NFL.com article on Captain Checkdown and how low AVG YPA can lose you games

[BillsWin]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81a88f3f/article/as-week-1-showed-theres-reward-in-risk-for-quarterbacks?module=HP_spotlight


Romo wasn't alone in Week 1. Matt Ryan (http://www.nfl.com/players/mattryan/profile?id=RYA238179) averaged 5.7, Matt Moore (http://www.nfl.com/players/mattmoore/profile?id=MOO551757) 5.5, Alex Smith 5.0, and Sam Bradford (http://www.nfl.com/players/sambradford/profile?id=BRA101548) 4.6. What did they all have in common? They all lost.
There were exceptions, however. Kansas City won despite Matt Cassel (http://www.nfl.com/players/mattcassel/profile?id=CAS541133)'s dismal 3.1 yards per attempt.
Chad Henne (http://www.nfl.com/players/chadhenne/profile?id=HEN507580) put up a very low 5.4 yards per attempt in a win at Buffalo. But it sure didn't hurt that his counterpart was Trent "Captain Checkdown" Edwards, who averaged a miniscule 4.1 yards despite not throwing any interceptions.
Despite the anomalies, yards per attempt predicts winners. Thirteen of the top 14 quarterbacks in yards per attempt had winning records last season, while one -- Manning -- was .500.
This is not to say that broadcasters discussion of other stats like passer rating aren't important, it's just that the yards/attempt stat is more under the radar while being every bit as relevant. Yards per attempt is one of four stats that make up passer rating, but unlike the latter, it doesn't assign any subjective value to a touchdown or an interception. It's all about yards gained or not gained -- an accurate depiction of how much bang for the buck a quarterback is getting every time he throws.



**** you Trent.

Put in Brohm. Put in Fitz. Re-sign Brown. I don't care. Do something.

[bills4ver]

totally agree, if we had a average QB against the fish last week we won that game no question.

Trent Edwards will NEVER take us anywhere and the sooner we move on the better. I almost wish we would release him and make a trade for someone.

[Turf]

The NFL has never been so boring. The games are abbreviated for TV and lack any character. Each team gets the ball a few times and the half is over. Its a ridiculous watered down product. Its not light beer, its Budd 55. And whenever there is a big play that draws fan reaction, you can bet a yellow flag will show up to suck the life out of the game. They may very well all be fixed at this point the way its called.

[Buffalogic]

Lee Evans PI and 3 straight holding calls come to mind.

[BertSquirtgum]

trent is worse than a stink bomb in a closed room.

[Ingtar33]

this isn't groundbreaking...

you can usually tell what team won a game just by looking at the statline for YPA... anything over 7.5 is usually a winning QB on any given sunday.

[OpIv37]

do we need a discussion on how YPA can lose football games? Just watch a replay of any game Trent Edwards has started and there's your discussion.

[Mahdi]

It is very simple why Trent has a low YPA.


I watch Trent pretty closely like most of us do waiting for him to finally let loose and make big plays. But for me, I don't think the offense needs him to throw deep passes that go for 40, 50 and 60 yards. Those passes are not the ones that effect defenses the most. For one they have a low success rate, and second, Qbs only throw it if they are presented with certain coverages.

Early in his career we all know Trent was relying heavily on short passes and giving his WRs and RBs the chance to turn it up for some yardage. The problem is he continued to do this and never evolved or progressed to the next phases of his development. Defenses caught on eventually and started taking away the first 10 yards of the field, the area he was consistently using. They did this mainly by flooding the zones with LBs. This is why Trent struggles against 3-4 defenses. They are more flexible and unpredictable and can deploy more athletes to drop into coverage in the short and flat areas. When Trent looks up all he sees is bodies everywhere. This confuses him and makes him trentative. Cleveland perfected the strategy on Monday Night Football. They barely rushed Trent at all often sending only 3 and dropping 4 or 5 in the short zone area. Trent was intercepted 3 times in the short area and the rest, if completed, were tackles at or around the LoS. I think Marshawn had a few receptions in that game for minimal yardage.

So what makes other QBs different?


What makes other QBs different, even the average ones, is not their ability to or willingness to throw long (40, 50, 60) it's their ability/willingness to throw over the LBs and in front of the safeties. Any QB will tell you that the toughest throws to complete are the ones that go over the heads of the LBs and in front of the safeties because of the amount of traffic for one and also because you give the Safeties an opportunity to drive on the football. These throws are often into tight spaces which is why they are called "windows."

Trent has not been able to find this area yet in his career. I can literally count on my hands how many times Trent finds his WRs in the windows that flash over the LBs and in front of the safeties. Defenses are well aware of this deficiency in Trent's game and have used it against him. Since they know he won't attempt it they creep to the LoS instead to take away his bread and butter.

For Trent to have a decent YPA he will have to exploit the spaces that defenses are giving him and attempt the tough throws. Short is not the answer and long is not either. When Trent throws the 15, 20 and 25 yard throws in these intermediate areas defenses will be forced to respect that and will have to back off. At this point however Trent is 1 dimensional and defending 1 dimension is much to easy for any DC worth anything.

Trent must stop fearing the deep slant, deep crosses and post patterns many NFL QBs thrive on in order to prove he belongs in this league.

[trapezeus]

The NFL has never been so boring. The games are abbreviated for TV and lack any character. Each team gets the ball a few times and the half is over. Its a ridiculous watered down product. Its not light beer, its Budd 55. And whenever there is a big play that draws fan reaction, you can bet a yellow flag will show up to suck the life out of the game. They may very well all be fixed at this point the way its called.

i sit next to an 84 year old guy at the games. he's real oldschool. has the old 1980's headphones plugged into a walkman. and in the middle of the second quarter he tapped my leg and said, "is it me, or is there no flow to this game?"

It was true, even if it had been mildly exciting, the game's pace was just sucked dry from commercial timeouts and such. Why they stopped play with Poz's injury when he was on the sideline is beyond me. just an excuse to show more commercials.

[Throne Logic]

I wonder how Drew Bledsoe stacked up with that STAT. He was one of the rare examples of throwing for a billion yards but having little to show for it.

[El Guapo]

I wonder how Drew Bledsoe stacked up with that STAT. He was one of the rare examples of throwing for a billion yards but having little to show for it.

Yeah, but I miss Drew....