than Skeletor's staff was.

We will see. I hope I am not drinking the Kool Aid. I just look at what happened last year and can't buy into the myth that this team is devoid of talent.

Give this staff a chance. I know it's hard considering the last ten years, but I think we may be a bit surprised.

[Hogwasher]

I would not have transitioned to a 3-4, at least not this year, because it eats a lot of draft picks and requires so much turnover. I would have drafted more offensive linemen. I wanted Hernandez in the fourth round. I would have traded Lynch.

But I liked the Spiller pick, Carrington, Calloway and Batten. I was wrong about Calloway.

I would not have gone out and gotten a qb until I had a line to protect him.

[Extremebillsfan247]

Amongst the 2.5 million "realist" arguments in the Zone, a common theme is that the FO didn't address our needs. Fair enough.

These arguments claim to be "based on facts" and if you dare say the FO did an admirable job, and we are better than advertised, you are the "ray rah go Bills" homer.

My question is what moves would you have done differently. I am not being a smartass, totally serious.

I know it will be hard to say you wouldn't have taken Spiller, but many said that in April. You can't say it now, he has shown glimpses of what he is, so you can be wrong.

I'd prefer not a lot of slamming but anshort explanation of what moves you may have made. It wod be nice if you want to defend/object any player movements made, if it could be a better argument than "he sucks."

Unfortunately I am on my phone, so this has been a challenge to type. I will offer my opinion when I get to my computer.

If I were the GM because of my lack of knowledge on what that job consists of other than what we know as fans, I would hire a consulting team to do all the work for me, sit back, and collect my paycheck. lol

[YardRat]

I'd still be working on prying McNeil out of San Diego, gone after a 'real' 34 OLB , and a blocking TE in FA.

[Beebe's Kid]

you're trying to talk yourself into liking the spiller pick.

don't get me wrong... spiller looked fantastic in preseason, and if he's that dominant in the regular season we might end up praising the pick for years to come if he stays healthy... that would be a best case scenario....

but I’m not going to alter my belief that you take what your needs are in the draft.


NEED determines VALUE... if I have a huge need for a QB, it places a premium on the QBs in the draft... and all of their VALUE goes up to me in the draft.

If I have no need for a QB because I have Payton Manning at QB (who has never missed a game to injury, and probably will play 6 more years), then there is NO VALUE in taking a QB in round 1 even if he is the BPA.

It's really quite simple... NEED dictates VALUE...

We had only limited NEED for a RB. In my end of season review I rated it a 3rd tier need at best. Unless you’re convinced that CJ Spiller is the next version of Barry Sanders, and a surefire hall of famer you don’t draft a Tier 3 need in round 1. Ever. Not when your front 7 and BOTH… that’s right BOTH OT positions and QB are all desperate needs.

That doesn’t mean I think there was a single QB in this draft other then Bradford worth a 1st round pick. Even with all of our need at the position there wasn’t anyone to take… but there were o-linemen, d-linemen, linebackers who were worth a round 1 pick… if not pick 9. we could have traded back and taken any number of players to help us improve.

Thanks for all of the input. I don't always agree with your assessments, but I respect your opinion. Same with Op even though I am just a "Ra Ra Homer!"

I have struggled with the BPA/Need argument for years. My take is right on with your "tier" system. If you don't think you have the second coming, you go another direction, preferably the one that is going to a hole, or a tier 1 need, the fastest.

I think you asses the contributions by position. I would rank each area in terms of production/expectation in my system, then take the BPA in one of my 3 lowest areas of production.

We are consistently picking in the top third of the draft, but never at the top. I think that by pick 5 or so, you start being able to justify the Need/BPA hybrid.

In regards to Spiller, I thought this when we drafted him, I think we got top 3 talent at the 9 slot. I am not usually a guy that would rank an RB that high, but I truly felt this kid was that special. He can catch, run, return, even throw if you need. The guy has Chris Johnson's rare ability to change games with one touch.

It was kind of ****ty that it had to be this year we were looking at that, because of the way last year ended. I don't think you could have watched a game and not hoped we went QB, or LT with the first pick. I certainly wouldn't have suggested RB, that seemed to be one are, secondary being the other, that we were alright at.

I liked our free agent signings. Cornell Green is the question mark, but I don't think there was a lot of choices. When Butler retired, I am sure there was more than one "Oh ****" in the FO that day.

I think our LB's will be better than most think, and I hope that our secondary can buy them the time they need to make a pass rush effective, also that the DL can tie up enough blockers to allow for some sacks. Time will tell. I am not crazy about losing Mitchell. I don't think he was the problem that many do. I felt he would have ended up contributing a ton to our D. I also like Poz, and think that with a little help he will finally be a superstar. That might not be this year, but I liked the Torbor/Davis/Edwards signings. they were all a step in improving our D. I know we all wanted the reincarnation of Bruce, but that wasn't available.

I agree with FTY (did I just say that?) about the WR, only I think I would have pushed to sign one or trade for one of the other names available.

There are good QB's with bad OL's, but rarely a good QB with bad WR's. I like Lee Evans, and think many detractors will like him after this season. He plays bigger than he is, and does not have to be exclusively a deep threat. I don't think anybody needs to tell Chan that, and we'll see Evans actually be given a chance to contribute and catch 90 balls.